Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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Bonedog - LOL - it's nice to be a BIG boy!! Do love that spray and the sound of it when it peels off the board ---ahhhhh
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
gotcha Orca at 13:45utc someone forgot the caffene
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Tampa,
That temperature map,doesn't have any red,orange or yellow,thats chilly


Not many Novemeber days that look like that....Where is global warming.....lmao
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
37 - Bonedog - I am always impressed when you and Surfmom talk about surfing. I used to dive off the Florida keys, always carried two 45cal bang sticks, two small CO2 steel dart pistols, Navy Seal Team knife on my right calf, Buck paratrooper knife backup on my left calf, and special holster for extra darts on my belt. I was checking out a wreck off the keys one day when a large morray eel poked his head out, took one look at me, opened his mouth and grinned at me, instantly my thought was, I don't have near enough toys on me to be in his neighborhood!!!
Quoting RTLSNK:




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37 - Bonedog - I am always impressed when you and Surfmom talk about surfing. I used to dive off the Florida keys, always carried two 45cal bang sticks, two small CO2 steel dart pistols, Navy Seal Team knife on my right calf, Buck paratrooper knife backup on my left calf, and special holster for extra darts on my belt. I was checking out a wreck off the keys one day when a large morray eel poked his head out, took one look at me, opened his mouth and grinned at me, instantly my thought was, I don't have near enough toys on me to be in his neighborhood!!!

 
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Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20852
last update till I get to work
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
conditons were not great when I drove out this early AM, got a sore knee (thanks to a horse) so I'm not going to just ride junk. Going to do some domestics and yard work and check the beach later.

Stillwaiting I looked rather early this AM -- can you see anything out your window????
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
gotcha surfmom =)

3 to 5 winds under 15 =)

me 5 to 10 winds offshore 15+ love getting the spray off the back of the waves =) also love the way a stiff offshore holds the lip a little longer for a clean drop in

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Quoting Bonedog:
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
13/2345 UTC 16.7N 46.4W TOO WEAK 99L
13/1745 UTC 20.6N 64.3W TOO WEAK 95L


yea that is weird? typo maybe


I bet someone got the N & the S mixed up
I bet it is at 16.7S 46.4E, that would tie in closer to 99S
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Bonedog:
5 to 8 is my kind of size =) stillwaiting your probably right about surfmom. She like the waves 3 to 5 if I am not mistaken.

And yes we do ride the rips out, saves us from excessive paddeling and geting waves on the head.
You know me well Bondedog!!! -No worries 'bout me, if the wind is over 15mph - I'm on the beach watching. I'll never forget the broken nose, and bleeding like bait chum in the water.

Lessons are repeated until learned, and that is one lesson I am NOT repeating
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Good Morning ALL - SWFL GOMEX report - Hummmmm
Today present conditions - SRQ - small weak knee high swell filling in, Tide is very LOW - winds out of the SE - Slim chance of catching surf today - maybe the longboard/Fish. Tomorrow - stronger SW/W winds cranking it up b/4 the front HITS late Saturday PM - Sunday Big Blow NW Coldfronts spots, late afternoon Sunday maybe best as the high moves in and the wind is forecast to back down. Tuesday front is still expected with 2ftrs.
Full Moon is on this as well as strong winds -- makes for strong currents and rip -- Be Safe
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
13/2345 UTC 16.7N 46.4W TOO WEAK 99L
13/1745 UTC 20.6N 64.3W TOO WEAK 95L


yea that is weird? typo maybe
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Quoting 786:
Orca? how is 16.7N 46.4W in the Southern hemisphere?

the date is 13/2345 UTC so yesterday where do you c 2009?

TIA


Go here

Then look on the left hand side.. and look at 99S
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Going to have to "Minimize" you folks for a while and do some work...Enjoy your morning and I'll check in throughout the day.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
Orca:

Is that a big mushroom cloud that is overtaking your neck of the woods?
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weather for that temp map
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35. fireflymom
...Some are reportedly burning their furniture to stay warm

Wow, I didn't know that happened in this country anymore...Sobering.

Thank you for the info.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
41. 786
Orca? how is 16.7N 46.4W in the Southern hemisphere?

the date is 13/2345 UTC so yesterday where do you c 2009?

TIA
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even colder for wednesday night. Looks like the whole country will be either in the freezer or at least the refrigerator
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Hey,Tampa,
That temperature map,doesn't have any red,orange or yellow,thats chilly
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33. RTLSNK
Know what you mean...Of course, she'll be wanting to wear her "hat" and watch the TV in the closet all the time now...precious.

34. stillwaiting
Yeah, I was thinking that was a little more bouy rocking than she had in mind. Hopefully she'll get a day or two of fun out of it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
5 to 8 is my kind of size =) stillwaiting your probably right about surfmom. She like the waves 3 to 5 if I am not mistaken.

And yes we do ride the rips out, saves us from excessive paddeling and geting waves on the head.
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I updated my blog to include not only the Tropics but, a section on Severe and Winter Weather with current graphics along with current Stock Market Summary.

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
It is going to be a tough winter for some indeed. Thought I would share this from a friend in North Dakota.


"A blizzard hit Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, in South Dakota, last Wednesday and Thursday and has knocked out the power to thousands. 10 and 20 foot drifts prevent many from leaving their homes, and food and firewood are running low. Some are reportedly burning their furniture to stay warm.

Blankets, warm clothing, food (as well as fuel, water, kerosene lamps and propane) are desperately needed. For anyone in the area who wants to help, go to the Porcupine School, or call 605-867-1111. Alternately, go to http://nativeprogress.org or http://nativeamericanrights.wordpress.com/. Send warm clothes to: Republic of Lakotah P.O. Box 99 Porcupine, SD 57772.

A week has already gone by; do something today, if you can! It could be three to seven days MORE before power is restored. "
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Quoting RobDaHood:
From the 5am Hazardous Weather Outlook, Ruskin Office:

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

Surfmom best be careful out there...


Those sized waves sound too big for surfmom,I don't think she'll like hearing that,allthough surfers usually ride the riptides out!!!!!maybe by sunday she'll have surfable waves for her size.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
25 - Pottery - everything counts!

20 - Thanks Rob, sometimes you can find humor in even scary situations, there we were, grandpa(me), grandma, daddy, mommy(daughter), and little 2 yr old granddaughter Sarah(angel), all on the walk-in closet floor in our pjs, motorcycle helmets, no coffee, wrapped in heavy quilts, and the little angel is laughing and giggling at the "pretty colors" on the battery operated TV showing the doppler radar screen. You should have seen the smiles on the adults start showing up!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20852
Quoting 786:
13/2345 UTC 16.7N 46.4W TOO WEAK 99L

Why is the Navy site showing a 99L, what happened to 96-98L? maybe a dyslexic typo


Its in the Southern Hemisphere... and under 2009.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Monday 7am forecast Temps......burrrrrr.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Orca I made mention of it on the old blog about the system north of Panama.
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29. 786
13/2345 UTC 16.7N 46.4W TOO WEAK 99L

Why is the Navy site showing a 99L, what happened to 96-98L? maybe a dyslexic typo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the 5am Hazardous Weather Outlook, Ruskin Office:

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

Surfmom best be careful out there...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
I wonder what kind of a night Ike (Defuniak Springs) had.
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RTLSNK. I have never experiencer a tornado. Was close to a small waterspout once. Does that count ? LOL

I am out until later. Life calls, and I must obey.
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Me too, getting thrown out of bed at 415 by Thunder coming from your back yard and hearing the tornado siren from two blocks away before I've had my two cups of coffee to become semi-human is not a pretty sight. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20852
Has anyone noticed that most of the models still show a system developing in the Southern Caribbean?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
RTLSNK. Nothing so exciting as that.
Obscured by cloud is the meaning there.
I am at 11n 61w. Trinidad. Rains on the way.
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Quoting pottery:
LOL Orca. But then, you have been obscure for a long time . Welcome to winter. heheheh
How are things with you Rob ??


Sunny and clear and lots of work, so I guess I shouldn't complain.

RTLSNK - Glad to see that storm didn't get ya
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
CRS, yeah. You may still get rain, but not like what was anticipated.
The tent-dwellers will be glad.
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Quoting Bonedog:
hope you folks in the panhandle have your waders ready.



I think I will quit whining about the rain here... a foot.. sheesh
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
7 - Pottery - obscure - 1. adj - dark and gloomy - sounds mystical and dubious. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20852
LOL Orca. But then, you have been obscure for a long time . Welcome to winter. heheheh
How are things with you Rob ??
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hope you folks in the panhandle have your waders ready.

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cant wait to read the blogs next week.

agree the 212 and winter ones are of big interest for me.
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Quoting pottery:
Morning Orca.
Looks like I am about to be obscured.....


Did you look at the last picture.. where I am ??
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting pottery:
...
Looks like I am about to be obscured.....


What an interesting statement...LOL...Is that worse than being banned?

Morning everyone, some of you got up pretty early today.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
Quoting pottery:
Morning Orca.
Looks like I am about to be obscured.....

Morning... I thought of you when I lookes at Sat info this am... realizing you have nastier looking wx headed your way than I do.
CRS
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Just checking in and to my surprise, a new blog. Has anyone made any comments on the circulation off of the SW texas coast. The Water Temp is probably not warm enough, and still have the upper level winds.
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Morning Orca.
Looks like I am about to be obscured.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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