The global tropical cyclone season of 2008: below average

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2009

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It was a below average year for global tropical cyclone activity, and the destructive power of these storms was close to the lowest levels observed since since reliable records began in the early 1980s. However, the the total number of global deaths from tropical cyclones was the highest since 1991, thanks to the estimated 140,000 people killed in Myanmar from Tropical Cyclone Nargis. The total number of storms world-wide was 90, slightly lower that the average from the past 25 years of 92 (Figure 1). The global number of hurricanes, intense hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), and Category 4 and stronger storms were all below average. Only one Category 5 storm was recorded in 2008--Super Typhoon Jangmi, which attained winds of 165 mph at 06 GMT on September 27, as it approached the north coast of Taiwan. The last time so few Category 5 storms were recorded globally was in 1974, when there were none. The 2008 hurricane season was much above average in the Atlantic, but the Atlantic only accounts for about 13% of all global tropical cyclone activity.


Figure 1. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2008. The three numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2008, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses), followed by the record (in red). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's new International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A notable feature of the 2008 tropical cyclone season was the low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season. ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed. ACE for an individual storm is computed by squaring the maximum sustained winds of the storm at each 6-hourly advisory, and summing up over the entire lifetime of the storm. The ACE value for 2008's storms was close to the low values on record seen in 2000-2001 and the early 1980s (Figure 2). Part of the reason for the low ACE values in 2008 (and in 2007) was due to the presence of a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The last major La Niña event (2000-2001) is clearly evident in Figure 2 as a minimum in global and Northern Hemisphere ACE.


Figure 2. Global (green) and Northern Hemisphere (blue) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 24 month running sum through December 31, 2008. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months. Image credit: Ryan Maue, Florida State University.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
The 2008 global tropical cyclone season shows that these storms are subject to large natural variations. Given this high natural variability and the short record of good data we have (just 25 years or so), it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. The situation is different in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record, and the storms seem to be more sensitive to changes in Sea Surface Temperature. I'll be putting together a full review of the scientific progress on understanding the link between climate change and Atlantic and global hurricane activity over the coming few months.


Figure 3. Satellite image of 2008's strongest tropical cyclone at maximum intensity: Super Typhoon Jangmi. Jangmi was rated a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds at 06 GMT Sep 27, 2008, making it the only Category 5 storm of 2008. The storm eventually weakened to a low-end Category Four before striking Taiwan. It left two people dead and caused at least $800 million (2008 USD) in damages. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Jeff Masters

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I put together a 90 page list of maritime actions along Florida's coast during the Civil War. The Bahama's were influencial here from the beginning and were instrumental during the war for the south. They were the first wreckers here and dominated the business for years. The Pent family is Miami's oldest and they came from the Bahama's,and both Brickell and Peacock the trading post operators at Miami River were English. The Brits did more here in twenty years than the Spanish in several hundred.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2745
Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't the current commonly accepted theory on Roanoke that a hurricane wiped the island out? I'm thinking abou the effects of recent 'canes on the OBX and feeling that would make a lot of sense . . .

Ahh... another way that weather influenced the early european settlements.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting KEHCharleston:
256. BahaHurican -
In many ways Carolinam, West Indies and Bahama were all part of the same economic system. was an extension of the West Indies and Bahama economic systems. (particularly in the 1600's - 1700's)
Would Roanoke (The Lost Colony) have faired better if they had these beneficial nautical winds a bit more accessible. - Would be interesting to know how the Burmuda High was set up at the time.
Isn't the current commonly accepted theory on Roanoke that a hurricane wiped the island out? I'm thinking abou the effects of recent 'canes on the OBX and feeling that would make a lot of sense . . .
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256. BahaHurican -
In many ways Carolinam, West Indies and Bahama were all part of the same economic system. (particularly in the 1600's - 1700's)
Would Roanoke (The Lost Colony) have faired better if they had these beneficial nautical winds a bit more accessible. - Would be interesting to know how the Burmuda High was set up at the time.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
"What sweet in goat mout,does sour in'e
bambam!"


We have this in the Bahamas as "What swee your mouth pepper your tail."

I'm convinced some of these sayings came across the waters with our W African ancestors.
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And of course, Bjan, the very qualities that made Barbados a #1 stop ensured that Nassau would continue to be a sleepy backwater . . . LOL
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Afternoon, all.

Bjan, KEH, ur conversation about the WI/Carolina connection has been interesting reading. It also reminds me of the connection between the Bahamas and the Carolinas - quite a few of the Carolina Loyalists ended up in the Bahamas, e.g. - and of the weather patterns that influenced the connection. I know a lot of the white Bahamians who are now considered "high class" (i. e. they have relatively old money lol) made that money by running rum to the Carolinas (though Wilmington / Great Banks was a more likely area for them) and for a very small number, by running the blockade during the Civil War. The weather definitely played a major role in keeping these "business" ventures going.
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KEH- clever- how true- because of the anutical/climatic features ( among others) Barbados was a key port in the triangular trade and afterwards the first major port after the Azores and served as an entrepot between Europe, south america, Central america and the Southern US- as well as Atlantic states and Canada- and of course, the Windward Islands. The steering currents and trades and its proximity in the Atlantic made it an ideal port.
But the Atlantic side was too rough for creating a port- hence sailing around the southern point to swampy Bridgetown, which had an inlet,no not a really safe port from the weather like English Harbour in Antigua- but a place where ships could be caulked, even ironworks to do all the major repairs and to keep ships relatively safe during bad weather.
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000
FXUS62 KCHS 111732
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009
.......
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ARCTIC COLD IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
RE 250 - Indeed there are many sayings particularly on the islands here. - Schools do teach the basics of the West Indies-Charleston connection.
To give this a weather twist - AS I understand it - it was the Burmuda High that assisted this progression of Barbados to the Charles Town Port. Sailing vessels ran from England to Azores to Barbadoes to Charleston then up the east coast and finally around the top of the Burmuda High eventually to back to England. Again weather and climate matter.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Re 246- Mr. Orca, your backyard is a little paradise, I wouldn't mind being there and cleaning your koi pond.
Question, our koi of course live year round here, but in the North- epecially with the temperatures some states have been having, what do people do?
In your case do they live year round in the pond because you live in beautiful Victoria with its normally much much milder weather than say- Manitoba-??
then I was thinking- parts of Japan get snow and the koi must live in the ponds there over the winter??? Thanks
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KEH- No Wunnah, no rable, talk yuh talk, wunnah! Reminds me of one of the West Indian sayings- not at all what you were saying please understand- just always found it so funny- "What sweet in goat mout,does sour in'e
bambam!" and "Crapaud smoke yuh pipe". Do you have similar sayings??"-

Do South Carolinians learn about this historical connection in school? Or how important the ties between the West Indies and the 13 colonies were during the Revolution, that the first "country" to recognise the new US was a West Indian island and that we continued to trade with the 13 colonies, not only Mass. but especially Charleston despite the mighty British navy and the West Indies was also thinking very seriously of folowing in the US steps and declaring a revolution?? Just curious? Better get back to topic after this or I'll get in trouble!
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RE:248. Bjanmama
I would guess that most Charlestonians (at least those who have been here awhile) are aware of our British/West African/Caribbean influence. Gullah is still spoken here on our Sea Islands, and to a lesser extent on the Charleston Peninsula. Didn't mean to 'unrable at de mout' :)



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Re KEH- I know, that's what I was talking about. During the English civil Wars and really earlier with the consolidation of the plantation system, some of the biggest planters in Barbados and their slaves left- some went to Jamaica, some helped build St. Kitts and a lot went to Carolina. The architecture between Bridgetown, Speightstown ( mostly destroyed by the modern developers- but we're trying to presrve some) and Charleston's is the same; the original families largely came from Barbados. and there is a link between Gullah and the languages the Africans from the West Indies spoke, of course- and some of them settled in the islands where Gullah is spoken- The linguists have been studying Gullah and west Indian /creole- lots of scholarly and archeological work is still going on re the connection between Barbados especially and the Carolinas. That's why Barbados is "twinned" with Charleston, it's our sister city. May I ask How do you know so much about this?? Most americans, even southerners don't??

re English food- when I was studying across the pond many many years ago- and nearly dying from eating boiled to death turnips and parsnips and mutton and brussel sprouts-ugh! our only salvation was Indian food- for a lot of British people too! thank god for Indian immigration to Britain ( I know some folks wouldn't agree- but cusine-wise- it has been a salvation) except for fish& chips- how I miss fish& chips wrapped up in newspaper after a long night at the pub especially in freezing weather. and then- to get oranges- that was a real treat- the thing I remember the most was how bad the teeth of the english and the Irish were- and diet was the key thing

But Cotillion have been back and things much improved thanks to all the immigration of us folks from hot countries-improved your diet and people now know how to steam vegetables properly!
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247. eddye
will someone tell me how cold it will get in south fl i saw the gfs haas upper 30
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BTW, for those people who have nothing to do today.. I need some help if your bored...

Now that the ice and snow finally melted (almost) I have to go INTO the Koi pond and clean up.. its about 3 feet deep... its going to be a tad on the cold side.. and I don't have hip waders (yet, may go buy some now).. anyone want to take my place?



It looks a lot colder now, then it does in this picture.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP no.. Victoria :)

BTW, I wasn't insulting your weather.. I was insulting your city

Hmm...no wonder they say that "Everybody hates Toronto". Actually I don't live in the city itself, but near it.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Oh, remember when Victoria got 60 cm of snow in one day? LOL.


I know.. I was here shovelling it :(
Its finally gone and the flowers are starting to bloom again.

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Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP no.. Victoria :)

Oh, remember when Victoria got 60 cm of snow in one day? LOL.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Please refrain from insulting other people's weather. I live near Toronto and it will be very cold next week. You from Vancouver?


GASP no.. Victoria :)

BTW, I wasn't insulting your weather.. I was insulting your city
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.


Ohhh head hurts... to many big words/numbers/graphs.. ouch

Link
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. its KOG's fault.. his weather sucks big time... apparently the centre of the universe (Toronto, aka Hell) has finally frozen over :)

Please refrain from insulting other people's weather. I live near Toronto and it will be very cold next week (see post 233). You from Vancouver?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.


Hey.. like Presslord.. I just post em as I sees em.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
With the weather I have been getting lately.. I would agree with this article....

Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years...... more

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:235

Keeper can keep it!



We are back to golfing again.. finally
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RE:235

Keeper can keep it!

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:Bjanmama
Charleston was known as "Little Barbados" in the 1600's - Meals certainly improved with Gullah (West African) and Barbadian influences! (Sorry, Cotillion - folks visit the UK for reasons other than cuisine)

Orcasystems - Why did you leave the front door open - close it already, don't let all tht cold air out.

MODIFIED FOR CLARITY


Actually.. its KOG's fault.. his weather sucks big time... apparently the centre of the universe (Toronto, aka Hell) has finally frozen over :)
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Post #226

Thanks for that link atmo...

It feels like wintertime on the Southshore today...
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Wow, Thursday morning will be very, very cold here in S. Ontario. From what I estimate, we'll have wind chills approaching -40 (Celcius or Farenheit). Arrgh, I have to walk!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
RE:Bjanmama
Charleston was known as "Little Barbados" in the 1600's - Meals certainly improved with Gullah (West African) and Barbadian influences! (Sorry, Cotillion - folks visit the UK for reasons other than cuisine)

Orcasystems - Why did you leave the front door open - close it already, don't let all tht cold air out.

MODIFIED FOR CLARITY
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
With the weather I have been getting lately.. I would agree with this article....

Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years...... more
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#226- Oh thanks so much, atmoaggie- that is really helpful- you all are so very helpful- its like what a real university is supposed to be like- and most were- some still are- never mind all that- but thanks.

Re225- Hey KEH- I love Charlotte- usually fly through there on my way to Ca. Knew folks in S. Carolina know the Bajan connections-i.e. the English and Irish that left Barbados as the plantations consolidated and there was no more room for the small farmers and indentured servants- we are twinned with Cahleston because it was built largely by Bajans and they colonised N. Carolina as well. as you clearly know.

One of my special memories is when I lived in Jersey and every Easter we'd head for the Fiddler's Convention in Union Grove ( and I've been to many others) and since I had been to university in Ireland and am part Irish was really into the connection between Irish, American and British Caribbean folk music
Here in the land of calypso and reggae we also have a Celtic music festival!

But since off topic- back to climate and diet- sure right about the British, no wonder they died like flies- problem now is that people here are exposed to all kinds of stuff from N. america and have gotten away from the diet that has so many centenarians on the island- but they will be the last- until more people go back to the basic tropical/mediteranean diet that kept peole strong and healthy. Re your comments on the body- remember the Inuits eat all that whale blubber and other fats that would kill the rest of us- and aborigines eat plants that store water and they can conserve water like camels- so their electrrolytes must operate different than people in more temperate climates. Then I started thinking about all the people who live in Death Valley- Inyo could speak to that or even in Central Cal,and other places where the summerAugust-Sept often has a week or so of 120 and at least a month or so of around 100-115 -air con helps- but people were living there (Euro descent) over 200 years ago- so..
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Hey folks- know everyone up north is settling down to more football- or getting things done before football-
just noticed on futuremet's greatMetEd site that they have a new module called Climate and Health- focuses on some of the things we've been discussing. Adios
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228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOURTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
1:50 AM Australian EST January 12 2009
=========================================

At 1:00 am AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [987 hPa] located at 16.2S 140.9E or 120 kms southwest of Kowanyama and 190 kms east-northeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The Cyclone has moved east at 6 knots during the past 4 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth later this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the coast later this morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island during the next 6 to 12 hours.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide will be generated between Cape Keerweer and the Gilbert River Mouth. The normal tide will be near low at crossing time and water levels are not expected to exceed HAT by any significant amount, however large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf will continue to produce tidal levels above HAT and squally monsoon showers during the next few days. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning folks,
Been unseasonably warm in Charleston (70F yesterday). First cold front will get us back to our normal January (high 50'sF). End of next week is when we will be hit with unseasonally cold weather (low 40's). My little heater gets the room up to 60's F when temps in 40's - will be interesting to see what it gets down to at night with lows in the 20's F. I think I will be getting out the long johns and extra quilts.


In SE LA, looks like we might not see 60 degrees for a week or more. Certainly not 70+. Cool!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Bjanmama:
Oh and thank you futuremet and everyone else for all the very helpful links to sites for studying meteorology.
Hopefully, by hurricane season I will have learned a gereat deal more than now- still will be a very novice novice but will understand a lot more of the techical discussion.
(hopefully- maybe not- but at least know what some terms mean!)


No prob. Just remembered one more (mostly because I was testing links on my webpage): http://www.weatherdictionary.com/

If you see a term you may not know the definition to, just put it in and get a fairly concise definition. Try it...geostrophic, MCS (acronyms too!), isodrosotherm, and NWS abbreviations.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
RE:222. Bjanmama
Indeed the relationship of food is very interesting. My general recommendation to visitors to Charleston in the summer, is to eat bananas, melons etc. and drink water. I caution that in my experience a headache is often the first sympton of dehydration. This is not something for which I have scientific documentaion, but has always worked for me.
I have no problem believing that people develop an ability to throw off body heat or to hold on to body heat as they adapt to an environment. Perhaps a mechanism to increase body fat content (insulation) for cold climes?? and to hold fluids/electrolytes for hot climes??
It is hard to imagine the europeans in wool, when arriving in Barbadoes - Yikes. It is not surprising to me that the Irish who had been "Barbadosed" did not fair well on plantations.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
224. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
10:50 PM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 10:00 pm AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [987 hPa] located at 15.9S 140.3E or 145 kms northeast of Mornington Island and 185 kms north northwest of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The Cyclone has moved east at 8 knots during the past 4 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth on Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Monday morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island during the next 12 hours.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide will be generated between Cape Keerweer and the Gilbert River Mouth. The normal tide will be near low at crossing time and water levels are not expected to exceed HAT by any significant amount, however large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf will continue to produce tidal levels above HAT and squally monsoon showers during the next few days. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and tides.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 141.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.1S 143.0E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 17.1S 143.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
Deep convection wraps 0.9 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.5. MET is 2.5. PAT is 3.0. PAT used as final T.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664
Oh and thank you futuremet and everyone else for all the very helpful links to sites for studying meteorology.
Hopefully, by hurricane season I will have learned a gereat deal more than now- still will be a very novice novice but will understand a lot more of the techical discussion.
(hopefully- maybe not- but at least know what some terms mean!)
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Good morning everyone- the moon was so bright out here in the middle of the Atlantic last night, there was no need for artificial light- there were some low lying clouds and it really lit them up- was quite beautiful. This morning it is now 89F with a heat index of 90; winds only abt 3mph from the SSW, pressure steady 30.12 and everyone, especially the thousands of tourists,will be headed for the sea to soak all day when not working on broiling their skin.

Re 192 KEH continuing the temperature and the body and also comfort zones topic. I take your well made point KEH- but would like to back up - First the scientists that began to study these things were largely British and French ( and other Euros) during the heyday of Imperialism when they had colonies all over the world. they took it for granted that their "world", basically England, but the temperate zones as they called them, were the optimum temperatures. They used to say the tropics were the "white man's grave" not because of disease per se, tho that too, but because they couldn't deal with the heat and work the hard physical labour demended at the time- over time those who stayed on adjusted- as in parts of India, Australia, the Caribbean, Africa etc. They also over centuries (they balked at this for a long, long time- for example thought banas were only good for slaves, couldn't abide curry etc.) changed their diets to include more of the foods of indigenous peoples. They explored the coldest parts of the globe last- and noted the ability of the Inuit and other peoples to thrive in what was totally inhospitable climate to them.
Many moons later scientists have studied the effects of temperature and climate on the body and did all kinds of experiments on aboriginies, Sherpas, Incas and the Inuit. They found that there were actual physical differences between these people and people from temperate climates that allowed them to thrive in what temperate people ( note our vocabulary) "hostile","inhospitable"environements Why mountain climbers or even visitors to Machu Pichu can have lung and heart failure in the Andes, (or even in Mexico city as I found out); and there were body changes in the Inuit re cold and Aborigines for hot. So it is relative- also those Europeans that have lived for generations in the tropics have what we call "hot blood" too and are "comfortable" in this morning's near 90degrees- but are cold in the low 70's, even though their ancestors may have come from Lapland.

What is of concern now tho is the growing heat and humidity and we do not know how long it will take before our internal temperature gauge adjusts. Everyone I know in the Caribbean not only notes the high SST's but how hot this is for January- but fortunately no humidity- summers are getting more difficult, especially because of the proximity to the Equator- you feel the heat and humidity more
I'm sorry I don't know of any scientific studies done recently on this- do you? anyone?

Cimate and diet is another interesting topic.

I also note this am from AP and on MSN there is an article on the growing worries over Yellowstone- wish I knew how to cut and paste for this blog. anyone can help??
Have a good day everyone and keep warm all you Inuits and you too Cotillion!
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221. unf97
Good morning to everyone here on the WU blog. It has been quite awhile since I checked in here. Happy New Year to everyone out there and my wishes to all for a healthy and prosperous 2009. It will be interesting to see how the Atlantic basin will behave when hurricane season commences in June. Meanwhile, we have been enjoying quite an unseasonable warm spell since mid-December here in NE FL. The normal high in Jax this time of year is 64 degrees and the normal low is 42. Temperatures have been averaging 10-15 degrees above normal during this period. We haven't had a freeze officially recorded at Jax since Dec. 13. A very significant pattern change over North America is finally beginning to evolve, and old man winter will be back in full force, especially late this week and into next weekend. I just checked the lastest GFS model runs and the upper level trough really deepens sharply across the Eastern ConUS. A huge arctic High Pressure near 1060 plunges southward out of the Western Canadian provinces into the Northern Plains by Thursday. The High center will then drop into the SE US region Friday-Saturday period. This will guarantee temps averaging as much as 15-20 below average in many areas, especially late this week. This will likely be the coldest air mass of the season for most in the Eastern ConUS if the latest runs verify. Here in Jax, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see minimum temps in mid 20s by Saturday morning (1/17/09), or possibly colder.
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Good morning folks,
Been unseasonably warm in Charleston (70F yesterday). First cold front will get us back to our normal January (high 50'sF). End of next week is when we will be hit with unseasonally cold weather (low 40's). My little heater gets the room up to 60's F when temps in 40's - will be interesting to see what it gets down to at night with lows in the 20's F. I think I will be getting out the long johns and extra quilts.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting Cotillion:
Woah, what happened to the Panthers last night?


Congrats on the Ravens -
The Panthers game was a nightmare, an embarassment - Yikes!
Cardinals played well - Panthers were a mess
Have no idea what happened. Panthers over confident - Birthday party the night before????
Cardinals wanted it more
I am hoping the Ravens can pull it off.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mornington West to Cape Keerweer
are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting
the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:57pm on Sunday the 11th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.

At 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST] TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE was estimated to be 140
kilometres northeast of Mornington Island and 190 kilometres north northwest of
Karumba, moving east at 9 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast
Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York
Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth on Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop about the coast
between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the
coast on Monday morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island
during the next 12 hours.

Coastal residents between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide. The sea is likely to rise well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to
the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be
prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to
do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf are already
producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape
York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these
damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte at 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 140.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

People between Cape Keer Weer and Aurukun should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Sunday 11 January [10:30 pm CST
Sunday 11 January].

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16014
Morning Cot -- sorry I don't know -- I watch weather -- not sports LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Woah, what happened to the Panthers last night?

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Arctic Express on the Way Flat Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Soak up your last two days of mid 70's, we're going into the freezer. A series of cold fronts will usher in our first arctic air mass of the season beginning Monday. Looks like we won't escape wearing booties this winter. Small N swell has been pushed back to Monday then a bigger NNW for Tuesday

Morning....hummmmm, booties -- might be too cold for me
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
214. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
First warning from JTWC on TC 07P (Charlotte)

35 kts 996 MB
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664
213. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ELEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
4:50 PM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 4:00 pm AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [990 hPa] located at 16.2S 139.8E or 85 kms northeast of Mornington Island and 180 kms northwest of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The Cyclone has moved southeast at 8 knots during the past 6 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east-southeastwards over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and up to 150 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Aurukun and Mornington Island during the next 12 hours.

Coastal residents between Aurukun and Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding is expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Also, gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf are already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape Keer Weer to the Mornington Island.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Aurukun to Cape Keer Weer.

The Cyclone Watch between Aurukun to Weipa has been CANCELLED.

Additional Information
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 140.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.7S 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.4S 143.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 17.8S 141.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
This system is under the influence of strong upper level divergence associated with an upper trough over southeast Australia. Deepening is occurring curved band wrap 0.7 giving DT of 3.0. PAT suggests T3.5 but given constraints have stayed with T3.0. Conditions are favourable for further developments until landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664
212. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THIRTEEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL DONGO (05-20082009)
10:00 AM Reunion January 11 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dongo (985 hPa) located at 21.8S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
========================
70 NM in from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 24.7S 70.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 27.2S 71.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 31.9S 73.6E - 40 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 36.2S 80.5E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

Additional Information
=======================
Stronger winds extend far from the center in the southeastern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Wind extension has been measured thanks to recent satellite data. DONGO keeps on tracking southward. It is expected to stay on this track for the next few days. Environmental start to be less favorable for further intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664
211. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Charlotte Intensity Forecast
===============================

0hr 16.0S 139.7E - Category 1
6hr 16.0S 140.2E - Category 1
12hr 16.1S 140.8E - Category 2
24hr 16.5S 142.2E - Category 1
48hr 17.3S 144.7E - Tropical Low


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 49664

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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