Top climate story of 2008: Arctic sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2009

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The top climate story of 2008, as it was in 2007, was the extraordinary summertime sea ice retreat in the Arctic. For the second consecutive year, we experienced the opening of the fabled Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic waters. Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free. In addition, 2008 saw the simultaneous opening of the Northeast Passage along the coast of Russia. This meant that for the first time in recorded history, the Arctic ice cap was an island--one could completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters. Although the summer ice extent in 2008 finished 9% higher than 2007's record minimum, it was still an extraordinary 34% below average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Furthermore, the ice was thinner at the September 2008 minimum compared to 2007, so the total ice volume (thickness times area) was probably at its lowest point in recorded history in 2008.


Figure 1. Daily arctic sea ice extent for September 12, 2008. The date of the 2008 minimum (white) is overlaid on September 16, 2007--last year's minimum extent (dark gray). Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2007 and 008. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Arctic "perfect storm" of summer weather in 2007 did not repeat in 2008
The summer of 2007 saw a "perfect storm" of weather conditions favorable for ice loss. Unusually strong high pressure over the Arctic led to clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Arctic winds, which usually blow in a circular fashion around the Pole, instead blew from the south, injecting large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. How unusual were these conditions? Well, at last month's meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, J.E. Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that Arctic surface pressure in the summer of 2007 was the fourth highest since 1948. Cloud cover at Barrow, Alaska was the sixth lowest. This suggests that once every 10-20 years a "perfect storm" of weather conditions highly favorable for ice loss invades the Arctic. The last two times such conditions existed was 1977 and 1987.

The 2008 melting season began in March with slightly greater ice extent than had been measured in previous years, thanks to a relatively cold winter during 2007-2008. However, since so much ice had melted during the summer of 2007, most of the March 2008 ice was thin first-year ice, which extended all the way to the North Pole. The total ice volume in the Arctic in March 2008 was lower than what the record-breaking year of 2007 had seen. This led to speculation that a new record minimum would be set in 2008, and Santa's Workshop would plunge into the ocean as ice melted at the North Pole. However, the "perfect storm" of summertime weather conditions did not materialize in 2008. From May through July, cooler temperatures and winds less favorable to ice loss occurred. When very warm temperatures moved into the Arctic in August, the ice loss rate accelerated to levels higher than in 2007. However, with sunlight waning, ice loss was not able to reach the levels seen in 2007. Arctic temperatures in the summer of 2008 were up to 4°C cooler along the Siberian coast than in 2007 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Difference in surface temperature (°C) between the summer of 2008 and the summer of 2007. Blues and purples indicate areas where is was cooler in 2008. The biggest change was over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia, where exceptionally sunny weather with southerly winds in 2007 caused record-breaking warmth. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The future of arctic sea ice
Climate models have done a poor job predicting the recent record loss of arctic sea ice (Figure 3). None of the models used to formulate the official word on climate, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, foresaw the shocking drop of 2007-2008. At the December 2008 AGU meeting, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Navy Postgraduate School hypothesized that the reason for this was the models' improper handling of ocean currents and how they transport heat. He blamed 60% of the melting during the past decade on heat brought in by ocean currents, and projected that summertime arctic sea ice would completely disappear by 2016. Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory was more conservative, projecting a 2030 demise of arctic sea ice. He thought we would be "hanging around where we are for a while", and thought it would take two more unusual summers like the "perfect storm" of 2007 to push the system to an ice-free state. He further noted that while summertime air temperatures have been near record levels the past few years in the Arctic, there has been one period of comparable warmth, in the 1930s and 1940s. The year 1941 still ranks as the warmest year in the Arctic, though 2007 was virtually tied with it. However, the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s was different than the current warming, and was caused by the Siberian High moving unusually far east over Europe, driving warm, southerly winds over Greenland. The warmth in the past decade, in contrast, is associated with a warming of the entire planet, and is not due to an unusual pressure pattern driving warm air into the region. This means that the current warming is accompanied by much warmer ocean waters, which have helped caused much of the arctic sea ice loss the past two years by melting the ice from beneath.


Figure 3. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2007 and 2008 measurements. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

The impact on the jet stream
The unprecedented melting of arctic sea ice the past two summers has undoubtedly had a significant impact on the early winter weather over the Northern Hemisphere. Several modeling studies presented at the December AGU meeting showed that sea ice melt on this scale is capable of injecting enough heat into the atmosphere to result in a major shift in the jet stream. Dr. Overland remarked that the early cold winter over North America this winter, and the exceptionally cold and snowy early winter in China last winter, were likely related to arctic sea ice loss. The sea ice loss induced a strong poleward flow of warm air over eastern Siberia, and a return flow of cold air from the Pole developed to compensate. Thus regions on either side of eastern Siberia--China and North America--have gotten unusually cold and snowy winters as a result.

The impact on sea level rise
The loss of arctic sea ice will have little impact on sea level rise over the next few decades. Since the ice is already floating in the ocean, melting it does not change sea level much--just like when ice melting in a glass of water will not change the level of liquid in the glass. In the case of sea ice, there is a slight sea level rise, since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. If all the world's sea ice melted, it would raise global sea level by only 4 mm. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of sea level rise that would occur from complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet--which is on land.

The impact on melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The big concern with arctic sea ice melt is the warmer temperatures it will bring to the Arctic, which will bring about an accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As the sea ice melts, the resulting warmer average temperatures will increase the amount of dark, sunlight-absorbing water at the pole, leading to further increases in temperature and more melting of sea ice, in a positive feedback loop. As temperatures warm, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will raise global sea levels. While no one is expecting 20 feet of sea level rise from the total melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet for many centuries, even one meter (3.3 feet) of sea level rise due to the partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet can cause a lot of trouble. The official word on climate, the 2007 IPCC report, predicted only a 0.6-1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100, due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other factors. These estimates did not include detailed models of ice flow dynamics of glaciers, on the grounds that understanding of the relevant processes was too limited for reliable model estimates. The IPCC estimates were also made before the shocking and unexpected loss of arctic sea ice of the past two summers. In light of these factors, a large number of climate scientists now believe the IPCC estimates of sea level rise this century are much too low. The most recent major paper on sea level rise, published this month by Grinsted et al., concluded that there was a "low probability" that sea level rise would be in the range forecast by the IPCC, and predicted a 0.9 - 1.3 meter (3 - 4.3 feet) rise by 2100. Pfeffer et al. last month concluded that a "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (0.8 - 2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. The authors caution that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial. Other recent estimates of sea level rise include 1.6 - 4.6 feet (0.5 - 1.4 meters) by Rahmstorf (2007).

What would 3 feet of sea level rise mean?
Rising sea levels will lead to permanent and intermittent flooding in low-lying coastal areas across the world. A global sea level rise of .9 meters (3 feet) would affect 100 million people worldwide, mostly in Asia. The impact of hurricane storm surges will significantly increase as a result of sea level rise. Given a 3 foot rise in sea level, Hurricane Ike's storm surge would have overwhelmed the levees in Port Arthur, Texas, flooding the city and its important oil refineries. Galveston's sea wall would have been overtopped and possibly destroyed, allowing destruction of large portions of Galveston. Levees in New Orleans would have been overtopped, resulting in widespread flooding there, as well. I'll have a full analysis of who's at risk, and what the risks are, in a series of forthcoming blog posts this year.

What can we do?
One reasonable suggestion, presented by Trish Quinn of NOAA at the December 2008 AGU meeting, would be to limit the amount of crop residue burning that goes on in Eastern Europe and Asia each year. These fires generate large amounts of black soot that blows into the Arctic. These black particles on the white ice leads to a significant amount of warming during the summer months, when the black particles absorb sunlight.

For more information
The wunderground sea level rise page has detailed background info on sea level rise.
The wunderground Northwest Passage page is also a good reference.
realclimate.org has a nice post summarizing the recent sea level research.

I'll have a new blog post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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in regards to ice loss, please look at the link,
http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm
pics. 10 & 15 are interesting as they show USN Skate at the north pole in 1959 and 1862, in open water. one picture is in August the other is not dated.
how does this coincide with your article ?
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The top story of 2009, the Arctic sea ice has
returned !! See the National Ice and Snow Data
Center graphic at
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
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Quoting LPStormspotter:
can yall see me?


Nope! (just kiddin, of course)
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can yall see me?
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Good morning everyone,

Don't know about snow - it is pretty dry here. (DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER) per NWS. I worry more about that danger, seeing as people (especially the homeless) will be seeking ways to stay warm.

Would be interesting (fun for the kids) if it does snow. Warning to all - if it does snow - watch out for us. We do not know how to drive in the snow, but it is soooo much fun. You may want to stay off the roads, while the fool hardy have their fun. (When it comes to navigating flooded streets - I will put the skills of Charlestonians up against anyone.)

Not sure how cold it was early this morning. It is 49.5°F on the peninsula right now. (66°F in my room now). The real blast has yet to hit - but is certainly on the way. High pressure is increasing - quite evident on the Folly Beach Buoy off the coast.

What caught my attention, TampaSpin, was your comments on a TS in January!! Imagine if we were to have both a TS and Snow -- Yikes!
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conchy,no snow for me,a little along the new england south coast and cape cod,but nothing to write home about.A better chance for snow on Sunday.As far as the cold for the whole east coast,no sign of a warmup,until the ridge in the west breaks down
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
Anyone from SE TX in here this morning?
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512. GBlet
Good morning from central Kansas! We are getting a little snow this morning. Nothing compared to what we need! The winter wheat out west of us is not doing very well at all. We need all the moisture we can get as these storms keep passing us by.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
With all this moisture coming out of the SW GOM is snow in the South possible??


So what are your thoughts on our 2009 season
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Quoting NEwxguy:
GM,all,from cold!!!!!!massachusetts.
Good Morning - any snow to make the cold worth it or too cold to snow.
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GM,all,from cold!!!!!!massachusetts.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
Hey Tampaspin

Long time no see. nice update
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Quoting TampaSpin:
With all this moisture coming out of the SW GOM is snow in the South possible??



Tell the moisture to make it to NC. I want snow. It snows north of us and south of us in patterns like this. Clipper lows to the north and moisture near the gulf.
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Quoting Stlouiskid:


Would you like to trade tempratures, we are at a chilly 0.3....
Probably not! I love it cool but that is pushing it! :)
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good blog tampa, this will get interesting
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Only down to 57 here this morning, but it is still beautiful. Did get the AC fixed too!

Daughter is doing college visit today in Gainesville, - its 30 there right now.

That's colder than you Orca.



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Quoting conchygirl:
Good Morning - it is a beautiful, crisp morning here with 41 at my house when I left for work. Doesn't get much better than this. Tampa - interesting blog.


Would you like to trade tempratures, we are at a chilly 0.3....
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Good Morning - it is a beautiful, crisp morning here with 41 at my house when I left for work. Doesn't get much better than this. Tampa - interesting blog.
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Good Morning everyone. i had a low of 28.4 here in Zephyrhills Fl. Very interesting blog Tampa spin has snow for the south. Would be great to see but imagine all the trouble there would be on the roads.
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Good Morning
38 here in Wilmington
Clear skies and light SW wind
Looking for a high of 42
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I will gladly send Florida all the snow it wants

I get on average 100 inches a year I am already at 70 inches this year
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wow the tropics are ded
bye see you all at 5ish e
Not for long . . .
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Wow the tropics are ded
bye see you all at 5ish e
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It could snow on Sunday Monday and Tuesday 1st real possible snow fall event here in N VA yeah!
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Morning all. Temps didn't dip here as much last night as I expected. We did hit 65, but only briefly. It feels about as cold outside now as it did 7 hours ago. Very calm - no wind, plus mostly overcast skies means we didn't see as much of a drop. By Friday night I think Nassau could hit 60, since the skies are likely to clear off somewhat by then.

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Here is the head line for my Weather Blog i just updated......

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH!! NO KIDDING!! WOW

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
words for the week crisp and crunchie
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491. unf97
490. This arctic air mass plunging south over the Eastern ConUS is extremely dry. It is very doubtful for any decent return moisture flow for at least 4-5 days from now. The arctic high ridge will slowly moderate and shift south and eastward during this time. The arctic boundary is currently moving through the lower Tennessee River Valley region and will sweep through the SE US region during Thursday and Thursady night. Currently, we are under the influence of a High pressure ridge that built in along the Gulf Coast region behind the short wave disturbance which moved over N. FL on Tuesday. The air mass tonight is quite chilly indeed, with my thermometer currently reading 33 degrees just after midnight here in Jax. The arctic boundary will pass through here by tomorrow night. The forecast mins expected to be in low 20s on both Friday and Saturday mornings.
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Moisture from the SW GoM gradually building northward to the central Gulf, although the dominant steering flow appears to be a southwesterly flow, which will keep the bulk of the moisture confined to the northeastern Gulf Coast all the way southward to the central and southwestern Florida Peninsula.

I'm hoping for some wintry precipitation here in southeast Louisiana, although the air is likely too dry for any significant precipitation to occur.
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.
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When is the last time such "Gulf effect snow" occurred in sw Florida? I know it happened in e. central florida in 2003 and 2008, and the forcast indicates the possibility of sprinkles/flurries on the east coast Friday. Any updates on this? As far as temps, they don't seem to be dropping as fast as expected so far tonight.
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I would like to see snow.. Zoo was complaining that her AC wasn't working. She was actually hoping for colder weather..... so you know who was asking for it.

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I've only seen it snow twice here in SWFL and I'm talking light flurries that melted before they touched the ground. Pretty cool though. Sometimes if you're close enough to the water you can see the same effect. Gulf effect snow.. I guess you would call it.
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485. HTV
483. Maybe sleet or ice pellets. No moisture near the surface for snow. JMO
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Snow.. Florida :)
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With all this moisture coming out of the SW GOM is snow in the South possible??

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Hello all, would like to give you all an weather update from here in Sydney Australia. I am in the suburb of Parramatta. Below are my current weather conditions.

Thursday 15/01/2009 13:30
Temperature 40.6C Rising
Dew Point 8.9C Falling
Relative Humidity 15%
Feels like 38.7C
Wind: NW 9km/h steady
Wind gusts 15km/h.

Cheers AussieStorm
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Gotta take a break! Later, all.
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Thanks, Skye.

Both the animated SSTs and the anomalies maps show a couple pools of unusually warm waters in the Fiji area right now, up to 3 degrees Celsius warmer. I'm not so surprised now to see a greater than average number of TCs in their area.
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479. Skyepony (Mod)
Oh yes the La Nina conditions are in place.

MJO has been so avoiding the western side for months now, never seen it this lopsided. It's looks to be making move..deep into the W Pac suddenly. This quiet typhoon spell maybe about to end.
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Skye,

For some reason the CPC sub-surface temps are about 1-2°C cooler than TAO in the East Pacific. Either way, we are firmly into La Nina now...
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477. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's the link.
You can really see it coming toward the surface in the T-depth annomily.

Sulli~ I was looking at it this afternoon. Looked forecast feirce & as warm core in the end as it ever has been forecast. Models been on this one for weeks.
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476. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just read Dr. M's blog. Did I miss something - over a week ago someone posted an article about the polar ice cap and how it had a record increase at year end. In fact the ice cap was at 1979 levels.

Why did Dr. M. not address this? Or did I read something on here that was not accurate?

Thank you.



You missed the graph that came with the article. They were comparing sea ice on the last day of the year, from year to year. Not maximum or minimum ice extent for the year. Looking at the graph we also had 1 million more sq miles of ice at the end of '07 than we did end of '08. We could have named the article "Current sea ice is much less than this time last year" ~ & put an oppisite spin on the story.

Dr Masters is stressing the minimum for the year (not side tracking on who had an earlier winter). & that the Fabled (as in fairys & middle earth times) Northwest passage has already opened, long before anyone predicted it to. Not just once but 2 years in a row.
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Also looks like a decent Tehuano wind event this weekend in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
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Skye,

Earlier in the week the GFS had that low progged to drop down to 935mb in the Davis Strait!

For all others reading this with a good memory recall Hurricane Felix became a category 5 at 935mb!
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skye,

u have the link / source for the first map? Ta.
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Quoting hurristat:


Ya, I've been lurking... ironically the combination of STL's overzealousness and the overdiscussion on it has driven me crazy and I'm not quite the advocate for change that I was beforehand.
I really find it hard to believe we are not impacting our environment via the pollutants we (humanity) are putting into place where they don't belong. However, I'm still not convinced that the warming trend we have been seeing is part of the effect. I admit I was disappointed STL got so upset about things; some of the links he posted from time to time on the subject were interesting and informative. Ironically, fire's "overzealousness" tonight has pushed me the other way LOL.

Nevertheless.

Something I read this week reminded me "Don't sweat the small stuff. And it's all small stuff." I think I'll take the advice and go dig in my freezer for some ice cream . . .

LOL
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471. Skyepony (Mod)
ENSO has everything to do with Queensland having a busy season. La Niña conditions like now, pile warm water up by them.


The winds also slow in the area causing the Doldrums, further heating the water.



The L off the E of Canada is 969mb & just getting started.
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We're down to 72 degrees here, btw. Temps are falling, but slooooowwwwwwwwwwwlllllllyyyyyyyy . . . .......
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry stat. This is a conversation we started a couple days ago. Doesn't it count that we're not really fisting out, only "discussing"?????

LOL


Ya, I've been lurking... ironically the combination of STL's overzealousness and the overdiscussion on it has driven me crazy and I'm not quite the advocate for change that I was beforehand.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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