Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

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A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Sayre Fire (Energis)
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Sayre Fire
Southern California Fires (SBKaren)
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.
Southern California Fires

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We had friends that used to live in Laguna Beach, Ca and we went out there to visit one summer. We were sitting at the breakfast table one morning when all the dishes and glasses in the house started to make noise, my wife and I held on to the table while our friends got big grins on their faces and said "don't panic, its just a little trembler", it happens all the time! My wife looked at me at almost the same instant and we both said We are out of here!!!
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NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
Bonedog i have had my concern along the West coast for some time now from lack of activity. Where pressure is released in one place creates tension and pressure somewhere else......
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wierd.. looking at a recent EQ list seems like something is up at The Geysers, CA

a 1.8, 1.2, now a 2.5 also getting shallower to 3.1, 3.4, 1.2 respectively
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as I am watching the EQ map new EQs popping up all over the place LOL 3.3 just went off in Nevada
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alot of 5s going off this morning. Earth must be stretching a little
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Morning everyone, 33 F in Macon, Ga , good thing we covered the veggie garden last night, humidity is at 89%, yard was all frosty white this morning! Whats up with the earth shaking all over the world?
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MAP 5.0 2008/11/17 11:31:53 -11.504 166.095 85.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
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MAP 5.3 2008/11/17 13:16:37 -16.546 172.277 85.2 VANUATU REGION
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17-NOV-2008 12:35:42 33.50 -116.86 4.1 8.4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
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looking around the net no reports of a tsunami, alot of damage though and a few deaths and numerous injuries.
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San Diego area, really closer to the Palomar Observatory, had a 4.1 recently as well.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
I just added a Tsunami Warning to my blog thats stays updated with a link..
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for the indo EQ

WEPA40 RJTD 161719
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 1717Z 16 NOV 2008
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:1703Z 16 NOV 2008
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT 1.2NORTH LON122.2EAST
MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
BORNEO - SULAWESI
MAG:7.6(MW)
BY PTWC

EVALUATION
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
CELEBES SEA

ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE AMPLITUDE
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
DAVAO 06.9N 125.7E 1807Z 16 NOV 0.5M
CELEBES SEA
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
ZAMBOANGA 06.9N 122.1E 1749Z 16 NOV 1M
TARAKAN 03.3N 117.6E 1745Z 16 NOV 0.5M
MANADO 01.6N 124.9E 1718Z 16 NOV 2M
TOLITOLI 01.1N 120.8E 1727Z 16 NOV 1M

AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST

HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN OUR ESTIMATION AT THE NEARBY
FORECAST POINTS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY

FURTHERMORE THE EVALUATION OF TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL AND ESTIMATED
ARRIVAL TIME OF TSUNAMIS MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF PTWC
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD USE THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIMES FOR
GREATEST SAFETY

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE
OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
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new EQ at the North Pole

Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Monday, November 17, 2008 at 12:55:23 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2008 at 04:55:23 AM at epicenter

Location 79.656°N, 116.072°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ARCTIC OCEAN

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Quoting leftovers:
good morning all another major earthqk over there in indo


7.5 and alot of 5 in the area.....while nothing big is happening along the East Pacific.....looks scary when pressure is released somewhere pressure is built......
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from looking at the scientific data I am wondering if a tsunami was generated. The tensor data was a true thrust fault EQ.

-------
-------- ------
---------- P --------
------------ ----------
-----------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
----####################---------
#############################----
################################-
############### ###############
-############## T ##############-
--############ #############-
----########################---
-----###################-----
-------###########-------
---------------------
-----------------
-------


Reported shake map shows some folks reported violent shaking.

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Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
I take it you have not been in Grand Cayman too long. This is how cold fronts affect us. Some can and do just as much damage as a hurricane. Especially on the waterfront in George Town.
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Morning all
Temp 82 F
Chance of rain, 30%
heheheh
Not in for long, just till I finish this cup.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Light Snow/Fog

29F
(-1C)
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: W 19 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1013.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 25F (-4C)
Wind Chill: 20F (-7C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi
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338
Mr Da Hood...lot of hot air in that yard!...... Good morning to you!!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
possibly sub tropical storm Rene west of the Azores this week?
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Clear
Temp: 30°F
Humidity: 80%
Wind Speed: SW 5 MPH
Barometer: 30 in.
Dewpoint: 25°F
Wind Chill: 26°F

latest conditions by me.
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CONUS in the freezer next two weeks.

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Quoting WxLogic:
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P


I am only expecting to get between 6 and 12 inches that is like a normal winter couple of days
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looking at the model runs looks like the Northeast and most of the EC will see winds and cold weather for the forecasted future. Seeing a Low develope and race north while a high is set up over the ohio valley, should make for a tight pressure gradiant so a cold north wind.
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Hehe... got to head out as I need to get to work. I'll be lurking from time to time. Have a nice day.
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morning folks 34 here. chance of snow tonight =)

Glad to hear nothing tropical on the horizon.
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346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P
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Quoting bollidear:
Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks


Hehe... np.
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Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks
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Currently it is 31 deg here where I live

Snow just to my north but I am expecting to get it today Lake Effect Snow Advisories are in affect
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Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?


It is related to a passing Cold Front... the one that we had pass through FL from Friday night into Saturday for CFL and Sunday on SFL. So you're basically getting the wind shift line which typically comes with a swath of gusty winds.
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Good morning...

Well since I live in a cold spot in CFL my temp is currently 37.8F. :)
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Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
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Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr

52!!!
it's 33 degrees here in northern VA
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Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr
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Okay, this is kind of wierd. Local forecast was 38 degrees, which I thought was kind of low as the NWS hourly ran about 5 degrees below what I was seeing all afternoon and evening. Temps bottomed out about 48.5 degrees and then rose slowly to the current temp of 51. Thought I might have some problems with PWS readings, but PWS at local elect utility confirms that temps are on the rise again. Mine, of course, is about 3 degrees warmer than their's, because I am on the east side of a lake and winds are under 5 mph. Just didn't expect to see temps begin to rise at 3:30 am.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31963
It's 36F here in Prairieville, Louisiana. I'm freezing. Have socks on, which is rare for me. :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Good evening everyone........burr..


yes ... burr ... I was in Sarasota this Friday - cold here too in the Keys ... bundle up
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Good evening everyone........burr..
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Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)


Agreed - BBC has a quality site
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
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333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Bureau of Meteorology - TCWC Perth

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Central Indian Ocean 90E-110E)
=============================================
The monsoon trough is active along 10S. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the monsoon trough on Wednesday or Thursday though it is unlikely that is will form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
----------------------------------
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
cool here too - i have no heat for the house but blankets will do nicely. Generally February is our coldest month.

let's have no rain on Cayman Brac for a while ....
- good eve - Rod



000
FPUS52 KKEY 162118 CCA
ZFPKEY

ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

FLZ076-170900-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

CORRECTED WIND PHRASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS NEAR
60. HIGHS 70 TO 75. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY AND COOL. HIGHS NEAR 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 65.
HIGHS 70 TO 75.
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331. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


need a new layout file..?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.