Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk
0230 AM IST November 15 2008
======================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 2:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 14.5N 83.0E or 270 NM southeast of Machilipatnam and about 340 kms northeast of Chennai.

Satellite imagery indicates further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the se is Very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid, intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperature is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows no significant change. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam, India later today between 0900 AM and 1200 PM UTC. Forecast intensity T3.5 during the next 24 hours.
Hey you Cyclone, get away from the slurpy machine.
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robindahood:that rain over srq must be false echo's?????theres no rain to be found here!!!,yet,tomorrow central/south FL may get a gusty isolated severe T-storm,but overall heavy rain pops should be isolated....
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255. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk
0230 AM IST November 15 2008
======================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 2:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 14.5N 83.0E or 270 NM southeast of Machilipatnam and about 340 kms northeast of Chennai.

Satellite imagery indicates further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the se is Very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid, intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperature is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows no significant change. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam, India later today between 0900 AM and 1200 PM UTC. Forecast intensity T3.5 during the next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44488
Hi everyone. Yellow circle E of the Lesser Antilles again. Looks like disorganized showers but pressures are low. Any thoughts ?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
South Florida will be hit tomorrow with very strong storms....i would expect for some very damaging storms tomorrow if the sun gets up and heats things up before the front gets here. Spells for big time tornado outbreak with the left over energy of Paloma in the area also.....
I'm down here, it will be another nice day. We can respond tomorrow,
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Quoting RTLSNK:
242 - Hi Sugarsand, wonder how much rain the panhandle has had since this morning? Don't you just hate those little red boxes when they are over your house?

RT, yes the red boxes are not good. It has not rained all day. It actually moved in tonight.Hey,btw, your son the scuba instructor, where does he live?
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
242 - Hi Sugarsand, wonder how much rain the panhandle has had since this morning? Don't you just hate those little red boxes when they are over your house?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20502
radar here in srq is showing rain all over my viewing area the thing is,its clear as can be now,wish it would have been like this for the launch!!!
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Zep turned up sounds good! This front is going to push through and temps will drop by tomorrow. Windy forecast.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
#245
Rob..I have to put some tea bags on my eyes..take some meds and get my beauty sleep..check you another day!
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Quoting sugarsand:

We got a big t-storm about an hour ago. Raining like crazy now. I'm in the same area as Foxx.
IKE has the Zep turn'd up w/ a jib. I dont think the storms affect'n.
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Guess Desoto and Sarasota counties getting some rain. Ends just west of me. Been looking towards Canaveral all evening and watching JAX radar. Didn't even notice I almost got wet until TampaSpin got me wondering.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Cloudy..off and on rain and 71F
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Quoting RTLSNK:
231 - Tampaspin - that thing is over Beachfoxx and headed towards IKE. Hope you guys are hunkered down!

We got a big t-storm about an hour ago. Raining like crazy now. I'm in the same area as Foxx.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk (BOB06-2008)
23:30 PM IST November 14
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 23:30 PM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal remains practically stationary and lays near 14.5N 83.5E or 320 kms southeast of Machilipatnam and about 370 kms northeast of Chennai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada, near Machilipatnam later today.

Satellite imagery indicate further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and to the west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperatures is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. The sea surface temperatures over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam by tommorrow between the time frame 0300 and 0600 AM UTC. Forecast Dvorak Intensity in the next 24 hours is T3.5.
Would you be like'ing musterd on your Cyclone?
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Quoting MissNadia:
O.K. DAHood!


HEHE...How are things up your way?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
South Florida will be hit tomorrow with very strong storms....i would expect for some very damaging storms tomorrow if the sun gets up and heats things up before the front gets here. Spells for big time tornado outbreak with the left over energy of Paloma in the area also.....
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O.K. DAHood!
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233. CybrTeddy

Thanks Cybr. I can imagine, never seen a night launch up close. Here, 100 mi away, you could see a whole section of the sky just glow. Way cool!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
I got to see the orange glow of the shuttle going up here in SRQ,allthough it was thru high clouds for most of the launch,still very cool none the less!!!,I'm suprised they launched w/storms so close by...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Thanks for the update, I'm getting my shutters out.
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231 - Tampaspin - that thing is over Beachfoxx and headed towards IKE. Hope you guys are hunkered down!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20502
I got a great view of the liftoff, VERY impressive, I was down in Titsuville for the launch and I'll try to upload some pictures. So bright it hurt my eyes bad by looking at it, like the sun. I still have a little blind spot in my eye's still after seeing that, I'll recover. But It was INCREDIBLE! Anyone else have any pictures? Please post them.
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Quoting MissNadia:
#223
Good Evening Mr. DeHood
If you click on "severe " at top of this page, it will display the map and keys! LOL


Okay, miss smarty! LOL Just sort of messin with Tim and to be honest, I've never clicked that. Oh, and that's DaHood not DeHood! or Hood or even Rob is better, whatever you prefer.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
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#223
Good Evening Mr. DeHood
If you click on "severe " at top of this page, it will display the map and keys! LOL
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Hi Pottery! I'll still talk to you, even though it might not be you.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Thanks Tampa!

Hey WxLogic, actually cleared up enough to watch from here. Was hoping the full moon would be a little closer, would have made great pics.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Good evening... well the Shuttle made it in the nick of time... Rain starting to spread across CFL northward.
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Sorry the id to each color did not post try this one..

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Ah, but I want him to prove it! Pottery, from what Island have I been accused of mysteriously posting from a blueberry?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
It sounds like Pottery, who else would say "How very tedious". LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20502
UM, Tampa, appreciate the post, but no title or key, assuming some kind of hazard map, what is it?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
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Now I am actually somebody else.

what a strange feeling, Who are you normally?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Well this is all very strange. Sign in, it said. so I did that. Now I am actually somebody else. Will take the opportunity to try and come up with a new startling avatar. How very tedious.

ADMIN, PLEASE READ THIS
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test??
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217. sugarsand

Yeah, one of those moments that fixes a place and time in your mind...I'll never forget I was on I-4 near Disney when I saw the challenger explode right in front of me. Saw the fireball and then the SRBs spiraling all over the place. Didn't dawn on me for a minute what it was, I had forgotten there was a launch that day. Then it came on the radio that something was wrong. Won't ever forget that.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Cool! The only up-close launch I have seen was Colombia Jan '03. We were in Port Canaveral.It was awesome. Watching the return was devastating... :(
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Hey Sugar!

Actually better view on the NASA channel, but just something special in seeing it without the aid of cameras. If pics and video turn out good, I'll let you know.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Hi all! Rob, I am envious. Last year I went to the beach here on NW Gulf and could see the bright orange glow on the horizon for a night launch (forget what mission). We have big t-storms south of us, moving on shore, so I settled for NASA tv on Direct tv tonight. Not quite the same.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Okay, that was cool! 100 miles away and could still see SRB sep. Never fails to make me feel like a kid!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
213. DDR
Pottery
It looks like our November flood rains are here.
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209. pottery

Pottery,

If you really want to watch, I think NASA does a web cast. Getting ready to go outside and try to see...back later.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31747
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Ouch:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Oh goody! I'm in the really ouchy part of that map.
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Well, I'm glad I am lurking here (no tv to watch the launch), just in time to see the post from Bollidear.
Thanks for the recognition Tim. Good to be included in that list of august individuals. Not at all deserving. Certainly, you are going back to the UK to enjoy some beastly weather it looks like.
Have a good one anyway LOL.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23908
T- 53 minutes until liftoff!
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Hi blog,

Having spent the past 18 months living in Grand Cayman - the tropical weather blogs have been an essential part of living in this part of the world.

More importantly - the posts of people like Drak, Kman, Pottery, Storm and plenty of others have been inspirational and educational.

Most of all - they have benn relevant, in what is increasingly becomming an irrelevant world.

Bloggers sometimes get too serious - remember it is only a blog - EVERYONES blog. Some may be arses - ok ARE arses. But it's a free world.

I'm returning to the UK soon, but just wanted to thank the guys who make this blog the respected hive of objetive information it is.

Sincere thanks again, you're great!

Tim

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.