Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like Sibera to me.......lol



Wow...thats cold.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Looks like Sibera to me.......lol

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Good evening everyone.
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Greetings, Orca and all.
Well, it seems that the only weather in the Trop. Atl, just about, is overhead me. 3.5 inches in 2 days, still cloudy, and more to come overnight and tomorrow.
Its all very good.
Spent the day entertaining good friends, with all the required ingredients thrown in. Food, grog, laffs, music.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23902
Its dead in here today :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
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High today in West Palm..64....supposed to be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow...Beautiful weather!!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10929
Skye - we aren't projected to have any until early next week - and that's a big maybe. At this point I'll take the marine layer and fog that I usually hate because the moisture makes my hair frizz. We could use any moisture in our air right now.
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174. Skyepony (Mod)
SBKaren~ I can believe your photo made it up there:) Nice account in your blog too. I hate to see you dealing with it. Ash kicking up when you walk..when ya thought you couldn't want rain anymore. Hope ya'll see gentle, steady rain that drizzles with no end for days real soon.
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173. Skyepony (Mod)
Noul~ another with some really high cloud tops. The bad thing about this was they were just unindated by an event that ended yesterday, before this storm even bagan pulling together, with a high tital surge & rains that killed 11 & flooded thousands of homes. Vietnam is having a bad week weather wise.
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Believe it or not our skies look better today than they did yesterday. Still very hazy, smokey, but I don't see the dark, dark smoke I saw yesterday.

There are ashes everywhere. We went for a walk this morning and just stepping on them caused them to rise in the air. Air is still bad, eyes still burn, throat a bit sore - so just taking it easy.

Can't believe my photo made it up above :) While I'm impressed to be highlighted by that, I wish I didn't have that picture to share, because then that would mean there would be no fires. So many homes have been lost...it's just a tragedy.

No more strong winds though, and THAT is a blessing to be sure.
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Quoting Drakoen:
I hope this happens:
Link


That's coming right at me!
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I hope this happens:
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
Hi DocM and all here present,
Thanks, Doc, for blogging about this.

Los Angeles basin has to be filling with smoke from both Sayre/Sylmar and O.C. fires. Bad air quality for sure. In these situations, I worry about the firefighters, with the winds and all. Hope weather will improve with less wind and more humidity. Many high temp records set in SoCal yesterday.

L.A. Times has some good info and links for fire maps and news.
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how was the surf surfmom... its snowing here in MI, and we have about 1/2 to an inch on the ground here
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Shuttle 400 ft. from docking
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NYC may have to watch out next week....

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THU MORNING...AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THU NIGHT...CARVING OUT YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THU BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE ON FRI.
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND...WHEREAS THE
GFS KEEPS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW
PRES RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SAT. SHOULD THE GFS
PAN OUT...THAT COULD PRODUCE AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE
REGION. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND
520 DAM...ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -13C.
THE ECMWF...
HOWEVER...HAS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRI...BUILDING EAST
AND BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST COAST ON SAT/SUN...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED TO
THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ON THU AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW DIGS
INTO THE REGION...THEN WILL CARRY "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE INTO THE AREA
AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH PRES.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Wow. the NWS continues to forecast lower and lower temps. for west-central florida. Tampa at 41, Lutz at 35, and me in Odessa at 35. Frost is possible from north of I4 and east of vet/suncoast
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Back from surfing the Gulf -- Brain Freeze -- is the adjective. There will be no whine/wine...but Pottery's recipe instead:
1/2 cup rum, 1/2 cup hot water,2 spoons sugar,1 dash bitters
I am off to defrost
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
JAKARTA, Indonesia - A powerful earthquake struck waters off eastern Indonesia early Monday, briefly generating tsunami warnings for coastlines within 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) of the epicenter.

Thousands of people in nearby coastal towns fled homes, hotels and hospitals in panic, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries.

The U.S. Geological Survey put the quake's magnitude at 7.5 and said it struck 54 miles (135 kilometers) from the nearest city, Gorantalo, located on Sulawesi island. It was centered 13 miles (21 kilometers) beneath the sea and was followed by two strong aftershocks.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10929
Another blog hole!!
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hurristat: according to Typhoon 2000 the only thing that will change is the naming of the system from typhoon number to cyclonic storm

Typhoon Number 2008-21 to BOB07-2008.


So if it was a Typhoon, it would become a Cyclone? That's it? That's what I thought, but I just wanted to double-check
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160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hurristat: according to Typhoon 2000 the only thing that will change is the naming of the system from typhoon number to cyclonic storm

Typhoon Number 2008-21 to BOB07-2008.
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Snowing pretty hard outside now...: ) there was a blog hole
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The UKMET and CMC look to try to develop something in the southern Caribbean. The tail end of a strong surface cold front should reach the Caribbean and may help to instigate something down there later in the week. Such a system would have little room to move as the upper level trough behind the front increases shear over most of the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
North Carolina Snow totals

Location 24 hour time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


... Avery County...
Beech Mountain 3.0 700 am 11/16 coop
Banner Elk 1.0 700 am 11/16 coop
Flat Springs 0.7 700 am 11/16 1 E coop

... Graham County...
Robbinsville T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Madison County...
Marshall T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Swain County...
Bryson City T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Yancey County...
Mt Mitchell 2.0 700 am 11/16 coop


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Hmm lets see if this works



Click to enlarge
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B/4 I go Ohhhhh Orca - surfacing at long last!!! -- figured you were swamped with that nasty weather this past week. I'm getting ready to jump out and get wet --I'm gonna look like a mini-orca w/all the damn rubber/neoprene I got to put on.... sheesh still getting some strong wind here... I'm out for a while... a girl gotta do what a girl gotta do (spouse is pleased - not spending money in the mall xmas shopping today LOL --but when he opens the empty refridge... might sing a different tune) hee hee. Good Afternoon to you all, when you hear a shriek from the cold ---it's me!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
149Rob - that's a belly laugh - pls note... I did send the young bucks out first. hee, hee....and I think I'm stalling presently..... but kitchen clean-up is done, critters are fed....so guess I am out of excuses.... wind seems to be laying down here too -- you must be located closer to me then I thought. I hoping to go to the spot near Stillwaiting - if the winds quiets I might be able to. tick tock --now is the time to stop thinking & commit.-- I'm on the move - catch you all later
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting SOCALm:
UPDATE for "FreewayComplex" Fire.

KCAL9 CBS-LA (Air)
http://cbstv-0009-live.wm.llnwd.net/cbstv_0009z_live
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UPDATE for "FreewayComplex" Fire.

Firefighters have laid out a containment zone for the fire. The larger Carona/Yorba Linda fire has merged to the considerably smaller Brea Fire. The 91, 55, 57 and 241 freeways are still closed or rerouted around the area of the fire.

Winds are expected to decrease further today but will head in southwestern direction. this has the potential to create fire tunnels (think dirt devils made of fire) as the wind currents collide.

Temperatures are expected to decrease after today and onshore winds will come later today bringing much needed humidty to the atmosphere. there is no probability of rain forcast until a week from this Monday.

On a lighter note: to surfermom, my wife and I surf San Clemente and occassionally San Onofre here. Tides have been much higher the last few days because of lunar conditions, it's been good surfing and the warm weather is a bonus. we never surfed the east coast when we lived in NC. i did start surfing a little when i lived in west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline, but you could only do it about this time of year. the winds would kick up the waves on lake michigan up around 6-10 feet. the water was cold, cold, COLD, usually about 45-50 dergrees. stay safe!
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Good Morning... afternoon.. evening all :)

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I have a question... If Noul crosses into the N. Indian, will it retain its name or will it become Nisha??
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148. surfmom

LOL - guess it's all relative. You think he's addicted...I think the same of you when you talk of going out on a day like this...

Winds seem to be dropping a tad here
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CRS - Didn't get that at first -- that IS the lakes ......what an addictive surfer that guy must be.
There is an addiction with this sport -- riding a waves, harnessing that power, interacting with the "physics" of a wave -- kinda like how a music wave tickles your ear, the surf wave tickles the soul
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone notice its snowing at doctor masters house right now?????


Me... I live 15 minutes away from him.
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141. AussieStorm

some very interesting articles on that site! LOL
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This Calif. fire thing is really frightening.....order of disaster preference for me, 1. Canes, 2. tornado's 3. earthquakes 4. Fire/volcanos
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
CRS - OMG that is COLD, imagine there are people who surf the great lakes!!! - yes, I know that cold - really takes alot out of me. I'm too vain to wear a hoody, but they make sense.I will wear booties & gloves, but when it's that cold it's more for the wildness then the pleasure --for sure. Just got all the young bucks fed, suited & out the door & on their coldfront surf safari... amazing how much mess they leave behind... but better to have a mess to clean then no mess at all I say
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
143. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Weather Outlook 1200z 16NOV
======================================

LOW (1000 hPa)
7.0S 78.0E

Winds expected to strengthen together with rough to very rough seas around the low.


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Okay, I'll concede the temps aren't that bad today, but that wind bites...No water fun in my future today. Been blowin about 20 mph all morning so no outdoor cooking either, until that's over.
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Los Angeles ringed by three wildfires, evacuating thousands
Link
Not looking good. Stay safe if ur in L.A.
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Quoting surfmom:
Still --I'll call you if/when I go ---I much prefer your beach -- but it looks like I'm going to have to "suck it up"

...check the photo "Surfing in the Snow???" I left in your Blog comments
CRS
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hmmm...
Different blog up top,
but same comment thread?
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138. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER KHAI-MUK (BOB06-2008)
17:00 PM IST November 16 2008
============================================

Subject: Depression over Rayalaseema weakened into well marked low pressure area.

The depression over Rayalaseema weakened into well marked low pressure area over north Rayalaseema and adjoining Telengana

Final Advisory issued by the India Meteorological Department

==============================================================================================

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
21:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (996 hPa) located at 10.6N 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
====================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.5N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.0N 105.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 10.0N 101.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

=============================================================================================


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
21:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 28.3N 154.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 20 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 33.1N 159.6E - EXTRATROPICAL
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Still --I'll call you if/when I go ---I much prefer your beach -- but it looks like I'm going to have to "suck it up"
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh? What was said?
Pottery & KeyWestBrat were just wondering where you had been, perhaps concerned their teasing was too much -- friendly concern. : )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting surfmom:
Ahhh to surf or to grocery shop.......I feel irresponsibility in the air.......Think it's going to be what I call a PeterPan day -- going to play Wendy & run off with the boys from Never Never Land.
Stillwaiting, makes sense that it looks sloppy from your view. Surf sites are recommending protection from the wind. The waves should be cleaner at Crescent Beach and Turtle Beach -- that's why we say best "northwind or Best Winter spots". Your view is what is best went we get that West Wind (Zephyr) swell - which is my favorite. The angle of Siesta Key and how it faces the winds is how we pick where to go.


that makes sense,there's also more of a drop off at your "winter spots",my beach stays alot more shallow further out...have fun and stay warm!!!!
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Quoting Cotillion:


Oh? What was said?


Heh, never mind. Went and looked; nope, no jumping off bridges this week. Been doing papers for Uni, enough boredom perhaps to allow one to entertain such an action though!

But as far as sports go, as long as the Ravens do well, England can suck in all as far as I'm concerned. ;) (Okay, perhaps excepting Cricket. But it's such a usual occurrence anyway.)
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Quoting surfmom:
Hi cotillion - the night crew was wondering about you last night


Oh? What was said?
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Ahhh to surf or to grocery shop.......I feel irresponsibility in the air.......Think it's going to be what I call a PeterPan day -- going to play Wendy & run off with the boys from Never Never Land.
Stillwaiting, makes sense that it looks sloppy from your view. Surf sites are recommending protection from the wind. The waves should be cleaner at Crescent Beach and Turtle Beach -- that's why we say best "northwind or Best Winter spots". Your view is what is best went we get that West Wind (Zephyr) swell - which is my favorite. The angle of Siesta Key and how it faces the winds is how we pick where to go.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Morning Stillwaiting - getting the young bucks set-up food, surfboards, wetsuit -- group share today - trying to find wetsuits to fit some of the boys without. I'm waiting for a little more radiant heat from the sun. Got cold to the core yesterday. Been surfing the past two days with a bum knee, which is not too happy today --even so, I'm looking to be out this afternoon - Not sure just where yet - I'll ring you if I'm at Turtle or around public beach. Unfortunately, I have soo much frickin' domestics to catch -up on and I should go grocery shopping......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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