Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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Hi there, Bjanmama. Good to see you.
I did notice that Surfmom left out the lime. But I figured, wont do her any lasting harm!!. As to the clove, I have not tried that along with the punch. But I will.
You are right. Climate change is evident here. I think it is obvious that a small Island would react to the small changes in things like SST more than a continent.
And yes, the drop in oil price is good news for most people. Especially now.
I was talking to a guy from the Hilton chain in the Islands. They are worried. Low bookings. Etc. This will affect your tourism badly.
Interesting times.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
I believe this is the Extra-Tropical system that Jeff said could become Sub-Tropical Storm Rene.

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Pot. OK, keep your stupid ol' bamboo.
I'll burn baby seal blubber.
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Quoting pottery:
Take it easy, STL. Re post 197.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.


Good evening Pottery,and all others been lurking awhile during the period when there is "no weather in the Atlantic/Caribbean"(?) and we are getting constantly soaked: Again! After 15" of rain in October Pottery your Zen philosophy was amazing me, until I saw what you were doing this Sunday afternoon, at the same time that the nasty weather you loved has come upon us, as we didn't have enough the last few days- You were on a lime! God Bless ya! Gather not getting soaked. Nice. Re your recipe for a toddy that surfmom mentioned- you don't use lime and cloves?? Sucking on the cloves really helps when a sore throat is coming on. Re your recent comment above re global warming- Boy Man is that true try being a small island state in the caribean with our SST's these days(years) and several other not-to-be ignored- factors and,if you are of a certain age and read the scientific analyses, global warming is definitely upon us (Caribbean)- However, not being in the petro-rich state of T&T, am really glad the oil prices have come down, the coming global economic crisis is going to zap us bad enough as is. Can you believe it, on top of eveything else- yet, once again MCTV, our cable TV is on the blink again- ah the Caribbean- Reminds me of the years i spent in T&T dealing with T&TEC! Wish I'd had a few of your rum punches today!
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..our National Budget is based on a projected price of 70 dollars a barrel of oil.
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Sheph. So sorry. No Bamboo. No more fires allowed. No heating. No hot food and stuff. We gotta do our part to save the World.
In the meantime, will you guys please burn more petroleum ? the price is too low for us producers.
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224. beell
OMG, what hath Pot, wrought!
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.
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Photographers snapped this picture of Gore enjoying himself in the Arctic....

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yo pottery
May need some of your bambo for the wood stove.
That should be fairly entertaining if it doesn't blow up ;>)
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NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
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Yeah Beel. Sorry man. But some jackass was bound to say the word before too long. It just happened to be me. Sorry. Just a momentary glitch in my otherwise formidable fount of Truth and Relevance.
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Quoting beell:
transitory ephemeral graphics, Drak!
Time to break out the fish! LOL


LOL!
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217. beell
transitory ephemeral graphics, Drak!
Time to break out the fish! LOL
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings, Orca and all.
Well, it seems that the only weather in the Trop. Atl, just about, is overhead me. 3.5 inches in 2 days, still cloudy, and more to come overnight and tomorrow.
Its all very good.
Spent the day entertaining good friends, with all the required ingredients thrown in. Food, grog, laffs, music.
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This storm system about to enter the Gulf of Alaska would be the one that the GFS is forecasting to bring an early snow storm to the Eastern states...

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LOL Drak.
He's my buddy! heheheh

Post 208 STL, good post.
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Quoting beell:
Now see whatcha went and done started, Pottery?


We're being blessed with grandiloquent graphics.
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212. beell
Now see whatcha went and done started, Pottery?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Have to go out looking like the Michelin Man.


LOL!
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Quoting Drakoen:
What do you wear in -30F temperatures? 10 Layers of clothing?


Have to go out looking like the Michelin Man.
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Quoting pottery:
Take it easy, STL.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.


That'll teach you not to mess with Global warming again!

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
Take it easy, STL. Re post 197.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
Morning shot of Noul:
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202. Drakoen 7:52 PM EST on November 16, 2008
Expected to get down to an Arctic 47 degrees down here LOL! brrrr!

Well I love it! (sorry surfmom) We don't get the cool air down our way to much.
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What do you wear in -30F temperatures? 10 Layers of clothing?
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Expected to get down to an Arctic 47 degrees down here LOL! brrrr!
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201. GeoffreyWPB
12:50 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting eddye:
geofreey wpb broward will get to 35


Not forcasted as of yet..BTW, you still go to school in cold weather...:)
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200. Stormchaser2007
12:50 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
10-day forcast for west palm brings the coldest temp. to 49 Wednesday morning. A few degrees colder away from the coast.

Yeah its gonna get pretty dang cold here....


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH WITH DRY/COOL AIR
CONTINUED TO BE ADVECTED OVER MAINLAND S. FLORIDA. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON TEMP FORECAST
AND FIRE WEATHER (MORE ON FIRE WEATHER LATER). WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND SPEED...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD
ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MIN TEMPS COULD FALL
TO THE LOW/MID 50S OVER ERN METRO AREAS, L/M 40S WEST COAST AND
EVEN M/U 30S NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. MINS COULD BE 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.

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199. Drakoen
12:47 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak...do you believe this colder than usual weather across the country is going to be a trend this season or just an anomaly?


I would have to see more of the season first. Would interesting thing that was aforementioned was the deeper than normal Aleutian low, lower than normal 500mb geopotential heights which is observed in seasons that have many Artic breakouts such as the one that occurred in 1977.
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198. GeoffreyWPB
12:47 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
From Wiki for West Palm...

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the city was 24 F (-2.8 C) on January 19, 1977, a date which also recorded measurable snow; and January 20, 1985 which was accompanied by a heavy frost. Other notable freezes which damaged the area's lucrative winter vegetable industry occurred in 1983, 1989, 1997 and 2006.
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196. eddye
12:46 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
geofreey wpb broward will get to 35
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195. Stormchaser2007
12:46 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
12z GFS shows a pretty good storm along the Eastern states.


18z GFS still showing an early snowstorm along the Mid-Atlantic states. I doubt it will happen this way though....

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194. GeoffreyWPB
12:44 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
10-day forcast for west palm brings the coldest temp. to 49 Wednesday morning. A few degrees colder away from the coast.
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193. Stormchaser2007
12:44 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:


A pretty good chance of snow too...


Thats pretty impressive. Hopefully when I visit my family up north it will look something like that. Cant even remember the last time in snowed in Florida.
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192. GeoffreyWPB
12:42 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Drak...do you believe this colder than usual weather across the country is going to be a trend this season or just an anomaly?
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191. Drakoen
12:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow you guys have a chance of snow every day this week.


A pretty good chance of snow too...
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190. eddye
12:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
how cold is it going to get in west palm beach 42
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189. Stormchaser2007
12:39 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



yes that amount of snow is unusual this early in the year

I live right outside of Rochester, NY.


Wow you guys have a chance of snow every day this week.
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188. Drakoen
12:37 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
If it's going to snow in Florida it would happen in Janruary. This year seems to have a early start so might have to push the time frame, for something like that to occur, back.
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187. GeoffreyWPB
12:36 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
My mom grew up in Rochester.
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186. Thundercloud01221991
12:33 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thunder..is that much snow this time of year considered unusual? Native born West Palm guy here. Where are you?



yes that amount of snow is unusual this early in the year

I live right outside of Rochester, NY.
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185. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Thunder..is that much snow this time of year considered unusual? Native born West Palm guy here. Where are you?
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184. Thundercloud01221991
12:27 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
any snow forcast for florida?


no but lots of snow up here in W NY

I am expecting close to a foot of snow
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183. GeoffreyWPB
12:23 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
any snow forcast for florida?
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182. pottery
12:19 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
LOL, that image of temps in the US.
What ever happened to that theory about Global Warming ??
Guess some people would like some of it, before the Winter is done.
Looks to be a cold one, so keep warm. That means turn up all your heaters guys, this current oil price is hurting the likes of little old me.
heheheheh
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181. Stormchaser2007
12:13 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like Sibera to me.......lol



Wow...thats cold.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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