Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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ROTFL - KWBrat - in my dreams in the ocean-- I am very humble out there. East Coast of FL girls are they are the real tough chicka's - the ocean has eaten and spit me out a few times & I have scars & a broken nose as reminders, ON the road running -- heh heh - I've broken a few out there....LOL smile..you know those "glory days"
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Hades, just zapped your Philippine weather over to my surf buddy -- as always thank you... after his wedding during that Typhoon -- he doesn't call me a weatherworry anymore
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Dog loved her walk tonight, the air and wind -- are so lively -- I used to be so blind to these changes..... well maybe not blind, but clueless -- did not understand the "forces" at hand. Now I'm always checking flags just to see which way the wind is blowing. Watching and feeling this cold front drop, checking out all the clouds and their movement, seeing the ocean go from oil slick flat to a fun roller coaster, really enjoy understanding what I am experiencing.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting keywestbrat:
g'day surfmom how ya doing, got some waves I see :) yippeee


Two Days in a row!! Yesterday three hours - with my favorite local guys -- the waves were very mellow -- so I could keep up with the guys: )

Today, coming in a bit different, but enough push for rides... couple of young kids out - one I know - thus the name "surfmom" - cause I'm the only "old chicka" out there.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting surfmom:
I have learned to love cold front waves -- much better then the atmosphere that surrounds 'cane waves


Cold front waves are much better for us all i believe......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Nice to read you had a good Run HiExpress, I am also (after all these years) still amazed at how much time I can knock off my runs when there isn't any humidity. I also think it's comparable to high altitude running -- in both cases your sucking for air
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
I have learned to love cold front waves -- much better then the atmosphere that surrounds 'cane waves
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Wow - what a weather day!! Even as I type it is rocking here in SWFL - SRQ. 29.94, winds clipping along Steady at 15mph. Gomex temp 70 degrees - waist high waves on the right sand bar.

Polo was interrupted by a band of rain that drench all the horses, saddles, equipment. Then passed so the games continued. Clean up was a chore, lots of horse laundry, tack box got flooded, horse blankets sopping wet, all the leather and saddles are drying out and had to be super cleaned -- somehow it was an adventure.....specially for me watching the line of weather coming in and knowing we were going to get wet. LOL

Best part was getting all the work done in time to grab two hours of waves before sunset. that's two days in a row!! --I was smiling yesterday, today I am sparkling
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
9:00 AM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 26.3N 150.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.9N 154.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 39.1N 165.3E - EXTRATROPICAL
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal crossed south Andhra Pradesh coast

At 2:30 AM IST, The available coastal observation indicates that the Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moves west-northwestward and lays centered very close to the coast, north of Kavali. The system moved further west-northwest and crossed south Andhra Pradesh coast close to north of Kavali between 0330-0430 IST. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Good evening everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
True, CRS. I had forgotten that transaction.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882
Quoting pottery:
...Cotillion ... You think he jumped off the London Bridge or something ??

Evening Pottery,
good to see you are back to your "normal" self
I think Cotillion would have to go to Arizona to jump off the London Bridge... : )
Link
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I've just posted a few pictures in my blog from the southern California fires.

I'm not NEAR them, but the smoke is blowing towards me as I live on the coast. Whenever we have Santa Ana's - everything blows off shore.

The winds have died down greatly here where I am (Seal Beach), not sure if that's the same for where the fires are actually located...but the air is BAD!

I'm getting a headache and my throat hurts...can't imagine what the air is like right where the fires are burning.
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LOL Brat. I dont envy you the slow speed thing. Been there. Cost a fortune in hours waiting on stuff to load.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882
Hi all!

How are yall today?

I'm splendid, I get to cut my energy costs for today, tomorrow, and maybe for an entire week!

it's gonna get cold tonight for me (36 for a low)

How's everyone's weather by that front?
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DDR, 6 or 7 inches will create some probs. all right. The place is wet already mostly. I am glad for it. Unfortunately, a section of my guttering collapsed today under the load. Hoping for a few dry hours sometime tomorrow to get up there with my tools. 24 feet up, so I am not doing that while it is wet.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882
Just put under a tornado watch. (Ugh...)
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59. DDR
Hi pottery,I'm expecting to see at least 6 or 7 inches by the end of the week and lots flooding,the GFS has this wet stuff over us for at least one week?
When you see this i'll be gone,goodnight....
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Doing good, Brat. Had 2.75 inches of rain in the last 18 hrs or so. Very welcomed. More to come too.
I dont know if you were here yesterday, but I lost my identity here somehow, and it reverted to an old one, with no avatar. Anyway, it's fixed.
I still have major probs. with this technocrap..........

Well done, the rugby today vs. England. You beat them again.
Have not seen Cotillion since we were ribbing him weeks ago. You think he jumped off the London Bridge or something ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882
Quoting RobDaHood:
The Subject of this Blog entry by Doc should be a reminder to those of us in Florida...

Thanks, yes, but we don't really get that combination of hot dry wind and terrain, but we do have some interesting fuels. When the Western firefighters came here in 1998, some said - that stuff is green, "it won't burn". Wrong.

Prog panned out & beach was record awesome for a long run this afternoon.
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Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

well that wasn't dramatic at all...
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Final Information on the Deadly EF3 in N.C.


Time/date: estimated from 330 am to 345 am EST, Saturday November
15, 2008
peak wind: 140 mph
path length: approximately 8 miles discontinuous
path width: 100 yards
injuries: 4 known
fatalities: 1

Weather.com has some footage of the damage.
I was shocked at what an EF3 can do.There was some other weaker confirmed tornadoes in N.C as well in S.C. Reguardless, these other tornadoes caused damage,injuries and I believe another death.
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HEY, I'm Back, in the original format.
"some people say,
that there's a woman to blame.
But I know
It was my own dam fault"


Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882
test
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24882


interesting Mesocyclone discussion box
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast

At 23:30 PM IST, The available observation from satellite, radar, and coastal stations indicate that the Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and now lays centered near 15.0N 80.5E or 50 kms east of Kavali. The system is likely to move in a west-northwest direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Kavali with the next few hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
In the last 22 years, killer tornadoes have taken place on this date 7 times now.

1987 - 22+ tornadoes, 11 deaths
1988 - 44 tornadoes, 7 deaths
1989 - 18+ tornadoes, 21 deaths
1994 - 6 tornadoes, 1 death
2005 - 50 tornadoes, 1 death
2006 - 26 tornadoes, 2 deaths
2008 - 6+ tornadoes, 2 deaths

What is it with November 15th? Some kind of curse?
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there goes the warm weather here in SWFL!!!!,wave bye-bye....it won't be here for more than a week this time of year(cold weather),it chould be back up near 80 by next sat.....
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Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

NE WATCH, TORNADIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLE!
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konkigrl.
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Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

OMG!
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Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Weather Outlook 1200z 15NOV
======================================

LOW (1003 hPa)
7.0ºS 78.0ºE

little change is expected during the next 12 hours.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 15NOV)
=========================================
An area of convection (99S) located at 9.4S 79.4E or 430 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center also evident in a 1251z Coriolis Pass. The low level circulation center lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate and westward diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Because the low level circulation center is just beginning to consolidate and vertical wind shear is stronger than optimal, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
darn! there are just too much tropical activity my finger are starting to hurt from typing.. HAHA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards the South China Sea

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
=============================
At 5 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 9.3ºN, 116.2ºE or 280 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Singal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60km/h)

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Southern Palawan

Additional Information
=========================
Public Storm Warning Signal #1 elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
6:00 AM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 25.8N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 29.6N 153.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 32.0N 158.0E - EXTRATROPICAL

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Brat, b4 I leave, sometimes the ads take a while to load, even on a fast DSL. after the posts load hit stop on your browser...should help with the dial-up experience.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33552
Out for a bit...back later tonight. Kinda cloudy, so maybe a spectacular sunset...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33552
Hey Brat!
Welcome back!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33552

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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