Increasing hurricane damages

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:53 PM GMT on December 05, 2008

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A conference called the Hurricane Science for Safety Leadership Forum convened this week in Orlando to look at how we can better prepare for the inevitable hurricanes in our future. The conference brought together an interesting mix of experts--scientists from environmental groups like the National Wildlife Federation, insurance industry representitives, and a representative from the pro-business Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI).

There are a number of interesting Powerpoint and video presentations posted on their web site, for those interested. The most eye-opening fact I saw came during a presentation done by Amanda Staudt of the National Wildlife Federation. In her presentation on the policy implication of hurricanes and climate change, she showed that the population of South Florida is projected to grow from a 1990 population of 6.3 million to a 2050 population of 15-30 million people. That's a startling increase in population. Higher and higher hurricane damage tabs are inevitable in coming decades, just from this huge increase in population. She goes further, showing that if the theoretical predictions for global warming by the end of the century come true--a 2-13% increase in hurricane winds due to ocean warming, a 10-31% increase in hurricane rainfall, and an increase in sea level of several feet--there is likely to be a huge increase in hurricane damage, and probably in deaths, as well.

I have a few comments on this. While I believe that hurricane damages will continue to grow primarily because of population increases, higher wealth, and poor land management, the contribution of increased damage due to global warming will start to become significant by the end of the century. The 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming theorized by hurricane researcher Dr. Kerry Emanuel (Emanuel, 2005) may not seem like much, it will make a significant difference in the destructive power of the strongest storms. A Category 4 hurricane does about four times more damage than a Category 3 hurricane, and 250 times more damage than a Category 1 storm (Figure 1). Given the expected increase of tropical sea surface temperatures of 1-2 °C by 2100, hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%. Since the difference in wind speed between a Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane is about 15%, we can anticipate that the strongest hurricanes in 2100 will do 1 1/2 to 3 times more damage than they do now.

This may be an underestimate of the increase in damage, though. Global sea level rose about 0.75 feet last century, and is expected to rise 0.6 - 1.9 feet this century, according to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science this year concluded that the IPCC underestimated sea level rise, and that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet. If true, we can expect greatly increased damage from hurricane storm surges. However, it is possible that there will be fewer hurricanes by the end of the century, thanks to an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic (Vecchi and Soden, 2007).


Figure 1. Potential hurricane damage as a function of Saffir-Simpson category for U.S. hurricanes between 1925-1995. If the median damage from a Category 1 hurricane is normalized to be a "one", then Category 2, 3, and 4 hurricanes were 10, 50, and 250 times more damaging, respectively. Data taken from Pielke, Jr. R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: "Normalized Atlantic hurricane damage 1925-1995" Wea. Forecasting, 13, pp.621-631.

Better building codes
Congressman Bennie Thompson, D-MS, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, helped to kick off the conference with opening remarks that underscored his intention to hold Congressional hearings on developing new building codes in hurricane-prone areas. He was hopeful that President-elect Obama and new incoming head of Homeland Security, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, would work to adopt new, tougher building standards. "Take a look at the homes on the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas that are still standing after the hurricane," Thompson said. "We know how to build stronger homes. Now we just need to do it." Thompson said that while such legislation had been introduced in the past but failed, chances were better under an Obama administration of passage.

I think it is essential that more stringent and comprehensive building codes get adopted in hurricane alley to reduce the inevitable huge price tags from future hurricanes.

References
Emanuel, K. 2005, "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", Nature, 436, 4 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03906.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming", Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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Jeff: It sounds like the conference touched on some important issues, but I fear those who take action will not concentrate on the most important piece: poor land use choices. Florida should be ashamed of itself for not doing much more to encourage much more sensible land use policies. Perhaps the insurance industry will take care of it, by refusing to provide coverage for those who are practicing contributory neglience. All states need to do a better job of reining in over-zealous development which clearly puts the taxpayer at risk.
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i am sorry but i really do not think the WMO will retire gustav they are just as conservative as the nhc and willl not retire it it was overestimated
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good day pottery its -10c here with a wind chill of -21c with 5 cm of snow on the ground
in f thats 14 chill -6
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Hello there.
Temp 86 f
Humid. 70 %
Wind calm
Scattered cloud/overcast
Nice day
Perfect Christmas weather LOL
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208. JRRP
Link
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Quoting vortfix:
Here's the snowfall probability chart for day 2...tomorrow.
This will likely change to more snow over your area tomorrow morning GBlet.
For now it looks like less than 4" is forecast.



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Hmmm. . . looks like even the Wind River Basin in central WY will get some snow from that weather . . . .
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Yeah, yeah...I remember that mess in May!
And Dolly when it cruised through your area.
Pretty wacky weather you have there GBlet.

I gotta run off...good luck!

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205. GBlet
See what I mean, last year it was about 65 in the middle of May. We had a tornado watch, a wind warning, and a winter storm warning all at the same time. Lost all of my flowers. This is a crazy place to live! I love weather, the only thing I'm missing are hurricanes and I actually got to see Dolly pass over with enough substance left to identify her.
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Hey, everybody! Just looking in for a minute or two.
Quoting zoomiami:
Good morning - foggy here today. Not much of temperature change in Miami, suppose to be cooler tonight

Something wrong with putting up Christams lights and sweating!
U are SO wrong!!! We're used to doing it all the time! LOL

I admit I'm looking forward to Christmas a bit more this year, though, because it does seem like we will get some genuinely wintry weather (by that I mean weather highs in the low/mid 70s, as opposed to the low/mid 80s we've been having off and on for years now . . . :o)

I'm gone for a while. The weather outside today is GORGEOUS!
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Looks like a potentially nasty troublemaker:


MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 AM PST SUN DEC 7 2008

PZZ650-655-676-072145-
/X.CON.KLOX.MA.S.0022.000000T0000Z-081208T0300Z/
EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL FROM PT. CONCEPTION TO PT. MUGU
INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS-
INNER WATERS FROM POINT MUGU TO SAN MATEO PT. CA INCLUDING SANTA
CATALINA AND SANTA BARBARA ISLANDS-
OUTER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO
60 NM OFFSHORE INCLUDING SAN NICOLAS ISLAND-
545 AM PST SUN DEC 7 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY...

A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
AND EAST OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO OCEAN
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS. AS THE
CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES OVER LAND THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE.

BOATERS ARE URGED TO KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES ON
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46051
OK....I thought you were kinda in the middle GBlet.

Denver has already begun issuing winter storm watches.

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200. GBlet
We are considered the center of the state.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
747 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-072300-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
ALAMOGORDO...MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TIMBERON...LORDSBURG...
DEMING...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO...SIERRA BLANCA...DELL CITY
747 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008

...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING STORMS SET TO HIT THE BORDERLAND
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...

TWO STORMS ARE LINING UP TO SWEEP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL BEGIN PUSHING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
START TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER AND WORK IT`S WAY EAST. THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RAPIDLY...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO THE CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET.

STORM NUMBER TWO WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...THE SPEED OF THE STORM WILL TAKE IT EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
COME DOWN TO MUCH LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW LEVEL ON TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET OR EVEN BRIEFLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION IN CASE
WINTER WEATHER DOES DEVELOP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.


Yikes!
Almost the entire state of New Mexico is above 5-6,000 feet!

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198. GBlet
Vort, I read both because we on the dividing line. Wichita claims us, but Dodge handle Hays which is about 60mi nw of here.
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Which is your local NWS office GBlet?
Dodge City or Wichita?

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193. IKE
I read where dew points along the lower gulf-coast will reach the mid 60's with this upcoming system.
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192. GBlet
Aqua, we bought it from a friend so we were familar with already. My boyfriend thinks I am nut for always trying to be prepared. I'm a good Girl Scout!
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191. IKE
12Z GFS at 60 hours...low pressure intensifying over NE Arkansas and the boot-heel of Missouri....strong winds over a majority of the eastern USA....

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Yeah...good advice Aqua!
Haven't we all had those problems!!
Argh

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189. GBlet
Sounds crazy, but I am kinda lucky. We still use propane room heaters and a fireplace. I have my 20 gallons of water stored already(we are on well water), plenty of wood in dry storage. So the city folks with central heat will be in real bad shape with no power. It's alot like being prepared for hurricane season.
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I'm glad to hear you are prepared for the bad winter weather GBlet.
Remember what happened almost one year ago?




One year later, we don't seem to have come very far.

On Dec. 10, 2007, an ice storm unlike any before struck Tulsa.

If you were here a year ago I don't need to remind you of the days of darkness: no heat, no light, not many options.

At any moment it seemed, any one of a dozen disasters could strike — the neighbor's tree could come crashing through the roof, the pipes could burst, we could all die of carbon monoxide poisoning — and there wasn't a thing we could do about it. In the middle of a modern city, there was the hopeless feeling of being cut off from the world we thought we knew.

Or, to be more precise, we grew increasingly aware of the fact that our previous lives — the life of the comfortable electric-light city — were what was cut off from reality.

We all got a taste of bitter potentials of life when we were disconnected from the modern conveniences that we use to create a false sense of security in an insecure world.

We live on the brink of disaster with something as tenuous as an electrical wire — an outdoor electrical wire virtually unprotected from the hardships of weather and circumstance — tethering us to our comfortable lives.

The storm caused some $780 million in damage and resulted in 29 deaths, according to the Oklahoma Corporation Commission.
Link
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My mistake - checked my own map - your in the middle!
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gblet- give that new genny a test run. Practice makes perfect!
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Gblet - you're in Maine aren't you?

Just spoke to my daughter there, and its snowing.
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184. GBlet
Usually just flurries here and there until Christmas. By the first of Jan. we begin to get either snowstorm or severe ice storm that shuts down eveything. People to the west of us get hit hard and we lose cattle almost every year. Last year cattle had to be fed by the National Guard by air, because western half of the state was froze in for weeks with no power.
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Too cold to sit and read on the piazza (49F), but too pretty a day to sit in front of the computer all day.
Hope you all have a mighty fine day!
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if it were up to me i would retire gustav ike hanna and paloma but the WMO i heard is very conservative so i dont think that they wil decide to retire gutsav or paloma
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as i understand that although gustav was very bad and i am assuming the media was extremely wrong it actually did not cause 18 bilion dollars it only caused 8.3 billion which i dont think the conservative WMO will retire
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Quoting GBlet:
Good chance I will not get to work on Tue. I live on a true north/south road with no tree lines to block winds, so we usually get buried with anything over 4". Looking forward to day off!!

I suppse I should hope the you get the 4" of snow!
What is your usual snow fall this time of year?
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179. GBlet
Waitng for next forecast to see how many changes are made. Right now it looks to be a beautiful day here on Piggy Piggy.
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Here's the snowfall probability chart for day 2...tomorrow.
This will likely change to more snow over your area tomorrow morning GBlet.
For now it looks like less than 4" is forecast.



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177. GBlet
Good chance I will not get to work on Tue. I live on a true north/south road with no tree lines to block winds, so we usually get buried with anything over 4". Looking forward to day off!!
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RE:166 & 167 PensacolaDoug I have to say that I agree.

I might give the "human-caused" global warming more credence if there did not seem to be such a concerted effort to ridicule, vilify and silence any who disagree. Only those who agree with the "majority" of scientist are credible. Reminiscent of the treatment of dissenters by the "majority" of scholars who insisted the world was not round.

Though I might not go quite as far as Tom DeWeese, I quote from his writings:Global Warming: The Other Side of the Story (May 19, 2006)
It has become a religion run by fanatics reminiscent of the leaders of the darkest days of the Inquisition that nearly destroyed civil society only a few hundred years ago. We are not to question the great god of Catastrophic Global Warming. Those who do are separated from civil society and labeled as heretics.

Searching the internet, I have tried to find the $$$ amount of grants (the life blood of science research)that have been given to research this very important issue. I have been unable to find if they are disproportionately awarded to those with a particular view point. I certainly hope that is not the case.

In the case of those scientist promoting the theory of "human caused, catastrophic" global warming, I wonder 'Are these the same scientist who insisted that we switch from paper (a renewable resource) to plastic (petroleum product)?'

There has been a strong case for global warming - in the view of our earths history of climate change, I find it reasonable to disagree on how much is "human-caused". While we concentrate on correcting the "human-caused" factors (which may play a very small role) are we squandering resources that could be better spent on determining the what should be done about it. We have the resources that our ancestors did not have, when they were faced with climate changes - I would like to see more emphasis on that sort of study.

Reality or bad science? How will we know unless there is free and open discussion.

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Seems like another active season across the Atlantic Basin per Tropical Storm Risk in 2009.

Remember numbers predicted are not important as the ones that hit land have the greatest impact.
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Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46051
Not much happening here in the short term, lots of cloud and overcastness...

Though latest run wants to indicate 3 straight days of snow. Doubt that's going to happen.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
513 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008


SYNOPSIS...
STRONG(!) NW MID-UPR FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER CNTRL THIRD OF U.S. EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH TROF DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES APPALACHIANS WITH UPR
RIDGE DAMPENING OVER W COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM
GULF OF AK. NEARLY STACKED MID-UPR LOW SPENT THE NIGHT JUST OFF SRN CA.
DOWNSTAIRS...A DEVELOPING SFC TROF SITUATED IN A N-S MANNER OVER THE WRN
PLAINS WAS INDUCING SE LWR-DECK FLOW TO GET BETTER ESTABLISHED. WITH THE
PAC NW SHORT-WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...GREATEST
ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE AS IT WILL PLAY A
VITAL ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUE &
TUE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT:
WILL PLACE GREATEST FOCUS ON THESE PERIODS AS THEY CONTINUE TO BE MOST
VOLATILE OF THE FORECAST. THE AFORE-MENTIONED PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPRINT SE...STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CNTRL
ROCKIES MON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL KICK THE MID-UPR LOW POSITIONED
OFF THE SRN CA COAST E ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHICH...
IN TURN...WILL INDUCE SFC-850MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE PANHANDLES NE TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY. SUCH EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE
N FROM THE ERN RIVER TO ERN KS FROM MON THRU EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH THE
MID-UPR SHORTWAVE PHASING IN WITH THE MEAN MID-UPR TROF OVER CO/NM...THE
SFC CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT VENTURES E ACROSS OK MON
NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE FLOW IN THE SFC-850MB LAYER TO BACK AROUND TO A
NLY COMPONENT THAT`LL INCREASE GREATLY TUE MORNING...THUS PROMOTING A
MARKED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE REGION. BY TUE MORNING THE
PIVOTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SURGED SE INTO SE KS...THEREBY
ENABLING STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
AREAS OF SN WILL DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS LATE MON NIGHT WITH A BAND OF RA/
SN GENERALLY ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO PRODUCE RA (& POSSIBLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TS) OVER SE KS MON NIGHT. BY ~12 NOON TUE A STRONG NLY FLOW
WILL HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL OF KICT COUNTRY WITH SN SPREADING OVER ALL BUT
EXTREME SE KS WHERE A RA/SN MIXTURE IS EXPECTED. SUCH A PATTERN CLEARLY
TRANSLATES INTO A SN/BLSN EVENT FOR ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS ON TUE. WITH
THE NAM COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF EARLY
TUE MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALLS
WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL & SC KS ON TUE. (ESPECIALLY CNTRL KS) AND WITH NLY
WINDS OF 20-30MPH...BLSN WOULD BE CERTAIN THREAT. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE NIGHT...THE GREATEST SN &
BLSN POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT OVER ERN KS WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING TUE
EVENING. HAVE LEFT INHERITED POPS/WX UNCHANGED FOR TUE NIGHT SO AS TO
ALLOW SUCCESSOR OPPORTUNITY TO STUDY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

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Happy to hear about that generator GBlet!
It's going to be windy, snowy and cold!

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171. GBlet
Beginning to look like we are gonna get it here in Kansas tomorrow night. YIPPEEEE!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Not much fan fair with the present cold-front as it will drop temps in southeast-florida in the mid to upper 50's followed by beach weather come mid week. Adrian


Yea by the amplified upcoming front should push through all of Florida by late thursday early Friday and drop overnight lows into the 40s. This one doesn't look like it's going to wash out so we should get a decent chance of rain. We're not going to get the severe weather potential though as Mississippi, Alambama, and Georgia will have. Nice thermodynamics setting up there. I doubt that we will see the baroclinic cyclone the models were pushing for initially, though the totals for South Florida would probably be the same. I'll have an updated blog on it tomorrow.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Good morning - foggy here today. Not much of temperature change in Miami, suppose to be cooler tonight

Something wrong with putting up Christams lights and sweating!


Not much fan fair with the present cold-front as it will drop temps in southeast-florida in the mid to upper 50's followed by beach weather come mid week. Adrian
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168. GBlet
Good morning everyone! Vort! Anybody have info on storm headed this way? Bought a genny a couple of days ago, because it has been at least 10 years since we have gone without power during the winter and I have a feeling that this is our year. Sure hope I am wrong...
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102. PensacolaDoug 7:49 PM GMT on December 06, 2008
The politcal agenda driving GW is hysterical to the point of lunacy. I'm not convinced either way tho it does appear the last few years have seen a little cooling. It does seem to me however that anyone who doesn't agree with the manmade GW theory, gets shouted down. There needs to be free and open debate amongst scientist and climate experts w/o the dissenters being stygamtized or osterasized. This is too important an issue to
for there not to be. An open mind and honest, accurate, data is a must. My 2 cents


Quoting MichaelSTL:




You ought to read this... the scientific consensus on global warming is not a bunch of "hype", nor is it some sort of "scam" (what would the benefits be and do you REALLY believe that millions of scientists are together in some sort of cult? - if you do, then you are truly deluded...). Also, try talking with actual climate scientists here; ask them some questions or to clarify whatever causes you to post derisive comments like this.


Derisive comments?
What derisive comment?
I didn't say it wasnt real.
I didn't make a derisive comment.
If you took it that way, that only makes my point for me.

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102. PensacolaDoug 7:49 PM GMT on December 06, 2008
The politcal agenda driving GW is hysterical to the point of lunacy. I'm not convinced either way tho it does appear the last few years have seen a little cooling. It does seem to me however that anyone who doesn't agree with the manmade GW theory, gets shouted down. There needs to be free and open debate amongst scientist and climate experts w/o the dissenters being stygamtized or osterasized. This is too important an issue to
for there not to be. An open mind and honest, accurate, data is a must. My 2 cents

Sunlakedude resondes:
Pensacola Doug, Are these observations you've made from actual measurements you've made or just a hunch because it seems that it's been cooler lately? The global models show significant planet-wide warming. This is where the belief in Global Warming comes from and it cannot be discounted just because one portion of the plant happens to have a cooler than normal year. Why is it that whenever I hear someone deny the existence of Global Warming, upon further examination, the person turns out to be politically conservative? Could it be because of the nature of conservatism to fear change or to fear the future? Climate Change is a fact. Denying it, isn't going to make it go away just because we want so much to continue to drive our large vehicles large distances to accomodate our current living arrangement. Global Warming deniers are being discounted because they have failed to show statistically accurate and relevant data showing that planet-wide warming is not taking place. The believers, on the other hand, have done so



See what I mean about lunacy?? In my previous post, I didn't say GW was a hoax. I said I wasn't convinced either way and that there should be a accurate and open debate amongst the scientific types.

And then look at the response. Apparently we're not even allowed to questtion it. Sheeessh..





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More information and Links to Surmom in the comments section... and last but not least.. my first vacation pre-post




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Quoting IKE:
Long-term discussion from Birmingham,AL....

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD REACH 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. THE GFS IS NOW FORECAST A 70 KT LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
ALABAMA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED AND WILL BUMP UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO TO SEVERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM UNFOLD AS SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EAST
ALABAMA BY NOON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY COME DURING THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE STATE. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK OR POSSIBLY CAUSE THEM TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. A SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.



Looks like the NWS agrees with me.
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Good Morning all
Good Afternoon, Cotillion,
Hi Press
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In S. Ontario, we have about 6 cm (2 in) of snow. More snow is coming, perhaps around 20 cm (8 in) in the next few days, although some areas already have more than 60 cm (2 ft). Again, I think Gustav, Hanna, and Ike should most definitely be retired, Dolly and Paloma have a 50/50 chance, and Fay, Kyle, and Omar are the wildcards.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.