Top climate story of 2008: Arctic sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2009

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The top climate story of 2008, as it was in 2007, was the extraordinary summertime sea ice retreat in the Arctic. For the second consecutive year, we experienced the opening of the fabled Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic waters. Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free. In addition, 2008 saw the simultaneous opening of the Northeast Passage along the coast of Russia. This meant that for the first time in recorded history, the Arctic ice cap was an island--one could completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters. Although the summer ice extent in 2008 finished 9% higher than 2007's record minimum, it was still an extraordinary 34% below average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Furthermore, the ice was thinner at the September 2008 minimum compared to 2007, so the total ice volume (thickness times area) was probably at its lowest point in recorded history in 2008.


Figure 1. Daily arctic sea ice extent for September 12, 2008. The date of the 2008 minimum (white) is overlaid on September 16, 2007--last year's minimum extent (dark gray). Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2007 and 008. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Arctic "perfect storm" of summer weather in 2007 did not repeat in 2008
The summer of 2007 saw a "perfect storm" of weather conditions favorable for ice loss. Unusually strong high pressure over the Arctic led to clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Arctic winds, which usually blow in a circular fashion around the Pole, instead blew from the south, injecting large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. How unusual were these conditions? Well, at last month's meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, J.E. Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that Arctic surface pressure in the summer of 2007 was the fourth highest since 1948. Cloud cover at Barrow, Alaska was the sixth lowest. This suggests that once every 10-20 years a "perfect storm" of weather conditions highly favorable for ice loss invades the Arctic. The last two times such conditions existed was 1977 and 1987.

The 2008 melting season began in March with slightly greater ice extent than had been measured in previous years, thanks to a relatively cold winter during 2007-2008. However, since so much ice had melted during the summer of 2007, most of the March 2008 ice was thin first-year ice, which extended all the way to the North Pole. The total ice volume in the Arctic in March 2008 was lower than what the record-breaking year of 2007 had seen. This led to speculation that a new record minimum would be set in 2008, and Santa's Workshop would plunge into the ocean as ice melted at the North Pole. However, the "perfect storm" of summertime weather conditions did not materialize in 2008. From May through July, cooler temperatures and winds less favorable to ice loss occurred. When very warm temperatures moved into the Arctic in August, the ice loss rate accelerated to levels higher than in 2007. However, with sunlight waning, ice loss was not able to reach the levels seen in 2007. Arctic temperatures in the summer of 2008 were up to 4°C cooler along the Siberian coast than in 2007 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Difference in surface temperature (°C) between the summer of 2008 and the summer of 2007. Blues and purples indicate areas where is was cooler in 2008. The biggest change was over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia, where exceptionally sunny weather with southerly winds in 2007 caused record-breaking warmth. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The future of arctic sea ice
Climate models have done a poor job predicting the recent record loss of arctic sea ice (Figure 3). None of the models used to formulate the official word on climate, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, foresaw the shocking drop of 2007-2008. At the December 2008 AGU meeting, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Navy Postgraduate School hypothesized that the reason for this was the models' improper handling of ocean currents and how they transport heat. He blamed 60% of the melting during the past decade on heat brought in by ocean currents, and projected that summertime arctic sea ice would completely disappear by 2016. Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory was more conservative, projecting a 2030 demise of arctic sea ice. He thought we would be "hanging around where we are for a while", and thought it would take two more unusual summers like the "perfect storm" of 2007 to push the system to an ice-free state. He further noted that while summertime air temperatures have been near record levels the past few years in the Arctic, there has been one period of comparable warmth, in the 1930s and 1940s. The year 1941 still ranks as the warmest year in the Arctic, though 2007 was virtually tied with it. However, the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s was different than the current warming, and was caused by the Siberian High moving unusually far east over Europe, driving warm, southerly winds over Greenland. The warmth in the past decade, in contrast, is associated with a warming of the entire planet, and is not due to an unusual pressure pattern driving warm air into the region. This means that the current warming is accompanied by much warmer ocean waters, which have helped caused much of the arctic sea ice loss the past two years by melting the ice from beneath.


Figure 3. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2007 and 2008 measurements. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

The impact on the jet stream
The unprecedented melting of arctic sea ice the past two summers has undoubtedly had a significant impact on the early winter weather over the Northern Hemisphere. Several modeling studies presented at the December AGU meeting showed that sea ice melt on this scale is capable of injecting enough heat into the atmosphere to result in a major shift in the jet stream. Dr. Overland remarked that the early cold winter over North America this winter, and the exceptionally cold and snowy early winter in China last winter, were likely related to arctic sea ice loss. The sea ice loss induced a strong poleward flow of warm air over eastern Siberia, and a return flow of cold air from the Pole developed to compensate. Thus regions on either side of eastern Siberia--China and North America--have gotten unusually cold and snowy winters as a result.

The impact on sea level rise
The loss of arctic sea ice will have little impact on sea level rise over the next few decades. Since the ice is already floating in the ocean, melting it does not change sea level much--just like when ice melting in a glass of water will not change the level of liquid in the glass. In the case of sea ice, there is a slight sea level rise, since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. If all the world's sea ice melted, it would raise global sea level by only 4 mm. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of sea level rise that would occur from complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet--which is on land.

The impact on melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The big concern with arctic sea ice melt is the warmer temperatures it will bring to the Arctic, which will bring about an accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As the sea ice melts, the resulting warmer average temperatures will increase the amount of dark, sunlight-absorbing water at the pole, leading to further increases in temperature and more melting of sea ice, in a positive feedback loop. As temperatures warm, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will raise global sea levels. While no one is expecting 20 feet of sea level rise from the total melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet for many centuries, even one meter (3.3 feet) of sea level rise due to the partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet can cause a lot of trouble. The official word on climate, the 2007 IPCC report, predicted only a 0.6-1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100, due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other factors. These estimates did not include detailed models of ice flow dynamics of glaciers, on the grounds that understanding of the relevant processes was too limited for reliable model estimates. The IPCC estimates were also made before the shocking and unexpected loss of arctic sea ice of the past two summers. In light of these factors, a large number of climate scientists now believe the IPCC estimates of sea level rise this century are much too low. The most recent major paper on sea level rise, published this month by Grinsted et al., concluded that there was a "low probability" that sea level rise would be in the range forecast by the IPCC, and predicted a 0.9 - 1.3 meter (3 - 4.3 feet) rise by 2100. Pfeffer et al. last month concluded that a "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (0.8 - 2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. The authors caution that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial. Other recent estimates of sea level rise include 1.6 - 4.6 feet (0.5 - 1.4 meters) by Rahmstorf (2007).

What would 3 feet of sea level rise mean?
Rising sea levels will lead to permanent and intermittent flooding in low-lying coastal areas across the world. A global sea level rise of .9 meters (3 feet) would affect 100 million people worldwide, mostly in Asia. The impact of hurricane storm surges will significantly increase as a result of sea level rise. Given a 3 foot rise in sea level, Hurricane Ike's storm surge would have overwhelmed the levees in Port Arthur, Texas, flooding the city and its important oil refineries. Galveston's sea wall would have been overtopped and possibly destroyed, allowing destruction of large portions of Galveston. Levees in New Orleans would have been overtopped, resulting in widespread flooding there, as well. I'll have a full analysis of who's at risk, and what the risks are, in a series of forthcoming blog posts this year.

What can we do?
One reasonable suggestion, presented by Trish Quinn of NOAA at the December 2008 AGU meeting, would be to limit the amount of crop residue burning that goes on in Eastern Europe and Asia each year. These fires generate large amounts of black soot that blows into the Arctic. These black particles on the white ice leads to a significant amount of warming during the summer months, when the black particles absorb sunlight.

For more information
The wunderground sea level rise page has detailed background info on sea level rise.
The wunderground Northwest Passage page is also a good reference.
realclimate.org has a nice post summarizing the recent sea level research.

I'll have a new blog post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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The GW debate has been flying through here... all day long...
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just stoppin by for a bit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting jjjj:
I'm sorry , but the good Dr. masters is wrong. He needs to check the latest temps in The polar regions and read the latest Pravda. I'm afraid he is or has been Gored.
you shall be replaced with empty space
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Good to see you on here, KOTG...
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Quoting fire831rescue:
LOL. I think we've all been "Gored" to death with this Global Warming hype. To quote REM: It's the end of the world as we know it.
and i feel fine
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
214. Skyepony (Mod)
Interesting article on China's weather satalites. I guess not available for public?
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LOL. I think we've all been "Gored" to death with this Global Warming hype. To quote REM: It's the end of the world as we know it.
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212. jjjj
I'm sorry , but the good Dr. masters is wrong. He needs to check the latest temps in The polar regions and read the latest Pravda. I'm afraid he is or has been Gored.
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sorry I could not post much today....I sprained my right wrist today....

AND IT HURTS!!!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting atmoaggie:
And Weather Channel Accused of Pro-Weather Bias

Note: Also fictional!
This one is absolutely great! LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
And Weather Channel Accused of Pro-Weather Bias

Note: Also fictional!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Yeah, it is from last month, I am catching up.

Hurriphoonado Claire

Note: This IS fictional! (had to do that, sorry)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
207. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1900z 12JAN)
==========================================
An area of convection (90P/05F) located at 13.3S 164.6E or 790 NM west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Animated infrared and water vapor imagery depicts an area of flaring deep convection associated with a region of very tight surface troughing and strong convergence. A 1430z AMSU-B microwave image indicates that a small low level circulation center may also be forming east of the deep convection located along the trough axis. Surface observations in the region indicate continued deepening with surface low pressure near 1002 MB and significant 24 hours pressure falls of 3-4 MB. Upper level analysis confirms that the disturbance lies along the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge beneath a col region. This region is favorable for slow development over the next 36 to 48 hours with weak outflow and moderate vertical wind shear preventing more rapid development. An upper level trough currently over eastern Australia however, is expected to move into the region within the next two days which could provide a significant boost in outflow allowing the system to develop more rapidly.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 23-28 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 MB. Due to the poorly defined low level circulation center less than optimum outflow and moderate vertical wind shear, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Click on image to view original size in a new window









Link Please....
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Quoting Stanb999:


It's the light of day shining back into the dark rooms of policy makers and their scientist toadies.


here it is, It's a kinda long file for what it is... but here you go.

http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Ghcn2_images/air_loc.mpg
Thanks for the link.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
204. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical, Ex-Dongo (988 hPa) located at 31.0S 72.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The extratropical low is reported as moving south-southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 33.7S 74.9E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24 HRS: 37.3S 79.3E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48 HRS: 45.0S 95.0E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

Additional Information
=======================
DONGO shows an extratropical structure. The center is fully exposed, wind structure is assymetric with a larger extension in the southeast due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures and the speed motion of the system., which has accelerated over the last hours, and should keep on acellerating for the coming ranges. DONGO is tracking towards a weakness in the subtropical pressures, along the western edge of the ridge located in the east, during the next days. DONGO should keep on tracking quickly towards the mid latitude under the steering influence of this ridge. Available dynamical guidance is in good agreement showing only some slight dispersion for the speed motion.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM... REFER TO HIGH SEA FORECAST FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting HTV:
Baha #193
If you like Jackson Web Cams go to Link
Not a more beautiful place to be stranded.
Yeah, I have them all saved. . . LOL Whenever I get a chance I head up into that area. (by that I mean every few years - it's an expensive trip from the Caribbean :o) Otherwise I watch the seasons via webcam.

Were u stranded there? or just skiing?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting presslord:
Earth on brink of an Ice Age

Pravda Jan.11, 2009

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth%u2019s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth%u2019s %u2018wobble%u2019, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth%u2019s axis over a period of 26,000 years.


I bet its because of the rapid increase of ice in the Poles in 2008.
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.
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200. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (1000 hPa) located at 13.2S 165.3E is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position GOOD based on visible imagery with animation, latest SSMI Pass, and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperatures around 30-31C.

the system lies along the monsoonal trough, under a 250HPA subtropical ridge in a 20-30 knot wind shear. Deep convection is sheared to the west with an exposed low level circulation center. Active convergence zone to the north maintains west to northwest 25 knot winds in the northern semi-circle. The depression is expected to continue moving in a general southeast direction. Development may be inhibited by entrainment of dry air from the south in the short term, However an upper amplifying trough migrating from the southwest is expected to move in and provide a significant boost in outflow and allow rapid development in the next 36 hours when it reaches southwest of Fiji.

The UK model is aware of the current weak circulation, while the rest of the global models has picked up the system as it develops explosively southwest of Fiji and moves it rapidly to the southeast.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
199. HTV
Link button drops a "/"
jacksonholenet.com/webcams
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Pravda,just out today,"Earth on brink of ice age".Evidence from field of climate science.Maybe this global warming hoax can be put to rest.
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Quoting Peacefulbon:


What?! Jimmy Page is 65? That must mean I am 57 on Thursday....aaacckk!


Now Im a lil weirded out.
My B-day is Thurs Jan 15th as well.
Cept Last year I saw it from a Morphine Hook-up and minus 3 feet of colon,..

That singularity must be getting closer to the Earth,Sol System.

After all..it is Armageddon Week

The Singularity..Link
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196. HTV
OOps!Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not sure what light this is, but . . .

Some interesting points otherwise. I'd like to see the info about the data collection points if u can find it.


It's the light of day shining back into the dark rooms of policy makers and their scientist toadies.


here it is, It's a kinda long file for what it is... but here you go.

http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Ghcn2_images/air_loc.mpg
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
194. HTV
Baha #193
If you like Jackson Web Cams go to Link
Not a more beautiful place to be stranded.
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Quoting HTV:


I was in the Yellowstone Area last week. Believe me they are already in the Ice Age. It got down to -25F and snowed over 2 feet while we were there. Jackson Airport was virtually closed down for 2 days.
I'm compeletely jealous, but not surprised. Every time I looked at the two webcams of the area (both on pass roads) it was snowing, blowing, or both . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting Stanb999:



You have indeed seen the light,
I'm not sure what light this is, but . . .

Some interesting points otherwise. I'd like to see the info about the data collection points if u can find it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
191. HTV
Quoting Inyo:
well, maybe the yellowstone caldera will blow.. then we'll be in an ice age regardless of what we do with our carbon.


I was in the Yellowstone Area last week. Believe me they are already in the Ice Age. It got down to -25F and snowed over 2 feet while we were there. Jackson Airport was virtually closed down for 2 days.
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Quoting Patrap:
Sorry,Im not sure I follow, defending a Map?

...LOL..,,what Kinda World do we Live In where the Northwest Passage Has opened up and Jimmy Page turns 65..?


What?! Jimmy Page is 65? That must mean I am 57 on Thursday....aaacckk!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I hope you realize the northern hemisphere is not the globe. (hemisphere=1/2 globe, IIRC). I haven't seen any evidence that supports the PDO regulating the entire globe.

In response to your "Second", my point was that we need to have better global monitoring and feedback if we are to correctly assess world needs.

Regarding both maps, I'm curious as to whether they are based on the same data (i. e. anomalies based on what period?). Also, only two days of the week (28 - 30) overlap. One can end up with some very different pictoral representations when 71% of the data is different.

This brings out a point. Data is easy to manipulate if the audience is not paying attention to the fine details. But aren't scientists supposed to do more than "play to the audience"?



You have indeed seen the light, That was put out by noaa on the front page of the NCDC on those days along with a global warming blurb, about "protecting" the future. If you click on NOAA as much as I do you may have seen it?


To your first point, Did you check were the bulk of the official weather stations are located? If you did you will note that the overwhelming majority are located not only in the northern hemisphere but also the USA and Europe. The vast majority of the rest of the data is inter populated with estimations.

I will try to find a link to a neat .Mpg that shows the world wide distribution of weather stations over the past 50 years IIRC. As little points of light. It is real interesting in that you can see Russia go dark due to the fall of the Soviet Union, than china kinda perks up near the end, With africa in a near constant blink. It seems when a country is in turmoil or strife they don't have the niceties of collecting weather data.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Yes Press, according to Jimmy Buffet.... There's a Party at the end of the World
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Post 169 - In regards to Bush and Katrina

A MAN IN SEARCH OF A MYTH WILL USUALLY CREATE ONE

Pueblo Proverb
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
I like to keep bringing people back to the point that GW is supposed to be about long-term TRENDS, not about incidental warming or cooling. Stan's map comparisons are great, but we can't say they prove or disprove any theory unless we know the period against which those temps are being measured.

The other point we need to keep in mind is that data collection IS changing with time. Part of my biggest concern about the MMGW theory is that we simply don't have enough data to "prove" anything. For me, this means instead of putting our heads in the sand and saying "It ain't happening," it makes MUCH more sense to deploy a greater number of more sophisticated weather data collection modules around the globe - not just in the technology rich northern hemisphere, but the whole globe. I'm convinced we won't have a genuine picture of what's happening re. global climate change if we don't monitor global patterns.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting Stanb999:



I do believe that your seriously misunderstanding the data.

First to say the the "weather" in the whole northern hemisphere isn't regulated by the PDO is a drastic misunderstanding. The pacific ocean is the largest heat sink/bank of the northern hemisphere.
I hope you realize the northern hemisphere is not the globe. (hemisphere=1/2 globe, IIRC). I haven't seen any evidence that supports the PDO regulating the entire globe.

In response to your "Second", my point was that we need to have better global monitoring and feedback if we are to correctly assess world needs.

Regarding both maps, I'm curious as to whether they are based on the same data (i. e. anomalies based on what period?). Also, only two days of the week (28 - 30) overlap. One can end up with some very different pictoral representations when 71% of the data is different.

This brings out a point. Data is easy to manipulate if the audience is not paying attention to the fine details. But aren't scientists supposed to do more than "play to the audience"?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
184. Inyo
well, maybe the yellowstone caldera will blow.. then we'll be in an ice age regardless of what we do with our carbon.
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yeah, this whole week...check it out...
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Armageddon Week?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Cool!!!!!!!!!!
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Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years.


they had that on the History Channel last night...it's "Armageddon Week"....I guess that's one way to get ratings...
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Earth on brink of an Ice Age

Pravda Jan.11, 2009

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth%u2019s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth%u2019s %u2018wobble%u2019, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth%u2019s axis over a period of 26,000 years.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
IIRC, we were PDO until about two years ago. I've never heard of PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, I think is the correct phrase) affecting the entire planet, but I do know that it's supposed to mean cooler waters near the US coast during negative sessions and warmer waters near the US coast during the positive ones. They last about 25 to 40 years. IIRC there seems to be some correlation between increased ATL hurricane activity and negative PDO phases, but I'll have to verify that. The thing is, -PDO is supposed to mean warmer waters in the WPAC, which I would think would align more with warmer winters in the the Orient. (I'm still not sure I have all the connections completely clear in my mind.) But that doesn't mean I'm thinking it corresponds to a cooler planet overall.

My point about the PDO is that it is an observed weather pattern that should affect specific areas in certain ways. If we are seeing major anomalies, perhaps there is some other, as yet unexplained, factor at work.




I do believe that your seriously misunderstanding the data.

First to say the the "weather" in the whole northern hemisphere isn't regulated by the PDO is a drastic misunderstanding. The pacific ocean is the largest heat sink/bank of the northern hemisphere.

Second, where do you believe the vast majority of the "weather" reporting stations are located in the world? What do you believe the bias is? What do you know about Siberian weather stations and when they were removed from the "record" and replaced with estimations? What about Canada? What about Greenland?

All this "science" has been based on estimation. We spend millions on infomercials about global warming but refuse to spend money to gather remote actual temperatures. (I'll give you a hit, they may not be as advertised.)

Three, It doesn't bode well for funding to say "Huston we don't have a problem".

If you truly wish to find out the truth. You can. It will take a bit of time tho. Just to start your head in the right direction. Compare these two images.... One is from the Aussies and one is from the fabled DR. James Hanson. Guess which one is wrong?








So who has the agenda?

for you link hounds...

Coldest December in Melbourne in 7 yrs
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-december-in-melbourne-in-seven-years/10682
Coldest December in Adelaide in 7 yrs
http://weather.farmonline.com.au/news/coldest-december-for-adelaide-in-seven-years/10681
Coldest December in Darwin in 8 yrs
http://weather.farmonline.com.au/news/coldest-december-in-eight-years-for-darwin/10686
Coldest November in Perth in 37 yrs
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-november-for-perth-in-37-years/10437
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Costa Rica Still Recovering in Earthquake Aftershock

Destroyed Roads Make it Difficult for Rescue Workers to Reach Victims by Land.

The death toll from Thursday’s magnitude 6.2 earthquake located 22 miles northwest of San Jose, Costa Rica has been updated to between 14 and 19, as official numbers from Sunday and Monday’s rescue efforts have yet to be quantified. A report from the Judicial Investigation Organization (OIJ) this morning, stated that the total missing persons count has been reduced from over 100 to just 23, as many people have been located in the 23 aid shelters that have been set up for victims in the area. The earthquake is also responsible for 91 injuries and the total destruction of more than 250 homes, dislocating more than 2,000 people.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
PDF]
THE FEDERAL RESPONSE TO HURRICANE KATRINA: LESSONS LEARNED Link

A must read and required reading for all who deal in Disaster Response.
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Quoting presslord:
W also said our good standing around the world was unblemished after his 8 years in office.....somebody should take the bong away from him....
I always appreciate your [ahem] evenhanded approach to things. . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting presslord:
W also said our good standing around the world was unblemished after his 8 years in office.....somebody should take the bong away from him....


ROTFLMAO!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Here's an idea: if you insist on doing the drilling, do so under strict environmental oversight, etc, tax it, and use the taxes to work towards transitioning to more renewable energy sources.

"OH NO, TAXES!!!!"

Well guess what, you might not like taxes, but if you are so opposed to them, please stop using highways that were paid for by taxes and oh yeah, if your house is on fire, please don't call the fire department. Put it out yourself!


This just got a little too droll.

Later.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting presslord:
W also said our good standing around the world was unblemished after his 8 years in office.....somebody should take the bong away from him....


Bwahhh,..Ha,Ha,..LOL..side splitting stuff
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wait so you trust extremists in the middle east more than you do our own government?
Huh? Is that some figurative interpretation of what I said? Someone else? I must have missed something. Do I trust that money motivates extremists in the middle east more than I want government in the way of intelligent energy use and development? Certainly.

I thought you republicans were supposed to be patriotic.. Wrong and right. I am NOT a republican. Patriotic? Very.
i guess that only lasts until it affects your pocketbooks! Whatever.

And it's been shown time and time again that drilling for more oil in the US is going to benefit the oil companies but have a rather small effect on our supply How do you suppose we survived before we started importing crude? We did refine crude, and plenty of it, before we started importing it.

while meanwhile trashing the environment You mean like a grounded tanker? Or maybe tax credit-driven ethanol production at the expense of deforestation, worse gas mileage, and water in tanks at every gas station?

and causing untold other social problems. Dude, were are not talking about casinos. Could you mean that the middle east countries would all of a sudden be poor with no one giving a damn? Like 100 years ago?

so yeah, if developing our own infastructure rather than pumping money into Saudi Arabia and Iran OK, demand drilling off the coast of California. Out of sight of land, with pipelines to the refineries.

makes me a socialist, than I guess I am one! Do not worry, grasshopper. Expecting the intelligent use of natural resources doesn't make you one of those. Supporting the imposition of a politician's unintelligent ideas concerning energy on the entire country might. Enjoy your label, whatever it may be.

Oh and one more thing. I said what I said. If I didn't say it, then I didn't say it. (Hmmm, just like I tell the wife.) Twisting what I say into "not patriotic" isn't going to earn you the sportsmanship of the year award. Cheerio!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
W also said our good standing around the world was unblemished after his 8 years in office.....somebody should take the bong away from him....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
165. Patrap 5:18 PM EST on January 12, 2009

Don't sweat the small stuff.

Especially acronyms.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Bush On Katrina: Don't Tell Me The Federal Response Was Slow

From Thinkprogress.org

During his final press conference this morning, Bush defended his response to Katrina. He said he has %u201Cthought long and hard about Katrina and admitted that things [could] have been done better but denied any problem with the federal response to the disaster, insisting, dont's tell me the federal response was slow!%u201D:
The federal response to Katrina was nothing short of a disaster. A 2006 report compiled by House Republicans slammed what it called failure of leadership, saying that the federal government blinding lack of situational awareness and disjointed decision making needlessly compounded and prolonged Katrina%u2019s horror. The report specifically blamed Bush, noting that earlier presidential involvement could have speeded the response because the president alone could have cut through bureaucratic resistance.
There is no question that the federal response was slow deadly slow. Katrina made landfall on Monday, Aug. 29, 2005, and the New Orleans levees were breached that morning. Despite the numerous warnings he had received about the storms severity, Bush spent that Monday traveling to Arizona and California to promote his Medicare drug bill. It was characteristic of the entire federal response: National Guard troops did not arrive in the area until two full days after the levees were breached. Bush did not leave his vacation home or assemble a task force until Wednesday, two days after the hurricane made landfall and the levees were breached.
By Thursday, three days after landfall, FEMA had yet to set up a command and control center.
FEMA Director Michael Brown said he had not heard about the more than 3,000 evacuees stranded in the convention center until Thursday. Many evacuees had been there since Tuesday morning.
On Friday morning, Bush praised Brown: Brownie, your'e doing a heckuva job. He also said he was satisfied with the response.
FEMA did not finalize its request for evacuation buses until Sunday, six days after Katrina hit. The buses trickled into New Orleans, with only a dozen or so arriving the first day, noted the Wall Street Journal.
The Superdome was finally evacuated on Sunday, a full seven days after 30,000 evacuees had arrived there.
Despite a FEMA official eyewitness accounts of breaches starting at 7 p.m. on Aug. 29,the Bush administration %u201Cdid not consider them confirmed until 11 hours later. In fact, FEMA did not order the evacuation of New Orleans until 1:30 a.m. on Aug. 31, two full days after Katrina made landfall.
In one area, however, the Bush administration did move quickly: pinning the blame for Katrina on its political opponents.
Update Following today's press conference, Karl Rove appeared on Fox News to join in absolving the Bush administration of any blame regarding the Katrina response. "The federal government is in charge of writing checks. It's not in charge of the action itself," Rove said.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.