Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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357. MissNadia
4:27 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
355. pottery2
4:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good Morning.
Trinidad weather now.
RAIN. 2.5" last night and still falling.
Its feast and famine around here.......
354. wellslaw
3:52 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Cann someone plese email me the name of the charity (or link to the website) that is trying to reforest in haiti -- my email is wellslaw@rocketmail.com and i will really apprecaite it -- I'd prefer it be emailed to me then I don't have to check back thru this thread to see if someone replied -- thank you very much as I'd like to send more money and try to help out but cannot find where i sent it before ... thanks
353. stillwaiting
3:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Overcast now in E Ctrl FL, very narrow window of opportunity for 15 mile beach run this afternoon; Low tide, & if sun pops out without Tstrm, b4 the front pushes all our heat up, up, and away...

Had to work & didn't get to read blog or check how far swirl Paloma made it North - any of that weather yesterday related to remnant/interacting? bbl



quite possibly the rain yesterday morning near tallahasse..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
352. stillwaiting
3:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning everyone,

Here in SE Florida, Broward County we should get up to around 88 degrees today.. then the cold front is moving thru tonight and tomorrow and only high tomorrow around 70 degrees.. that is a real cool down.. and lows Monday morning around mid- high 40's or 50's. Now that is turn on the heat weather! I will be freezing..

Us in south florida do not do cold well !!! LOL

have a great Saturday everyone!

Gams



keep an eye out for some strong storms in your area w/that kind of instability!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
351. HIEXPRESS
3:32 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning everyone,

Here in SE Florida, Broward County we should get up to around 88 degrees today.. then the cold front is moving thru tonight and tomorrow and only high tomorrow around 70 degrees.. that is a real cool down.. and lows Monday morning around mid- high 40's or 50's. Now that is turn on the heat weather! I will be freezing..

Us in south florida do not do cold well !!! LOL

have a great Saturday everyone!

Gams


Overcast now in E Ctrl FL, very narrow window of opportunity for 15 mile beach run this afternoon; Low tide, & if sun pops out without Tstrm, b4 the front pushes all our heat up, up, and away...

Had to work & didn't get to read blog or check how far swirl Paloma made it North - any of that weather yesterday related to remnant/interacting? bbl
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
350. ftpiercecane
3:19 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
gm all
maybe go for a little pre-front snookin'

tried getting some snook action last night on live mullet, just some promising hits but no takers, have to try it again tonight. when that front passes and we get the cold weather it will be buck tail hawk time for deeper water action.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
349. RobDaHood
3:18 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Haven't had enough coffee this AM to type accurately, so Will be back later!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31951
348. MissNadia
3:15 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
343. MissNadia

Thanks! Thought you were nearer the coast but not sure where. Your name just instantly popped into my head when I saw the posts about the tornado reports.

I am on the coast 10 miles N.E. of Wilmington
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
347. RobDaHood
3:08 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
343. MissNadia

Thanks! Thought you were nearer the coast but not sure where. Your name just instantly popped into my head when I saw the posts about the tornado reports.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31951
346. theshepherd
3:07 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
341 ts
get ya a harley, you'll get some use then.
45f at 90% and overcast is cold in the swamp.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
345. seflagamma
3:06 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good morning everyone,

Here in SE Florida, Broward County we should get up to around 88 degrees today.. then the cold front is moving thru tonight and tomorrow and only high tomorrow around 70 degrees.. that is a real cool down.. and lows Monday morning around mid- high 40's or 50's. Now that is turn on the heat weather! I will be freezing..

Us in south florida do not do cold well !!! LOL

have a great Saturday everyone!

Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
344. RobDaHood
3:04 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
341. TampaSpin

Paid 600 dollars for the dam thing

Wow, what a devoted fan! - LOL - Funny cause I just left a message on your blog about leather jackets...

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31951
343. MissNadia
3:04 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Glad to see MissNadia is okay, hope others in the NC will check in.

Hi Rob,
Nothing here last night ,all the bad stuff was about 100 miles inland along I-95
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
342. TampaSpin
3:04 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Gotta run! You all have a great day and weekend. Stay safe as some areas could turn severe in South Florida and East Coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
341. TampaSpin
3:01 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Im going to the Bucs game tomorrow .......wow have to break out the Bucs Turtle neck and wear my Bucs Leather Jacket i seldom get to wear.....Paid 600 dollars for the dam thing that just sits in the closet...what a fool...lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
340. RobDaHood
3:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Glad to see MissNadia is okay, hope others in the NC will check in.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31951
339. hurricanemaniac123
3:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
My low on tuesday is 23 degrees!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
338. RobDaHood
2:59 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
335. TampaSpin

...Lows in the 30s to upper 40s...

Definitely not "Why we live here weather!"
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31951
337. billy305
2:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
That is not cold

that is where I will be for my highs next week
For You it's not
Your used to that at this time of year....
Many Florida residents aren't though.....
336. Thundercloud01221991
2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
That is not cold

that is where I will be for my highs next week
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
335. TampaSpin
2:48 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Not too cold?

Florida panhandle....

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 34 near the coast... 28 to 32 inland.


I hear ya IKE.....this is cold for us this time of year in Tampa. Some can speak for themselves.....lol......

Monday Night through Thursday in Tampa
Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s to upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
334. theshepherd
2:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
gm all
maybe go for a little pre-front snookin'
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
333. IKE
2:41 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:
Florida is going to have nice fall weather this week, not too cold but pleasant.


Not too cold?

Florida panhandle....

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 34 near the coast... 28 to 32 inland.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
332. billy305
2:39 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Down here in South Florida their forecasting highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the upper 40s all throughout the week!
331. TampaSpin
2:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Statement as of 8:08 am EST on November 15, 2008


... Record high minimum temperature tied at Saint Petersburg
yesterday...

A record high minimum temperature of 71 degrees was tied at the
Albert Whitted Airport in Saint Petersburg Friday November 14th
2008. This record was previously set in 1985.


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
330. stillwaiting
2:34 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
my low temp for tues morning here in Sarasota,FL is 40 degrees!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
329. TampaSpin
2:33 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:
Florida is going to have nice fall weather this week, not too cold but pleasant.


Tampa is forecast to have lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's most of the week. For most Tampa residents that would be considered cold.....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
328. Orcasystems
2:23 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good morning all.. cold here :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
327. hurricaneman123
2:23 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
look's like hurricane season is over in the atlantic
Member Since: November 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
326. sporteguy03
2:19 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Florida is going to have nice fall weather this week, not too cold but pleasant.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
325. TampaSpin
2:19 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
I just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
324. stillwaiting
2:02 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:
maybe some isolated Tornadic storms near eastern SC,NC and VA tommorow afternoon though,that area should be in a low risk tornado threat,IMO....


revise that to moderate risk thru this evening....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
323. stillwaiting
1:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
dang the jetstream is dropping down far. Even in the Pacific.


the jet stream along the pacific is up in canada????,thats one of the reasons for the wildfires in CA,the dominating high east of the region is building strong east winds!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
322. stillwaiting
1:23 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
surfmom:no good waves yet,actually looks more meager than yesterday,tried some wade fishing,too cold and the waves actually were waist high and me no likey!!!!,oh and not even a nibble,I think I'll hit the snapper spot for a couple hrs before the front comes thru,usually great fishing pre-front,if I catch alot,you want some????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
321. stillwaiting
1:12 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Winter Weather Advisory for 3inches of snow in Western North Carolina.

Tornado Watch for Eastern North Carolina.



good morning fellow wunderbloggers,I see my forcast for tornadic activity along eastern SC,NC and virgina is coming thru,the way the jet stream is set up this should continue up the coast possibly north thru the jersey shore this evening!!!,here in SRq expecting the usual: a few rain showers,a wind shift and some gusty NW winds but no severe,maybe South FL could get a isolated severe T-storm,but NO widespreaed heavy rain for us in FL!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
320. FLWeatherFreak91
1:11 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
dang the jetstream is dropping down far. Even in the Pacific.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
319. TampaSpin
1:03 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good Morning everyone.......looks like some bad weather with sad results......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
318. NorthxCakalaky
12:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
316. surfmom 12:36 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
yikes -- some nasty weather in NC -- never thought they got Tornadoes there... the things I learn here
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Most of the tornadoes in the state hit Eastern North Carolina and along the coast.

Western N.C is suspose to get 3inches of snow tonight into tomarow! Where I live im not under the winter weather advisory, just calling for flurries and wind gusts to 35.
317. surfmom
12:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Oh well MissNadia - hopefully in a day or two. Got very humid conditions here this AM -- Going to be hosing those horses down between chukkers trying to keep them cool. Hard to beleive a cold front will be coming through.

Got to check the local weather, "I can feel change in the air" Was hoping to catch more waves this afternoon.....maybe not

Not much more time here -- got to hit the road, and get the horses together for a game.

Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
316. surfmom
12:36 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
yikes -- some nasty weather in NC -- never thought they got Tornadoes there... the things I learn here
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
315. MissNadia
12:35 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good Morning...no fishing today!

Frying Pan Tower
NDBC - Station 41013 Observations
Station 41013
November 15, 2008 6:50 am EST
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Wind Direction: SSW (210°)
Wind Speed: 31 knots
Wind Gust: 37 knots
Significant Wave Height: 8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in (1007.7 mb)
Air Temperature: 71°F (21.9°C)
Water Temperature: 75°F (23.8°C)
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
313. NorthxCakalaky
11:56 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
11/15/2008 0310 am

Kenly, Johnston County.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


*** 1 fatal *** at least 10 homes have been severely
damaged to destroyed in the Kenly area near the
intersection of Scott Road and bridgers Road. Cars have
been overturned. Injuries and one fatality are also being
reported. Kenly has been closed to all traffic.
-Weatherunderground

Wilson, NC -- Emergency officials say two people are dead, and one is missing after early morning storms strike the Wilson and Kenly areas.

A possible tornado moved through central North Carolina early Saturday morning, damaging homes and leaving a trail of debris.

The National Weather Service issued several tornado warnings for Johnston, Wilson and Nash counties between 2:00 am and 4:00 am.

Law enforcement reports damage to homes and debris in the roads in several locations. The towns of Lucama, Elm City and Wilson have some damage, including damage to homes.

No other injuries have been reported at this time, but rescue operations were underway in Johnston County, just south of Smithfield.


Associated Press/ National Weather Service


312. NorthxCakalaky
11:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
Deadly tornadoes went through North Carolina this morning causing damage.People were still asleep as they passed.



Statement as of 5:20 am EST on November 15, 2008


... Survey crews to investigate damage...

National Weather Service staff members will investigate tornado
damage today across the sandhills and coastal plain. Preliminary
information is expected to be available by late this afternoon.





311. NorthxCakalaky
11:44 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
Winter Weather Advisory for 3inches of snow in Western North Carolina.

Tornado Watch for Eastern North Carolina.
310. surfmom
11:43 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
Good Morning ! Been up for hours LOL - setting down here w/a cup of coffee and watching the dawn break through the night.

Still got a great buzz on from surfing yesterday, weather looks a bit hot for the horses playing Polo (Centi in particular) today -- here in SWFL.

Got to wake young buck, back in a bit!

Morning RTLESNK :) & Hades too!!!! : )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
309. RTLSNK
11:07 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
OK, the world is asleep, me too, BBL.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20929
308. RTLSNK
10:38 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
306 - Hades - You're up early, Sterling 39 F.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20929
307. RTLSNK
10:18 AM GMT on November 15, 2008
Goodmorning Wunderworld, 67 F this morning in Macon, Ga, 84% wet air, rain line approaching from the west, seems to be moving pretty fast, time for some coffee.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20929

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.