Santa Ana winds ease over Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on November 17, 2008

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The Santa Ana winds have died down over Los Angeles, and winds should remain below 25 mph today through Thursday over the region. This should allow fire fighters to gain control of the three major blazes burning near the city. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph--were recorded at several mountain locations Friday and Saturday, thanks to the major difference in pressure between a strong high pressure system to the northeast of Los Angeles and lower pressure air over the ocean. By 4 pm PST Sunday, though, winds had fallen below 15 mph over the entire region (Figure 1), and a weak sea breeze had formed near the coast. Taking a look at this morning's wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, we can see that winds are below 5 mph over the region. All high wind warnings and fire weather warnings have been canceled for California, but continued hot and dry conditions will slow down efforts of fire fighters to control the fires. The smoke has caused pollution problems in the city, and the Air Quality Index (AQI) for particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) exceeded the EPA standard yesterday. Today's pollution forecast calls for PM2.5 levels in the unhealthy for sensitive groups level, in excess of the EPA standards.


Figure 1. Wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, California, at 4 pm EST Sunday November 16, 2008. Two major fires, the Sylmar fire to the north, and the Freeway fire to the east, are shown. The black colors show the relative concentration of smoke. The colored circles show the temperature, and the lines going into the circles show the direction the wind is blowing from. The perpendicular lines at the the end of these lines show how strong the wind is blowing. Each longer line is an additional 10 mph, and each shorter perpendicular line is an additional 5 mph. Thus, for the circle at upper right with a 66° temperature, the wind was blowing 15 mph out of the NNE. (Note that we've changed the convention used on marine maps, where these so-called "wind barbs" denote the winds in knots, not mph).

High temperature records
The hot flow of air off the desert set numerous high temperature records across Southern California on Sunday. Records set or tied included 88° in downtown Los Angeles, 93° in Camalillo; 86° at LAX airport; 90° at Long Beach; 89° at Paso Robles; 87° at Santa Maria; 91° at Woodland Hills; 87° at UCLA; 93° at Oxnard; and 87° at Santa Barbara. On Saturday, 30 high temperature records were set or tied across the state of California, including a blistering 93° in downtown Los Angeles (old record, 90° in 1936). The hottest new record was 94° at the Santa Ana Fire Station.

The forecast
Hot and dry conditions will persist over Los Angeles today, then gradually cool Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, winds should reverse and blow cool, moist air from the oceans over the city, allowing fire fighters to gain full control of the fires. By Saturday, the GFS model is indicating a possible return to Santa Ana wind conditions for the weekend, but the ECMWF model disagrees. At this point, it appears we may get a weak Santa Ana wind event this weekend, but nowhere near as strong as the one that just ended.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Sunday, November 16, 2008 at 11:30 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands, joined by a larger plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
The Portlight.org charity is sponsoring a new nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of their ongoing efforts, specifically to provide Christmas presents (and maybe a big party) for kids and families in the Gulf Coast areas devastated by Hurricane Ike. They need 100 people across the country to commit to walking one mile this Saturday, November 22, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where they want to walk--the local park, the mall, anywhere. Please support this worthwhile effort!

Jeff Masters

Sayre fire (anvilhead)
Sayre fire
Sayre Fire (anvilhead)
Sayre Fire

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Quoting RobDaHood:
94. Drakoen

Thanks Drak, works for me, if we don't get below about 42 but hit 70's for highs, by heat and AC both stay off. Love that after the big bills in JUL/Aug/Sept.


I hear ya Rob. Just got my first under $100 bill for elec. Let winter begin!!
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings again.
How you going, Cotillion ? Long time no chat.

Heavy rain here an hour ago, gone west. Lights in the sky over Venezuela.
Expecting showers through the night, into tomorrow, as Rob picked up on earlier.
Whats up Hood ?


I'm doing pretty good. Things are ticking along fine, and the weather isn't as chilling as some of the East Coast dwellers seem to be experiencing.

And yourself?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting TampaSpin:
Next Monday i start decorating for Christmas around the house......can't wait as i always try to have everything up by Thanksgiving....I never turn anything on until Thanksgiving Nite tho.....it was always alot of fun when the kids was real small .........but, im still a kid at heart....lol


I usually do the same thing although this year I won't be back until Sunday the 30th. Just checked the temps for next week up there...high's mid 30's low's mid 20's. This FL girl's gonna be a popsicle!
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Hey, Pottery!

Been one exhausting 24hrs, but gotta love having the work! (ughhh phone just rang again)

Missed out on all the discussion last night.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
Next Monday i start decorating for Christmas around the house......can't wait as i always try to have everything up by Thanksgiving....I never turn anything on until Thanksgiving Nite tho.....it was always alot of fun when the kids was real small .........but, im still a kid at heart....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
94. Drakoen

Thanks Drak, works for me, if we don't get below about 42 but hit 70's for highs, by heat and AC both stay off. Love that after the big bills in JUL/Aug/Sept.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
More snow for North Carolina.(Not just the mountains)

Winter weather advisory for 1-3inches for elevations above 3000F.T.

Lower elevations down to or below 1000f.t may see light snow showers and flurries with temperatures below freezing.

A strong upper level disturbance could bring flurries tonight into tomarow afternoon in the low elevations.However, it is very dry near the surface so it will be limited.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


I hear that! There are certain things that cold weather is associated with and Football is definitely one of them. I gotta say when I stepped out to go to work at 6 am today though I was not a happy camper. Something tells me this week is going to be challenging. Of course next week is going to down right unbearable for me, LOL! Let's hope they get a nice warm up before I arrive!


Check out my blog site for next week....you might not like it too much....sorry..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting RobDaHood:
89. Drakoen

My forecast - Highlands County, for Friday.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.


IMO - Now that's a perfect day!


Should be 40s and 50s for overnight lows for most of Florida through out the week. Northern Florida getting in on some 30s perhaps.
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Greetings again.
How you going, Cotillion ? Long time no chat.

Heavy rain here an hour ago, gone west. Lights in the sky over Venezuela.
Expecting showers through the night, into tomorrow, as Rob picked up on earlier.
Whats up Hood ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
89. Drakoen

My forecast - Highlands County, for Friday.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.


IMO - Now that's a perfect day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
Quoting TampaSpin:


I love it.......from Indiana! Been in Florida 24 years now!

Went to the Bucs game yesterday and it actully felt like Football weather.....nice to pull out cool weather gear for a game for a change..lol


I hear that! There are certain things that cold weather is associated with and Football is definitely one of them. I gotta say when I stepped out to go to work at 6 am today though I was not a happy camper. Something tells me this week is going to be challenging. Of course next week is going to down right unbearable for me, LOL! Let's hope they get a nice warm up before I arrive!
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Quoting CapeObserver:
Evening Tampa! Cool enough for ya?


I love it.......from Indiana! Been in Florida 24 years now!

Went to the Bucs game yesterday and it actully felt like Football weather.....nice to pull out cool weather gear for a game for a change..lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
The ECMWF and GGEM look the strongest for the cold air next week. The GFS is delaying the cyclogenesis and showing a bit more warmer temperatures. Even if the ECMWF and GGEM scenarios play out it looks like it won't have a significant effect in Florida but keep the temperatures at or just below normal.

I'll be up north for thanksgiving. Hopefully the ECMWF and GGEM solutions have some truth to them. In need for a good change.
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Good evening!
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Evening Tampa! Cool enough for ya?
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting NEwxguy:


Clam chowder I can do,won't find too many Philly cheesesteaks in Boston


Oh I miss good clam chowda. Can't seem to find anything decent down here.
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Good evening everyone...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Ike 64.

All things being equal....I'm liking that graphic for the upper midwest next week!
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Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL - Yeah, won't see me in MI this time of year...Have some family east of Traverse City, their lakes are just making it snow a lot this week. Stay warm!

we're supposed to get 2 in of snow on the ground between yesterday, last night, today, tonight, and tomorrow.
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Evening everyone! Chilly day today here in SW FL. Been crazy busy trying to get everything done in preparation to my trip next week to WI. Guess this cold weather here is my breaking in for what's to come.
How's everyone been? Haven't been on in a few days.
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80. IKE
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Did you guys know that Paloma actually did hit Fl? About near where Ike lives. Check out this sat loop. Pretty cool
Link


I remember when that slug of moisture moved in here. Kind of figured it was part of Paloma.
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Might get fun in Northern Scotland later this week.

Advisory called for severe gales, and blizzard like conditions.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting stormpetrol:

Wondering the same thing myself, That's where Paloma was born, might be worth watching though conditions appear hostile for now.


Looks like stationary frontal boundary from eastern Cuba SW to Nicaragua. Your are right, those are the things we watch this time of year. Not scary yet but watching just the same.

Pottery, lots of convection over S America blowin up your way...you gonna get wetter...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon.
Continuous heavy thunder to my south right now. I may even get some more rain this evening.
What up with that cloudmass in the southwest Caribbean Sea??

Wondering the same thing myself, That's where Paloma was born, might be worth watching though conditions appear hostile for now.
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Quoting hurristat:


Florida ice cubes, however. LOL


LOL - Yeah, won't see me in MI this time of year...Have some family east of Traverse City, their lakes are just making it snow a lot this week. Stay warm!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hey peoples!

Been so busy only had time for that one post early this morning before catching a couple hours of zzzs and going at it again. Feast or famine around here, so gotta git it when ya can!

MissNadia Saw your post scanning the last blog LOL. Yeah, nice warm air pocket. We got lucky and the winds died down enough that the lakes around here kept us a little warmer. Works this time of year, not so much in February. And if the fronts come through late in the day and the winds are still howling, well, not much between the lake and all that glass on the west side of my house. Glass gets like ice cubes.

36. Seastep Thanks for remembering me!

Still playing catch up and belly is grumbling, so I'll be back later tonight. (I hope)


Florida ice cubes, however. LOL
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Hey peoples!

Been so busy only had time for that one post early this morning before catching a couple hours of zzzs and going at it again. Feast or famine around here, so gotta git it when ya can!

MissNadia Saw your post scanning the last blog LOL. Yeah, nice warm air pocket. We got lucky and the winds died down enough that the lakes around here kept us a little warmer. Works this time of year, not so much in February. And if the fronts come through late in the day and the winds are still howling, well, not much between the lake and all that glass on the west side of my house. Glass gets like ice cubes.

36. Seastep Thanks for remembering me!

Still playing catch up and belly is grumbling, so I'll be back later tonight. (I hope)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33630
72. DDR
Hey pottery,alot of rain in tunapuna as i type this,the small river in my backyard is now a ragging torrent.
BBL
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Quoting zomba:
Sorry this is slightly off topic. Could someone point me to an online source that would have a weather report for a specific day in 1955?

Thanks!
carey


I would suggest narrowing it down for the day and location.

Newspapers might be a good bet, a lot have weather pages.

I know of a database that looks through newspapers from a good deal of time, though if it's American, especially local, I may have a bit of trouble.

Hit me up with a mail if you want me to have a look. Can't promise anything though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Did you guys know that Paloma actually did hit Fl? About near where Ike lives. Check out this sat loop. Pretty cool
Link
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Quoting zomba:
Sorry this is slightly off topic. Could someone point me to an online source that would have a weather report for a specific day in 1955?

Thanks!
carey


Slightly off topic. LOL.

Just kidding. I have no idea. we respect all questions on this blog.
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Sorry this is slightly off topic. Could someone point me to an online source that would have a weather report for a specific day in 1955?

Thanks!
carey
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It is cold in VA we might be seeing snow tomorrow night to Wednesday morning if trends with cyclone apply to local weather then we are getting snow
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isnt the fire season in the west going to end soon?
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Quoting stillwaiting:
thanks doc!!!,enjoy your snow showers yesterday????


and today, and tonight, and tomorrow. We're supposed to end up with about 3/2 - 2 inches of snow
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64. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook....

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63. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:
A few models forecast an even stronger surge of arctic air over the east for next week. Even most of Florida will be much below average(according to those runs).



Look at this for tomorrow night....

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
COAST...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
180900-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.A.0003.081119T0900Z-081119T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...
MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...
PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
303 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 /203 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008/

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
COAST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
COAST.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SET
THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST AREAS. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE FREEZE
DURATIONS OF APPROXIMATELY NINE HOURS. DOWNTOWN AREAS IN
TALLAHASSEE AND DOTHAN WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH BRIEFER FREEZE DURATIONS OF JUST A FEW HOURS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL SIMILARLY NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE WITH THE MERCURY DIPPING TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN 26
DEGREES FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS
AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

18-WOOL
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already I have 1-2 inches of snow on the ground
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Polar bears aside,

So many things and so much so quickly vaporized.
~Actor Christopher Lloyd in GMA interview

Montecito
Lloyd's $11 million home

A mobile home park, Sylmar
L.A Times columnist, Steve Lopez

Yorba Linda, Brea... and more
O.C. fire
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Overcast

45°F
(7°C) Humidity: 39 %
Wind Speed: NW 5 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1014.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 21°F (-6°C)
Wind Chill: 43°F (6°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

And this is the warm day of the week.Brrrrrr!!!!
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Link

A saddening report about the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Mitch.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon.
Continuous heavy thunder to my south right now. I may even get some more rain this evening.
What up with that cloudmass in the southwest Caribbean Sea??


Afternoon Pottery. How're things?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Good afternoon.
Continuous heavy thunder to my south right now. I may even get some more rain this evening.
What up with that cloudmass in the southwest Caribbean Sea??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
A few models forecast an even stronger surge of arctic air over the east for next week. Even most of Florida will be much below average(according to those runs).
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I think this is have another Alcohlic beverage Monday...


As long as it's not an American beer. You guys can make some good food (Had Gumbo for the first time the other day, as well as Jambalaya; and while I had it on good authority it was nowhere near as good as the local stuff, it was still good. Pulled pork is the yum too. Though some other things... Stick with the "Canadian bacon". ;)), your beer is atrocious. :(

Nearly as bad as Fosters. And that's saying something.

And on the weather, clear as a whistle. Apparently still some MJO pulse albeit very weak around, but that should go within the week. According to that same forecast, seems it'll be unfavourable until late December. With this season's reliance on the pulse, we *may* have finally seen the back of it.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Mid to upper 30's both Tuesday and Wednesday nights for Sanford, FL. Yet I feel it too dry for frost. Despite calm winds.
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I think this is have another Alcohlic beverage Monday...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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