Santa Ana winds ease over Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on November 17, 2008

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The Santa Ana winds have died down over Los Angeles, and winds should remain below 25 mph today through Thursday over the region. This should allow fire fighters to gain control of the three major blazes burning near the city. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph--were recorded at several mountain locations Friday and Saturday, thanks to the major difference in pressure between a strong high pressure system to the northeast of Los Angeles and lower pressure air over the ocean. By 4 pm PST Sunday, though, winds had fallen below 15 mph over the entire region (Figure 1), and a weak sea breeze had formed near the coast. Taking a look at this morning's wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, we can see that winds are below 5 mph over the region. All high wind warnings and fire weather warnings have been canceled for California, but continued hot and dry conditions will slow down efforts of fire fighters to control the fires. The smoke has caused pollution problems in the city, and the Air Quality Index (AQI) for particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) exceeded the EPA standard yesterday. Today's pollution forecast calls for PM2.5 levels in the unhealthy for sensitive groups level, in excess of the EPA standards.


Figure 1. Wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, California, at 4 pm EST Sunday November 16, 2008. Two major fires, the Sylmar fire to the north, and the Freeway fire to the east, are shown. The black colors show the relative concentration of smoke. The colored circles show the temperature, and the lines going into the circles show the direction the wind is blowing from. The perpendicular lines at the the end of these lines show how strong the wind is blowing. Each longer line is an additional 10 mph, and each shorter perpendicular line is an additional 5 mph. Thus, for the circle at upper right with a 66° temperature, the wind was blowing 15 mph out of the NNE. (Note that we've changed the convention used on marine maps, where these so-called "wind barbs" denote the winds in knots, not mph).

High temperature records
The hot flow of air off the desert set numerous high temperature records across Southern California on Sunday. Records set or tied included 88° in downtown Los Angeles, 93° in Camalillo; 86° at LAX airport; 90° at Long Beach; 89° at Paso Robles; 87° at Santa Maria; 91° at Woodland Hills; 87° at UCLA; 93° at Oxnard; and 87° at Santa Barbara. On Saturday, 30 high temperature records were set or tied across the state of California, including a blistering 93° in downtown Los Angeles (old record, 90° in 1936). The hottest new record was 94° at the Santa Ana Fire Station.

The forecast
Hot and dry conditions will persist over Los Angeles today, then gradually cool Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, winds should reverse and blow cool, moist air from the oceans over the city, allowing fire fighters to gain full control of the fires. By Saturday, the GFS model is indicating a possible return to Santa Ana wind conditions for the weekend, but the ECMWF model disagrees. At this point, it appears we may get a weak Santa Ana wind event this weekend, but nowhere near as strong as the one that just ended.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Sunday, November 16, 2008 at 11:30 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands, joined by a larger plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
The Portlight.org charity is sponsoring a new nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of their ongoing efforts, specifically to provide Christmas presents (and maybe a big party) for kids and families in the Gulf Coast areas devastated by Hurricane Ike. They need 100 people across the country to commit to walking one mile this Saturday, November 22, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where they want to walk--the local park, the mall, anywhere. Please support this worthwhile effort!

Jeff Masters

Sayre fire (anvilhead)
Sayre fire
Sayre Fire (anvilhead)
Sayre Fire

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pottery...yea....they asked us to give the keynote....gonna shake 'em down for some $$$$$$$$$$
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Please Astro. We do not want to see that horrible apparition ever again........
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Astro....check the archives just before Halloween....you're in for a real treat....
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You mean I can express myself???? Honestly......heh, heh, heh ( I learned heh, heh from Pottery )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Not to be creepish, but did they ever post the picture of press in a dress? I never saw it.


If you are sure you want to...Link
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Press, 393
By invitation from them ?
Well done man. Make some waves.....
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Presslord -- well I was just getting ready to sign off and there you be!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting pottery:
We are all waiting on your response to Press, Mom......

Not to be creepish, but did they ever post the picture of press in a dress? I never saw it.
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yea surfmom.....speak up....
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Greetings all.....stormjunkie and i are travelling to Atlanta tomorrow to make a presentation about our Ike efforts to a coalition of federal and state agencies....you can follow us by webcam at stormjunkie.com
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ISS Photos Taken From the Ground Link

Sharp Silhouette Link
Credit & Copyright: Thierry Legault

Explanation: Though it's 93 million miles away, the Sun still hurts your eyes when you look at it. But bright sunlight (along with accurate planning and proper equipment!) resulted in this sharp silhouette of spaceship and space station. The amazing telescopic view, recorded on September 17, captures shuttle orbiter Atlantis and the International Space Station in orbit over planet Earth. At a range of 550 kilometers from the observing site near Mamers, Normandy, France, Atlantis (left) has just undocked and moved about 200 meters away from the space station.
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We are all waiting on your response to Press, Mom......
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Quoting sugarsand:
LOL! I've always been a space nut. I get up in the middle of the night to watch the different meteor showers. Nerd....I've been called worse!

I've only ever seen a few meteors, including a Picid, a Perseid, and a Taurid.
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'Evenin' Press...long-time no-see.
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Yeah Hood. Not sure I like her tone there !
But I sure did open the gate for that one.........
LMAO Mom
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I live in S. Ontario, we just got a surprise snowstorm last night, over 2 inches. We could get more tomorrow and Thursday, but this has been the heaviest snowfall so far this fall at my location.
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surfmom...I'm cold....What're you gonna do about it?!
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383. pottery

Hehe...surfmom's in fine form tonight...those waves must have done her good...First she's gonna put Cotillion in a cast net and hang him from a tree, then she goes gunnin' for you...been a little afraid to stick my head out!
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Quoting pottery:
LOL you freaks. And I'm contagious too.........


hee, hee -heh,heh,heh.... the things I want to say
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
LOL you freaks. And I'm contagious too.........
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
24-hour christmas music on the radio now...what is your favorite xmas song?<


I am a weird one -- can't think of any song I really like.... there was one by Sting -- it was an old english one with the angel Gabriel mentioned.... otherwise I'm bad --find it reminds me of the cold, the north and my past... did the song stuff for the kids when they were little, but I'm ok with out it (see I am a closet grinch... ahh the truths that come out here)
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting theshepherd:
378 mom
Dengue fever & pottery.
Isn't pottery that thingy you get with the little red bumps around your belt line ???
Too funny -- LOL -- hummmmmm looks like a case of pottery
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
378 mom
Dengue fever & pottery.
Isn't pottery that thingy you get with the little red bumps around your belt line ???
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
I really do wish I could tolerate the cold better. I do run much faster -- but the bones and muscle ache a lot more & I do get more injuries when it's cold. In the heat --- I am just far more supple & happy....but enough of my whine -- I think I'm in for it this year... and no $ to escape to a warm carib. hideaway....although it could be far worse...... living up north -- that would be torture
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
I should move to a lovely island where no surfer has to wear a wetsuit.... the one I like lately though has bouts of dengue, centipedes & scorpions...... & Pottery......LOL
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Quoting surfmom:
68 degrees is freezing according to my body -- will admit the afternoon was beautiful -- but only because the Sun is still strong enough to warm things up... but the cool doesn't fool my bones.... I do not enjoy feeling creaky


Hey, surfmom. Glad to see I'm not the only one that's bothered by 68F temperatures. :)

Don't get me wrong, I want it to get cold this year, for the simple fact that it seems like winter the colder it gets. But that doesn't necessarily mean I'll enjoy the cold.

I'm so used to warm weather, that I consider almost anything chilly. :)

I should move to Puerto Rico, I guess.
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Geoffrey - warm Cocoa/coffee for evening & morning, Yerba Mate for the day
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
68 degrees is freezing according to my body -- will admit the afternoon was beautiful -- but only because the Sun is still strong enough to warm things up... but the cool doesn't fool my bones.... I do not enjoy feeling creaky
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Warm Cocoa warning in effect for a lot of folks in the U.S. :)
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373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
150. HadesGodWyvern 1:00 AM GMT on November 19, 2008
Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
9:50 AM WDT November 19 2008
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category One (995 hPa) located at 10.3S 96.4E or 215 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 16 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Anika has formed to the north of the Cocos Islands and is expected to maintain an east to southeast movement over the next few days. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop over the Cocos Islands today as the tropical cyclone passes to the north of the Islands.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.0S 099.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 12.0S 101.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.1S 104.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 15.2S 109.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.
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Quoting sugarsand:
We watched it right at the Gulf's edge. my son and I saw it at the same time racing up from the SW. It was really bright and clear, easy to see. That's a nice website, btw.


And I was frozen when I got back to the house. Thank goodness for the gas logs.
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24-hour christmas music on the radio now...what is your favorite xmas song?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Wife says I'm a nerd. :) Almost hurt myself watching it go overhead. Reminded me of early space race days when we used to watch satellite's overhead when they were all silver. Figured we would all be taking vacations to the moon by now. ;) Once a space nut ...

p.s. they lowered our low to 30 for tonight now from 35 #%*&^@%!
LOL! I've always been a space nut. I get up in the middle of the night to watch the different meteor showers. Nerd....I've been called worse!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Reminded me of early space race days when we used to watch satellite's overhead when they were all silver.

My grandparents listened to the first crystal radio sets and drove a Model T Ford from Kansas City to the Colorado mountains for a camping trip. They and their friends got up very early in the morning and had coffee while watching television news every time someone went up into space. It boggles the mind.
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Quoting Patrap:
Heavens-Above Home Page Link
We watched it right at the Gulf's edge. my son and I saw it at the same time racing up from the SW. It was really bright and clear, easy to see. That's a nice website, btw.
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We were on inside restriction today because of the fine particles in the air, but received an email at the end of they day that said the air quality in our area is now fine! Yeah! Kids can go outside tomorrow!!!
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outside my door down one more degree its 25 wind chill 14 brrr is not the word
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Heavens-Above Home Page Link
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Severe Clear and Cold here tonight for the ISS pass.

Another Good one Occurs Thursday the 20th.

Ground Track for that pass is a lil earlier.Link

The Pass was Much Brighter than the Video shows.
A good -2.3 Mag or Brigther to a -2.0 overhead at least.
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Quoting sugarsand:

I just walked back up from the beach. It literally flew right over us here in Destin, in the panhandle. It was hauling tail. Thanks to Patrap for the Heavens Above graph!


Wife says I'm a nerd. :) Almost hurt myself watching it go overhead. Reminded me of early space race days when we used to watch satellite's overhead when they were all silver. Figured we would all be taking vacations to the moon by now. ;) Once a space nut ...

p.s. they lowered our low to 30 for tonight now from 35 #%*&^@%!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak, thats from the National Weather Svc and mind you I am in western Broward.


THE QUESTION IS, HOW STRONG ARE
THE WINDS GOING TO BE OVER LAND TONIGHT AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THEY
HAVE ON THE WIND CHILL VALUES? AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
AVAILABLE MODELS, MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AND DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR OVER INTERIOR AREAS PREVENTING
THE WIND CHILL VALUES FROM FALLING TOO LOW.
STILL, 3 TO 4 HOURS
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 35 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR GLADES
COUNTY MEETING A WIND CHILL ADV CRITERIA, BUT THE REST OF S. FL WL
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA, EITHER BECAUSE OF HIGHER TEMPS, LIGHTER
WINDS OR SHORTER DURATION. THE ERN METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM LOWER 40S PALM BEACH...UPPER 40S
BROWARD AND MID 40S MIAMI-DADE.
OVER THE WEST COAST WIND CHILL
COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT COULD BE EXPERIENCED
WED NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING THE MAIN FACTOR. CHANCES
OF PRECIP WL REMAIN NIL DURING THIS PERIOD
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Pottery,
as you know... 68 degrees is considered freezing in da Islan's
CRS
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350 Patrap
Thanks.
Did you have a slight haze.
Over Lake City,Fl I was fortunate to have a stary background and the ISS was much brighter.
Looked like a jet with landing light on.
lol
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
LOL CRS. post 353
Probably him, himself. He has been complaining about his conditions recently. No reason to inflict you with that though. Bad Sport that......
Its just not on.
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patrap, basically it means button up and open your windows. use natural a/c
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Drak, thats from the National Weather Svc and mind you I am in western Broward.
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Hard Freeze Warning, Freeze Watch

Suwannee, Florida Link
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i'm looking at msm weather..they just lowered our high (west palm) tomorrow to 66.
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I don't think Broward will get windchill values that low. Probably wind chill values making it feel like the lower 40s.
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Good evening,

ahem... has anyone seen that jolly Orca fellow...
I wish to inquire if he knows who left that big door open up there... northeast wind gusting to 24 mph, and with the "wind chill" it's getting down close to 70 already brrr...
;})
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WPB they are saying for Broward that we will see with windchill combined a low tomorrow morning of 30
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.