Top climate story of 2008: Arctic sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2009

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The top climate story of 2008, as it was in 2007, was the extraordinary summertime sea ice retreat in the Arctic. For the second consecutive year, we experienced the opening of the fabled Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic waters. Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free. In addition, 2008 saw the simultaneous opening of the Northeast Passage along the coast of Russia. This meant that for the first time in recorded history, the Arctic ice cap was an island--one could completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters. Although the summer ice extent in 2008 finished 9% higher than 2007's record minimum, it was still an extraordinary 34% below average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Furthermore, the ice was thinner at the September 2008 minimum compared to 2007, so the total ice volume (thickness times area) was probably at its lowest point in recorded history in 2008.


Figure 1. Daily arctic sea ice extent for September 12, 2008. The date of the 2008 minimum (white) is overlaid on September 16, 2007--last year's minimum extent (dark gray). Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2007 and 008. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Arctic "perfect storm" of summer weather in 2007 did not repeat in 2008
The summer of 2007 saw a "perfect storm" of weather conditions favorable for ice loss. Unusually strong high pressure over the Arctic led to clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Arctic winds, which usually blow in a circular fashion around the Pole, instead blew from the south, injecting large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. How unusual were these conditions? Well, at last month's meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, J.E. Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that Arctic surface pressure in the summer of 2007 was the fourth highest since 1948. Cloud cover at Barrow, Alaska was the sixth lowest. This suggests that once every 10-20 years a "perfect storm" of weather conditions highly favorable for ice loss invades the Arctic. The last two times such conditions existed was 1977 and 1987.

The 2008 melting season began in March with slightly greater ice extent than had been measured in previous years, thanks to a relatively cold winter during 2007-2008. However, since so much ice had melted during the summer of 2007, most of the March 2008 ice was thin first-year ice, which extended all the way to the North Pole. The total ice volume in the Arctic in March 2008 was lower than what the record-breaking year of 2007 had seen. This led to speculation that a new record minimum would be set in 2008, and Santa's Workshop would plunge into the ocean as ice melted at the North Pole. However, the "perfect storm" of summertime weather conditions did not materialize in 2008. From May through July, cooler temperatures and winds less favorable to ice loss occurred. When very warm temperatures moved into the Arctic in August, the ice loss rate accelerated to levels higher than in 2007. However, with sunlight waning, ice loss was not able to reach the levels seen in 2007. Arctic temperatures in the summer of 2008 were up to 4°C cooler along the Siberian coast than in 2007 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Difference in surface temperature (°C) between the summer of 2008 and the summer of 2007. Blues and purples indicate areas where is was cooler in 2008. The biggest change was over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia, where exceptionally sunny weather with southerly winds in 2007 caused record-breaking warmth. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The future of arctic sea ice
Climate models have done a poor job predicting the recent record loss of arctic sea ice (Figure 3). None of the models used to formulate the official word on climate, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, foresaw the shocking drop of 2007-2008. At the December 2008 AGU meeting, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Navy Postgraduate School hypothesized that the reason for this was the models' improper handling of ocean currents and how they transport heat. He blamed 60% of the melting during the past decade on heat brought in by ocean currents, and projected that summertime arctic sea ice would completely disappear by 2016. Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory was more conservative, projecting a 2030 demise of arctic sea ice. He thought we would be "hanging around where we are for a while", and thought it would take two more unusual summers like the "perfect storm" of 2007 to push the system to an ice-free state. He further noted that while summertime air temperatures have been near record levels the past few years in the Arctic, there has been one period of comparable warmth, in the 1930s and 1940s. The year 1941 still ranks as the warmest year in the Arctic, though 2007 was virtually tied with it. However, the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s was different than the current warming, and was caused by the Siberian High moving unusually far east over Europe, driving warm, southerly winds over Greenland. The warmth in the past decade, in contrast, is associated with a warming of the entire planet, and is not due to an unusual pressure pattern driving warm air into the region. This means that the current warming is accompanied by much warmer ocean waters, which have helped caused much of the arctic sea ice loss the past two years by melting the ice from beneath.


Figure 3. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2007 and 2008 measurements. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

The impact on the jet stream
The unprecedented melting of arctic sea ice the past two summers has undoubtedly had a significant impact on the early winter weather over the Northern Hemisphere. Several modeling studies presented at the December AGU meeting showed that sea ice melt on this scale is capable of injecting enough heat into the atmosphere to result in a major shift in the jet stream. Dr. Overland remarked that the early cold winter over North America this winter, and the exceptionally cold and snowy early winter in China last winter, were likely related to arctic sea ice loss. The sea ice loss induced a strong poleward flow of warm air over eastern Siberia, and a return flow of cold air from the Pole developed to compensate. Thus regions on either side of eastern Siberia--China and North America--have gotten unusually cold and snowy winters as a result.

The impact on sea level rise
The loss of arctic sea ice will have little impact on sea level rise over the next few decades. Since the ice is already floating in the ocean, melting it does not change sea level much--just like when ice melting in a glass of water will not change the level of liquid in the glass. In the case of sea ice, there is a slight sea level rise, since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. If all the world's sea ice melted, it would raise global sea level by only 4 mm. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of sea level rise that would occur from complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet--which is on land.

The impact on melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The big concern with arctic sea ice melt is the warmer temperatures it will bring to the Arctic, which will bring about an accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As the sea ice melts, the resulting warmer average temperatures will increase the amount of dark, sunlight-absorbing water at the pole, leading to further increases in temperature and more melting of sea ice, in a positive feedback loop. As temperatures warm, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will raise global sea levels. While no one is expecting 20 feet of sea level rise from the total melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet for many centuries, even one meter (3.3 feet) of sea level rise due to the partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet can cause a lot of trouble. The official word on climate, the 2007 IPCC report, predicted only a 0.6-1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100, due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other factors. These estimates did not include detailed models of ice flow dynamics of glaciers, on the grounds that understanding of the relevant processes was too limited for reliable model estimates. The IPCC estimates were also made before the shocking and unexpected loss of arctic sea ice of the past two summers. In light of these factors, a large number of climate scientists now believe the IPCC estimates of sea level rise this century are much too low. The most recent major paper on sea level rise, published this month by Grinsted et al., concluded that there was a "low probability" that sea level rise would be in the range forecast by the IPCC, and predicted a 0.9 - 1.3 meter (3 - 4.3 feet) rise by 2100. Pfeffer et al. last month concluded that a "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (0.8 - 2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. The authors caution that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial. Other recent estimates of sea level rise include 1.6 - 4.6 feet (0.5 - 1.4 meters) by Rahmstorf (2007).

What would 3 feet of sea level rise mean?
Rising sea levels will lead to permanent and intermittent flooding in low-lying coastal areas across the world. A global sea level rise of .9 meters (3 feet) would affect 100 million people worldwide, mostly in Asia. The impact of hurricane storm surges will significantly increase as a result of sea level rise. Given a 3 foot rise in sea level, Hurricane Ike's storm surge would have overwhelmed the levees in Port Arthur, Texas, flooding the city and its important oil refineries. Galveston's sea wall would have been overtopped and possibly destroyed, allowing destruction of large portions of Galveston. Levees in New Orleans would have been overtopped, resulting in widespread flooding there, as well. I'll have a full analysis of who's at risk, and what the risks are, in a series of forthcoming blog posts this year.

What can we do?
One reasonable suggestion, presented by Trish Quinn of NOAA at the December 2008 AGU meeting, would be to limit the amount of crop residue burning that goes on in Eastern Europe and Asia each year. These fires generate large amounts of black soot that blows into the Arctic. These black particles on the white ice leads to a significant amount of warming during the summer months, when the black particles absorb sunlight.

For more information
The wunderground sea level rise page has detailed background info on sea level rise.
The wunderground Northwest Passage page is also a good reference.
realclimate.org has a nice post summarizing the recent sea level research.

I'll have a new blog post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Cold without snow is kind of a drag. It hasn't snowed in P-cola in a long long time.
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very true surfmom. some folks cant aford to heat there homes =( so this cold wave could be a deadly one
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Post 345 Pottery --- Hummmmmmm -- your questions will keep my mind busy today -- interesting obesrvations.............
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Conchy -- I got cold toes !!! ; ( Not looking forward to working outside the next several days....... this is going to be torture...LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
#360 - Vort -- all members of this clan have filled out an application!!! YoHOOO a Pyrates Life for ME!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Bonedog -- or have money to heat their houses....

Wishing cannot bring Spring Glory, nor cause Winter to cease -Kiowa Proverb

SWFL Coldfront Surf alert
Small line waves today, not what you were hoping for. We do have a clean knee high long board wave this morning, but the lack of water from the low tide is keeping the swell from reaching the beach.(see LowerCal's Blog for an explanation) Another cold blast tomorrow won't have any surf, but will keep us in the chill well into the weekend. Next real chance at swell possibly on Friday with yet another blast from up north. Gulf Temp 64
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
LOL conchy. Its cold and droping. Coldest will be thursday night and friday including friday night.

Looking for sub zero temps with even colder windchills. By this time tomorrow I forsee windchill advisories for much of the east.

I love the cold and am prepared but I can see this turning into dangerous situations for folks that haven't been through a cold spell such as this one.
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360
Vort,thanks for your help with this.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Until the High out West that streches from California to Alaska moves out, the MIdWest, South and EAst Coast will be in the Deep Freeze for some time. So, expect the temperature to presist for at least the next 7 days. Check my Blog out for more details.

BRRRRRRRR!
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Until the High out West that streches from California to Alaska moves out, the MIdWest, South and EAst Coast will be in the Deep Freeze for some time. So, expect the temperature to presist for at least the next 7 days. Check my Blog out for more details.

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357
I don't have all the details.. they were floating around the blog yesterday..I believe both surfmom and Emmyrose can fill you in... check with them. LOL
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MISS NADIA-WHAT DO THEY DO ON THE REEF FOR THAT MUCH MONEY?
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Love the video on the news yesterday of the weatherman in either Minn. or Wisc. up in that area,he throws a glass of water into the air and it freezes before it hits the ground.
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Quoting IKE:
The mother-lode of the arctic air.....

Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 14 sec ago
Clear
-20 °F
Clear
Windchill: -40 °F
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: -27 °F

Wind: 10 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.47 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 11.0 in
Elevation: 909 ft
Have a nephew up in that frozen tundra. Love the cold, but will take our FL temps over those any day!
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Quoting MissNadia:
352
Sounds like you should sell that place to Press and get a warm condo!

I love where I am, would not change it for all the tea in China.
I could always buy another heater or visit my sister. However, a few days of cold, reminds me how blessed I am to live here and is good for the character (just look at Orca and his halo - lol). The cat may be a bit miffed with me though.

MODIFIED - Really, Miss Nadia, I see a difference with just the few windows I have done. I really expect when I plug all the leaks, put a towel by the door etc, that I will be comfortable - or I would buy/borrow a little additional heat. It is a challenge at this point - how warm can I get it!! Will let you know.

I am off - safe day folks, keep warm.
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352
Sounds like you should sell that place to Press and get a warm condo!
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Quoting MissNadia:
Hey KEH...what temp do you have down there?


Hey Miss Nadia,

Right now it is 39.3F. Local mets are saying teens for the next few nights. The peninsula is usually about 3-5 degrees warmer in winter (and cooler in summer). Should be a cold night since my little heater usually adds about 20 degrees to the outside air temp. I have started putting plastic on these old leaking windows and I am seeing quite an improvement in that though.I am thinking I should be able to keep it above 40F. In bed, under multiple covers, I will be warm enough. Will warm up to high 40's -50 F during the day, so I will be plenty warm, except for early morning hours.
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Hey KEH...what temp do you have down there?
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Good morning folks,

For you folks in southern climes, this probably need not be said, but just in case - check your antifreeze in your car etc.
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Good Morning
The morning paper is reporting that the Australian Government has received over 200,000 job applications for the "best job in the world"... lay around an island on the great Barrier Reef and get $100,000 for 6 months work!
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Quick fly by... Good morning.

Hehe... find it quite funny that GFS has a slight chance of a snow shower across CFL on early Monday AM. Will be surprised if it keeps it up and other models like NAM agrees with it.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Just want to throw something out, in reference to the GW debate, and whether or not We are causing any part of the Ice Loss in the Arctic.
I find it strange, that the Antarctic is not losing ice as fast as the Northern Ice Cap. I also note that the Antarctic is very far away from any Major Human Population areas.
Compared to the North, the South is pretty far away.
Is there a correlation between the Industrial Northern Hemisphere and Ice Loss?
Seems to me there must be.
Therefore, can we say that Industrial Society in the North is causing Ice Loss in the North? And not in the South?
What are the Temps. in the South Polar regions, and have they changed? If they have not changed, why is that ?



Well they aren't sure of the temps. at the poles have changed, In the north it's the shifting ice that makes it hard to get a permanent weather station. In the south well the stations keep getting buried under the ice.

So they use estimations. It's to difficult to get actual temperatures so they avoid it.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning everybody.

Does anyone else find it interesting that Fiji is reporting its FIFTH TD for the season already? That seems like a lot for this point in their season.

I skimmed some of the GW related comments from yesterday. I'm still finding it quite interesting that most of the comments are focused on Nrn Hemi. cooling / heating.

BTW, it's 5:45 a.m. and I'm still waiting for the cold front to pass through. Currently it's mostly cloudy, calm, with temp around 75. Our forecast high is only 77, so this should give an idea of what our weather is likely to be like today LOL.

Anyway, I'm heading out before the weather gets here. If time permits I'll look in later today to report on the progress.

Good day all.



So, storm fronts like hurricanes are caused by "warm" fronts. HAHAHAHA

It's well known that a cold world makes hurricanes,cyclones/typhoons more prevalent.

The latest postulation is that warming will make them stronger.... Is this based on observation or ????.




Good morning everyone.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Good Morning.
Just want to throw something out, in reference to the GW debate, and whether or not We are causing any part of the Ice Loss in the Arctic.
I find it strange, that the Antarctic is not losing ice as fast as the Northern Ice Cap. I also note that the Antarctic is very far away from any Major Human Population areas.
Compared to the North, the South is pretty far away.
Is there a correlation between the Industrial Northern Hemisphere and Ice Loss?
Seems to me there must be.
Therefore, can we say that Industrial Society in the North is causing Ice Loss in the North? And not in the South?
What are the Temps. in the South Polar regions, and have they changed? If they have not changed, why is that ?

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344. IKE
The mother-lode of the arctic air.....

Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 14 sec ago
Clear
-20 °F
Clear
Windchill: -40 °F
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: -27 °F

Wind: 10 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.47 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 11.0 in
Elevation: 909 ft
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343. IKE
Montgomery,AL....Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and snow showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
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342. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee,FL. discussion....

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1045-1050 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH AND INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ALL
SHOW THIS LARGE HIGH CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN TN WITH 5-10
MPH NRLY WINDS STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED GUIDANCE BLEND INDICATES HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (<26 F)
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOCALLY RAN CONFIDENCE GRIDS (A
BLEND OF MODELS AND GUIDANCE) OUTPUT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR A HARD FREEZE NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VALDOSTA TO TALLAHASSEE TO WALTON COUNTY. AS A
RESULT...A HARD FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.

..........JANUARY TLH CLIMATE 1892-2008 (116 YRS)..........

RECORD LOW = 6F 1985
DAYS BELOW 15 F = 11
DAYS BELOW 20 F = 70

GUIDANCE (MAV/MET/NAM12BC) FOR THURSDAY MORNING (JAN/15/2009) = 28F
GUIDANCE (MAV/MET/NAM12BC) FOR FRIDAY MORNING (JAN/16/2009) = 24F
GUIDANCE (MEX/MOS AVE) FOR SATURDAY MORNING (JAN/17/2009) = 9F

PROBABILITIES FOR TLH:

% CHANCE OF A JANUARY TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 15 F = < .2%
% CHANCE OF A JANUARY TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 20 F = < .5%

.............................................................

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION SUNDAY. THIS MAINTAINS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3RD OF CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON MON. THIS FIRST HALF OF PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER
AIR DRIVEN INTO THE REGION BY A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. FRI NIGHT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL EARLY SUN. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO FIRST COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS ONE MAY BEING M/CLOUDY SKIES AND A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE COLD AND DRY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH OF THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND
REINFORCING FRONT SHOULD PASS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUES AND AGAIN...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TUES INTO WED.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO THE VERY COLD
MASSIVE 1045-1050 MB ARCTIC RIDGE WITH VERY COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BE CENTERED ALMOST OVER THE CWA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS AND
IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREAK RECORDS OVER
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR THE
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT ON SATURDAY IS 17 DEGREES (1977).

NEW MEX GUIDANCE EVEN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN WITH MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING
6, 13 AND 16 AT TLH, VLD AND DHN RESPECTIVELY. MOS SHOWS 12, 15 AND
15 FOR THE THREE SITES. HARD PRESSED TO FOLLOW MEX ESPECIALLY SINCE
ACCORDING TO TLH CLIMO...LESS THAN ONE PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES IN MONTH OF JANUARY. WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY TO MOS WHICH STILL DROPS INHERITED FORECAST 3-4
DEGREES. SO EVERYTHING POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE EVENT
OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT PAST 50 SE
ALA TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE (PER MOS). HARD FREEZE FOR AT LEAST ERN
HALF OF CWA POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH SHIFTS EWD BEGINNING
SUNDAY...MINS GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT HOVER AROUND FREEZING THRU
PERIOD. BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BUT TEMPS STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. GFS IS
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE
CONUS PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY FINALLY GIVING LOCAL REGION A BREAK FROM
A WINTRY WEEK.
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Morning! - happy to see 50 degrees in SWFL and NOT 40 degrees -- hope the sun warms up the day
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Morning everybody.

Does anyone else find it interesting that Fiji is reporting its FIFTH TD for the season already? That seems like a lot for this point in their season.

I skimmed some of the GW related comments from yesterday. I'm still finding it quite interesting that most of the comments are focused on Nrn Hemi. cooling / heating.

BTW, it's 5:45 a.m. and I'm still waiting for the cold front to pass through. Currently it's mostly cloudy, calm, with temp around 75. Our forecast high is only 77, so this should give an idea of what our weather is likely to be like today LOL.

Anyway, I'm heading out before the weather gets here. If time permits I'll look in later today to report on the progress.

Good day all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
339. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-F
18:00 PM FST January 14 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Five-F (999 hPa) located at 18.5S 175.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots within 120 NM of line 17S 177E, 19S 180, 22S 175E increasing to 35 knots at times in the next 12 hours. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots.

Position POOR based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

System embedded in an active monsoon trough, just south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge and downstream of a sharpening upper 250 trough. Deep convection located to northeast of low level circulation center losing curvature. Dvorak analysis based on curved band patter with a wrap of 0.2 yields DT=1.5 PT=1.0 MET=1.0, FT Based on DT.

T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS

TD FIVE is expected to continue to track southeast in a region of increasing environmental shear and lose its tropical characteristics.

Global models (EC/GFS) are not picking this small system, while the UK model identifies a weak circulation where 05F is located but does not develop it. The models are currently developing a baroclinic low analyzed to the south of Fiji and rapidly deepening the system while moving it to the southeast in the next 12-24 hours.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ISSUED ON THIS DEPRESSION UNLESS IT RE-ORGANIZES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ISSUED AROUND 2300 PM UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47041
338. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Special Weather Warning Tonga Number TWO
DEPRESSION (Subtropical/Extratropical)
19:00 PM FST January 14 2009
======================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, DEPRESSION [999HPA] CENTRE NEAR 22.5S 178.5W MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LINE 17S 177E, 19S 180, 22S 175W, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

Special Weather Warning Tonga
=============================
Expect west to northwest winds of 20-30 knots, increasing to 30-35 knots at times tonight with gusts of 50 knots over southern and central Tonga. Elsewhere fresh west to northwest winds, strong and gusty at times. Winds will gradually ease later tomorrow. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms

Very rough seas, heavy northwesterly swells. Poor visibility in heavy rain.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47041
Jeff, you just can't seem to understand the that man-made global warming is a fable and complete hoax. In all that blathering about the falsified IPCC reports and the study of the arctic ice sheet, you somehow neglected to mention that the ice recovered not only what it lost last year, but is now larger than the previous know record measured in 1978.

I also notice a great lack of interest in some of the coldest winter weather in generations. Why would that be? Maybe it doesn't fit in with the liberal factless science you and Al keep trying to shove down everyone's throats. It's over, deal with it and get back to reporting on real current weather, instead of the tales of fools and snake oil salesmen.
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336. Liann
Why would anybody want to get out in public and basic announce that they are paranoid delusion, a freaking insane nutjob?

You do realize that your blathering is on a blog operated by a SCIENTIST whom you have accused of serious crimes???

Quoting fire831rescue:


First and foremost, by politicizing the Global Warming debate, governments are enabled to exact more control over the general population by placing restrictions on any energy form deemed to be unsuitable due to its "carbon footprint" or "greenhouse gas emmisions." By the various large governments of the world saying that we need to reduce CO2 levels, they have the power to decide how the majority of the people are able to run their day to day lives. As far as the grant process goes, getting a grant for research on a project is a fairly easy task, so long as you have enough clout within the government to lobby for the money. The only requirement is that you use the money for its intended purpose. Third is the scare tactic, which, believe it or not, is actually used more than most would like to think. By scaring the general public into thinking that what they have been doing for years is wrong and could lead to dire consequences, the governments with the "scientists" in their back pocket, pushing the "global warming" debate, are able to control the general population to the point of conformity. In other words, "global warming" is nothing more than a ruse developed to control how the general population thinks and acts. Once the population thinks a certain way, it isn't long before the government is able to further push for more control over the lives of the general population.


First of all YOU politicized "Global Warming" by making it a "conservatives versus everybody else" political issue. You did what you accused others of doing. That's paranoid bubba, nutso.

Then you went on to parrot the conservative party line that big gommint is out to control everything through some conspiracy theory that involves scientists, except that conservatives controlled the big gommint during the Reagan-Bush, Bush-Quayle and Bush-Cheney eras, including when Clinton-Gore was controlled by Newt Gingrich conservative-dominated congress and on the ropes with Monica-gate. If there's a gommint plot to control everybody through "GW" then it's headquartered in Fox Newz basement with general Rush Drugbaugh in charge of it because these people have been making people think alike for years. It's amazing how much screwballs think alike about the big gommint conspiracy.

Oh, I have got to admire YOUR USE OF SCARE TACTICS to herd the people into the corral. Yeah, scare 'em about the bad gommint plot, scare 'em about the totalitarian control over their minds, scare 'em to not trust any money-grubbing grant-seeking scientists paid by mostly conservative-controlled congress and White House ever since Reagan fired the Air Traffic controllers in 1980. It was under these conservative mind-controllers that Global Warming became a big worldwide issue, as they doled out easy gommint grants from Newt Gingrich's congress. How do you think these grant-sucking scientists got that easy money out of Reagan, Bush, Bush and Gingrich? Obviously they ALL had to be involved in the plot, didn't they?

Take your meds. The revolution is over. Your side lost. I'm not one of those who believe in humoring the insane. Big gommint has the means to take you out in a pitch black night from 10,000 feet above, or from a remote controlled drone operated thousands of miles away. They don't need a plot -- they already have the power and total control. They don't need GW to keep you docile under their iron fist. All they need is the iron fist, and they have that already. So spare us all your prattle of paranoid delusions.

Science is the only toolkit that you possess which is truly yours, which can determine what is real and what is false. Everybody can do science, that is, everybody can test reality with the same set of tools. YOU can download from the internet instructions to build your own CO2 laser, and big gommint won't stop you from doing that and won't stop you from learning certain important points about CO2 at the same time.

You actually can test and confirm the basic principles of Global Warming theory without owning a billion-dollar laboratory. Local community colleges teach and demonstrate all the basics of science which underlines Global Warming theory. Chances are there is a local community college that you can attend somewhere in your own community which offers night courses.

Stop being an embarrassment in public and an object of ridicule. Your side lost. Get used to defeat. The winners now will proceed to remake the world without a surplus of Hurricane Katrinas -- we had plenty enough of them before we all began making things a lot worse. You don't get to wreck this world -- that's what losing means. Now be a good loser and go get drunk or something. But get it straight: you lost. That's permanent. I'm telling you, not big gommint, that YOU don't get to wreck MY world. Got it, loser?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
335. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TWO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-F
12:00 PM FST January 14 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Five-F (999 hPa) located at 16.8S 171.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots in sector west through east to southeast. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Position POOR based on Multispectral enchanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation, latest SSMIS Pass, and peripheral surface observations.

This system lies embedded in an active monsoonal trough, just south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge. Deep convection close to the low level circulation center has weakened in the last 6 hours. An active convergence zone remains to the north. Dvorak Intensity based on curved band pattern with a wrap 0.2 yields DT=MET=2.0 and PT=1.5.

FT Based on DT, resulting in T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

An amplifying upper trough from the southwest has started influencing TD FIVE with shear evident in the elongating cloud band pattern. The tropical depression is expected to continue to track southeast in a region of increasing environmental shear and lose its tropical characteristics.

Global models (EC/GFS) are not picking this small system, while the UK model indentifies a weak circulation where 05F is located but does not develop it. The models are currently developing a baroclinic low analysed to the south of Fiji and rapidly deepening the system while moving it to the southeast in the next 12-24 hours.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47041
334. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Special Weather Warning Tonga Number ONE
DEPRESSION (Subtropical/Extratropical)
14:00 PM FST January 14 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM, DEPRESSION [1001HPA] NEAR 21.8S 178.9W AT 140000 UTC SLOW MOVING.

POSITION POOR.

DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE LOCATED NEAR 23S 176.5W AT 1200UTC.

EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LINE 17S 177E, 19S 180, 22S 175W, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER WARNING - TONGA

An active south pacific convergence zone is located over Tonga with associated rain bands affecting the kingdom.

Expect west to northwest 20-30 knots winds increasing to 30-35 knots at times tonight with gusts to 50 knots over southern and central Tonga. Elsewhere, fresh west to northwest winds, strong and gusty at times. Winds gradually easing from later tomorrow. Very rough seas. Heavy northwesterly swells. Poor visibility in heavy rain.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47041
332. it has to do with how your filter is set. Set your filter to "Show All" and that should help.

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Ethanol...grrrr. (See previous posts).

OK, enough for tonight.

G'Night all.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
328. yeah, but i can design and build an ethanol plant...how about that? is that the best you've got? LOL

(that was my best comeback despite its weakness!)

LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Take your chem-e and do it in a pipe with a lot of dents (variable land surface), varying porosity of the pipe (differing land use and land vs ocean), varying pressure and density, phase changes going on throughout, and, oh yeah, the pipe is spinning. Not impossible, of course, but mathematically challenging.

sounds like a catalytic reactor in supercritical fluid service! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
325. LOL..you're possibly right...we tended to actually use our calculus in applications rather that engaging in mathematical mastur...well, you get the point! LOL

also, i'm sure you took a numerical methods class like we did (hence the inadequacy of approximation you speak so fondly of) as well as getting a royal reaming in heat and mass transfer classes when it came to calculus! LOL


LOL, funny guy.

Take your chem-e and do it in a pipe with a lot of dents (variable land surface), varying porosity of the pipe (differing land use and land vs ocean), varying pressure and density, phase changes going on throughout, and, oh yeah, the pipe is spinning. Not impossible, of course, but mathematically challenging.

Simple questions like "Why does the wind blow?" involve a whole lot of math. I cringe when I hear about some future met student that doesn't like math. Bad combination.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
alright...i'm out for the evening...have a good one, folks!

:)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
325. LOL..you're possibly right...we tended to actually use our calculus in applications rather that engaging in mathematical mastur...well, you get the point! LOL

also, i'm sure you took a numerical methods class like we did (hence the inadequacy of approximation you speak so fondly of) as well as getting a royal reaming in heat and mass transfer classes when it came to calculus! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
322. alright, dude. now you need to apologize! we did take linear algebra and actually used it in multiple classes including fundamentals of multicomponent distillation. also, engineering calculus 3 is ENTIRELY vector calculus, to which i also remember thinking..."WTF"??? LOL


Really!?! I do apologize. Hope I didn't ruffle too many feathers, or you might turn into a gamecock fan like thelmores (just teasing, here!)

I know all about your engineering cal 3. Been there. Now take what that was all about (yes, even the 3-d ellipsoids and such), make it a prerequisite, and expand on it for a semester. Vector calculus was a follow on to that class and only had EEs and atmo students in it as far as I know. I suppose it is possible that there could have been some poor sod that thought he was registering for a basket-weaving elective.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
thelmores...happy new year, my friend!

long time no see!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
322. alright, dude. now you need to apologize! we did take linear algebra and actually used it in multiple classes including fundamentals of multicomponent distillation. also, engineering calculus 3 is ENTIRELY vector calculus, to which i also remember thinking..."WTF"??? LOL

we also took EE classes and i think i did have to prove Green's theorem at some point in time!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
307. i remember thinking "wtf?!?!?" when the prof started talking about a Bessel J function! LOL


You're a chem-e. You didn't have to take the linear algebra or vector calculus that your EE brethren and us atmo guys did. You stopped at diff-eq.
That was a blast. "Here is your exam. Prove Green's theorem." Yay.
"If you pass, pick up your accidental math minor on the way out."
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
well...... penalty on global warming, penalty on global cooling...... penalties offset, we will replay the down!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
318. well, actually i must retract my previous comment. believe it or not, it actually does sound like a heat transfer problem using the electrical resistor analogy. hmmm....pretty neat ;)

thanks, man!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
315. i looked at the article...all i have to say is "whiskey tango foxtrot", over? LOL

i guess it gets around to an approximated empirical heat transfer coefficient, but far less rigorous than even i imagined! :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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