Increasing hurricane damages

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:53 PM GMT on December 05, 2008

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A conference called the Hurricane Science for Safety Leadership Forum convened this week in Orlando to look at how we can better prepare for the inevitable hurricanes in our future. The conference brought together an interesting mix of experts--scientists from environmental groups like the National Wildlife Federation, insurance industry representitives, and a representative from the pro-business Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI).

There are a number of interesting Powerpoint and video presentations posted on their web site, for those interested. The most eye-opening fact I saw came during a presentation done by Amanda Staudt of the National Wildlife Federation. In her presentation on the policy implication of hurricanes and climate change, she showed that the population of South Florida is projected to grow from a 1990 population of 6.3 million to a 2050 population of 15-30 million people. That's a startling increase in population. Higher and higher hurricane damage tabs are inevitable in coming decades, just from this huge increase in population. She goes further, showing that if the theoretical predictions for global warming by the end of the century come true--a 2-13% increase in hurricane winds due to ocean warming, a 10-31% increase in hurricane rainfall, and an increase in sea level of several feet--there is likely to be a huge increase in hurricane damage, and probably in deaths, as well.

I have a few comments on this. While I believe that hurricane damages will continue to grow primarily because of population increases, higher wealth, and poor land management, the contribution of increased damage due to global warming will start to become significant by the end of the century. The 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming theorized by hurricane researcher Dr. Kerry Emanuel (Emanuel, 2005) may not seem like much, it will make a significant difference in the destructive power of the strongest storms. A Category 4 hurricane does about four times more damage than a Category 3 hurricane, and 250 times more damage than a Category 1 storm (Figure 1). Given the expected increase of tropical sea surface temperatures of 1-2 °C by 2100, hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%. Since the difference in wind speed between a Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane is about 15%, we can anticipate that the strongest hurricanes in 2100 will do 1 1/2 to 3 times more damage than they do now.

This may be an underestimate of the increase in damage, though. Global sea level rose about 0.75 feet last century, and is expected to rise 0.6 - 1.9 feet this century, according to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science this year concluded that the IPCC underestimated sea level rise, and that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet. If true, we can expect greatly increased damage from hurricane storm surges. However, it is possible that there will be fewer hurricanes by the end of the century, thanks to an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic (Vecchi and Soden, 2007).


Figure 1. Potential hurricane damage as a function of Saffir-Simpson category for U.S. hurricanes between 1925-1995. If the median damage from a Category 1 hurricane is normalized to be a "one", then Category 2, 3, and 4 hurricanes were 10, 50, and 250 times more damaging, respectively. Data taken from Pielke, Jr. R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: "Normalized Atlantic hurricane damage 1925-1995" Wea. Forecasting, 13, pp.621-631.

Better building codes
Congressman Bennie Thompson, D-MS, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, helped to kick off the conference with opening remarks that underscored his intention to hold Congressional hearings on developing new building codes in hurricane-prone areas. He was hopeful that President-elect Obama and new incoming head of Homeland Security, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, would work to adopt new, tougher building standards. "Take a look at the homes on the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas that are still standing after the hurricane," Thompson said. "We know how to build stronger homes. Now we just need to do it." Thompson said that while such legislation had been introduced in the past but failed, chances were better under an Obama administration of passage.

I think it is essential that more stringent and comprehensive building codes get adopted in hurricane alley to reduce the inevitable huge price tags from future hurricanes.

References
Emanuel, K. 2005, "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", Nature, 436, 4 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03906.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming", Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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512. JRRP
2:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
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Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5073
511. vortfix
1:43 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
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509. PensacolaDoug
1:37 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
This out of the JACKSON MS NWS.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FCST IS A HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD FCST...SO
YOU CAN FIGURE THAT THIS MEANS THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUSTED FCST. I WILL TRY TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL . THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY MUCH SWAPPED SIDES IN
REGARD TO TIMING. NOW THE GFS IS THE SLOWER MDL(PROBABLY TOO SLOW)
AND THE ECMWF IS PRETTY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS GFS TIMING. THE MDLS GET
INTO DECENT AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BY NEXT WEEK THEY
REALLY START TO DIVERGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS IS GETTING A LITTLE
RIDICULOUS AS THE MDLS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND THIS TREND CONTINUED TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...AND POSSIBLY A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT IF THINGS LINE UP RIGHT.

FIRST OFF LET ME SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND I AM HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THAT WE WILL GET MUCH SNOW BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW IS FAVORABLE. FIRST IT WOULD LEAD TO DYNAMIC COOLING AND BOTH
MDLS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF THIS. ALSO IT PUTS THE CWA UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. COMBINE THAT WITH A DEVELOPING TROWAL...WHICH IS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...AND YOU HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. ALSO FCST SNDGS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLUMN
AT SOME POINT COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE GFS INDICATING QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. RIGHT NOW I AM GOING TO TAKE A
BLEND OF THE MDLS AND JUST ADD LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WED AND ON THU BUT WE MAY HAVE TO MAKE THAT
MODERATE SNOW IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. THE OPS RUN OF THE GFS
IS NOT OUT OF LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THIS IS GIVING A LITTLE
MORE CREDIBILITY TO THE GFS. IF THE GFS ACTUALLY VERIFIES THEN THERE
WILL BE A STRIPE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT IF THAT
OCCURS THE LOCATION IS JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME.
ALL IT TAKES IS A LITTLE DEVIATION IN TRACK OR STRENGTH IN THE UPPER
LOW AND THAT THIN STRIPE COULD BE DISPLACED 50 MILES OR SO. THAT LITTLE
CHANGE COULD ALSO BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING SNOW OR KEEPING
EVERYTHING COMPLETELY LIQUID. SECOND IF THE DYNAMIC COOLING IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE MDLS ARE INDICATING THEN WE WILL LIKELY STAY
COMPLETLY LIQUID. ONE MORE NEGATIVE ASPECT...IT IS STILL EARLY
DECEMBER AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS IS NOT THE BEST TIME FOR
US TO GET SNOW STORMS. NOW IF THIS WAS JAN OR FEB THEN WE WOULD
LIKELY BE TALKING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT. TEMPS ARE A DIFFICULT PROPOSITION RIGHT NOW B/C
A LOT WILL DEPEND IF WE HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. IF THERE IS THEN
LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE COLDER THAN EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY I WILL JUST STICK WITH THE MEX GUI FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL
ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY QUITE COOL IF(BIG
IF THERE) IS SNOW ON THE GROUND
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
508. vortfix
1:35 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
PRECEEDED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX/OK INTO AR AND WILL BE
DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONTINUED INCREASING GULF MOISTURE...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY.
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS FIELDS ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 12/09/2008
507. PensacolaDoug
1:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Anyone notice the 06z gfs has a significant swath of snow across southern Mississippi and into Ala for Thursday? How odd!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
506. vortfix
1:20 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Tornado hatch area:


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505. sullivanweather
1:18 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Good morning, Bone!

I'm trying to temper my excitement being that the new Euro package shows an inland track to low pressure moving up the coast but I still prefer the American suite. Typically trying to move a coastal front inland is notoriously hard so the inland runner scenario doesn't seem plausable, only possible.

Should the current model depictions (American models) of the low pressure come to fruition I should be looking at a foot of snow or more here. That'll certinaly give me a leg up on the Michigan guys in our snow mountain contest and might bring my seasonal total close to 30" by the end of the week (already at 15.1" thus far)

* forgot to include the 0.3" that fell overnight
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12607
504. vortfix
1:11 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN LA AND SRN AND
CENTRAL MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL U.S. LEAD S/WV HAS
RACED RAPIDLY NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONG WIND MAX/TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SEWD FROM AZ/NM INTO S TX
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SWLY FLOW FROM S TX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WRN MO SWWD TO SWRN TX WILL
CONTINUE SEWD MOVING OFFSHORE TX COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE NWD THRU ERN
TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ZONE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

BASED ON GREATER INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED A SMALL AREA OF
LA AND MS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK.

VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF LOWER
MS VALLEY THRU THE DAY...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD NWD THRU ERN AR/MS AS 50-60KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD FROM
LA/AR INTO MS/WRN TN BY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS RISING INTO LOW/MID
60S THRU LA INTO SRN HALF OF MS...WILL LEAD TO MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG. LESSER INSTABILITY FURTHER N IN WARM SECTOR SUCH THAT
MUCH OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY S OF A CENTRAL AR/NRN MS LINE.

ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR SWWD INTO ERN TX/NWRN LA
WILL SPREAD EWD WITH INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...
PARTICULARLY NRN LA/FAR SRN AR INTO W CENTRAL MS WHERE STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND
TO DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EWD
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WITH A LINEAR MODE WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
STORMS BEGIN TO OUTRUN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TN VALLEY SWD
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK
ACROSS PARTS OF MS.

..HALES.. 12/09/2008
503. vortfix
1:04 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
The SPC has upgraded to a "Moderate" threat area:


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502. Bonedog
12:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Nice IKE I live on a rather large lake myself, totally frozen over already so the warming effects are disabled now.

We have been down to single digits recently. Those numbers are from my PWS at my house. Had to call the wifey for them LOL, one of these years I will get the station online LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
501. Bonedog
12:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
checking the surge models looks like the NJ/NY coast will see blowout conditions (up to 2 feet below MLLW)wednesday afternoon and night then surge (.28ft above MAT) thursday afternoon

should be interesting

NOAA Extratropical Surge Model

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
500. IKE
12:29 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
I haven't gotten down to 27 all fall...so far.

I live on a lake with another lake across the street. It keeps my temps up at night. I noticed yesterday morning, when I went to town about 6 am, there was frost everywhere, except here where I live. Those lakes add about 5 degrees to my morning lows.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
499. Bonedog
12:24 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
temp 27.0 °F
dew point 15 °F
humidity 61%
wind SSE at 0.0 mph
pressure 30.33 in
precip 0.00 in / hr
windchill 27 °F
elevation 1200 ft
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
498. IKE
12:23 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
I like the cold/dry weather....unfortunately my skin doesn't. Just dries out too much. I feel like an itch factory.

I noticed the 00Z ECMWF and the 6Z GFS have a low developing out in the Atlantic and heading north of the islands in about a week. Maybe this will be the December tropical system....

00Z ECMWF


6Z GFS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
497. Bonedog
12:21 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
great snowing in Texas but not here

grrrrrrrrrrrrr
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
496. MissNadia
12:20 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
I'm out for the morning... check you later!! LOL
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2865
495. Bonedog
12:17 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Morning MissNadia

send the snow my way no problem I'll take as much as I can =)

IKE I see the pattern shift =( looks like the possibility of a white christmas is getting slimmer and slimmer. I figured that with a white halloween we would have a white christmas.

Looking at the latest model runs and graphics might have a possibilty of some white stuff tonight and then again wednesday night =) Still iffy but the models have trended farther east this run =)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
494. IKE
12:16 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
Cold-air has made it into Amarillo,TX...

Amarillo, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 9 min 45 sec ago
Light Snow
30 °F
Light Snow Mist
Windchill: 15 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 28 °F
Wind: 32 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 44 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Rising)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 800 ft
Scattered Clouds 1400 ft
Overcast 5500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3606 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
493. IKE
12:08 PM GMT on December 09, 2008
I've got 52.2 outside my house...warmer today...heavy rain event starting tomorrow here in the Florida panhandle. Possibly a few inches of rain.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
492. MissNadia
11:57 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Good Morning Bonedog and Ike
It is 51 and cloudy in ILM
Forecast is for rain showers and 63
You can have ALL the Snow Bone !!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2865
491. IKE
11:51 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Latest satellite....




If you're in the eastern USA, above normal temps next week w/a significant pattern change....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
490. Bonedog
11:47 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
24 here and going up =(

one of these storms will produce for me.

might see some wet snow tonight, no accumulation just pretty while falling.

oh well....


LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW
LET IT SNOW

THINK SNOW! THINK SNOW! THINK SNOW!

=)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
489. Autistic2
11:46 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Good Morning all

Nice talk we had last night aboyt MMGW. I learned alot.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
488. all4hurricanes
11:10 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
35.1 degrees F it suddenly got warm before it was supposed to percipitate
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2338
487. BahaHurican
10:10 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Morning Cote, and the UK lol.

Just wanted to note that the current Nassau conditions are 73 °F / 23 °C and Mostly Cloudy. It would be great to have another sunny day like yesterday, but I have a feeling it's going to stay pretty cloudy at least for the morning . . .

I'm getting ready to head out for the day, so ya'll hold down the fort.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
486. Cotillion
8:48 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with that. The thing about this whole argument is that by the time we have enough data to prove anything one way or the other, it'll be too late to change anything, won't it? Considering that so many things which are likely to have a slowing effect on any non-natural GW also have the positive effect of reducing pollution, etc, it seems remarkably sensible to do them.

I'm agnostic about MMGW, but I support the worldwide initiatives and protocols because they make more sense than simply continuing with the destruction of natural resources / habitats / wildlife.


Pretty much my opinion too.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
485. HIEXPRESS
7:33 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Night Shift
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
484. Seastep
6:04 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Note: longest term graphs (last three) read right to left in time.

The big picture:











Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
483. Skyepony (Mod)
4:12 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Study designed to measure ice storm severity

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - An electric utility official and a meteorologist in Oklahoma have developed a system to measure the severity of an ice storm that may help people better prepare.

Together, Sid Sperry of the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives and meteorologist Steve Piltz of the Tulsa National Weather Service forecast office created the "Sperry-Piltz Utility Ice Damage Index."

The index rates damage potential in five levels based on ice thickness, wind speed and direction, and temperatures for the storm perioda.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
482. BahaHurican
3:52 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Geez. I just realized how late it is, and I have a before-dawn departure tomorrow . . .

Goodnight all. See u in the ether!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
481. BahaHurican
3:51 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Quoting hurristat:


As tired as I am of this discussion, I will say one thing. I dont care if you believe it exists or not, better to take steps to prevent it than to do nothing...
ok im done now
I agree with that. The thing about this whole argument is that by the time we have enough data to prove anything one way or the other, it'll be too late to change anything, won't it? Considering that so many things which are likely to have a slowing effect on any non-natural GW also have the positive effect of reducing pollution, etc, it seems remarkably sensible to do them.

I'm agnostic about MMGW, but I support the worldwide initiatives and protocols because they make more sense than simply continuing with the destruction of natural resources / habitats / wildlife.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
480. pottery
3:38 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
STL, nice link re: Azolla. Thanks for that.
I'm out.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
479. LPStormspotter
3:38 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Hey everyone!!!
Looks like almost everyone who started the season is here tonight. How is everybody?
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
477. pottery
3:26 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
......humans start trying to influence the climate.........post 475
the irony of that remark just dawned on me.
. Good night all. Its bedtime for me.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
476. pottery
3:21 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Well, since we are not sure what the outcome is going to be, but the prognosis is bad, I think it would be prudent to reduce our "footprint" as we now call it. Just in case.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
475. HurricaneKing
3:16 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Quoting pottery:
HurricaneKing. Interesting question.
But what steps are you refering to, that we are taking now, that may negatively impact GW ??
I dont know of any.....


Not negatively impact it but cause something worse. How do we know how much to do? How do we know what we should do? What's to say if humans start trying to influence the climate of the world they don't screw it up like everything else.

Now I'm off to study for a calculus final.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
474. pottery
3:14 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
good points, Fransisco. But the increase would be very minimal.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
473. franciscolopezus
3:06 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Quoting Autistic2:
After looking on Google I found out that the earth has had AT LEAST four major ice ages. The earth warmed up between these ices ages and there were no people around at the time (that we know of).
My question is this. What makes us think this “Global Warming” has anything to do with us and should we even try to stop it? The earth is pretty well made to take care of itself in some matters.


There are several cycles superimposed and overlapping each other (from equinox precession, to carbon cycles, evolution of marine and atmospheric currents due continental mass distributions due tectonic forces, sun activity, etc) plus the incidence of volcanism (which probably got the planet out of being an Europa like ice block 500 Million years ago, when a runaway albedo induced a massive ice age covering the whole planet).

Once the statistical noise is taken out, it seems there is a high correlation between a rapidly increasing human production of greenhouse gases (mainly water vapor, methane, CO2)after the beginning of the industrial revolution (which coincides with the end of the little ice age, probably caused by the loss of salinity on the gulf stream due melting ice during a warming period) and the current trend in climate change.

Be aware that even without industry and other expressions of technological advances, just by the shear increase in population, the amount of greenhouse gases produced by humans would probably increase (we exhale H2O, CO2, produce methane every time we fart, cook, etc.)
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
472. sugarsand
3:06 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
GeoffreyWPB, I think watching Its A Wonderful Life this year will hit close to home for many. My favorite Christmas movie, for sure.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
471. pottery
3:03 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
LOL WPB.
3 rd cousin, twice removed I think.
heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
470. pottery
3:00 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Well, Autistic, if we put the economy first, then by all means we should carry on with the status quo. At any cost to our future.
Not that I notice any positive signs from the economy lately LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
468. GeoffreyWPB
2:56 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
pottery..your not related to mr. potter??? lol
remember...no one is a failure who has friends...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
467. sugarsand
2:56 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Rain is moving in by tomorrow evening. 90% chance on Wed. Gives me another excuse not to put up my outdoor Christmas lights! LOL!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
466. pottery
2:55 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Its 75 F, but feels cooler with the damp ground around the house. Will be misty in the early morning.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
465. Autistic2
2:55 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
I asked about the GW thing because I know several otherwise smart people that keep saying we should put a 5-10 $ per gallon tax on all petrol products. I tried to explain what this would do to our and other countries economy. They just don't care. They say stop GW at all cost. I just can't see it being that bad that quickly.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
464. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:54 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
my thoughts on G.W.

where going to see the outcome in next 20 yrs
good or bad its all a grand experiment who knows the outcome
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
463. pottery
2:52 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Fabulous one here too, Sugar, after several days of rain and damp.
Clear skies, cool breezes, nice moon out with stars as well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
462. sugarsand
2:47 AM GMT on December 09, 2008
Hi Pottery! Nice evening here in Florida!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.