Top weather story of 2008: Cyclone Nargis

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:04 PM GMT on January 05, 2009

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The top weather story of 2008 has to be the catastrophic impact of Cyclone Nargis on the nation of Myanmar (formerly Burma). Nargis (the Urdu word for 'daffodil') hit the low-lying, densely populated Irrawaddy Delta region of Myanmar on May 2, 2008. Nargis' Category 4 winds of 135 mph brought a storm surge of up to 4 meters (13 feet) to the coast, inundating regions up to 40 km inland. At least 140,000 people perished, according to official estimates by the U.N. and the government of Myanmar. This makes Nargis the ninth deadliest cyclone in world history. The storm made 800,000 people homeless, destroying 450,000 homes. Approximately 2.4 million people were significantly affected by the cyclone, and total damage has been estimated at $4 billion.

Recovery from the cyclone will take years. The loss of livestock, buffalo for plowing, fishing nets, and boats was near total in many regions of the coast. Fallen trees still block many transportation routes, and the much of the rich farmland used to grow crops has been made salty by the inland penetration of Nargis' storm surge. About 30% of the villages in the devastated region still have a high proportion of their homes using plastic or canvas sheeting for roofs or walls, and undernutrition and lack of clean water are still problematic. However, international aid has made a big difference, and much of the affected area has benefited from the aid.

A once-in-500-year event for Myanmar?
Tropical cyclones are uncommon in Myanmar, which has had only six Category 1 or stronger storms since 1970, and eleven since 1948. Nargis is the third strongest cyclone on record to hit Myanmar, and the deadliest and most damaging. The previous highest death toll from a tropical cyclone in Myanmar was 187, during the Category 1 storm that hit on May 7, 1975. Nargis is the first major tropical cyclone to hit Myanmar since Category 3 Cyclone Mala hit on April 28, 2006. Mala hit a less populated area less prone to storm surge, and killed 22 people and damaged 6000 buildings. It is remarkable that no other tropical cyclone over the past 300 years has hit the Irrawaddy Delta and caused major loss of life. An unusually strong and far-southward extending trough of low pressure turned Nargis to the east much farther south than is the norm for the North Indian Ocean. In the pre-1970 years, there is only one hurricane-force storm recorded to have hit Burma, a Category 1 cyclone in 1936 that killed 36 people. A significant cyclone hitting the Irrawaddy Delta causing thousands of deaths would very likely have been recorded, had this happened any time in the past 300 years. Such events were recorded in both India and Bangladesh during that period. Nargis appears to have been the only major tropical cyclone to hit the Irrawaddy River Delta in recorded history, and may be a once-in-500-year event.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nargis shortly before landfall. Image credit:NASA.

Nargis' storm surge
Nargis took the worst possible path, tracking right along the low-lying, heavily populated Irrawaddy River Delta. Moreover, the storm hit at high tide, greatly increasing the impact of the storm surge. Tidal range in the Irrawaddy River Delta is about five feet between low tide and high tide, and the death toll would have been much, much lower had the storm hit at low tide. Further amplifying the storm surge's height was the fact that Nargis was moving rather slowly--about 11 mph. Slow moving tropical cyclones can drive a much higher storm surge into narrow estuaries that connect to the ocean, since there is more time for the surge to penetrate inland. Nargis' track, forward speed, and high tide timing created a "perfect storm" able to cause an unprecedented storm surge in the Irrawaddy River Delta. The only saving grace was the relatively small size of the cyclone.

Human factors helped make the storm surge worse. About 80% of the mangrove forest along Myanmar's coast has been destroyed, to make room for rice paddies and shrimp farms. Mangroves--tall, gnarly, salt-tolerant trees--act to blunt and slow down the progress of the storm surge and reduce the wave action of the ocean. Had more mangroves been left to survive, the impact of the storm surge would have been lessened. How much so, no one can say, for there are few observations of the storm surge to verify models of this. Keep in mind that the mangroves are far more effective in protecting against a sudden, powerful wave like the 2004 tsunami, compared to the slower, hours-long inundation of a storm surge.


Figure 2. Topography of Myanmar, with track of Cyclone Nargis superimposed. Image credit: NASA.

Failure of the Myanmar government
Nargis was remarkable not only for its death toll, but for the failure of Myanmar's dictatorship to provide adequate warnings before the storm. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is responsible for tropical cyclones warnings in the North Indian Ocean, classified Nargis as a "severe cyclonic storm" three days prior to landfall, and warned of landfall in Myanmar of Nargis as a Category 1 or 2 storm. However, the official state-controlled New Light of Myanmar newspaper carried this forecast the day before landfall: "the severe tropical cyclone NARGIS...is forecast to cross the coast during the next 36 hours...Under the influence of this storm, rain or thundershowers will be widespread...frequent squalls with rough seas will be experienced off and along the Myanmar coast. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach [50] mph." This forecast was buried on page 15 of the miscellaneous section of the newspaper. No mention of hurricane-force winds or of Nargis' storm surge was made. However, the IMD does not make forecasts of storm surge, which is something that needs to be corrected in the future, according to an excellent assessment of Cyclone Nargis published in Nature by Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech. Dr. Webster also advocates that a relatively small investment by the developed world in improved warning systems and shelters for the region can dramatically lower death tolls and the money needed for aid responses for future storms. Sounds like a great investment to me!

Finally, Nargis was also remarkable for the initial refusal of Myanmar's government to allow foreign aid into the country after the storm. Over a week passed before significant aid was allowed in, which greatly exacerbated the suffering of the storm victims and undoubtedly led to a higher death toll.

Nargis links
Post-Nargis Joint Assessment (July 2008).
Post-Nargis Periodic Review I (December 2008).
Nature paper by Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech (July 2008).

My next blog post will be Wednesday or Thursday, when I'll continue to report on the major weather and climate events of 2008.

Jeff Masters

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340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:11 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20082009
16:00 PM Reunion January 8 2008
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 14.0S 70.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 70.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.0S 69.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.9S 67.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 17.2S 66.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)


Additional Information
=======================
Convection built last night remains active today, fed by a good monsoonal flow and a favorable upper level equatorward outflow. The system is expected to track southwest due to the low level ridge in the southeast, then southward as the trough arrive in the southwest. The system should go on intensifying with the setting up to (24HRS) of a new upper level outflow due to the polar westerly jet.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
339. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:08 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (1500z 08JAN)
=========================================
An area of convection (98S) located at 14.0S 70.2E or 420 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery and a 1226z SSMIS image continues to depict a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center with a defined low level circulation center and multiple bands of deep convection wrapping into the center. Previous ship reports a scatterometer data supporting 25-30 knot system with a surface low pressure of 1002 MB. Upper level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment, although currently hindered by moderate to high vertical wind shear, with good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperature and high ocean heat content. The low level circulation center is expected to track into lower vertical wind shear within 12-24 hours and should also tap into the midlatitude westerly flow to its south, resulting in improved poleward outflow which will allow the system to strengthen to 35 knots.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 MB. Based on the improved organization, tight banding, good radial outflow, and expected track into an improved environment, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
338. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:07 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Yup it is not Billy anymore.. this new low formed northeast of the remnants of Billy, which dissipated, is likely to form into a cyclone "Dongo".
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
337. conchygirl
3:55 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a great nite in Miami for a Gator feast coming Sooner than later......LOL
You bet!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
336. TampaSpin
3:22 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Looks like a great nite in Miami for a Gator feast coming Sooner than later......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
335. GBlet
2:29 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Oh great! Now I'm gonna get blamed for killin the blog....
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
334. GBlet
2:09 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
SURFER UP! Surfmom. Only waves I can see are the waves of dead prairie grass! Enjoy!
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
333. surfmom
2:04 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Well, the tide has vanished and taken' the swell with it. Currently we do have some fun, glassy lines in the waist /stomach high range. Only 2 tides today so we start out low and slowly will fill in all day.Wind will add some texture as the morning closes, so get out there now. Gulf Temp 66 Swell has dropped alot over night. 5-6ft at 8 secs usually equals waist high range. Wind has not totally died either. Should still be some fun waves.


There is no cheese for my whine this morning (brrrrr) -- got to suck it up... have an hour & change to ride a wave -enough talk and tapping of keys JUST GOT TO DO IT! Adios

Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
332. surfmom
1:58 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
skyepony/post 305 - Atlantic Overturning Circulation..... I scrolled back to see if you had a link to this or more of an explanation..didn't find any.......if you catch this...... I am going to assume this is different then upwelling? ...does it cause upwelling? or is just the speed/temp of the Gulf Stream.
The Moon Glow was lovely last night -- let's hope my herd didn't get into too much mischief.

Atmoaggie/Post 279- Question regarding the Japanese Global Resolving Model that figures in/resolves MJO --- will we have that for a reference during this year's Hurricane season?
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
331. Bobbyweather
1:58 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
According to the JTWC, the remains of Billy has dissipated.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
330. surfmom
1:02 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Wow -- Billy is a rather tenacious storm.

Hoping it warms up in Europe - spouse has a business trip planned for February. These temps. and weather will make my Florida man suffer.... hoping it warms by then.

Cot., the only thing this cold weather is good for (IMHO) is snuggling up with the furry four-leggeds.... it's 52 degrees this morning here in SWFL -- I know there are waves to surf w/thanks to the cold front and I could snitch out for a quick hour session before work..... but the cold... -- I feel like the dog... I really want to go out...but as soon as the temp hits my face...I run back in the house.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
329. biff4ugo
12:59 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
How does any storm get a warm core, next to Greenland, in January???

Hurricane Tebow is about to come ashore at 8 p.m. in Miami tonight. It is advised the people evacuate Sooners rather than later.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1579
328. Cotillion
12:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Blizzards in the south of France also.

Starting to warm up a little here though, which is nice.

(I mean, from -7 area to around freezing.)

Still remaining very cold at night, sharp drop each night to silly temperatures.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
327. BahaHurican
12:32 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Morning all.

The front came through here around 2:30 a. m. with a short burst of heavy rainfall. Definitely it's cooler this morning; yesterday at this time it was almost 10 degrees warmer. . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
326. barbamz
12:20 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
Hi, you all. Germany is freezing very much:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,599784,00.html
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
325. SevereHurricane
11:59 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Hades,

Wow! Billy's remnants are still spinning? It looks like it has potental for regeneration...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
324. surfmom
11:01 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Good Morning Hades --mischief so early???
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
323. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:39 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
ya me! I am flooding the blog now, haha

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
322. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:33 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
18:00 PM FST January 8 2009
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (998 hPa) located at 20.0S 174.0E reported moving southeast at 15 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral surface observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

Organization in the last 24 hours has not improved markedly with deep convection sheared to the east of low level circulation center. TD FOUR lies in a sheared environment with 20-30 knot winds at 250 hPa. An active convergence zone lies to the north of the system with 20 knot at the surface. A southeasterly surge remains to the south.

Development remains unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper trough from the west which will maintain a sheared environment. TD FOUR is expected to develop as a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
321. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:43 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0830z 08JAN)
==========================================
An area of convection (98S) located at 13.4S 69.2E or 420 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Based on multispectral satellite imagery, this area is a new developing low, seperate from the dissipated remnants of former tropical cyclone Billy which tracked westward and is located near 15.0S 66.0E. This position was moved 180 NM northeast of the previous position. Multispectral satellite imagery and a 0436z AMSU image indicates improved consolidation and convective banding wrapping into the low level circulation center with good inflow over the northeastern quadrant. A 0129z Quikscat image shows a somewhat elongated low level circulation cneter with many 20-25 knot unflagged winds and one 35 knot unflagged wind north of the center, associated with an intense area of deep convection. a 0000z ship report, 95 NM northeast, also indicate 33 knots with surface low pressure of 1004 MB. Upper level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment, although currently limited by moderate to high vertical wind shear with good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures and high ocean heat content. The low level circulation center is expected to track into lower vertical wind shera after 24 hours and should consolidate further

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 MB. Based on the improved organization, formative banding and good radial outflow, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
320. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:16 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
ZONE PERTURBEE 05-20082009
10:00 AM Reunion January 8 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1004 hPa) located at 13.0S 70.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
=====================
Squally weather exists within 250 NM radius from the center, extending up to 450 NM in the northern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 15.3S 68.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.5S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.7S 65.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 19.7S 65.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)


Additional Information
=======================
Convection has intensified last night, associated with a new low located between the two lows monitored until yesterday (one near 10S and the other near 15S, Remnants of Billy) The system is expected to track southwestward due to the ridge in the southeast, then up to track, 0600z +48HRS, southward as the trough arrives in the southwest. The system is fed by a strong monsoon flow, and a favorable equatorwards outflow is present.

---
corrected the stage of the system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
319. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:46 AM GMT on January 08, 2009

Comment Removed

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
318. Bobbyweather
6:04 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
The area of convection (96P) previously located near 16.4S 168.2E, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
317. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:58 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
extratropical system with hurricane-force winds
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
316. Bobbyweather
5:54 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting Skyepony:
It's hard not to check out the forecast for that storm early next week. The long term forecast anomilies were like what on earth.. Now the gfs is kicken warm core Greenland style.

Wait...that means it could be a hurricane (since it's symmetric warm-core)?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
315. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:28 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Cyclone Outlook for Northern Territory (Australia)

This is 97P on the NRL when it gets posted
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
314. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:25 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Region between 125E-142E
2:15 pm ACST January 8 2009
=============================================

A TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] is situated in the southeastern GULF OF CARPENTARIA near Mornington Island. At 11am it was near latitude 17S, longitude 139E, slow moving.

The LOW is expected to remain slow moving over water for the next few days, and may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
313. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:48 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services

LOW [1004 HPA] NEAR 17.0S 66.0E

Is likely to intensify further

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0300z 08JAN)
=========================================
An area of convection (Remnants of TC Billy/05S/03U) located at 15.1S 66.5E or 725 NM east-northeast of Runion. Recent animated water vapor and infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection flaring on the northeastern periphery of a broad low level circulation center evident in a partial 2126z AMSR-E Pass. The low level circulation center lies north of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the low level circulation center is also moving closer to the upper ridge axis, which may provide a reduction in shear values over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. Because the low level circulation center is broad and upper level support is just beginning to improve, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclcone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

---

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
312. hurristat
3:47 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Skye- that is very odd... why would the GFS say that?? computers have not taken over the world yet. Instead of the traffic light system taking over the world, it will be that new Japanese computer supermodel (not in the fashion sense)

Anyone else notice a pocket of warmth off the coast of Delaware? It's almost warm enough to sustain a TC!!
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
311. Skyepony (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
It's hard not to check out the forecast for that storm early next week. The long term forecast anomilies were like what on earth.. Now the gfs is kicken warm core Greenland style.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
310. Skyepony (Mod)
2:57 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Anyone else seeing a Moon Halo tonight?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
309. futuremet
2:42 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting hurristat:


too late, i already traded with zoo... welcome to real cold, all you floridians!! Mwahahaha!!


Hopefully arctic air will not penetrate too deep south next week...
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
308. zoomiami
2:36 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Thanks Hurristat - in honor of my new PIA kitty
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
307. hurristat
2:23 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting futuremet:


I hate the cold

It is great here in Port St Lucie FL


too late, i already traded with zoo... welcome to real cold, all you floridians!! Mwahahaha!!
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
306. futuremet
2:19 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting hurristat:


sweet you can have my highs of 30

nice new avatar btw


I hate the cold

It is great here in Port St Lucie FL
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
305. Skyepony (Mod)
1:54 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Slummed the weather wire & updated. It's buzzing tonight. Something that played into a recent discussion..
Brownsville, TX~ Making gulf water drinkable too costly for now

Good stuff on the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. I had an ahh ha moment of my own not mentioned in either. It's finally cooled off around the gulf stream to create a gradient to get it going. In 2005 the monitering seemed to show it at it's slowest.. The waters around it were so hot then. Recently it's cooled around the gulf stream with the heat gathering more in Central Atlantic.

Surfmom~ Ponys here were pretty lively in that front too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
304. hurristat
1:22 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting zoomiami:


Deal -- it was 83 here today. Can't even wear a suit without suffocating


sweet you can have my highs of 30

nice new avatar btw
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
303. zoomiami
1:11 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Hi Haha - nice to see you back
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
302. zoomiami
1:10 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting hurristat:


Look, i'll trade you my cold Michigan air for your cold Florida air, okay???


Deal -- it was 83 here today. Can't even wear a suit without suffocating
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
301. hurristat
1:06 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting zoomiami:


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??


Look, i'll trade you my cold Michigan air for your cold Florida air, okay???
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
300. hurristat
1:03 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
265aspectre -- thank you for clarifying that the Mayans did NOT have prophesy's of the world ending... and indeed it was the westerners who tagged that fable on to their work!


either way, the point is... ITS NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Nostradamus took the date and assigned it significance, but his words are so vague that any meaning can be applied to it. I'm tired of everyone saying "oh, armageddon's gonna come on 12.12.12, and there's nothing you can do about it." face it, it is purely superstition and belief in it is foolish.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
299. hahaguy
12:55 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
It's good to be back lol
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
298. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:02 AM GMT on January 08, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
9:00 AM FST January 8 2009
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (999 hPa) located at 18.0S 172.0E reported moving southeast at 15 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

Organization in the last 24 hours has not improved remarkedly with deep convection sheared to the east of low level circulation center. TD FOUR lies in a sheared environment with 20-30 knot winds at 250 hPa. An active convergence zone lies to the north of the system with 20 knot winds at the surface. A southeasterly surge remains to the south.

Development remains unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper trough from the west which maintains a sheared environment. TD FOUR is expected to develop into a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45622
297. zoomiami
11:46 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Hi Drak - how are you? Are you in North Dade or South Dade?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
296. zoomiami
11:45 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Our mild cold front just blew in, eating dinner and all of a sudden the wind starts whipping up against the house. Still pretty gusty.

While back a front like this came in, I was in the car that showed the outside temp, dropped 12 degrees in less than 10 minutes. that cold front literally "blew" in.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
295. Drakoen
11:43 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting zoomiami:


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??


He won't be able to underscore the arctic airmass that will come next week.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
294. zoomiami
11:42 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:


Not to much fan fair with this weak front....Some scattered showers and a few gusts to maybe 30-35mph as mentioned by the NWS. Mid to upper 50's in south florida dade/broward.

Hi-Res visible loop of front


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
293. sullivanweather
11:34 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Check this out!

18Z GFS has a 935mb low pressure near the Davis Strait. It originates from a very energetic shortwave trough moving off the East Coast that will be ushering in the arctic airmass across the eastern US next week.

There's a small potential for a big time blizzard next week in the Northeast. We're talking very small, but if everything comes together right i.e. shortwave dives just a tad further southwest of where models project it to currently, this storm will get cranking before it reaches the Canadian Maritimes.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
292. AstroHurricane001
11:20 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I live basically on a rock bluff... If I get flooded.. Victoria would already be living on an Ark. My business is a different matter, but thats why we have insurance :)

I would assume the storm drains are running at max, and I will see when I get there... but its only prone to flooding if the storm drains plug and the parking lot floods.

Wow, I head you guys got about 100 mm of rain, on top of the 15 cm of snow (Vancouver).
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
291. AstroHurricane001
11:17 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting hurristat:


Snowing here in MI wasn't too bad, less than an inch, but you get lake effect, so I don't know if what I got has any bearing on you.

There was a Texas low that moved right over us, so it gave us more snow, on top of the ice pellets and snow we already have. Previous Texas lows have given us more rain than snow, but this one gave us snow. A week from now, we could have more than 45 cm (18 in) of snow on the ground, just as long as the snow doesn't turn to rain anytime within the next week.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
290. BahaHurican
11:15 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:
I posted something about this a couple of weeks ago, but I have stumbled across the full article today.

Fully simulating a TC cyclogenesis by running a global cloud-resolving model. Most of our current models use a parameterization approach for clouds. They do not actually calculate the clouds physical effects, but approximate their existence and feedbacks in a general area due to the existence of those clouds.

Now the Japanese are running a global cloud-resolving model. This allows them to correctly resolve the MJO. They successfully spun up the model 20 simulated days before cyclogenesis occurred and the model correctly handled the MJO and the resulting typhoon. What if we had a reliable model of cyclogenesis 3 weeks out? Awesome.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Thanks, atmo. I remember the discussion about this some time back, and I'm quite interested to read the entire article.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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