Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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mornin' pot
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sugarsand probably because the aircfart is a small one. Doing a quick search on the net ASA only has a fleet of small puddle jumpers.

As for shipping the dive gear. I dont think there are any resrictions other then the tanks being empty. I remeber when I was a bagged handler for continental we used to have tons of scuba gear go through, all the tanks had a tag on them saying empty that was about it

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105. beell
Hey Sully,
Check out the jet streak over Montana-197 knots at 280mb, 130 at 400mb! Strong!
Winter has indeed arrived.

Great Falls, Montana 12Z Sounding
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Hi again. Its a lunch-time look-in.
Squalls and showers here now. Expecting some more through tomorrow and beyond. It's good !
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KWscuba girl You live in Key West? I have a question. We are flying down in a week and ASA Delta allows only one checked bag. Therefore, we are having to ship the dive gear. What's up with that, do you know? I've never flown in, usually come by ship or drive.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
97 - KWscubagirl - fantastic photos, gee, your green eel doesn't look near as nasty with his mouth closed, LOL, I was impressed how close you were to that really big fish with the large fin on top hiding under the overhang. Notice how I didn't use the "S" word.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21131
Quoting KWscubagirl:


I like to go armed with my camera ;)

Link


Nice, thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32224
97. KWscubagirl

awsome shots KW!!
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no problem surfmom ;) I always remind myself that we are in their home not the other way around.

closets I have been to the toothy ones
1) NJ- bull came into the lineup about 4 surfers down, I walked on water back tot he beach

2) Bahamas- reef sharks came around while on a dive off a reef in 30 feet. Not as scared but nervous

3) Venice- Wade fishing by Sharky's, noticed the fin about 10 feet out. Just shrugged it off but got out of the water.
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76 - fireflymom - ROFL - did not know who Denny Crane was, had to Google him to find out, read the Wiki article, it was huge, what a character, really, no resemblance, can truthfully say I have never, ever, owned a tranqilizer gun!!! hahaha
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21131
Quoting RTLSNK:
37 - Bonedog - I am always impressed when you and Surfmom talk about surfing. I used to dive off the Florida keys, always carried two 45cal bang sticks, two small CO2 steel dart pistols, Navy Seal Team knife on my right calf, Buck paratrooper knife backup on my left calf, and special holster for extra darts on my belt. I was checking out a wreck off the keys one day when a large morray eel poked his head out, took one look at me, opened his mouth and grinned at me, instantly my thought was, I don't have near enough toys on me to be in his neighborhood!!!


I like to go armed with my camera ;)

Link
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Ignorance is bliss - GULP - LOL I'm off for a bit
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Darn it, I go into work mode for an hour and miss all the fun (again)!

Living in FL all my life, and having had many close encounters of the "toothy" kind, you just try not to think about it, but stay alert. Not a surfer, but a lot of diving, snorkeling. If we had a helecopter view of what was out there on any particular day, we'd probably just stay on the beach...

Oh, and surfmom, the bling..maybe not such a good idea...there's a reason they put all that flashy chrome and gold on fishing lures...LOL...I've noticed in the keys that it does seem to draw attention.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32224
sulli that would be amazing! 3 for 3 dont remember that ever happening up here
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Hi CCHS
Thanks bonedog, sending that over to my boys, good reminder for my commercial diver one - who tends to be fearless
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Quoting surfmom:
Stillwaiting - was that big brown boy by the Pass or beach access 8 or 9?? We know they are always in the pass...but???


strait out 7 about 200 ft to the right,in waist deep water(approx 3ft),I also had about 8 bait fish in my pocket,probably not a good idea,now that I think about it!!!..lol...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Morning All,
Hum , it looks to me like 95l is waking up????
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If current model trends hold it'll be cold enough to support any snowpack that manages to be laid down between Monday and Thanksgiving.

Since I;ve already had a white halloween and may now be looking at a white thanksgiving, could I possibly go 3-for-3 and get a white christmas too? That would be the first time I could ever remember that happening.
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took the image down and made it a link for you surfmom ;)
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Just wanted to let everyone know that I have updated the CCHS WEATHER CENTER site, including the major cold blast getting ready to sweep through Florida and the dying Atlantic Hurricane season. Feel free to leave comments or evn join my site for email updates and alerts.
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morning Sulli yes it is =)
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Bonedog - that is not a pretty picture-- I'd like to think they were following the the Tarpon run...seems to be a memory of that .....probably put that one on delete
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Good morning, Bonedog!

Looks like winter's on its way!
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Stillwaiting - was that big brown boy by the Pass or beach access 8 or 9?? We know they are always in the pass...but???
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74RTLESNK _ Big smile LOL
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surfmom:yea I've been having a little numbness due to the cooler water temps in the last 2weeks,and have not been "wade fishing" everyday like I usually do,the "boys" just can't handle that cold of water temps,so I've been fishing my "snapper spot" on big pass lately...oh yea the wind makes that cold water feel 3X as cold!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Dont know when the photo was taken surfmom I just remember it on Fox news and the net. Back when the bathers were being attacked a few years ago.

Link


croped image of the one I seen, best I could do on short notice =)
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Oh yea Bonedog - happened this past trip - baitfish & mullet were running... seems the Jack herd them into the corners of the Jetties, then...bum bum bummm the sharks come in....later after my experience I went over to the pier on the opposite side of the inlet where the fishermen fish and to watch a guy pull a BIG Bull shark out of the water (and of course throw him back in) Two in one day YIKES!!!. The guys wre still out, but they were surfing the outside, and it was too big for me... the inside break had the bait fish & I'm sure the larger predator. Ftpiercecane, gave me the above explanation.... I scored to days out of the five for very brief nerve racking surf..... I was sooo happy to come home to Lady of the Gulf.
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
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Select a region below...
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RE: 99S.... ? time to add a new "region" ? off Brazil
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good se wind here and a bit of a wind swell, but I'm sure we will see those elephants on the horizon (gulfstream) monday. then chunky ne ground swell mix with wind swell for the up coming week
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how cold will it get in west palm beach low 40 s will someone please answer that
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"37 - Bonedog - I am always impressed when you and Surfmom talk about surfing. I used to dive off the Florida keys, always carried two 45cal bang sticks, two small CO2 steel dart pistols, Navy Seal Team knife on my right calf, Buck paratrooper knife backup on my left calf, and special holster for extra darts on my belt. I was checking out a wreck off the keys one day when a large morray eel poked his head out, took one look at me, opened his mouth and grinned at me, instantly my thought was, I don't have near enough toys on me to be in his neighborhood!!!"
Sounds like Denny Crane...LOL
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manatee's kick a$$ too!!!!I see them often while fishing(some will actually approach you if your within 5-10 feet from !!)one of gods most gentle and kind animals...
I've also seen fins and have had a 5 foot brown shark approach me(not even 2 months ago) inqusitive while waiding fishing on the beach here in Srq...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
67 - Surfmon - it helped but being 6 ft tall I still had to add some weights. I think the guys that followed me were thinking of the ocean version of the old grizzly bear joke, we don't have to out swim the shark, we just have to outswim that guy! LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21131
Yes I see and feel that Stillwaiting -- it's that "edgy weather is coming in feeling today" - I want to get wet... but this will be a cautious wait and see. Brain and body don't work as fast in the cold too... as well as my cranky knee. Can't get hurt with kid playing so much Polo and needing these old bones to help grooming, working horses and the like. I wish I was bionic.
Or lived in tropic waters like Trinidad --NO WETSUITS EVER!!!! nirvana
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Bonedog - was that during the tarpon run? I just always feel so safe in the gulf waters... the Keyes -- not so, I have issues with the 'cuda-- they target me I swear , but then sometimes I ask for it with all my bling, bling
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surfmom:ankle to knee high waves,nothing special,however the low fast moving clouds and winds out of the SSE indicate some strong weather to/from the NNW in the next 24hrs!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
This time of year, dive boats don't run here in the gulf in NW FL. Divers head up to Vortex Springs, near Ponce de Leon. Incredible springs, a bit cool, but wetsuits take care of that. My son is going up Sunday to assist with a "rescue" class on Sunday. Cols front moving in Sat eve. COLD!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
67. surfmom

wow surfmom didnt know you had a close encounter of the toothy kind.

yea the dolphins are a much better experience
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Fireflymom is so correct about this. I had no clue till my friend brought me back the pictures...........rest assured everything you send will be used.....especially clothes for the kids& little ones who are not in a position to help themselves out of what they have been born into.

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64RTLESNK -Bling, bling With all that heavy metal on you were lucky you could move and not sink. I too have my fears, I am always amazed how freely my sons move through the water - with respect but NO fear.

My recent first time encounter with a Big Fin lurking in the water -- really freaked me. Just hearing that kid say to me..."stay calm, but look over there.... " and then seeing that fin ---

But then there are those moments of playing with dolphins and manatees... much better movie
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You are Welcome Surfmom, the Browncoats sent that one to me. A difficult year for many and the shoes and clothing will help more than most of us realize.
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Fireflymom - thanks for the post regarding the Lakota - Just massed e-mailed that out. I know, via a friend that visits that reservation, there is serious, serious poverty there. Lots of reasons why -- but that is not the issue now. Local running club collects slightly used runningshoes and sends them box loads every year. I forwarded this on to them as well as two friends of mine connected to the Seminoles here, and a few other tribes -- she's a great networker. so thanks for that post! FYI anyone can send used clothing - clean and in good conditions as well as running shoes (barely worn - a favorite!!) to the above address. FIREFLYMOM big thanks for that post.!!!!!
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Yeah, I know I did look pretty silly in that outfit, but the funny thing was I always had a bunch of other divers that I didn't really know that well who always seemed to stay close to me when we dived! hahaha
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21131
Later Tampa
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Gotta run everyone have a great day.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
how cold will it get in west palm beach lower 40
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LOL surfmom. Not a BIG boy anymore though, hardly get off the sand anymore. In my hayday 10 foot sets were lovely but I actually enjoyed the 5 foot days more.

Above 10 foot enjoyment is gone and replaced with survival and adrenaline. You actually get out of the water and collapse, well me anyways.
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54. RTLSNK

LOL, sounds like with that much gear you dont need your weight belt!

when I surf down in florida I usually have a knife on my ankle. Up here in Jersey dont have to worry about them until Aug/Sep when the waters warm.

In the winter the species up here usually hold to the deeper waters, not saying an errent wont come by but its less likely. GOM spooks the hell out of me though, waters just to warm too damn long LOL that and the shot of a thousand sharks just off the surf a year or two ago made me reconsider my sunrise sets.
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what the heck just happened? I mispelled eel and tried to correct it, I swear I never hit the quote button!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21131
Bonedog - LOL - it's nice to be a BIG boy!! Do love that spray and the sound of it when it peels off the board ---ahhhhh
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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