Winter forecast, part II: NOAA's predicts a warm winter for the Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2008

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Let's follow up on yesterday's discussion about the long range forecast for the coming United States winter. Those of you outside the U.S. will probably be more interested in what the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction has to say for your country, and I encourage you to check out their excellent web site for their seasonal forecasts.

The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 90-day forecast for the upcoming winter, issued on November 20 by their Climate Prediction Center (CPC), calls for above average temperatures across the Central U.S. and Alaska. The remainder of the country has equal chances of above or below average temperatures. A dryer than average winter is expected over much of the Southern U.S., including the drought-stricken Southeast U.S.


Figure 1. Temperature forecast for the upcoming winter--December, January, and February 2009--made by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. No areas of the country ar forecast to have an above-average chance of being colder than normal, but the Central U.S. has up to a 50% chance of having above-average temperatures.

How are the NOAA winter forecasts made?
NOAA uses several tools to make their forecasts. One key tool is their Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. This model includes a version of the GFS forecast model that we use for everyday weather and hurricane track forecasts. The CFS model also includes an ocean model that interacts with the atmospheric model. These models solve mathematical equations of fluid flow using a supercomputer for the entire globe, on a 100-km grid. NOAA also uses statistical models, which look at past winters and see how they depended on quantities such as sea surface temperature anomalies. Temperature trends are important, too--if it has been warmer than average the last ten years, it's a good idea to forecast a warmer than average winter.


Figure 2. Skill of the official 90-day forecasts issued 0.5 months in advance by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Note that the average skill over the past ten years is not very high (9 on a scale of 0 to 100), and has remained flat, indicating that our skill in making long-range forecasts has not improved.

How good are the NOAA winter forecasts?
NOAA rates its forecasts using the Heidke skill score, which is a measure of how well a forecast did relative to a randomly selected forecast. A score of 0 means that the forecast did no better than what would be expected by chance. A score of 100 depicts a "perfect" forecast, and a score of -50 depicts the "worst possible" forecast. For 90-day temperature forecasts issued 0.5 months in advance, NOAA has averaged a 9 out of 100 on the Heidke scale since 1995 (Figure 2). So, while there is some skill in forecasting what winter temperatures will be like, this skill is not much better than flipping a coin. Depressingly, Heidke skill scores for three-month precipitation forecasts are even worse, averaging just a one on a scale of 1 to 100 over the past 15 years.

Let's look at some examples. Last's year's winter temperature forecast issued in mid-November did poorly (Figure 3), failing to forecast that the U.S. would have equal areas with both above and below average temperatures. The 90-day forecast done in mid-November of 2005 for the winter of 2005-2006 was awesome, with a Heidke skill score of 45. However, the 90-day forecast done in mid-November of 2006 for the winter of 2006-2007 had virtually no skill, with a Heidke skill score of one.



Figure 3. Temperature forecast for Dec 2007-Feb 2008 issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on November 15, 2007 (top). They predicted Equal Chances (EC) of either above or below-average temperatures for the Northwestern U.S. (white colored areas), and a 30-60% chance of above average temperatures over most of the remainder of the country. In reality, the U.S. experienced an average winter, with approximately equal areas of the country receiving above and below average temperatures (bottom). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Why do seasonal forecasts do so poorly? Primarily, it's because the long-term weather patterns are chaotic and fundamentally unpredictable. To a lesser degree, we are limited by our imperfect physical understanding of what controls the climate, and our imperfect computer models we use to simulate the climate. As computer power continues to increase and our models include better representations of the weather and climate at finer grid sizes, I anticipate that seasonal forecasts will improve. However, given that long-range forecasts have not improved since 1995 despite a large increase in computer power, I doubt that this improvement will be more than 10-20% over the next thirty years.

Seasonal forecast models vs. climate models
A common complaint one hears about global warming predictions made by climate models is, "How can we trust the predictions of these climate modes, when they so such a lousy job with seasonal forecasts?" It's a good question, and there is no doubt that seasonal forecasts have pretty marginal skill. However, there is a fundamental difference between making a seasonal forecast and making a 100-year climate forecast. A seasonal or a short-term weather forecast is what mathematicians call an "initial value" problem. One starts with a set of initial meteorological and oceanographic values that specify the initial state of the planet's weather, then solve the equations of fluid flow to arrive at the state of the atmosphere a few days, weeks, or months into the future. This forecast is highly sensitive to any imperfections one has in the initial conditions. Since there are large regions of the atmosphere and ocean we don't sample, it's guaranteed that the prediction will suffer significantly from imperfect initial conditions. Furthermore, the chaotic and turbulent nature of the atmosphere leads to many "bumps" in the weather pattern over time scales of days, weeks, and months. The nature of turbulence makes it impossible to accurately forecast these "bumps" that are superimposed on the mean state of the climate.

A 100-year climate forecast, on the other hand, is what mathematicians call a "boundary value" problem. Given an initial and final set of factors (called "forcings") that influence the climate, one runs a climate model 100 years into the future. The final state of the climate will depend on the strength of the forcings supplied. This type of model is not very sensitive to initial conditions, and is not trying to forecast the "bumps" of chaotic, turbulent atmospheric motion superimposed on the mean climate. Rather, one is trying to forecast the mean climate. As computer power increases and our physical understanding of how the climate works grows, these type of models will continue to significantly improve. While climate models do fail to properly simulate important aspects of our past climate, such as the Arctic warming of the 1930s, and the observed 0.1°C global temperature increase that occurs at the peak of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle, they have been very successful at simulating things like the global cooling triggered by the 1992 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, and the observed pattern of greatest global warming in the Arctic. I believe that climate models are already significantly more reliable than seasonal forecast models, and should continue to improve steadily in coming years.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
Saturday is the portlight.org Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk. This is a fundraiser to buy gifts for the kids along the Gulf Coast who might not have much in their stockings this year because of the ravages of Hurricane Ike. Our own StormJunkie will be walking up the Arthur Ravenel Jr. Bridge in Charleston, SC, and will be taking his webcam along. Tune in to the webcam site at 2:30 pm EST to follow the walk, and participate in a live chat. Sponsorships of any amount, small or large, are appreciated! The cam will go active about an hour before the walk. It should be a cold but beautiful day.

Jeff Masters

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488. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:49 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
iam in southern ontario near western lake ontario
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
486. futuremet
1:37 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18 f out side my door wind chill 9 f


Brrr

where do you live keeper?
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
485. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:33 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
18 f out side my door wind chill 9 f
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
484. Hurricane4Lex
1:11 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
They still haven't updated the map yet on the nhc saw the TWO tho
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
483. futuremet
12:56 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
BEAUTY OF THE BEASTS

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
482. Hurricane4Lex
12:52 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
We have an area of disturbed weather?

Man I over slept LOL

what else is new?

PS brrrrrrrrrrrrr winter comes with a vengance

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
481. Skyepony (Mod)
12:51 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
The wave in the east caribbean could make the sw caribbean blob even more interesting in a day or so.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 39718
480. Tazmanian
12:30 AM GMT on November 23, 2008



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115493
479. Cotillion
12:29 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
Interesting TWO.

I'd put shear more than land interaction. It's under 40kt of shear, and it's increasing. Under that much, I can't see any development.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
478. CybrTeddy
12:29 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
Somethings up in the Tropics.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24598
477. GeoffreyWPB
12:26 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE PANAMA-COSTA
RICA BORDER IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11576
476. hurricanemaniac123
12:23 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
How come there wasn't a TWO yet from the NHC?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
475. TampaBayHurricane
12:16 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
Alright folks, extra heat energy --> jet stream energy --> extreme cold winter/extreme hot
summer.

Glaciers melting worldwide. Don't believe me?
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf


And:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf

[quote]1.1 Observations of climate change
Since the TAR, progress in understanding how climate is changing
in space and time has been gained through improvements and
extensions of numerous datasets and data analyses, broader geographical
coverage, better understanding of uncertainties and a wider
variety of measurements. {WGI SPM}
Definitions of climate change
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to a change in the state
of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests)
by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties,
and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or
longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether
due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This
usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change
refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly
to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations of increases in global average
air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice and rising global average sea level (Figure 1.1). {WGI
3.2, 4.8, 5.2, 5.5, SPM}
Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the
twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface
temperature (since 1850). The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005)
of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]°C is larger than the corresponding trend of
0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C (1901-2000) given in the TAR (Figure 1.1). The
linear warming trend over the 50 years from 1956 to 2005 (0.13
[0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100 years
from 1906 to 2005. {WGI 3.2, SPM}
The temperature increase is widespread over the globe and is
greater at higher northern latitudes (Figure 1.2). Average Arctic temperatures
have increased at almost twice the global average rate in
the past 100 years. Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans
(Figures 1.2 and 2.5). Observations since 1961 show that the average
temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at
least 3000m and that the ocean has been taking up over 80% of the
heat being added to the climate system. New analyses of balloonborne
and satellite measurements of lower- and mid-tropospheric
temperature show warming rates similar to those observed in surface
temperature. {WGI 3.2, 3.4, 5.2, SPM}
Increases in sea level are consistent with warming (Figure 1.1).
Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]mm
per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 [2.4
to 3.8]mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Whether this faster rate for
1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the longerterm
trend is unclear. Since 1993 thermal expansion of the oceans
has contributed about 57% of the sum of the estimated individual
contributions to the sea level rise, with decreases in glaciers and
ice caps contributing about 28% and losses from the polar ice sheets
contributing the remainder. From 1993 to 2003 the sum of these
climate contributions is consistent within uncertainties with the total
sea level rise that is directly observed. {WGI 4.6, 4.8, 5.5, SPM, Table
SPM.1}
Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent
with warming (Figure 1.1). Satellite data since 1978 show that annual
average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]%
per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]%
per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have
declined in both hemispheres. The maximum areal extent of seasonally
frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern
Hemisphere since 1900, with decreases in spring of up to 15%.
Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased
since the 1980s in the Arctic by up to 3°C. {WGI 3.2, 4.5, 4.6,
4.7, 4.8, 5.5, SPM}
At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous longterm
changes in other aspects of climate have also been observed.
Trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation
amount in many large regions. Over this period, precipitation increased
significantly in eastern parts of North and South America,
northern Europe and northern and central Asia whereas precipitation
declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and
parts of southern Asia. Globally, the area affected by drought has
likely2 increased since the 1970s. {WGI 3.3, 3.9, SPM}
Some extreme weather events have changed in frequency and/
or intensity over the last 50 years:
 It is very likely that cold days, cold nights and frosts have become
less frequent over most land areas, while hot days and
hot nights have become more frequent. {WGI 3.8, SPM}
 It is likely that heat waves have become more frequent over
most land areas. {WGI 3.8, SPM}
 It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation events (or
proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over
most areas. {WGI 3.8, 3.9, SPM}
 It is likely that the incidence of extreme high sea level3 has
increased at a broad range of sites worldwide since 1975. {WGI
5.5, SPM}
There is observational evidence of an increase in intense tropical
cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, and suggestions
of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions
where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability
and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine
satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of longterm
trends in tropical cyclone activity. {WGI 3.8, SPM}
Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second
half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other
50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least
the past 1300 years. {WGI 6.6, SPM}
2 Likelihood and confidence statements in italics represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. See Box ‘Treatment of uncertainty’ in the
Introduction for an explanation of these terms.
3 Excluding tsunamis, which are not due to climate change. Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. It is
defined here as the highest 1% of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.[/quote]

Also: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
[quote]Causes of change
This Topic considers both natural and anthropogenic drivers of
climate change, including the chain from greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to atmospheric concentrations to radiative forcing4 to
climate responses and effects.
2.1 Emissions of long-lived GHGs
The radiative forcing of the climate system is dominated by the
long-lived GHGs, and this section considers those whose emissions
are covered by the UNFCCC.
Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown
since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between
1970 and 2004 (Figure 2.1).5 {WGIII 1.3, SPM}
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG.
Its annual emissions have grown between 1970 and 2004 by about
80%, from 21 to 38 gigatonnes (Gt), and represented 77% of total
anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 (Figure 2.1). The rate of
growth of CO2-eq emissions was much higher during the recent
10-year period of 1995-2004 (0.92 GtCO2-eq per year) than during
the previous period of 1970-1994 (0.43 GtCO2-eq per year). {WGIII
1.3, TS.1, SPM}
4 Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and
is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. In this report radiative forcing values are for changes relative to preindustrial
conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in watts per square metre (W/m2).
5 Includes only carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphurhexafluoride
(SF6), whose emissions are covered by the UNFCCC. These GHGs are weighted by their 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), using values
consistent with reporting under the UNFCCC.
6 This report uses 100-year GWPs and numerical values consistent with reporting under the UNFCCC.
7 Such values may consider only GHGs, or a combination of GHGs and aerosols.
Carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions and
concentrations
GHGs differ in their warming influence (radiative forcing) on
the global climate system due to their different radiative properties
and lifetimes in the atmosphere. These warming influences
may be expressed through a common metric based on
the radiative forcing of CO2.
• CO2-equivalent emission is the amount of CO2 emission
that would cause the same time-integrated radiative forcing,
over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of a longlived
GHG or a mixture of GHGs. The equivalent CO2 emission
is obtained by multiplying the emission of a GHG by its
Global Warming Potential (GWP) for the given time horizon.6
For a mix of GHGs it is obtained by summing the equivalent
CO2 emissions of each gas. Equivalent CO2 emission is a
standard and useful metric for comparing emissions of different
GHGs but does not imply the same climate change
responses (see WGI 2.10).
• CO2-equivalent concentration is the concentration of CO2
that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a
given mixture of CO2 and other forcing components.7
Figure 2.1. (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004.5 (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004
in terms of CO2-eq. (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation.) {WGIII[/quote]
[size=200]How can an entire group of international, unbiased scientists be totally wrong
on global warming?[/size]

Go visit the Alaska cities where people
living there have noticed the unprecedented changes, or visit people by the
glaciers.

http://www.climatehotmap.org/
Look at the map.

[quote]FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures
Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Glaciers melting
Arctic and Antarctic warming

HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.
Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and population changes
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires
The map of early warning signs clearly illustrates the global nature of climate changes. In its 2001 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that, �an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system."

While North America and Europe—where the science is strongest—exhibit the highest density of indicators, scientists have made a great effort in recent years to document the early impacts of global warming on other continents. Our map update reflects this emerging knowledge from all parts of the world.

Although factors other than climate may have intensified the severity of some of the events on the map, scientists predict such problems will increase if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not brought under control.[/quote]


Also: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
[quote]The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates.

According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). Additionally, it is very likely that heat waves and other hot extremes will increase.[/quote]

[img]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/globalwarming/ar4-fig-spm-5.gif[/img]
474. Cotillion
12:06 AM GMT on November 23, 2008
By the way guys, on the SST map, anyone else noticed the Northern Australian anomaly?

It goes from around 30C waters to about 14...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
473. theshepherd
11:59 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Skyepony
Cruised your blog today.
Wow, most impressive.
And you're quite the shutterbug.
God speed...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 10179
472. Skyepony (Mod)
11:42 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
THE devastation from last week's brutal storms in south-east Queensland has left the region shell-shocked, but new research indicates this type of weather could be the norm for the next 30 years.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 39718
471. beell
11:39 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL. I can't wishcast for snow here in South Florida lol. Deep south meaning Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi something like mid January of this year.


Aw, c'mon. Wish. Based on the over-abundant preponderance of querulous FL-based posts regarding recent anamolous sensible weather,...

You be da only one!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17048
470. Cotillion
11:36 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Thanks for the idea on alcohol Surfmom...

First one in a few months... now that's what I call refreshment...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
469. RobDaHood
11:33 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Drak...maybe you have the vampire gene as well (LOL)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 103 Comments: 34049
468. RobDaHood
11:32 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Surfmom,

Thanks for the new blog name, and for your support. Thanks also to all of you who have contributed and posted. I want to make it a special place for all my blog friends and look to you for direction...

Had a great day w/the boats... will be back after dinner.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 103 Comments: 34049
467. Drakoen
11:25 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
I am still defrosting, and the kitchen beckens.

Drak... you are never sleeping

Gamma, ..."what was I thinking?, LOL --my bones require alcohol after that adventure...

I miss the summer sun......


I do sleep. I don't post as often as I use to...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31039
466. Drakoen
11:25 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting beell:


Yo're slippin' Drak LOL. I detect some wishsnow casting in the last few posts of yours. Today's 12Z 360+ hours-the very idea!





LOL. I can't wishcast for snow here in South Florida lol. Deep south meaning Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi something like mid January of this year.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31039
465. beell
11:05 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. Even showing the potential for some deep south snow.


Yo're slippin' Drak LOL. I detect some wishsnow casting in the last few posts of yours. Today's 12Z 360+ hours-the very idea!



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17048
464. AstroHurricane001
10:59 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Are you guys looking at that system in the SW Caribbean? I've been keeping tabs on it. The water under it is a warm 29 C (84 F), and it's expanding and slowly moving NNW. It seems to be under a generally moist and low-pressure system with plenty of convection, and a weak anticyclone appears to be covering it. However, the system is under a strong 30 kt of wind shear, and shear to its north is 40 - 70 kt. Nevertheless, most models predict the system to hover around the SW Caribbean and for the shear near Panama to stay low, and CMC is even suggesting the system will redevelop as a tropical low in the East Pacific off Panama. I think I remember on a previous blog something about a positive MJO cycle entering the SW Caribbean late November, which fits the description of this system. If not for the strong wind shear and blocking ridge north of the system, this might have actually developed. I think the chances of this surviving are pretty low, unless it can somehow develop a small patch of circulation as Marco's precursor system did over the Yucatan.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2837
463. surfmom
10:58 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
It's not the "what" or the "how much" that you did for Portlight... it's the just doing it. I wanted an adventure... so this was a great excuse LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
462. seflagamma
10:55 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Surfmom,

I answered on your blog.. Girlfriend, you are move woman that I am to go out in a cold ocean in the winter.. Please get something "warm" inside you quickly!!!! LOL

I did a quick 30 min 2 mile walk this morning and gave a donation but couldn't really do much more than that since working today.


Congratulations on a job well done!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 303 Comments: 40961
461. Seastep
10:54 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
460. theshepherd
10:49 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
good job mom
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 10179
459. surfmom
10:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
I am still defrosting, and the kitchen beckens.

Drak... you are never sleeping

Gamma, ..."what was I thinking?, LOL --my bones require alcohol after that adventure...

I miss the summer sun......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
458. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:42 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
For those of you NOT seeing the adverts on the blog here... You may have missed that the prominent ad up top is now very often for Portlight.org

Good work Wunderground!

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
457. Seastep
10:41 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Satellite presentation is impressive... if this were mid-season this board would be hummin'
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
456. surfmom
10:37 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Woo Hooo - Wild Women Don't Get the Blues - did my PORTLIGHT.ORG paddle in the Gomex.... Air 66
water 68 brrrrr - thank God for Neoprene LOL...this was my penance for surfing 'cane waves.

Kinda fun moving through the water, thinking of everyone, everywhere doing the walk or whatever....with PortLight in mind. Real Cool
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
455. stormwatcherCI
10:36 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:
just took a look on water vapor and it is really looking good.. which direction is it going?
Looks more NW to me.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:29 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
good rain maker some 100mm plus totals possible with some gusty winds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
453. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:26 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
anything is possible but not likly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
452. all4hurricanes
10:23 PM GMT on November 22, 2008

39 years ago yesterday
think we could get Martha
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2378
451. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:21 PM GMT on November 22, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think that looks like a TS NHC should at least put a yellow circle around it
its just an area of interest at the moment lets see what darkness does to it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392

Here's the MWR for December 1962. The upcoming patterm looks quite similar. Glad to have used the winter of 1962-63 as an analog year for my winter forecast.
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It's getting very heavily sheared though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
I think that looks like a TS NHC should at least put a yellow circle around it
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2378
Quoting txag91met:
If you look closely at the new numerical guidance, there should be a significant Arctic intrusion into the USA in the next 2 weeks. GFS/ECMWF both suggesting this pattern change...should be interesting weather...


Yea. Even showing the potential for some deep south snow.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31039
7 days
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
If you look closely at the new numerical guidance, there should be a significant Arctic intrusion into the USA in the next 2 weeks. GFS/ECMWF both suggesting this pattern change...should be interesting weather...
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Correct answer!!!! ding ding ding!!!


Thank goodness... was holding my breath waiting for the answer and hoping you said west!

ok, there is hope our season will end soon.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 303 Comments: 40961
west
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
just took a look on water vapor and it is really looking good.. which direction is it going?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 303 Comments: 40961
been watchin that area since last night
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 56392
Quoting seflagamma:
Drak, just saw your post.. so you also see it?

Is it going anywhere???


Moving slowly. Steering should take it into Central America... eventually.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31039
Drak, just saw your post.. so you also see it?

Is it going anywhere???
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 303 Comments: 40961
Hi everyone,

was hoping we are done with "swirls" but is that a "swirl" I see in the SW Caribbean?
Please tell me it is "nothing"..


bbl,
gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 303 Comments: 40961

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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