Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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ughhh!

Noticed a lot of white fluffy stuff building overhead, checked forecast for 8pm and 50% sky cover. 48% of that will probably be between me and the shuttle. Neverfails, clear all week then clouds up for launch time.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
05B looks pretty damn impressive. I'll be watching this thing all the way to landfall.
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155. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like near a 1/2 inch an hr.
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154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The IMD is advicing Andhra Pradesh that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
153. Skyepony (Mod)
Hades~ It may very well be but not likely a well organized one yet. Do you think the refectivity is right? Hadn't had a chance to check rainrates.
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152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Skypony: It's likely a cyclonic storm right now.. the India Meteorological Department information is still from 900 AM UTC. (about 7 hours old)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
151. Skyepony (Mod)
Indian Ocean
05B Either someone needs to turn down the satalite or this is the nastiest Depression I have ever seen.


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hmmm....
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/tropical.html

has just put their "floater" on 95L

and we have "one" image from Dom Rep radar but no loop working yet.

But I see
TWO
100 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

drops even the yellow circle

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Have to get going too, BBL.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22186
Bonedog,

I gotta leave in a few minutes, but just have to ask this. RE the Bogata bag, did all your coworkers drop what they were doing and run over to sniff you to make sure you were OK?

oops! might have missed you, have a good weekend!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
well folks TGIF. time for the weekend for me. See you all monday :)
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145. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Cyclonic Storm from their radar now.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
144. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Southern Coast of Negros Oriental.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
==============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 9.3ºN 123.6ºE or vicinity of Siquijor Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
--------------
1.Southern Negros
2.Southern Cebu
3.Bohol
4.Siquijor

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.Zamboanga del Norte
2.Misamis Occidental
3.Camiguin Island

Public Warning Signal number 1 elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 1 as well as the provinces of Eastern Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
THE SHEPARD-Where did you catch snook?Looks good for the dinner table.
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142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

DEEP DEPRESSION BOB06-2008
13.5ºN 84.5ºE - 30 knots 1002 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning #2 - Public Bulletin Update (0900z 14Nov)
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE ALERT FOR ANDHRA PARDESH COAST

At 14:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and lay centered over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal near 13.5N 84.5E or about 450 kms east-northeast of Chennai and 470 kms southeast of Machilipatnam, India. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direcation and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam by tomorrow night.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
I hear ya Rob. Those case are virtually indestructable.

Me I use a water proof mountain dufflebag just for cloths though, everything else is carried on.
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Could be,RT
For me it started with Uncle Johnny's old mule Charlie back in 58. lol
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133. Bonedog

Got used to it during my musician days. Hard sides, lots of padding, and easily to spot.

I've heard lots of horror stories, but never had any problems myself. I avoid connecting flights like the plague, and not just because of luggage.

134. pottery WOW!
135. Bonedog Double WOW!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
I'm out....
backroads need for speed 8]




















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125 - theshepherd - I know that phrase, started with a 1969 kick start Sportster, trying to get the magneto into the right spot in the winter time was always an exciting experience.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22186
Ike,
Come out of lurking what is your thoughts on the upcoming Winter GFS forecasts?
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LOL pottery yea that would do it.

I had some experiences myself.

I was working international inbound flight from Bogota. A bag jammed on the conveyor so it wa smy turn to clear the snag. I grab the bag and gave it a good pull BAM I turn into the pillsbury doughboy. Needless to say Customs went apecrap and I spend a few days in the hospital.

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I know what you mean Bone. I was a Cargo agent in another time too. BOAC (as it was, then) Air Canada, KLM and others.
I remember a piece of baggage that was on an aircraft for MONTHS, because no one could be bothered to take it off and do the re-rout thing. Its probably sold with the aircraft for scrap, years later.
Then there was the time that a 15 foot long anaconda managed to get out of his packaging, from Guyana to somewhere. Opened the cargo door and nearly shat...........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
at least your using a hardcase Rob some dont.

The biggest concern is hoping your luggage makes it. Especially worrisome on connecting flights
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The process to begin loading Endeavour's 15-story fuel tank with super-cold liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellant began at about 10:40 a.m. EST (1340 GMT). More than 520,000 gallons of propellant will be loaded into Endeavour%u2019s external tank.

7:47 and counting
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128. Bonedog

LOL - anything I can't live without goes in carry on...anything else I HAVE to take goes in an ATA case
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
its funny poterry but sadly true
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Bone, 128.
LMAO there.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
110. CaicosRetiredSailor

thats why I either ship my luggage or just do carry on LOL

favorite line I heard on the ramp...

fragile- wow this guy fragile (fra-gel-lay) ships alot of stuff doesn't he.

or

this end up stickers- hey guys which way is the arrow supposed to point? response: twords the plane


yes these are some of the men and women that handle your luggage =/
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Gotta go do some WORK, imagine that, but TGIF! Have a good one!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
124. RTLSNK
ROFLMAO

Playtime over, back to work...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
10-4 pot
Just like a horse, one end bites and the other end kicks ;>)
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113 - Rob - I know the feeling, whats crazy is even as a salty old dog now, I would go under again, my son is a certified dive instructor and was always trying to get me to go spear fishing with him. Dumb things would automaticly come out of my mouth - spear, spear into fish, blood from fish, sharks "smell" blood, swim towards blood at hyperspeed, find wonderful smell in catch bag hanging from your belt, dumb idea. He would say, Dad, you used to jump out of planes at 5,000 feet. I'd say yes, no sharks.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22186
Hey Rob! Yep, the rental stuff is typically well-abused and it's not "your" stuff. We worry about who "got Sick" in the reg! LOL!!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
AH, sounds good Sheph. Remember, under the influence, that the carburettor goes back on, on the intake side,,,,,
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL sugar I hear ya. EYE is 4,801 feet long which is kinda short.

I figure we don't need alotta clothes in the Keys, but wanted to check the gear. May be too chilly to dive ala natural! SO will ship the gear UPS and check one bag.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
111. sugarsand

he buys the cadillac quality

I can understand, when you get used to "top shelf" stuff it's annoying to go back to basics. (applies to everything from diving gear to rum)

Myself, I'm always more comfortable using stuff that I'm familiar with and know is well maintained and in good working order and fits me well. Rather concentrate on the dive than the gear.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
LOL sugar I hear ya. EYE is 4,801 feet long which is kinda short.
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Over the years, many people have asked me questions regarding weather. Well, now this will be a new feature on my site where you ask the questions and I give you the answers as best I can. If you have any weather-related questions that you would like to get an easy-to-understand answer to, just send me a message here and I will try and use as many questions in a new blog feature on my site called Ask the CCHS Weather Center. I will host this feature on my site every Friday, so send in the questions.
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109 pot
All is well.
Good day to drink rum and tinker on the Harley.
Still shopping for a good price on balsa wood for surfboard project.
How is the Island of the Spices these days?
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Pottery, I've conjured up a few "chicken things" for dinner myself! LOL!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Hi Sugar. Last night's remains. A sort of chicken thing, with pimentos and rice. Filled a large void.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
102. RTLSNK

hehe...I've rarely seen them with mouth closed...They don't like me. Used to go to keys with a friend during lobster season every year. He would just blindly shove his arm down any hole feeling for lobster. I love lobster, but not that much!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
Hi Pottery, what's for lunch?
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Bonedog We flew to Dallas on ASA and no bag restrictions. Someone said its' because EYE runway is short? We are not taking tanks. Those we can rent along with weights. My 16 year old refuses to use rental stuff other than that. Of course, he buys the cadillac quality working in a dive shop and all.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
106. Bonedog... I remeber when I was a bagged handler

aha... now I understand missing baggage :) heheh
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Hi Sheph. How is life, the universe and everything?

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
mornin' pot
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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