Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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Morning Stillwaiting - getting the young bucks set-up food, surfboards, wetsuit -- group share today - trying to find wetsuits to fit some of the boys without. I'm waiting for a little more radiant heat from the sun. Got cold to the core yesterday. Been surfing the past two days with a bum knee, which is not too happy today --even so, I'm looking to be out this afternoon - Not sure just where yet - I'll ring you if I'm at Turtle or around public beach. Unfortunately, I have soo much frickin' domestics to catch -up on and I should go grocery shopping......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Tampaspin:that looks like a possible nor'easter set up before thanksgiving...
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Hi cotillion - the night crew was wondering about you last night
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
TampaSpin post117 --- Brrrrrr that's just toooo much cold weather - gonna have snot running out of the nose working the horses out - always a bummer, cause I got the reins in one hand and the whip in another. -got to pull out the running tights and gloves as well. Not fond of these lifestyle changes --- Yesterday got away surfing w/just a heavy neoprene top....today we're pulling out the heavy duty armor - full wet suit 3/2 -as well as a neat liner that features "metalite" a titanium coated interior acting like a thermal blanket, trapping in body heat and reflecting the elements
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
anyone notice its snowing at doctor masters house right now?????
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I still would not call this cold weather upper 60s and mid 40s is pleasant if you ask me.
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oh yea,with the water temp. low and these gusty north winds,I can tell you even w/the suits it'll be cold out the wind is very blustery out here!!!
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surfmom:BIG WAVES,I'm looking at them right now!!!,looks like the east coast,though the waves do look sloppy,when you going out???,I might take a walk over and say hello!!!!
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Quoting surfmom:
Gooood Morning Weather Wizards!!! Surfmom is in the kitchen cooking up oatmeal & Canadian Bacon -- son & buddies are getting ready to hit the beach & surf those cold front waves!!
WOAH Gomex Surfers - Waves! Buoy at 10ft@8seconds from the WNW. Winds steady N15- 20mph, Waves all Day - Leftovers Monday, BUMPS UP again on Tuesday, leftovers Wednesday morning.
WAX 'EM UP


Surfmom i guess everyone uses body suits...lol
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Gooood Morning Weather Wizards!!! Surfmom is in the kitchen cooking up oatmeal & Canadian Bacon -- son & buddies are getting ready to hit the beach & surf those cold front waves!!
WOAH Gomex Surfers - Waves! Buoy at 10ft@8seconds from the WNW. Winds steady N15- 20mph, Waves all Day - Leftovers Monday, BUMPS UP again on Tuesday, leftovers Wednesday morning.
WAX 'EM UP
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Just a quick stop to see what the local talk is on the weather and other events this morning. We had a lot of rain and some wind yesterday as the front went through. The temperature also dropped as the front went through.
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Here is the MJO map. Look at the West Pacific..no wonder it is active...an look at the Water Temperatures. Those 2 combined will always spell activity.



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Brrr. ChatterChatterChatter
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115,

Different scale. It's not using the S-S Scale.

And hey everyone, hopefully this lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic can stay, though the Pacific and nearby areas aren't seemingly having fun right now.
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10 days out another dip in the jet stream occurs.......that Thanksgiving in time frame...and it appears to be as strong as this one but occurs little further West which will create a snow storm in the mid west and the east coast.....BEWARE of TRAVEL PLANS over Thanksgiving. Just my opinion!

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Tomorromw morning 95% of the ConUs will be below 40degress..........wow....it only mid November.....Good Morning everyone....

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (998 hPa) located at 10.7N 113.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4N 110.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
69 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)


Those aren't cat 1 winds. They're TS winds
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114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (998 hPa) located at 10.7N 113.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4N 110.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
69 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 27.4N 152.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 33.1N 157.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 40.6N 168.5E - EXTRATROPICAL
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113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVEN
15:00 PM JST November 15 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 27.2N 151.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 32.5N 156.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 40.6N 168.5E - EXTRATROPICAL

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
15:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (1000 hPa) located at 10.4N 114.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.1N 111.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
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Governor Schwarzenegger has issued a state of emergency for the Orange County fires. The wind conditions at my location are very calm. The canyons just to my north are still having strong winds, though not as bad as earlier.

The humidity at my location is 14%, up from 5% this afternoon, it will fall again tomorrow with more sun and record heat. 93 is the forecast temperature.

Firefighter are experiencing low water pressure, exacerbating their problems.

From the web a few minutes ago:


November 15th, 2008, 10:00 pm by cmeyer

ANAHEIM HILLS-CORONA-YORBA LINDA and BREA FIRES

ORIGIN: 91 Freeway at Weir Canyon. Jumped freeway at Weir Canyon.

ACRES INVOLVED: More than 5,873

CONTAINMENT: 5%

FIREFIGHTERS DEPLOYED: 1,260

INJURIES: 6 minor injuries to firefighters

STRUCTURES

1,000 threatened

100 damaged

60 destroyed

HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED: 59 single-family, 60 apartments

* Anaheim Hills: 10 homes and 50 units in Cascade Apartments, 8604 E. Whitewater Drive
* Yorba Linda: 30
* Brea: 1
* Corona: 14

EVACUATIONS: About 22,000 people

Anaheim

%u2013 West of the 241 freeway, east of Weir Canyon Road/Serrano, south of 91 Freeway and north of Marblehead
%u2013 Savi Ranch
%u2013 South of Mohler Drive, east of Del Giorgio, north of Canyon Rim Road, and west of Deer Canyon Park and Fairmont Park

Brea
%u2013 Lambert Road east of State College and north of Lambert
%u2013 Kraemer Boulevard Northeast of the intersection of State College and Lambert
%u2013 Kraemer Boulevard north of Lambert Road

- Olinda Village and Sleepy Hollow

Yorba Linda
%u2013 Northwest of the intersection of San Antonio and Yorba Linda Boulevard, Foxtail Street and Stonehaven Street are evacuated.
%u2013 North of Yorba Linda Boulevard between San Antonio and Village Center
%u2013 Voluntary evacuation north of Yorba Linda Boulevard between Village Center and Fairmont

INJURIES: 4 firefighters, minor

EVACUATION CENTERS:

* Tommy Lasorda Field House, 4701 Casa Loma Ave., Yorba Linda
* Travis Ranch Community Center, 5200 Via De La Escuela, Yorba Linda
* Brea Community Center, 695 Madison, Brea
* Valencia High School, at 500 North Bradford Ave., Placentia
* Esperanza High School RELOCATED to Katella High School, 220 E. Wagner Ave., Anaheim
* Anaheim Community Center at 250 E. Center St., Anaheim
* Loara High School, 1765 Euclid, Anaheim
* Corona High School, 1150 West 10th St., Corona.

Annabella Hotel is offering displaced residents a discounted rate- 714-905-1050

ROAD CLOSURES:

The California Highway Patrol is reporting the following closures:

* The westbound 91 freeway, closed on both sides, between Imperial Highway and Corona freeway
* The northbound 241 toll road, closed at Santiago Canyon Road
* The 57 freeway, closed on both sides, between Imperial Highway and the 60 freeway
* The 55 freeway, closed at eastbound 91 freeway; traffic is being diverted to westbound 91

Brea closures:

* Northbound Santa Fe Road, closed at Lambert Road
* Carbon Canyon Road, closed to eastbound traffic at Valencia Road
* Northbound Valencia Road, closed at Lambert Road

Anaheim Hills:

* Santa Ana Canyon Road is closed, between Gypsum Canyon Road and Imperial Highway

WATER ADVISORY

Residents of Hidden Hills Estates are advised by the Yorba Linda Water District to boil tap water at least 5 minutes before consuming.
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iam still waitin on 08 to finish up
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what crystal ball you using
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Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Central Florida could get ideal radiational cooling next week.

I hate it when that happens.
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104. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
12:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEAS

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.4N 114.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.1N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

--------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
12:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 26.8N 151.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 31.4N 155.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 39.1N 165.3E - EXTRATROPICAL
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WU hoo for cold weather

energy costs will now be low

PS if you go the the NHC website you can even clearly see the dip in the jetstream there



see the curve

Huge Hint: on the US and is under the word "tropical"
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Looks like Central Florida could get ideal radiational cooling next week.
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Quoting surfmom:
89Socalm very serious information you just posted -- are those winds suppose to lay down soon?
Surfmom Quoted the wrong comment, should have been 92.
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #9 (0300z 16NOV) - FINAL
=============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five (Khai-Muk) has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER... THE SYSTEM MAY RE-EMERGE INTO THE ARABIAN SEA IN THE COMING DAYS AND REORGANIZE.
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Quoting surfmom:
29.97 was 29.94.... this is the stuff that makes my bones ache -- every old injury gets in my face
Mostly lurker here. Winds supposed to decrease tomorrow. Winds supposed to go onshore Tuesday and bring in more moisture.
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LOL the public bulletin are getting faster from the IMD now that Khai Muk has made landfall over India.
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India Meteorological Department

SUBJECT: Deep Depression over south coastal Andhra Pradesh

At 5:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over south coastal Andhra Pradesh lays centered about 50 kms northwest of Kavali. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
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all4hurricanes

that looks interesting to have Noul in the BOB
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surfermom

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" continues to move away from the country towards the South China Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11- FINAL (Out of PAR)
=============================
At 11 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 10.3ºN, 115.1ºE or 400 km west of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance as it moves further away from the country.

---
your friend don't have to worry about Tonyo anymore.
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89Socalm very serious information you just posted -- are those winds suppose to lay down soon?
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
29.97 was 29.94.... this is the stuff that makes my bones ache -- every old injury gets in my face
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536

This looks like it will be an interesting storm possibly a devastating one
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Fires in eastern Orange County and western Riverside county fired up early this morning, further taxing the efforts of the firefighters. Foscheck, a fire retardant, has been dropped through out the fire areas by fixed-wing aircraft.

Rolling blackouts are expected in Los Angeles.

The location of the Riverside/orange county fires has closed the 91 freeway, the 57 freeway and parts of the 261 toll road. This is a VERY congested thoroughfare. The fire has jumped the 91 and is spreading fast, affecting Yorba Linda, Anaheim Hills, and Corona. Vehicles and their occupants were stuck on the 91 as the smoke caused the traffic to stop.

The 91 is perhaps the busiest highway that runs east and west from Los Angeles to northern Orange County and the Inland Empire (Riverside/Corona).

I suggest visiting the Orange County Register for coverage of these fires. I have no affiliation with this publication, but i find their field reporting comprehensive and to-the-minute.

www.ocregister.com

Those of you in that area, I wish you the best of luck and clarity to make the best decisions for your safety and well being.
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BRB
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting keywestbrat:
surfmom, hows the horse's, you guys winning?
It's been amazing and Polo season hasn't really totally kicked in. Got picked up to replace a patron up in Ocala last weekend. Totally free ticket -Horse/grooms etc. 8-goal polo, he's 15 -- no one could tell that he was a replacement. He's doing quite well in the arena down here and is getting picked up for a USPA Arena Tournament....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
65SBkaren - thanks for that infor on the fires. Can't imagine fearing that coming at me. I really have a fear of fire -- that is a nightmare.

Anyone know when those winds are suppose to let up?
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I learned "heh, heh, heh" from Pottery LOL
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ROTFL - KWBrat - in my dreams in the ocean-- I am very humble out there. East Coast of FL girls are they are the real tough chicka's - the ocean has eaten and spit me out a few times & I have scars & a broken nose as reminders, ON the road running -- heh heh - I've broken a few out there....LOL smile..you know those "glory days"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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