Geoengineering: a bad idea whose time may come

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 19, 2008

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Yesterday, at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), climate change scientists discussed the risks and benefits of deliberately altering Earth's climate through "geoengineering". One measure of the concern scientists have about Earth's climate could be gauged by the standing-room only crowd of 200 that packed the presentation room. The eleven speakers at the session laid out some radical and dangerous ideas for deliberately altering Earth's climate. They uniformly cautioned that the uncertainties and dangers of implementing any of these schemes was high, but that geoengineering may be necessary if efforts to control greenhouse gases fail and the climate begins to undergo rapid and destructive changes.

David Keith presented the results of a week-long workshop held earlier this year that brought together ten of the world's experts on geoengineering. He emphasized that even if we stopped emitting CO2 today, the possibility of dangerous climate change capable of causing a "climate emergency" may still be higher than 1%, thanks to the tremendous inertia of the heat stored in the oceans. Of course, we're not going to stop emitting CO2 today. Dealing with a future climate emergency is technically feasible, if we inject large quantities of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere via aircraft, artillery, or tethered balloons with hoses. Sulfur injection into the stratosphere is considered to be the leading candidate for geoengineering, since nature has done this many times via volcanic eruptions, and we have some idea of what to expect. As I reported in a blog post earlier this year, the idea is being championed by Nobel prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen.

One problem with injecting sulfur into the stratosphere is that it tends to settle back to the surface in about ten months. A. V. Eliseev explained that in order to keep global temperatures under control in a world with ever-increasing CO2 emissions, we would have to inject an ever increasing amount of sulfur into the atmosphere. His computer model results showed that if a funding lapse occurred in, say, the year 2075, the atmosphere would rapidly warm by 5-9°F (3-5°C) over most of North America, Europe, and Asia, within a decade of cessation of the geoengineering efforts. The resulting shock to ecosystems would be extremely dangerous to civilization.

Richard Turco of UCLA estimated that injecting enough sulfur in the stratosphere to properly geoengineer the climate would require 3000 aircraft sorties per day, and cost $50-$100 billion per year. Model results he presented showed a large amount of uncertainty as to what might happen, and he cautioned that there was "no guarantee of success, and failure would be catastrophic".

A. Robrock of Rutgers disagreed with Dr. Turco, and estimated that the cost of injecting the required amount of sulfur into the stratosphere would by less that $5 billion per year, provided the U.S. military would let scientists use 167 of the existing fleet of 522 F15C Eagle jets to do the job. After all, he reasoned, why wouldn't the military want to use their aircraft to confront our enemy (global warming?) High-altitude fighter jets would be required to do the job, since ordinary jetliners cannot fly high enough to penetrate into the stratosphere. He cautioned that such a fleet of aircraft would have to fly three missions per day, and their exhaust gases would probably cause significant destruction of Earth's protective ozone layer. Furthermore, modeling studies show that we don't know what size particles to make, where to put the sulfur, and what uneven effects the efforts might have on Earth's climate. He concluded, "there are many reasons not to do geoengineering".

A more ecological approach to geoengineering was presented by Phil Rasch of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and by Jim Haywood of Britain's Met Office Hadley Center. They proposed building a fleet of wind-powered ships known as Fletter vessels (Figure 1) that would spray large amounts of sea salt into the air in regions where there are existing stratocumulus clouds. The sea salt would act as nuclei around which moisture could condense, making the clouds more reflective. A fleet of approximately 66 of these vessels would be required to seed the clouds over 30% of the globe, to balance a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, they cautioned that while this solution would be relatively cheap, the technology to implement this scheme would be difficult. Furthermore, studies performed with climate models showed that the resulting climate shift would not be uniform, and many areas would experience drought. In particular, Dr. Haywood showed the possibility of severe drought in the Amazon rain forest and in the Southwest U.S.


Figure 1. A conceptual picture of Flettner spray vessel with Thom fences. These wind-driven vessels have vertical spinning cylinders that use the Magnus effect to produce forces perpendicular to the wind direction. Anton Flettner built a ship using this technology that crossed the Atlantic in 1926. The proposed geoengineering Flettner vessels would sail over ocean regions covered with stratocumulus clouds and make the existing clouds whiter by spraying small salt particles into the air. Image is copyright J. MacNeill 2006. For more information on these vessels, see Salter at al., 2008, "Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming", Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 366, Number 1882, pp3989-4006, 13 November 2008.

Katharine Ricke of Carnagie Mellon University cautioned that the foreign policy community has virtually no awareness of geoengineering issues, and would be totally unprepared for the possibility of some country deciding to unilaterally attempt a geoengineering program on their own. She suggested that an effort needs to be made to promote international agreements on geoengineering, perhaps including binding treaties.

Jeff Masters

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483. weatherbro
11:15 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
In Orlando the dew point over my house is 28 degrees(because of a wind shift) up from the single digits during this afternoons daily mixing. My how much a difference a wind shift makes!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1292
482. hurristat
7:47 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The archive directory in the ATCF database has a lot of information. One subdirectory, non-developing-depressions-1967-1987-atl.txt may contain the data you are looking for.


I WANT TO GIVE YOU A HUG!!! I HAVE SPENT A LONG TIME LOOKING FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS!!!
THANK YOU!!

Okay, now that I'm done with that, how do I read the data?? I don't know how to decipher this data... if someone could help it would be greatly appreciated!!!
11440 9/ 7*286 780 25 0*298 785 30 0*310 787 30 0*323 786 30 0*

this is what it looks like

Wait, does it mean that it is at 28.6N 78.0W with 25 kts?? And then 29.8N 78.5W with 30 kts?? thank you!!!

Blog hole

Do you know where to find tropical depression data for the Eastern Pacific in the same time period??
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
481. nrtiwlnvragn
3:37 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting hurristat:
I have a question for everyone... I am disappointed by the lack of data for the tropical depressions before 1991. Fortunately, I have found a source for the tropical depressions in 1967-1980 and 1988-1990. I have two questions: 1) Where is data for the tropical depressions in that period in which i cannot find any, for they did exist. The NHC does not have information on these storms prior to 1991, so they are of no help. If anyone could direct me to a site with this information, it would be greatly appreciated. 2) In the year of 1988, I have found a tropical depression that is separated into two sections (it regenerated). One is near Africa, the other off the east coast. My question is this: Do I connect them, as I did with Hurricane Ivan, or do I have two separate sections, with different references? Any help will be appreciated.


The archive directory in the ATCF database has a lot of information. One subdirectory, non-developing-depressions-1967-1987-atl.txt may contain the data you are looking for.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179
480. WxLogic
3:19 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Good brunch...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
479. HTV
3:09 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting txag91met:
In the past 2 weeks I have had my second ice/snow event in Houston, TX.
Just had sleet/fz rain.



We got a little of that here on Lake Houston too, but we are at 32.7 degrees.
478. TampaSpin
2:43 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
I just completed my Weather Update on my blog and also Completed the musical Play list for everyone to play on Christmas Eve. I hope some might find it enjoyable......

Merry Christmas Everyone......

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
477. TropicTraveler
2:37 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Good morning all. Back from one month on my favorite form of transport - a cruise ship over the deep ocean. Passed just north of the Cape Verde islands and wished very much I could have kayaked over for a quick visit. Calm seas and NO tropical weather the whole time. It was a fiftieth anniversary event so knew the seas would be kind. It's good to see the familiar folks are still on line. Stopped in Tortola on the way back before getting off at San Juan. I do love Tortola and the whole area for it's warm water, gorgeous mountains and friendly people. Anyway, hope you all kept the tropics under total control while I was away. BTW I live in sunny Arizona and there was ice on my car. What was That about?
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
476. futuremet
2:37 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
A Look back at tropical storm Fay

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
475. txag91met
2:02 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
In the past 2 weeks I have had my second ice/snow event in Houston, TX.
Just had sleet/fz rain.

Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 750
473. TampaSpin
1:35 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Morning everyone.......I will be finishing up my shopping today so please stay out of my way......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
472. BahaHurican
1:34 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting ayi:

Some time ago I set up a table to convert between metric and imperial and also between Saffir-Simpson and Australian scales. This is an extract:

Saffir-Simpson (SS) - Australian (Au)
63 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Tropical Low (Au)
90 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
119 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
125 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
154 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
171 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
176 kph Category 3 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
211 kph category 4 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
226 kph Category 4 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
251 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
281 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 5 (Au)

However, it's still not that straight forward due to SS using 1 minute sustained winds and Au using 10 minutes. This inflates the SS wind values. From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Something I've wanted to ask, but never have remembered before now is, why is the ATL/EPAC the only area of responsibility that uses 1-min averages?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
471. ayi
1:22 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I did a brief check and their cat five is like our cat 3 and cat 2 is actually saying TS

Some time ago I set up a table to convert between metric and imperial and also between Saffir-Simpson and Australian scales. This is an extract:

Saffir-Simpson (SS) - Australian (Au)
63 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Tropical Low (Au)
90 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
119 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
125 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
154 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
171 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
176 kph Category 3 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
211 kph category 4 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
226 kph Category 4 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
251 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
281 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 5 (Au)

However, it's still not that straight forward due to SS using 1 minute sustained winds and Au using 10 minutes. This inflates the SS wind values. From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Member Since: December 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
470. BahaHurican
12:37 PM GMT on December 22, 2008
Morning everybody. I see things are picking up over Oz. Hopefully the new low will not have enough time to do more than be a low.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
469. surfmom
11:45 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
OK -- I found it "moving away from coast" -- Good to see you Hades and as always thanks for your work in the other areas of the the world -- I always look to you - for those Philippine updates
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
468. surfmom
11:42 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Morning Hades - in for a quick peek b/4 work and wondering what Billy did while I was sleeping...
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
467. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:11 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-EIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:35 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [989 hPa] located at 15.9S 123.9E or 80 kms southwest of Kuri Bay and 290 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 5 knots.

TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast and is moving steadily west southwest. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay overnight. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
466. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:18 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
5:00 PM ACST December 22 2008
=======================================

At 3:30 pm CST, a Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria at 14.8S 136.5E, or about 85 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving west at 6 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move over land tonight.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts tonight and tomorrow. Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border tonight and tomorrow. Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas tonight. Heavy rain is expected to continue and extend inland tomorrow, leading to localised flooding and significant stream rises.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
465. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:18 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-SEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:45 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 pm WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy [991 hPa] located at 15.6S 124.1E or 46 km west southwest of Kuri Bay and 330 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast, moving slowly west and is forecast to move in a general west to southwesterly direction over the next few days. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the far northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Techinical Bulletins
=====================================
12 HRS: 15.8S 123.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.4S 122.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 119.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.8S 117.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
Satellite imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a decrease in curvature and coldness of the cloud top temperatures.

DT/CI is assigned 3.0.

The system has slowed over the last 6 hours and remains in close proximity to land. The model guidance indicates the cyclone should remain north of the mid-level ridge and be steered in a generally westerly direction. In the 24 to 48 hour time frame the system should intensify as it moves away from the coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
464. BCtotheG
6:33 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Hey all... long time lurker, first time poster. I felt like I had to jump in on the climate change debate (which I'm sure will make me lots of new friends and not alienate me at all), but here's my question...

It seems like on there's a good deal of debate on this board in regards to climate change
(mostly whether or not it's human induced), is this representative of the meteorological community as a whole or confined to this message board?

If it is representative of the meteorological community as a whole then why is there so little published research contradicting the theory of AGW?

If it isn't then why is there such a debate on this board? (I'm assuming most of you are pretty involved in the meteorological community)
Member Since: December 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
463. TampaSpin
5:51 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Do you have Grandma got run over by a reindeer?


good one....thanks.....MORE.......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
462. Orcasystems
5:40 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Orca i have been working on my Christmas song play list......im up to 33 songs playing 1 hour and 40 minutes....need help you got any ideas.....Christmas play list Link


Do you have Grandma got run over by a reindeer?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
461. TampaSpin
5:16 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Orca i have been working on my Christmas song play list......im up to 33 songs playing 1 hour and 40 minutes....need help you got any ideas.....Christmas songs list Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
460. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:12 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
11:38 am ACST December 22 2008
=======================================

At 9:30 am Australia CST, a TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] is located at 14.6S 137.3E in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, or about 100 kilometres southeast of Groote Eylandt, moving west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move overland tonight.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts later today.

Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border from this evening.

Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas today, and will begin to extend inland tonight.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
459. TampaSpin
5:12 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Its ok you live you there you gotta like it......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
458. Orcasystems
5:09 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Damn.. I hate snow :(
at least 18" so far.. seems to be trying for 2 feet :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
457. smmcdavid
2:25 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Good evening all...

Please check out my blog if you are an animal lover! Can't stay to chat tonight.

Hi Drak!
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
456. melwerle
2:19 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
ok - so i'm an idiot (again) - trying to change my avatar but (again) can't figure it out. Help!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
455. melwerle
2:12 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Evening Everyone -

Hope everyone has a wonderful xmas and happy hannakuh!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
454. surfmom
2:08 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
cot
Maybe we need a new "text abrev" for the GW debate?
TWCRYO=Typed With Compassion Respect Your Opinion...LOL
Shep... you are soo funny !!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
453. all4hurricanes
2:01 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Good night everyone
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
452. surfmom
1:58 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
POST 433 If more of the public were capable of their own technical analysis of the issue, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

So true... but our curriculum for science is so pathetic... my kids learned about weather from either the books I purchased or got from the library or through what they needed to know to surf, fish, kayak, dive or hurricanes --
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
451. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:52 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
all4hurricanes

SS Cat 1 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 2 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 3 = Australia Category 4
SS Cat 4 = Ausralia Category 4
SS Cat 5 = Australia Category 4 or 5

---
as far as I remember
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
450. all4hurricanes
1:46 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
I did a brief check and their cat five is like our cat 3 and cat 2 is actually saying TS
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:39 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Australian scale

30 knots - Tropical Low
35-50 knots - Category 1
50-65 knots - Category 2
65-85 knots - Category 3
85-105 knots - Category 4
105 or greater - Category 5
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
448. Drakoen
1:35 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd be very interested to hear what ATL basin mets have to say about this.


Yea. I would be too, especially from what the veteran mets at the NHC have to say.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
447. all4hurricanes
1:34 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Whats the Australian rating scale because
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
all4hurricane

Port Hedland may need to watch it it starts its south decend when it suppose to be Australian scale Category Four Cyclone
What is the cyclone rating in Australia?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
446. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:32 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
all4hurricane

Port Hedland may need to watch it it starts its south decend when it suppose to be Australian scale Category Four Cyclone
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
445. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:27 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
=====================================

At 9:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [992 hPa] located at 15.6S 124.3E or 26 kms west southwest of Kuri Bay and 345 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

TC Billy has re-formed near the northwest Kimberley coast and is moving west southwest off the Kimberley coast near Kuri Bay. GALES are expected to develop between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque today. DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible about the far northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome early on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 15.8S 123.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.1S 122.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.9S 120.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.3S 118.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4)

Remarks:
Latest satellite imagery shows Ex-TC Billy moving WSW near the northwest Kimberley coast.

Latest imagery shows good convection wrapping around the centre with DT 3.5 based on wrap of 0.8. CI constrained to 3.0.

The environment remains favourable for further intensification despite the proximity of land.

The WSW motion is expected to continue with a mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term a low currently in the Gulf of Carpentaria may have inhibit the development
of a peripheral ridge making a more southerly motion less likely.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
444. all4hurricanes
1:18 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Is billy going to make a second landfall?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
443. BahaHurican
12:52 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Latest Billy.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
442. hurristat
12:40 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
To help with the last post, here is a link to a picture of the track for that tropical depression.
Link

About this track, my feeling is to connect them together, and when it was a tropical disturbance mark it as a tropical depression.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
441. hurristat
12:25 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
I have a question for everyone... I am disappointed by the lack of data for the tropical depressions before 1991. Fortunately, I have found a source for the tropical depressions in 1967-1980 and 1988-1990. I have two questions: 1) Where is data for the tropical depressions in that period in which i cannot find any, for they did exist. The NHC does not have information on these storms prior to 1991, so they are of no help. If anyone could direct me to a site with this information, it would be greatly appreciated. 2) In the year of 1988, I have found a tropical depression that is separated into two sections (it regenerated). One is near Africa, the other off the east coast. My question is this: Do I connect them, as I did with Hurricane Ivan, or do I have two separate sections, with different references? Any help will be appreciated.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
440. BahaHurican
12:07 AM GMT on December 22, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:


Wow. Nice find. Thanks.
I'd be very interested to hear what ATL basin mets have to say about this.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
439. Drakoen
11:46 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
Good Morning Billy. Still a decent low level circulation despite being overland for so long. Should intensify, as predicted by the global models, as it moves over water.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
438. Drakoen
11:40 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
Repost from a couple of days ago because it is soooo pertinent to what we usually do in this blog:


Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...


Wow. Nice find. Thanks.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
437. BahaHurican
11:37 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
Repost from a couple of days ago because it is soooo pertinent to what we usually do in this blog:


Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...
Hmmm. Full piece is not available, only the abstract, right?

Looks like a very interesting read. Makes me wish I had some "in" on a JMA-based weather blog. However, poor Japanese might hold me back.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
436. BahaHurican
11:32 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
TWCRYO
Moonrocker
Interdisciplinary comparisons are welcome unless there is a dire weather situation exchange or someone starts overthehill candidate support.
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Basically the doc says, "knock urself out w/ the GW debate, willya?" This is really about the only time of year (and maybe a couple weeks in Jan) when a discussion of this length is likely to go on.

I'm glad to see some decent discussion for a change, since that's what keeps us all informed, regardless of position / viewpoint.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
435. BahaHurican
11:23 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:



Yeah. Ignore it. That's what I do.

It's bliss as the well worn cliche explicitly states. Still yet to find any evidence which draws me into the debate on either side...

Take the common side approach of reducing emissions and increasing recycling, and you win either way. Job done. :)

So many debates aren't worth the pixels they're typed on...
Ah. Finally someone who understands my viewpoint.

U wouldn't happen to be from the UK, would u?

LOL

EDIT: I have since seen the social sciences / humanities background comment, and all is revealed.. . ..
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
434. theshepherd
11:03 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
433 cs
I forced myself to watch Mr Gore's feel good special.
One part in particular where he held up a "paper" that "proved" that there were "no" scientists that disagreed with his pay-per-view rants that were viewed in 4'000 seperate lectures according to him. If he'll lie about that, what else will he lie about? How much CO2 would you pump into the atmosphere flying his jet to 4,000 lectures all over the world? That sounds like a certain basketball player's claim to having 10,000 women.
And this type of dishonesty brings you a nobel? Academy Award ?
Your points are well received and pigeon holed.
thanx
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
433. CajunSubbie
10:31 PM GMT on December 21, 2008
agree with jimcripwell @11:32. However, I think I would go further and suggest that aj1983 may have allowed his political leanings to affect his scientific objectivity, assuming his credentials are as stated.

I am a professional geophysicist with a strong background in mathematics and paleoclimatology. I, too, have studied the subject of AGW, because I refuse to accept anyone's statements concerning AGW (pro or con) without deriving/verifying the science and looking at the raw data myself. I think we all can agree that arguments on both sides of the debate (which is NOT over, BTW), often rely upon assumptions that have not been completely validated. I have also seen numerous logical and mathematical errors committed on both sides. Hopefully, this very interesting solar cycle we are about to enter into will help to shed light on the subject, and help resolve some of the issues that are still in doubt.

For the benefit of aj1983, I will point out only two (of many) problems with the theory of GHG-driven GW:

(1). aj1983 states,

"Also there is a strong correlation between CO2 and the earth's temperature over the last million years. CO2 and temperatures are coupled, which means if you increase temperature you will increase CO2, but if you increase CO2 this will also increase temperature".

Partially true. Using oxygen isotope ratios as a proxy for temperature and entrained atmospheric samples from deep ice cores, we have learned that CO2 tracks temperature with an average lag of about 800 years, likely due to the thermal inertia of the oceans. It is NOT true that an increase in CO2 will increase average temperature. If aj1983's statement were correct, the earth would eventually broil as a result of runaway heating due to positive feedback: CO2 increases temperature, which increases CO2, which increases temperature, which... !

The proof that CO2 does not significantly control temperature can be seen at the CO2 and temperature peaks and troughs within the ice core data we are all familiar with (even Al Gore showed the data in his fantasy film). At each peak in temperature (interglacial periods), CO2 continues to increase, probably from oceanic out-gassing, but atmospheric temperature turns down, ignoring the fictitious "CO2 forcing" signal that is the fantasy of the pro-AGW crowd. At the troughs, CO2 concentration continues to decrease for about 800 years after the temperature trend reverses and begins to climb. Where is the influence of CO2 concentration upon temperature? Temperature clearly leads CO2; there is NO evidence (no data) that it can ever be the other way around.

(2). CO2 is capable of absorbing infrared photons in only three narrow spectral wavelength bands, centered at 2.7, 4.3, and 15 microns, because of the limited number of asymmetric vibrational modes possible in the CO2 molecule. Even with spectral line broadening due to atmospheric pressure, these three wavelength bands comprise a very tiny portion of the black body radiation emitted by the earth. Therefore, very little of the infrared energy may be retarded by CO2 along it's journey back into space.

In addition, water vapor has significant effects at two of the CO2 absorption lines. It is well-known and acknowledged by all, that water vapor is a much stronger GHG than CO2. Water vapor fully absorbs the 2.7 micron wavelengths, leaving nothing for CO2 to accomplish at that frequency. Water vapor also exhibits a significant effect at the 15 micron wavelength. At 4.3 microns, however, water vapor is transparent, leaving CO2 all alone to do it's thing. How can the pro-AGW contingent expect us to believe that increased atmospheric CO2 will produce massive climatic effects, when it is only capable of retarding the radiation of a single narrow bandwidth centered at 4.3 microns, and a portion of another (15 microns) out of the earth's entire black body radiation bandwidth?

The above represent only two of the many arguments against CO2 as a forcing agent for the global climate. There are many others, such as the saturation argument (wavelengths at which CO2 is active are already fully absorbed, so additional CO2 will have negligible affect).

I believe that the present global warming hysteria is primarily a symptom of a serious lack of science education globally. Many otherwise intelligent people have bought the snake oil, trusting the promoters of AGW and assuming they have solid science on their side, without analyzing the data for themselves. Some of the key AGW promoters (those with technical backgrounds who should know better) actually seem to be selling a political agenda. If more of the public were capable of their own technical analysis of the issue, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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