Santa Ana winds ease over Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on November 17, 2008

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The Santa Ana winds have died down over Los Angeles, and winds should remain below 25 mph today through Thursday over the region. This should allow fire fighters to gain control of the three major blazes burning near the city. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph--were recorded at several mountain locations Friday and Saturday, thanks to the major difference in pressure between a strong high pressure system to the northeast of Los Angeles and lower pressure air over the ocean. By 4 pm PST Sunday, though, winds had fallen below 15 mph over the entire region (Figure 1), and a weak sea breeze had formed near the coast. Taking a look at this morning's wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, we can see that winds are below 5 mph over the region. All high wind warnings and fire weather warnings have been canceled for California, but continued hot and dry conditions will slow down efforts of fire fighters to control the fires. The smoke has caused pollution problems in the city, and the Air Quality Index (AQI) for particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) exceeded the EPA standard yesterday. Today's pollution forecast calls for PM2.5 levels in the unhealthy for sensitive groups level, in excess of the EPA standards.


Figure 1. Wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, California, at 4 pm EST Sunday November 16, 2008. Two major fires, the Sylmar fire to the north, and the Freeway fire to the east, are shown. The black colors show the relative concentration of smoke. The colored circles show the temperature, and the lines going into the circles show the direction the wind is blowing from. The perpendicular lines at the the end of these lines show how strong the wind is blowing. Each longer line is an additional 10 mph, and each shorter perpendicular line is an additional 5 mph. Thus, for the circle at upper right with a 66° temperature, the wind was blowing 15 mph out of the NNE. (Note that we've changed the convention used on marine maps, where these so-called "wind barbs" denote the winds in knots, not mph).

High temperature records
The hot flow of air off the desert set numerous high temperature records across Southern California on Sunday. Records set or tied included 88° in downtown Los Angeles, 93° in Camalillo; 86° at LAX airport; 90° at Long Beach; 89° at Paso Robles; 87° at Santa Maria; 91° at Woodland Hills; 87° at UCLA; 93° at Oxnard; and 87° at Santa Barbara. On Saturday, 30 high temperature records were set or tied across the state of California, including a blistering 93° in downtown Los Angeles (old record, 90° in 1936). The hottest new record was 94° at the Santa Ana Fire Station.

The forecast
Hot and dry conditions will persist over Los Angeles today, then gradually cool Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, winds should reverse and blow cool, moist air from the oceans over the city, allowing fire fighters to gain full control of the fires. By Saturday, the GFS model is indicating a possible return to Santa Ana wind conditions for the weekend, but the ECMWF model disagrees. At this point, it appears we may get a weak Santa Ana wind event this weekend, but nowhere near as strong as the one that just ended.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Sunday, November 16, 2008 at 11:30 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands, joined by a larger plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
The Portlight.org charity is sponsoring a new nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of their ongoing efforts, specifically to provide Christmas presents (and maybe a big party) for kids and families in the Gulf Coast areas devastated by Hurricane Ike. They need 100 people across the country to commit to walking one mile this Saturday, November 22, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where they want to walk--the local park, the mall, anywhere. Please support this worthwhile effort!

Jeff Masters

Sayre fire (anvilhead)
Sayre fire
Sayre Fire (anvilhead)
Sayre Fire

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WPB they are saying for Broward that we will see with windchill combined a low tomorrow morning of 30
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Vortex95: If it ain't hurricane season in South FL, it's fire season. Expect fire conditions until, say, June.

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Had the Vidtek Taped and centered to the Bottom of the Meade 4.5 reflector and Teresa Manually kept the ISS in the crosshairs with the slow motion controls,while I used the binocularcam.
Both Downloading now as the previews were decent.

The Better chip in the Vidtek, in the YouTube shows some gold pixels at Highest Point or closet approach to our ground based obs here tonight.



The Binocular cam is the Photobucket mpeg.

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I probably missed it
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Woo hoo....
Bright shiney object just went by.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
Quoting severstorm:
evening all did you all see the space station that thing was hauling tail great view 53 in zephyrhills fl

I just walked back up from the beach. It literally flew right over us here in Destin, in the panhandle. It was hauling tail. Thanks to Patrap for the Heavens Above graph!
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evening all did you all see the space station that thing was hauling tail great view 53 in zephyrhills fl
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Today it snowed in N VA in Mid November that is a first for me.
I think cyclone 2 will fizzle the WU map thingy shows it reaching 50mph then weakening to 40moh in three days
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Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
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next cold snap (for us native's in West Palm) appears to be one week from this Friday with a low of 49.
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I believe one area in West Virginia got 14inches.
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Ike,
Are you still watching the GFS?
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First snow at my house last night into this morning.A light dusting covered the cars,roofs and some grassy areas.I live in north-west N.C around 1500F.T.

1-3inches of snow fell above 2500F.T in N.C closing schools today.It has snowed several times up there this season and more snow is forcasted Thursday night into Friday.

Forcasted Lows for the mountains= 11 (3000ft
Forcasted Low for my house= 20 (1000ft

Weatherunderground does not forcast the weather for the highest mountains in N.C due to needed, new written software.(6,000ft)

I hope this is a sign for a snowy winter.When will Dr.Masters show us the winter forcast?
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Quoting Cotillion:


Hehe, referring to my comment about fishing further up. :P


Saw that, just kidding...Back in a while.
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Quoting RobDaHood:


Wow, Cotillion, what did you do to rate that? One of the very nicest people here wants to put you up a tree...huh.



Hehe, referring to my comment about fishing further up. :P
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting surfmom:
Cotillion - we'd throw a cast net over you and hang you up from a tree...LOL


Wow, Cotillion, what did you do to rate that? One of the very nicest people here wants to put you up a tree...huh.

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334 cot
I had some ideas for you in the cast net, but pottery says we can't talk about fishing unless he's online. It involved trolling offshore.
lol
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
Gorgeous SWFL day -- strong sun w/cool air made the ride a delight today -- no bugs either. We did have much wind either.

Off to kitchen back later 2nite
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Quoting surfmom:
Cotillion - we'd throw a cast net over you and hang you up from a tree...LOL


As long as I got a nice view. ;)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Cotillion - we'd throw a cast net over you and hang you up from a tree...LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I was just looking at the damage total's in Cuba alone from Hurricane Paloma, its already in the Billions. In the Cayman's, I imagine a billion more in Damages. Paloma will most likely be retired.


Guess we'll see. Wouldn't surprise me to see one of the billion dollar hurricanes not retired this year though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
I was just looking at the damage total's in Cuba alone from Hurricane Paloma, its already in the Billions. In the Cayman's, I imagine a billion more in Damages. Paloma will most likely be retired.
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330. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
6:00 AM WDT November 19 2008
=============================================

At 21:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category One (996 hPa) located at 10.5S 95.5E or 240 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-southeast at 12 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Anika has formed to the northwest of the Cocos Islands and is expected to maintain an east to southeast movement over the next few days. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop over the Cocos Islands today as the tropical cyclone passes to the north of the Islands.

Forecast and Intensity (from BGM)
=====================
12 HRS: 11.3S 97.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 12.3S 99.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.

Cyclone Advice #5 from BOM
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45206
Lake Mary, FL.
Conditions: Sunny(blue skies)
Temperature: 59.5F
Humidity: 19%
Dewpoint: 17F(and slowly dropping)
Winds: NNW 6.3 MPH
Gusts: 10.1 MPH
Pressure: 30.09(and rising)
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1285
Lake City, Fl/ 50F @ 28% no wind,clear as a bell
Excellant shuttle watching weather.
Mid 20's early AM...that ain't good
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
Dew point 31 degrees
Humidity 23%
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Quoting pottery:
Back in, for a short.
Cotillion,no self respecting fisherman is going to chase you down the street with a pitchfork. A teaser, maybe.
But the truth is, we dont really want any more folks fishing ! There are too few fish around as it is.
Good to see you....


Well, I shall abstain from fishing so one of you can. My present. :P

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting pottery:

But the truth is, we dont really want any more folks fishing ! There are too few fish around as it is.


One of the reasons I don't fish any more. Growing up I went all the time (salt water). Always came home with a meal. Was relaxing and fun. Now, between the lack of fish, regulations, (size limits/seasons, etc. {which I understand the reasons for btw and actually agree with}), lack of access to good spots that aren't crowded (no beach driving allowed now), and really needing a boat to get to the good spots, it has become too much like work. So I get my local fish from local restaurants now. Wife seems to like this better anyway, house never smells like fish now. :)
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Back in, for a short.
Cotillion,no self respecting fisherman is going to chase you down the street with a pitchfork. A teaser, maybe.
But the truth is, we dont really want any more folks fishing ! There are too few fish around as it is.
Good to see you....
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Quoting weathers4me:
Will the space station be visible tonight from Bradenton FL?


Looks like it. Off to your west for about 6 minutes starting about 6:51 pm.
Pass Details
Date: Tuesday, 18 November, 2008
Satellite: ISS
Observer's Location: Bradenton ( 27.4870N, 82.5753W)
Local Time: Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5:00)
Orbit: 349 x 354 km, 51.6 (Epoch 17 Nov)
Sun altitude at time of
maximum pass altitude: -17.5

Event Time Altitude Azimuth Distance (km)
Rises above horizon 18:51:31 -0 240 (WSW) 2,138
Reaches 10 altitude 18:53:39 10 252 (WSW) 1,303
Maximum altitude 18:56:16 30 316 (NW ) 657
Enters shadow 18:57:17 23 354 (N ) 790

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Quoting Cotillion:
Pottery, if I say "I do not understand the point of fishing," will I be branded a heretic and chased down the street by an angry mob wielding pitchforks...?
That is so funny Cotillion!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
windchills are going to be in the teens tonight for us up here in new england
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15700
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING BELOW 35% FOR OVER 4 HOURS...

AREAS ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE ALREADY BEEN AT OR BELOW 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR AROUND 4 HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN RISE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THIS WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 35% FOR 6 TO 7 HOURS, THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW... OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

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Quoting NEwxguy:


In a society,where the answer to every thing that goes wrong is to sue,a warning lable is required on everything that is sold,sad isn't it?


Yes, quite.

Got a new blog, first in a while. Interesting to hear what some of you think will happen in 2009.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Will the space station be visible tonight from Bradenton FL?
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Forecast to get down to 45 tonight with that cold front moving through.
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Quoting Cotillion:
With all the crisis in the world, and debates about fishing techniques, a sobering discovery.

Dairy Milk 'Whole Nut' issues the following advisory on its wrapper, to be read prior to consumption.

'Contains nuts.'

...I should hope so!


In a society,where the answer to every thing that goes wrong is to sue,a warning lable is required on everything that is sold,sad isn't it?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15700
Fantastic 73 here in West Palm Beach...Low tomorrow a.m. forcast at 50...high 69.
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Just thought everyone would like to know it's D@Mn cold outside in NC. It's even snowing across the state from mountains to the coast. Sadly it's just flurries.
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ISS with shuttle docked, pass over NOLA and the Southeast USA tonight.
Ground Track Graphic Link

Rises above horizon CST 17:50:39 from the SW

Enters shadow CST 17:57:17 from the NE


Sightings Specific info:Link

Pass Details
Date: Tuesday, 18 November, 2008
Satellite: ISS
Observer's Location: New Orleans ( 29.9540N, 90.0750W)
Local Time: Central Standard Time (GMT - 6:00)
Orbit: 349 x 354 km, 51.6 (Epoch 17 Nov)
Sun altitude at time of
maximum pass altitude: -11.6
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Called away, BBL
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Pottery, if I say "I do not understand the point of fishing," will I be branded a heretic and chased down the street by an angry mob wielding pitchforks...?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Hello all.
First thing, you guys are NOT allowed to talk fishing when I am not here.
Secondly, 2.25" in 45 mins an hour ago. Bucket-a-drop man.......
Thirdly, come here in Feb-April for Wahoo. We fish with bally or large flying fish, from the surface to 60 ft. down depending on conditions. Biggest I have landed is 87 lbs. National record, 106 lb!
You know you have your work planned for you, when you strike a wahoo over 75 lbs. We fish stand-up, and I lost one last yeah after more than an hour, on 30 lb line, that made me cry. We saw the fish for a minute, and it looked 7 ft !!
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304. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Indonesia Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning
1:00 AM WIB November 19 2008
====================================

At 18:00 UTC Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 10.2S 94.4E or 1120 kms southwest of Bengkulu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.3S 97.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 12.3S 99.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings (BOM)
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.

The depression may develop into a tropical cyclone today (Wednesday) as it passes to the north of the Cocos Islands. Gales with wind gusts to 100 km/h could develop over the Cocos Islands during the day.

Cyclone Advice #4 from BOM
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45206
With all the crisis in the world, and debates about fishing techniques, a sobering discovery.

Dairy Milk 'Whole Nut' issues the following advisory on its wrapper, to be read prior to consumption.

'Contains nuts.'

...I should hope so!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
The entire country is amazingly dry,except for the lake effect precip,I have a feeling next week especially toward Thanksgiving things are going to change
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15700

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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