The global tropical cyclone season of 2008: below average

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2009

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It was a below average year for global tropical cyclone activity, and the destructive power of these storms was close to the lowest levels observed since since reliable records began in the early 1980s. However, the the total number of global deaths from tropical cyclones was the highest since 1991, thanks to the estimated 140,000 people killed in Myanmar from Tropical Cyclone Nargis. The total number of storms world-wide was 90, slightly lower that the average from the past 25 years of 92 (Figure 1). The global number of hurricanes, intense hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), and Category 4 and stronger storms were all below average. Only one Category 5 storm was recorded in 2008--Super Typhoon Jangmi, which attained winds of 165 mph at 06 GMT on September 27, as it approached the north coast of Taiwan. The last time so few Category 5 storms were recorded globally was in 1974, when there were none. The 2008 hurricane season was much above average in the Atlantic, but the Atlantic only accounts for about 13% of all global tropical cyclone activity.


Figure 1. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2008. The three numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2008, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses), followed by the record (in red). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's new International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A notable feature of the 2008 tropical cyclone season was the low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season. ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed. ACE for an individual storm is computed by squaring the maximum sustained winds of the storm at each 6-hourly advisory, and summing up over the entire lifetime of the storm. The ACE value for 2008's storms was close to the low values on record seen in 2000-2001 and the early 1980s (Figure 2). Part of the reason for the low ACE values in 2008 (and in 2007) was due to the presence of a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The last major La Niña event (2000-2001) is clearly evident in Figure 2 as a minimum in global and Northern Hemisphere ACE.


Figure 2. Global (green) and Northern Hemisphere (blue) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 24 month running sum through December 31, 2008. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months. Image credit: Ryan Maue, Florida State University.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
The 2008 global tropical cyclone season shows that these storms are subject to large natural variations. Given this high natural variability and the short record of good data we have (just 25 years or so), it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. The situation is different in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record, and the storms seem to be more sensitive to changes in Sea Surface Temperature. I'll be putting together a full review of the scientific progress on understanding the link between climate change and Atlantic and global hurricane activity over the coming few months.


Figure 3. Satellite image of 2008's strongest tropical cyclone at maximum intensity: Super Typhoon Jangmi. Jangmi was rated a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds at 06 GMT Sep 27, 2008, making it the only Category 5 storm of 2008. The storm eventually weakened to a low-end Category Four before striking Taiwan. It left two people dead and caused at least $800 million (2008 USD) in damages. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Jeff Masters

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361. KEHCharleston
4:18 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting Skyepony:
Don't forget to protect the pipes from freezing.


Indeed, we leave our spouts dripping water - does anyone know of anything else to do? Do you leave hot water as well as cold water running?

I will not be able to add insulation to pipes. On a side note, here in Charleston, one of the problems with temps in the teens, is that water mains can break. So I guess I will check my water supply. Would need to add to it for the upcoming hurricane season any way.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
360. Skyepony (Mod)
4:15 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Don't forget to protect the pipes from freezing.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37187
359. KEHCharleston
4:14 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Congrats on the Gators, BTW!

Quoting TampaSpin:


Rum is good just bought a 1.75ml bottle also but, it does thin the blood and actually make you colder. Also, beware of the space heaters as many fires break out in homes with these and if your going to burn a fire in the fireplace for the first time test only a small fire first just to make sure the venting is clear. Have seen meany surprises before.....LOL

Very good point about the space heaters. I use a "safe heat" device (I forget which principle it is based on). It even has a thermostat - which will be a moot point if it gets as cold as we think. I considered buying a space heater, but decided against the expense (only gets anywhere near this cold about 5 days a year). In addition, as you pointed out, too many fires associated with them.
I could always bug out and go to my sisters house - she has conventional heat and lots of it. I would rather stay home, since the cat would be freaked out by the dog.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
358. fireflymom
4:08 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Yikes cold coming. About the Crape Myrtles-they look best just shaped and not cut into fists. They will survive and bloom well either way they are tough trees. They make great safe Parrot perches too.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
357. TampaSpin
4:01 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Which brings me to another question - what do you do to prepare for the cold blast.

My little heater only brings the room I live in up to about 15F above outside temp, so I my plans include - plastic on the windows and stuff cracks in windows and doors (can make quite a difference - I will find out how much). In addition I will purchase ingredients for large pot of chili, purchase sweat pants and hose, purchase rum for my coffee in the morning, make sure I have plenty of coffee and hot chocolate on hand.
When 28F or less is predicted, I generally keep water running. I have already brought my plants inside. Since I am off Friday, I plan to stay inside all day (probably in bed under the covers with a good book).


Rum is good just bought a 1.75ml bottle also but, it does thin the blood and actually make you colder. Also, beware of the space heaters as many fires break out in homes with these and if your going to burn a fire in the fireplace for the first time test only a small fire first just to make sure the venting is clear. Have seen meany surprises before.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
356. KEHCharleston
3:39 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its coming prepare to care for the four legged friends you care for....they will need help.


Which brings me to another question - what do you do to prepare for the cold blast.

My little heater only brings the room I live in up to about 15F above outside temp, so I my plans include - plastic on the windows and stuff cracks in windows and doors (can make quite a difference - I will find out how much). In addition I will purchase ingredients for large pot of chili, purchase sweat pants and hose, purchase rum for my coffee in the morning, make sure I have plenty of coffee and hot chocolate on hand.
When 28F or less is predicted, I generally keep water running. I have already brought my plants inside. Since I am off Friday, I plan to stay inside all day (probably in bed under the covers with a good book).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
355. conchygirl
3:33 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Morning all: Looks like some right nippy weather coming our way soon!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
354. TampaSpin
3:18 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
TampaSpin --- please say it isn't so... don't want "el Norte" in my neighborhood.

Orca -- I don't want to be mean -- but if you send me a snow wish... I'm holding up my special mirror so it goes back to you.

Mel - Hold off all pruning till you are sure the chance of frost has past.... if you need to protect it use a sheet so the tree can breath... I love crepe myrtle

Reading about Fiji --guess there's no such thing as paradise.

Where's Bonedog???? Is he missing or buried under a snow bank?

Okay - that's it for me - chickens becken & coop needs to be set up for cooler temps, then it's off to the Barns.... Horse love & tasks always make a grey day seem less dismal... They are my sunshine!


Its coming prepare to care for the four legged friends you care for....they will need help.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
353. surfmom
3:15 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
TampaSpin --- please say it isn't so... don't want "el Norte" in my neighborhood.

Orca -- I don't want to be mean -- but if you send me a snow wish... I'm holding up my special mirror so it goes back to you.

Mel - Hold off all pruning till you are sure the chance of frost has past.... if you need to protect it use a sheet so the tree can breath... I love crepe myrtle

Reading about Fiji --guess there's no such thing as paradise.

Where's Bonedog???? Is he missing or buried under a snow bank?

Okay - that's it for me - chickens becken & coop needs to be set up for cooler temps, then it's off to the Barns.... Horse love & tasks always make a grey day seem less dismal... They are my sunshine!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
352. TampaSpin
3:05 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view.....Dangerous Conditions coming in ConUS!

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
351. eddye
2:51 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
how cold will south fla get upper 30 for next friday
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
350. NEwxguy
2:42 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Even the deep south is going to feel the effects of this cold blast,still have my doubts about the big storm this week.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15568
349. TampaSpin
2:26 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Thursday 7am temperatures...........burrrr..

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
348. KEHCharleston
2:00 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
RE: TampaSpin #323 and Patrap #312
Quoting Patrap:
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link
Yikes! Wish those numbers were not degrees Centigrade, but instead the difference from our norms.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
347. biff4ugo
1:41 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
I have spent alot of time in Japan, They use crepe myrtles and ginkos as urban landscaping alot, and trim them back severly each year. The trees evetually grow knobbs, like gauls on the ends of the branches where they are groomed to year after year. It is a cool look, that I think is cool.
Now I live in florida and prune my trees that way. They respond very well to it, and bloom over and over. I give them an inch or two more each year, and they send shoots out that grow 5-9 feet tall over the summer.
If you don't like the knobby look, just trim them a bit shorter every 3rd year or so.

Oh, yes, this is what you call crepe murder-above. You prune them after all the leaves fall off in the fall. That way the new shoots grow as soon as the sap gets to them in the spring.

I agree that pruning them down to the ground is a bad idea. That will lead to lots of "sucker" shoots and make a thicket, rather than trunks and a tree-like habit.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1536
346. melwerle
1:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Thank you! I was kind of waiting to see what to do - still too cold here to hack though. I thought I didn't want to do what folks call "crape murder"...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
345. KEHCharleston
1:34 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Good morning folks,

Quoting melwerle:
It's a freestanding...i haven't pruned it yet...i read you shouldn't do it till Feb but I don't know how to take care of it.


My only caution has to do with how much you prune. My sister's crepe myrtles were pruned down to the base of the plant. (IMHO) it was not surprising that it developed lots of new limbs at the base of the plant. After a few years of that, it starts looking more like a bush, than a tree. (cause and effect or coincidence??) Just in case it was cause and effect, perhaps you should only cut back to where you would like the new limbs to form. Can anyone verify my theory?

MODIFIED - Ahhh... post #343 confirms my theory - thanks Vortex
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
344. biff4ugo
1:31 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
I want to see how the ACE score compares with the total number of storms, number of cat5 storms, and the El Nino score average for the same time period.
Why was 2004-6 such a huge record year, but there are two peaks that look much higher in the previous decade.
How do the Solar cycle and AMO cycle overlay on the ACE score? Both of those should be on a downward trend now, right?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1536
343. vortfix
1:28 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
The practice of chopping off the tops of crape myrtle has become very commonplace. Many people believe that it is required to promote flowering; some prune because the plant is too large for the space provided; others see their neighbors doing it and feel the need to follow suit. There are some instances in which heavy pruning is necessary, but light pruning is usually all that is needed. The type and amount of pruning depends on the desired shape and size of the plant.

Link


There ya go Mel.
That's as far off-topic as I'm willing to go on the subject.
Good luck with your myrtle!
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46053
342. Bjanmama
1:27 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Good morning Pottery, Baha, Surfmom-everyone- re#294:Baha thanks so much for your explanation- we argue about this all the time here, and it is true that Barbados suffered much more direct hits in the 19th century- and a lot of deaths and destruction-
of course they didn't know what was coming much of the time- so no preparation and the majority of people- the slaves and then small farmers and field hands lived in flimsy structures, except those who who were lucky enough to live in what we call "slave huts", solid stone structures, some still standing

it really was only Janet in the 20th, with lots of near enough misses to cause damage, but still relatively unscathed compared to many other places..

I am having trouble with the blog. After I post I have to go out completely and come back in to see who al has posted after me. and it also takes a long time for the blog to come on. Do not understand it. Does anyone else have this trouble?

Have to run now-, for those of you in the cold, keep warm and do hope there is no major nor-easter in a few days, life has become snarled up enough on the east coast.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
341. melwerle
1:17 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
It's a freestanding...i haven't pruned it yet...i read you shouldn't do it till Feb but I don't know how to take care of it.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
340. PensacolaDoug
12:58 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
This from PRAVDA.

I found this at Accuweather. JB's column.
Apparently russian scientists arn't buying GW.


Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
Front page / Science / Planet Earth
11.01.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru


Pages: 123

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

Gregory F. Fegel

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
339. vortfix
12:42 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Floods in Fiji kill 8; thousands seek shelter

Pacific island nation declares state of emergency in hard- hit resort area


SUVA, Fiji - Authorities rushed on Monday to deliver clean drinking water and other supplies to thousands of villagers who fled flooding from tropical storms that have killed at least eight people on this Pacific island nation.

The government declared a state of emergency in the hardest-hit western districts of the main island of Veti Levu, where dozens of international resorts are located. There have been no reports of tourists in trouble in that area.

The airport in Nadi, the island's main link to the outside, remained opened, but the city was flooded and some tourists were being turned back to their points of origin.

Floodwaters were slowly subsiding Monday in some of the villages worst hit, the government said, but forecasters predicted more heavy rain later this week.

"There's another depression heading toward Fiji within the next two days and that will bring an additional threat," Aisea Qumihajelo, the acting chief of disaster management, told The Associated Press on Monday.

Crops washed out
Four days of torrential rains have flooded the towns of Nadi, Ba, Sigatoka and Labasa and many rural villages on Veti Levu, he said. Sugar cane crops have been washed out, roads severed and bridges submerged by surging floodwaters.

Authorities said six people have drowned in floodwaters and two were killed in a landslide.

More than 6,000 people have been forced into emergency shelters in schools and other public buildings.

The military ruler, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, declared an emergency in parts of Veti Levu, allowing authorities to impose night curfews to deter looting.

New Zealand announced $59,000 in funding to assist relief efforts by the Fiji Red Cross.

Link
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46053
338. vortfix
12:30 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
It depends on how you want to shape the plant Mel.
Is it a free-standing specimen or is it in a planter bed or hedge?
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46053
337. melwerle
12:27 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Oh...does anyone know anything about pruning crape murtles? I have one and I've read about a zillion ways to do it but my neighbor insists i hack the whole top off...

Any clues?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
336. melwerle
12:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Morning - coffee hasn't kicked in yet. And I think it's cold outside.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
335. vortfix
12:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Good morning Pottery.
After the above normal temps in Florida the past month...we're all going to feel very cold soon too.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46053
334. pottery
12:14 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
......oh, and Good Morning to the Gentlemen, and other scoundrels as well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23903
333. vortfix
12:09 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Break out the woolies FL residents!


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
720 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

...STREAK OF WARM WEATHER COMING TO AN END...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE U.S. IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONCE AGAIN WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE OVERALL RIDGING THAT WE
HAVE SEE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST FOUR WEEKS WHICH HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY
THREE OR FOUR DAYS.

THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BRING OUR STREAK OF
RATHER WARM WEATHER TO AN END AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THESE FRONTS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
NIGHT AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE
RECORD COLD LEVELS FROM SOME WINTERS IN THE PAST.

THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
MONDAY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA EASTWARD THROUGH
LAKELAND AND WINTER HAVEN.

A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING TUESDAY AND
THEN BE REINFORCED BY A THIRD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.
BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SINCE EARLY
DECEMBER WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME SPOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO PROTECT VEGETATION AND PETS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MAY SEVERELY DAMAGE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS. IN ADDITION...IF YOU PLAN
ON BEING OUTDOORS LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...BE SURE
TO BUNDLE UP AND DRESS IN LAYERS. IF YOU PLAN ON USING SPACE
HEATERS PLEASE REMEMBER THEY CAN BE A FIRE HAZARD...AND YOU SHOULD
KEEP LINENS...BLANKETS...CURTAINS...AND OTHER FLAMMABLES AWAY FROM
THE HEATER AT ALL TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE OR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS UPCOMING COLD SPELL.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46053
332. pottery
12:09 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
Good Morning, Ladies.
A wonderful Dawn here this Day.
Was 70F when I got out of bed. I thought I was going to freeze !!
Thanks to the Coffee, I will probably survive this .......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23903
331. surfmom
12:04 PM GMT on January 12, 2009
LOL TangoCat -- isn't fun to see how our critters know when something is special to us.... but ahhh will she nibble the greenery???
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
330. aquak9
11:57 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Nothing in the ground yet, surfmom. will carry the tray in and out- and TangoCat sits nearby, babysitting.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25704
329. surfmom
11:49 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Aqua - you might need to put a blankie on your baby sprouts & starts !!!! Maybe this front will fizzle out......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
328. aquak9
11:12 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Surfmom, I think Moon is just still sleepy. Feels like a halo around my eyes this morning, too.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25704
327. surfmom
11:10 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
saw that moon Halo last night, still quiet in SWFL 66 degrees, no cold front yet......but I'm sure El Norte will be knocking on my door.

Good Monday Morning.......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
326. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:37 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Highlight from the TD from Nadi

Beyond 48 hours, an upper trough moving in from the southwest may provide and opportunity for rapid or explosive development when the system reaches southwest of Fiji.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44481
325. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:36 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-F
18:00 PM FST January 12 2009
==================================

At 09:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Five-F (1000 hPa) located at 14.6S 160.6E ia reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position POOR based on infrared imagery with animation and periphery surface observations. Sea surface temperatures around 30-31C.

The system lies embedded in an active monsoonal trough, under the 250 HPA subtropical ridge in a weak shear environment and good upper diffluence. The system is characterized by pulsating convection at this stage with no persistent convection. Active convergence zone to the north maintains west to northwest 25 to 30 knot winds in the northern semi-circle, slighly displaced from the low level circulation center. The depression is expected to continue moving in a general southeast direction. Development may be inhibited by entrainment of dry air from the south in the short term but this scenario may change as the depression remains in a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. A high moving into the Tasman Sea in the next 36 to 48 hours provides a moderate southeast surge from the south. Beyond 48 hours, an upper trough moving in from the southwest may provide and opportunity for rapid or explosive development when the system reaches southwest of Fiji.

Most global models has not picked up the system but maintain a string of weak lows along the monsoonal trough.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44481
324. TheDawnAwakening
5:48 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Tampa I have my thoughts in my blog, but a more in depth analysis will be made after the 12z model runs. I am getting excited, but I hope I don't set myself up for disappointment.
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323. TampaSpin
5:43 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Click pic to set in motion loop......
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322. TheDawnAwakening
5:12 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Now I don't think this storm will even come that close, but the models do deepen this storm down to 952mb over the Labador region of Canada. I want to see what the 12z model consensus is before even getting much too excited for another bust of a storm which I don't want to happen again. Again a stronger storm, a colder air solution.
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321. Patrap
4:55 AM GMT on January 12, 2009


The Storm of the Century, also known as the ’93 Superstorm, No-Name Hurricane, the White Hurricane, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that occurred on March 12–March 15, 1993, on the East Coast of North America. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height the storm stretched from Canada to Central America, but its main impact was on the Eastern United States and Cuba. Areas as far south as central Alabama and Georgia received 6 to 8 inches (20 cm) of snow and areas such as Birmingham, Alabama, received up to 12 inches (30 cm) with isolated reports of 16 inches (41 cm). Even the Florida Panhandle reported up to 2 inches (5.1 cm), with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Florida and Cuba, hurricane-force winds produced extreme storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico, which along with scattered tornadoes killed dozens of people.
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320. gordydunnot
4:52 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
South fl. update, There is a large halo around the moon tonight. I know that means a change in the weather usually in the next 24 to 72 hrs. It usually means a little more significant weather change this far south as my memory serves. One of the last times I saw this occur was just before Wilma decided to pay a visit.All I am saying is this system that is approaching my be very energetic.
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319. HurricaneKing
4:50 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Well if its 990mb in Florida then what will it be like when it comes up here?<BR>
NNE from Florida would be a better track from that far south then a NE track as that would be too far southeast of my region for snows.


One hell of a storm. Probably my dream storm.
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318. TheDawnAwakening
4:44 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Well if its 990mb in Florida then what will it be like when it comes up here?

NNE from Florida would be a better track from that far south then a NE track as that would be too far southeast of my region for snows.
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317. HurricaneKing
4:37 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Tha

That would sound more like the Superstorm of 1993 and I would probably end up with a lot of rain instead as the trough axis would be further west. I am starting to see the explosive deepening starting to occur earlier with the models for this storm, but it needs to occur sooner and a lot faster.


It doesnt have to be that far inland. We've had a couple of storms do just what I've said. With alot of energy already offshore, offshore is where it would stay.
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316. TheDawnAwakening
4:31 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Tha
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I want it to be 990mb off of Florida tracking between nne and ne. That way NC gets a big snow too.


That would sound more like the Superstorm of 1993 and I would probably end up with a lot of rain instead as the trough axis would be further west. I am starting to see the explosive deepening starting to occur earlier with the models for this storm, but it needs to occur sooner and a lot faster.
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315. HurricaneKing
4:25 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
I'm sorry, but the storm early this week is really getting better and better and only hope tomorrow's model runs say a big huge nor'easter sitting off the NC coastline at 990mb tracking NE ward slowly but surely and we see rapid deepening of the storm as it tracks east of my latitude.

Again its still speculation until its snowing hard and blowing hard.


I want it to be 990mb off of Florida tracking between nne and ne. That way NC gets a big snow too.
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314. TheDawnAwakening
4:11 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
I'm sorry, but the storm early this week is really getting better and better and only hope tomorrow's model runs say a big huge nor'easter sitting off the NC coastline at 990mb tracking NE ward slowly but surely and we see rapid deepening of the storm as it tracks east of my latitude.

Again its still speculation until its snowing hard and blowing hard.
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313. futuremet
3:48 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link


Wow
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312. Patrap
3:44 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link
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311. AussieStorm
3:43 AM GMT on January 12, 2009
Cyclone Charlotte downgraded to a low
Article from: AAP

January 12, 2009 01:46pm

TROPICAL Cyclone Charlotte has been downgraded to a tropical low as it loses intensity over Queensland's Gulf Country.

Queensland's first cyclone of the season made land about 4am (AEST) today near the mouth of the Gilbert River, 305km north-west of Georgetown.

It weakened to a tropical low about 10am (AEST) but was continuing to bring heavy rain and winds to parts of north Queensland.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Ben Annells said heavy falls of between 100mm to 200mm had fallen in the Gulf Country and north tropical coast.

Mr Ansell said ex tropical cyclone Charlotte was expected to weaken while it moved south-east, and then south-west, over the southern Cape York area.

Meanwhile, a monsoon trough is responsible for falls of between 200mm to 400mm around Cairns early on Monday.

Around 100 homes in Cairns and Port Douglas were flooded and scores of roads closed due to heavy rain.

Cairns Mayor Val Schier said there did not appear to be much damage, although volunteers were busy sandbagging ahead of a possible second deluge on Tuesday.

Cairns experienced a 2.6m king tide about 10.20am (AEST).

A 2.3m tide is expected at 10pm (AEST) and another 3m tide on Tuesday morning.

"I just looked outside my window and there was a person actually rowing a boat up the street immediately outside the council chambers," Ms Schier said.

"So the king tide that came in this morning coupled with torrential rain has made for huge flooding."

She said emergency services were watching the weather to gauge when floodwaters were likely to recede.

Tuesday's king tide could bring more flooding, she said.

Ms Schier asked residents not to drive through floodwaters, which could trap motorists, or push water into homes.

Yorkeys Knob resident Simone Roseler said flooding was widespread across the city, while her suburb, about 15km north of Cairns' CBD, was cut off by water.

"This morning our street was like one big, flowing river and we were scared our car was going to float away," Ms Roseler said.

"And the cane fields look like lakes."

Heavy rain was expected to move south from Cairns to Townsville in the next few days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.