Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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381. TampaSpin
3:04 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
380. RTLSNK
2:25 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
We had friends that used to live in Laguna Beach, Ca and we went out there to visit one summer. We were sitting at the breakfast table one morning when all the dishes and glasses in the house started to make noise, my wife and I held on to the table while our friends got big grins on their faces and said "don't panic, its just a little trembler", it happens all the time! My wife looked at me at almost the same instant and we both said We are out of here!!!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20622
379. MissNadia
2:21 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
378. TampaSpin
2:11 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Bonedog i have had my concern along the West coast for some time now from lack of activity. Where pressure is released in one place creates tension and pressure somewhere else......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
377. Bonedog
2:05 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
wierd.. looking at a recent EQ list seems like something is up at The Geysers, CA

a 1.8, 1.2, now a 2.5 also getting shallower to 3.1, 3.4, 1.2 respectively
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
376. Bonedog
2:00 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
as I am watching the EQ map new EQs popping up all over the place LOL 3.3 just went off in Nevada
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
375. Bonedog
1:56 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
alot of 5s going off this morning. Earth must be stretching a little
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
374. RTLSNK
1:55 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Morning everyone, 33 F in Macon, Ga , good thing we covered the veggie garden last night, humidity is at 89%, yard was all frosty white this morning! Whats up with the earth shaking all over the world?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20622
373. Bonedog
1:50 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
MAP 5.0 2008/11/17 11:31:53 -11.504 166.095 85.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
372. Bonedog
1:49 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
MAP 5.3 2008/11/17 13:16:37 -16.546 172.277 85.2 VANUATU REGION
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
371. TampaSpin
1:40 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
17-NOV-2008 12:35:42 33.50 -116.86 4.1 8.4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
370. Bonedog
1:39 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
looking around the net no reports of a tsunami, alot of damage though and a few deaths and numerous injuries.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
369. aquak9
1:39 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
San Diego area, really closer to the Palomar Observatory, had a 4.1 recently as well.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
368. TampaSpin
1:35 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
I just added a Tsunami Warning to my blog thats stays updated with a link..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
367. Bonedog
1:26 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
for the indo EQ

WEPA40 RJTD 161719
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 1717Z 16 NOV 2008
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:1703Z 16 NOV 2008
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT 1.2NORTH LON122.2EAST
MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
BORNEO - SULAWESI
MAG:7.6(MW)
BY PTWC

EVALUATION
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
CELEBES SEA

ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE AMPLITUDE
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
DAVAO 06.9N 125.7E 1807Z 16 NOV 0.5M
CELEBES SEA
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
ZAMBOANGA 06.9N 122.1E 1749Z 16 NOV 1M
TARAKAN 03.3N 117.6E 1745Z 16 NOV 0.5M
MANADO 01.6N 124.9E 1718Z 16 NOV 2M
TOLITOLI 01.1N 120.8E 1727Z 16 NOV 1M

AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST

HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN OUR ESTIMATION AT THE NEARBY
FORECAST POINTS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY

FURTHERMORE THE EVALUATION OF TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL AND ESTIMATED
ARRIVAL TIME OF TSUNAMIS MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF PTWC
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD USE THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIMES FOR
GREATEST SAFETY

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE
OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
366. Bonedog
1:23 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
new EQ at the North Pole

Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Monday, November 17, 2008 at 12:55:23 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2008 at 04:55:23 AM at epicenter

Location 79.656°N, 116.072°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ARCTIC OCEAN

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
365. TampaSpin
1:23 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
364. TampaSpin
1:21 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
363. TampaSpin
1:14 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
good morning all another major earthqk over there in indo


7.5 and alot of 5 in the area.....while nothing big is happening along the East Pacific.....looks scary when pressure is released somewhere pressure is built......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
362. Bonedog
1:13 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
from looking at the scientific data I am wondering if a tsunami was generated. The tensor data was a true thrust fault EQ.

-------
-------- ------
---------- P --------
------------ ----------
-----------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
----####################---------
#############################----
################################-
############### ###############
-############## T ##############-
--############ #############-
----########################---
-----###################-----
-------###########-------
---------------------
-----------------
-------


Reported shake map shows some folks reported violent shaking.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
361. stormwatcherCI
1:03 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
I take it you have not been in Grand Cayman too long. This is how cold fronts affect us. Some can and do just as much damage as a hurricane. Especially on the waterfront in George Town.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
359. pottery
12:41 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Morning all
Temp 82 F
Chance of rain, 30%
heheheh
Not in for long, just till I finish this cup.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24029
358. Thundercloud01221991
12:35 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Light Snow/Fog

29F
(-1C)
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: W 19 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1013.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 25F (-4C)
Wind Chill: 20F (-7C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
357. MissNadia
12:33 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
338
Mr Da Hood...lot of hot air in that yard!...... Good morning to you!!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
356. stoormfury
12:32 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
possibly sub tropical storm Rene west of the Azores this week?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2600
355. Bonedog
12:28 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Clear
Temp: 30°F
Humidity: 80%
Wind Speed: SW 5 MPH
Barometer: 30 in.
Dewpoint: 25°F
Wind Chill: 26°F

latest conditions by me.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
354. Bonedog
12:21 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
CONUS in the freezer next two weeks.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
353. Thundercloud01221991
12:01 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting WxLogic:
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P


I am only expecting to get between 6 and 12 inches that is like a normal winter couple of days
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
352. Bonedog
12:01 PM GMT on November 17, 2008
looking at the model runs looks like the Northeast and most of the EC will see winds and cold weather for the forecasted future. Seeing a Low develope and race north while a high is set up over the ohio valley, should make for a tight pressure gradiant so a cold north wind.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
351. WxLogic
11:55 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Hehe... got to head out as I need to get to work. I'll be lurking from time to time. Have a nice day.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
350. Bonedog
11:55 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
morning folks 34 here. chance of snow tonight =)

Glad to hear nothing tropical on the horizon.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
349. WxLogic
11:54 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
348. WxLogic
11:51 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting bollidear:
Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks


Hehe... np.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
347. bollidear
11:49 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks
346. Thundercloud01221991
11:46 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Currently it is 31 deg here where I live

Snow just to my north but I am expecting to get it today Lake Effect Snow Advisories are in affect
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
345. WxLogic
11:44 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?


It is related to a passing Cold Front... the one that we had pass through FL from Friday night into Saturday for CFL and Sunday on SFL. So you're basically getting the wind shift line which typically comes with a swath of gusty winds.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
344. WxLogic
11:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Good morning...

Well since I live in a cold spot in CFL my temp is currently 37.8F. :)
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
343. bollidear
11:39 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
342. all4hurricanes
11:14 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr

52!!!
it's 33 degrees here in northern VA
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
341. MisterJohnny
11:05 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr
340. vortfix
10:50 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
I'm glad we don't have to deal with this in FL:


Photobucket
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
339. vortfix
10:48 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Good morning Rob.
I think you will most likely see your temp drop two, maybe three degrees again by around 7:30 this morning.

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
338. RobDaHood
10:29 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Okay, this is kind of wierd. Local forecast was 38 degrees, which I thought was kind of low as the NWS hourly ran about 5 degrees below what I was seeing all afternoon and evening. Temps bottomed out about 48.5 degrees and then rose slowly to the current temp of 51. Thought I might have some problems with PWS readings, but PWS at local elect utility confirms that temps are on the rise again. Mine, of course, is about 3 degrees warmer than their's, because I am on the east side of a lake and winds are under 5 mph. Just didn't expect to see temps begin to rise at 3:30 am.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31763
337. KoritheMan
5:34 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
It's 36F here in Prairieville, Louisiana. I'm freezing. Have socks on, which is rare for me. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
336. docrod
4:33 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good evening everyone........burr..


yes ... burr ... I was in Sarasota this Friday - cold here too in the Keys ... bundle up
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 771
335. TampaSpin
4:30 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Good evening everyone........burr..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
334. docrod
4:27 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)


Agreed - BBC has a quality site
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 771
333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:13 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Bureau of Meteorology - TCWC Perth

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Central Indian Ocean 90E-110E)
=============================================
The monsoon trough is active along 10S. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the monsoon trough on Wednesday or Thursday though it is unlikely that is will form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
----------------------------------
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
332. docrod
4:09 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
cool here too - i have no heat for the house but blankets will do nicely. Generally February is our coldest month.

let's have no rain on Cayman Brac for a while ....
- good eve - Rod



000
FPUS52 KKEY 162118 CCA
ZFPKEY

ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

FLZ076-170900-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

CORRECTED WIND PHRASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS NEAR
60. HIGHS 70 TO 75. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY AND COOL. HIGHS NEAR 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 65.
HIGHS 70 TO 75.
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 771
331. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:05 AM GMT on November 17, 2008


need a new layout file..?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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