Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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Hi blog,

Having spent the past 18 months living in Grand Cayman - the tropical weather blogs have been an essential part of living in this part of the world.

More importantly - the posts of people like Drak, Kman, Pottery, Storm and plenty of others have been inspirational and educational.

Most of all - they have benn relevant, in what is increasingly becomming an irrelevant world.

Bloggers sometimes get too serious - remember it is only a blog - EVERYONES blog. Some may be arses - ok ARE arses. But it's a free world.

I'm returning to the UK soon, but just wanted to thank the guys who make this blog the respected hive of objetive information it is.

Sincere thanks again, you're great!

Tim

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all.
I see 95L has been placed on "ignore". Good thing too.
Had some good showers, an inch and a half in no time at all, and gusty winds from south.
Hope all is good with the launch.
I remember the very first Satellite ! We had to stay awake, as kids, until 10:30, so that we could hear the broadcast of its messages as it passed over. Of course, the message was a series of clicks and peeps and bloops, with static.
But the very thought that the sound was coming from SPACE, was a moment of awe for a 10 year old (me).
Times have changed....
One evening about a year ago, we were able to count 9 satellites passing overhead, in about 2 hours after sunset. There is a lot of stuff out there.
There is one that is visible every evening, travels south to north, that is the brightest thing in the sky for about 15 seconds. Every evening. I think it must be reflection from the solar panels attached, but I dont know for sure.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
205. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk (BOB06-2008)
23:30 PM IST November 14
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 23:30 PM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal remains practically stationary and lays near 14.5N 83.5E or 320 kms southeast of Machilipatnam and about 370 kms northeast of Chennai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada, near Machilipatnam later today.

Satellite imagery indicate further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and to the west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperatures is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. The sea surface temperatures over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam by tommorrow between the time frame 0300 and 0600 AM UTC. Forecast Dvorak Intensity in the next 24 hours is T3.5.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
204. Inyo
The fire was just a few miles to the east of where I live... it was extremely impressive and scary looking last night, unfortunately my pictures didn't come out. It didn't do anything to my apartment other than drop ash on it, but of course, others were much less lucky. It is currently ripping through our favorite hiking areas, but they will grow back.

At one point the smoke column was so dense it was showing up on weather radar!
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Is that Paloma the slot approaching Florida's big bend? lol
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Evening Surfmom.... I think most eyes are now on the shuttle launch. That's what I am watching, and it looks good for launch in about 1 hr 40 min.
CRS
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201. SSideBrac
11:12 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Just keep all the rain away from Cayman Brac & Little Cayman please
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
200. surfmom
11:06 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
189Stormdude -- Holy Moses that's alot of weather moving through
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
199. surfmom
10:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
What's happening w/the fires in California??? Been thinking about those folks.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
198. surfmom
10:54 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Beachfoxx - snitch that fish off your kid or get one.... the waves were so nice and easy today -- I kept thinking how much you would have loved it!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
197. surfmom
10:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
In briefly, I got waves and Pottery got Rain --Had a surprisingly good time -- terrific time. When I first went in it was like milking a dead cow...but then it just got better and better... and the better it got the more of the local guys showed up. There was six of out there catching this really sweet rides.... nothing this good since Dolly -- it has been a long wait. I just didn't want to stop. Gulf warmed up too! Was 68 degrees and today it was 72 degree. Didn't need a wet suit, just a neoprene rash guard. Sent the joy out to all my blog buddies --- I'm just blissed.

More waves in store -- hoping to catch some Saturday Afternoon --Sunday maybe be rough with high winds. Goodies waiting for Monday morning, with another front to follow Tuesday --- it doesn't get any better... least at this moment, right now.
Off to the kitchen ...but I got a big smile on my face!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
196. CybrTeddy
10:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
T-1:50 till the Launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24034
195. Tazmanian
10:43 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
look at this

Daniel Swain Says:

November 14th, 2008 at 10:11 am
That 6z run would bring insanely heavy rains and hurricane-force winds to CA. A very odd system, actually. There may indeed be a significant system out on day 12, but it won’t be like that


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
194. NorthxCakalaky
10:32 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Corridors of damaging winds will be the primary severe weather
threat...though a couple of tornadoes are possible with any more
persistent supercells and/or qlcs mesovorticies. This severe
weather threat appears most likely from parts of eastern Virginia/Tidewater
region southward across eastern NC into northestern SC where the strongest
instability is forecast. This threat becomes more conditional with
northward extent into the Delaware River valley due to weaker instability. Over
the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England...forecast soundings
suggest that storms will likely remain slightly elevated above a
shallow near-surface inversion. However...the potential will exist
for any stronger downdrafts to translate locally damaging winds to
the ground. Over Georgia/northern Florida...a more organized severe weather threat
will likely be limited by weakening convergence along cold front.


Given the strongly sheared and dynamically-forced character of the
synoptic pattern...higher severe weather probabilities may become
necessary in later outlooks should it become apparent that stronger
instability will develop than is currently forecast.

- Source Weatherunderground
193. NorthxCakalaky
10:24 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Any Florida golfers visiting N.C mountains prepare for a few inches of snow and gust to 40mph! - Saturday Night - ( I saw on the news a few weeks back unpredicted snow sursprised them.) - Actually from G.A I think this time.

Chance of severe weather over Eastern N.C with gusty winds that may drop isolated tornadoes in stronger thunderstorms over unstable warm areas.( Not the mountains.) This also includes some other states I believe to the south. Saturday-
192. pottery
9:22 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
In for 1 post....
Just had 1 1/2 " of good stuff, with squall winds. Nice ! @ 11n 61w
Back later
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
191. cycloone
9:07 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting hurricaneman123:
now what was this hurricane's catagory

no it wasn't Wilma it was gustav

Cat 4
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
190. DDR
8:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Stormdude77,we usually get floods in november,so from the looks of it this is the one.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1700
189. stormdude77
8:50 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
188. stormdude77
8:48 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting DDR:
Hi stormdude, hows the weather by you,its rainy here.The Gfs has us in a wet spot from now until late next week,visible and watervapor imagery seems to confirm alot of moisture headed this way.


It's been overcast here the whole day. Yep, looks like a wet week ahead, (at least), based on satellite observations.
187. DDR
8:40 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Hi stormdude, hows the weather by you,its rainy here.The Gfs has us in a wet spot from now until late next week,visible and watervapor imagery seems to confirm alot of moisture headed this way.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1700
186. hurricaneman123
8:39 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
now what was this hurricane's catagory

no it wasn't Wilma it was gustav

Member Since: November 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
185. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
oh Gustav
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
184. IKE
8:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Cold weather in the east in the 6-10 day outlook....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
183. stormdude77
8:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting hurricaneman123:
who can guess what hurricane this was



Hurricane Gustav
182. DDR
8:35 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting hurricaneman123:
who can guess what hurricane this was


Wilma?
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1700
181. SOCALm
8:32 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
winds in Irvine, CA have increased quite a bit over the past 2 hours.

the OC register has good coverage of the fires. local news panders to celebrities and their homes that are in danger.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/fire-barbara-santa-2228737-county-firefighters

80+mph gusts in the canyons early this morning.

hoping the arsonists sit this one out.
180. hurricaneman123
8:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
who can guess what hurricane this was

Member Since: November 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
179. RobDaHood
8:25 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
178. Seastep

Thanks! Will be watching, but enjoying the weekend, might even declare a holiday monday! (One of the few perks of being the boss) Right now I'm gonna stretch my legs a bit and clear off the desk for the week.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
178. Seastep
8:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Hey Rob.

Yeah. mm5-gfs has't give up on it all week and CMC has been going back and forth.

Pressures have been low in the carib this week and shear down there is forecast to be favorable starting tomorrow.

At least it's an area to watch.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
177. RobDaHood
8:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
175. Seastep

Forecast for the Carib. could get a little tricky the next few days.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk (BOB06-2008)
20:30 PM IST November 14 2008
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST

At 20:30 PM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further northwest and lays centered over west central Bay of Bengal near 14.5N 83.5E or about 320 kms southeast of Machilipatnam and about 370 km northeast of Chennai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam by tomorrow's forenoon.

3 minute sustaiend winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center.

The lowest cloud top temperature is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots around the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which is roughly runs along 18.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam by tomorrow between 0300 to 0600 AM UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
175. Seastep
8:06 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Good afternoon all.

Just popped on and out of lurk mode with that last post.

For what it's worth, ship at 12.5N/55.8W reported 1004mb... rising from 1003mb. At 18Z.

Shear's pretty hefty down there right now, but forecast to ease.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
174. RobDaHood
7:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
anyone see anything out there around 55w?
surface trough under significant shear and pretty strong upper level winds from the west. Lots of convection but think it's just disorganized thunderstorms. I can see pottery getting pretty wet if it doen't go away soon.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
172. IKE
7:37 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Come out of lurking what is your thoughts on the upcoming Winter GFS forecasts?


I'm looking forward to the colder weather.

***Now...back to lurk-mode***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
171. ftpiercecane
7:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
hopefully they continue with the launch, we can see all the way down here in my area
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
170. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

CYCLONIC STORM KHAI-MUK (BOB06-2008)
14.5ºN 83.5ºE - 35 knots 998 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning #3 Public Update (1500z 14Nov)
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST

At 20:30 PM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further northwest and lays centered over west central Bay of Bengal near 14.5N 83.5E or about 320 kms southeast of Machilipatnam and about 370 km northeast of Chennai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam by tomorrow's forenoon.

Advisory Information (1200 UTC)
======================================

Satellite imagery indicates further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intesity of the system is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid, intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and to the west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperatures is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots around the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. The sea surface temperatures over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam, India by tomorrow between 0300 to 0600 AM UTC.

Addition information issued in public tropical cyclone bulletin #8
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169. RobDaHood
7:30 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
167. conchygirl

LOL, years ago they used to send me running to the nearest window to see what blew up...now I recognize them instantly and barely notice.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
168. RobDaHood
7:27 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
165. Beachfoxx

Hey Beachfoxx!

Haven't seen you in a while except near misses. Has that mean ole Canadian Cetacean with the halo shoved down around his dorsal area been picking on you again?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
167. conchygirl
7:26 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Rob: We are all going to have a great view of the launch - night time ones are the best. Not fond of the returns in the wee hours of the morning that scare the "you know what out of you" when you are in a sound sleep! LOL
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166. RobDaHood
7:20 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
163. surfmom

GO GIRL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
165. Beachfoxx
7:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Have fun SurfMom!!!!
Quoting surfmom:
There's enough push in the gomex for me & my board - spouse is out of the office, grabbing the board and out till the kitchen reels me in. Good Afternoon to you all, I'll send the first rush of JOY to all my friends here & Bonedog gets two!!

Hope the knee cooperates - Yeeea!!!!
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164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:13 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
16 days to go
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
163. surfmom
7:12 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
There's enough push in the gomex for me & my board - spouse is out of the office, grabbing the board and out till the kitchen reels me in. Good Afternoon to you all, I'll send the first rush of JOY to all my friends here & Bonedog gets two!!

Hope the knee cooperates - Yeeea!!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
162. RobDaHood
7:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
161. vortfix

Yeah, kinda refreshing. I'm ready to count cold fronts for a while.
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160. RobDaHood
6:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Lets hope it doesn't get scrubbed!


Yeah, that was my forecast, not the cape BTW

I'm almost exactly 100 mi ssw of there, not as good as your view, but still pretty to watch a night launch when weather cooperates.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011
159. conchygirl
6:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
I see they fueled Endeavor at 1:31 so looks like, thus far, she is a go!
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158. conchygirl
6:54 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
ughhh!

Noticed a lot of white fluffy stuff building overhead, checked forecast for 8pm and 50% sky cover. 48% of that will probably be between me and the shuttle. Neverfails, clear all week then clouds up for launch time.
Lets hope it doesn't get scrubbed!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
157. RobDaHood
6:43 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
ughhh!

Noticed a lot of white fluffy stuff building overhead, checked forecast for 8pm and 50% sky cover. 48% of that will probably be between me and the shuttle. Neverfails, clear all week then clouds up for launch time.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32011

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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