Geoengineering: a bad idea whose time may come
Yesterday, at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), climate change scientists discussed the risks and benefits of deliberately altering Earth's climate through "geoengineering". One measure of the concern scientists have about Earth's climate could be gauged by the standing-room only crowd of 200 that packed the presentation room. The eleven speakers at the session laid out some radical and dangerous ideas for deliberately altering Earth's climate. They uniformly cautioned that the uncertainties and dangers of implementing any of these schemes was high, but that geoengineering may be necessary if efforts to control greenhouse gases fail and the climate begins to undergo rapid and destructive changes.
David Keith presented the results of a week-long workshop held earlier this year that brought together ten of the world's experts on geoengineering. He emphasized that even if we stopped emitting CO2 today, the possibility of dangerous climate change capable of causing a "climate emergency" may still be higher than 1%, thanks to the tremendous inertia of the heat stored in the oceans. Of course, we're not going to stop emitting CO2 today. Dealing with a future climate emergency is technically feasible, if we inject large quantities of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere via aircraft, artillery, or tethered balloons with hoses. Sulfur injection into the stratosphere is considered to be the leading candidate for geoengineering, since nature has done this many times via volcanic eruptions, and we have some idea of what to expect. As I reported in a blog post earlier this year, the idea is being championed by Nobel prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen.
One problem with injecting sulfur into the stratosphere is that it tends to settle back to the surface in about ten months. A. V. Eliseev explained that in order to keep global temperatures under control in a world with ever-increasing CO2 emissions, we would have to inject an ever increasing amount of sulfur into the atmosphere. His computer model results showed that if a funding lapse occurred in, say, the year 2075, the atmosphere would rapidly warm by 5-9°F (3-5°C) over most of North America, Europe, and Asia, within a decade of cessation of the geoengineering efforts. The resulting shock to ecosystems would be extremely dangerous to civilization.
Richard Turco of UCLA estimated that injecting enough sulfur in the stratosphere to properly geoengineer the climate would require 3000 aircraft sorties per day, and cost $50-$100 billion per year. Model results he presented showed a large amount of uncertainty as to what might happen, and he cautioned that there was "no guarantee of success, and failure would be catastrophic".
A. Robrock of Rutgers disagreed with Dr. Turco, and estimated that the cost of injecting the required amount of sulfur into the stratosphere would by less that $5 billion per year, provided the U.S. military would let scientists use 167 of the existing fleet of 522 F15C Eagle jets to do the job. After all, he reasoned, why wouldn't the military want to use their aircraft to confront our enemy (global warming?) High-altitude fighter jets would be required to do the job, since ordinary jetliners cannot fly high enough to penetrate into the stratosphere. He cautioned that such a fleet of aircraft would have to fly three missions per day, and their exhaust gases would probably cause significant destruction of Earth's protective ozone layer. Furthermore, modeling studies show that we don't know what size particles to make, where to put the sulfur, and what uneven effects the efforts might have on Earth's climate. He concluded, "there are many reasons not to do geoengineering".
A more ecological approach to geoengineering was presented by Phil Rasch of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and by Jim Haywood of Britain's Met Office Hadley Center. They proposed building a fleet of wind-powered ships known as Fletter vessels (Figure 1) that would spray large amounts of sea salt into the air in regions where there are existing stratocumulus clouds. The sea salt would act as nuclei around which moisture could condense, making the clouds more reflective. A fleet of approximately 66 of these vessels would be required to seed the clouds over 30% of the globe, to balance a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, they cautioned that while this solution would be relatively cheap, the technology to implement this scheme would be difficult. Furthermore, studies performed with climate models showed that the resulting climate shift would not be uniform, and many areas would experience drought. In particular, Dr. Haywood showed the possibility of severe drought in the Amazon rain forest and in the Southwest U.S.
Figure 1. A conceptual picture of Flettner spray vessel with Thom fences. These wind-driven vessels have vertical spinning cylinders that use the Magnus effect to produce forces perpendicular to the wind direction. Anton Flettner built a ship using this technology that crossed the Atlantic in 1926. The proposed geoengineering Flettner vessels would sail over ocean regions covered with stratocumulus clouds and make the existing clouds whiter by spraying small salt particles into the air. Image is copyright J. MacNeill 2006. For more information on these vessels, see Salter at al., 2008, "Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming", Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 366, Number 1882, pp3989-4006, 13 November 2008.
Katharine Ricke of Carnagie Mellon University cautioned that the foreign policy community has virtually no awareness of geoengineering issues, and would be totally unprepared for the possibility of some country deciding to unilaterally attempt a geoengineering program on their own. She suggested that an effort needs to be made to promote international agreements on geoengineering, perhaps including binding treaties.
Jeff Masters
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SS Cat 1 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 2 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 3 = Australia Category 4
SS Cat 4 = Ausralia Category 4
SS Cat 5 = Australia Category 4 or 5
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as far as I remember
So true... but our curriculum for science is so pathetic... my kids learned about weather from either the books I purchased or got from the library or through what they needed to know to surf, fish, kayak, dive or hurricanes --
Hope everyone has a wonderful xmas and happy hannakuh!
Please check out my blog if you are an animal lover! Can't stay to chat tonight.
Hi Drak!
at least 18" so far.. seems to be trying for 2 feet :(
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
11:38 am ACST December 22 2008
=======================================
At 9:30 am Australia CST, a TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] is located at 14.6S 137.3E in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, or about 100 kilometres southeast of Groote Eylandt, moving west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move overland tonight.
Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts later today.
Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border from this evening.
Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas today, and will begin to extend inland tonight.
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.
Do you have Grandma got run over by a reindeer?
good one....thanks.....MORE.......lol
It seems like on there's a good deal of debate on this board in regards to climate change
(mostly whether or not it's human induced), is this representative of the meteorological community as a whole or confined to this message board?
If it is representative of the meteorological community as a whole then why is there so little published research contradicting the theory of AGW?
If it isn't then why is there such a debate on this board? (I'm assuming most of you are pretty involved in the meteorological community)
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-SEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:45 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================
At 3:00 pm WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy [991 hPa] located at 15.6S 124.1E or 46 km west southwest of Kuri Bay and 330 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.
TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast, moving slowly west and is forecast to move in a general west to southwesterly direction over the next few days. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the far northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.
Tropical Cyclone Techinical Bulletins
=====================================
12 HRS: 15.8S 123.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.4S 122.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 119.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.8S 117.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
Remarks:
Satellite imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a decrease in curvature and coldness of the cloud top temperatures.
DT/CI is assigned 3.0.
The system has slowed over the last 6 hours and remains in close proximity to land. The model guidance indicates the cyclone should remain north of the mid-level ridge and be steered in a generally westerly direction. In the 24 to 48 hour time frame the system should intensify as it moves away from the coast.
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
5:00 PM ACST December 22 2008
=======================================
At 3:30 pm CST, a Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria at 14.8S 136.5E, or about 85 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving west at 6 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move over land tonight.
Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts tonight and tomorrow. Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border tonight and tomorrow. Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas tonight. Heavy rain is expected to continue and extend inland tomorrow, leading to localised flooding and significant stream rises.
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-EIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:35 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================
At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [989 hPa] located at 15.9S 123.9E or 80 kms southwest of Kuri Bay and 290 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 5 knots.
TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast and is moving steadily west southwest. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay overnight. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.
Some time ago I set up a table to convert between metric and imperial and also between Saffir-Simpson and Australian scales. This is an extract:
Saffir-Simpson (SS) - Australian (Au)
63 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Tropical Low (Au)
90 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
119 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
125 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
154 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
171 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
176 kph Category 3 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
211 kph category 4 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
226 kph Category 4 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
251 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
281 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 5 (Au)
However, it's still not that straight forward due to SS using 1 minute sustained winds and Au using 10 minutes. This inflates the SS wind values. From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:
NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Just had sleet/fz rain.
Merry Christmas Everyone......
TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
We got a little of that here on Lake Houston too, but we are at 32.7 degrees.
The archive directory in the ATCF database has a lot of information. One subdirectory, non-developing-depressions-1967-1987-atl.txt may contain the data you are looking for.
I WANT TO GIVE YOU A HUG!!! I HAVE SPENT A LONG TIME LOOKING FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS!!!
THANK YOU!!
Okay, now that I'm done with that, how do I read the data?? I don't know how to decipher this data... if someone could help it would be greatly appreciated!!!
11440 9/ 7*286 780 25 0*298 785 30 0*310 787 30 0*323 786 30 0*
this is what it looks like
Wait, does it mean that it is at 28.6N 78.0W with 25 kts?? And then 29.8N 78.5W with 30 kts?? thank you!!!
Blog hole
Do you know where to find tropical depression data for the Eastern Pacific in the same time period??
Viewing: 451 - 483
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