Santa Ana winds fan damaging Califonia fire; Bahamas disturbance 95L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on November 14, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico, and is headed west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past 12 hours, thanks to an intrusion of dry air. There is a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots) over 95L, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a slight wind shift.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this may allow some slow development, if the disturbance can avoid ingesting more dry air. Dry air is plentiful on 95L's west side. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Bahamas Friday night through Saturday night, but this is not guaranteed, due to the large amount of dry air the storm must overcome. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the central Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to affect Florida's weather this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving 95L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

Southern California Santa Ana winds fan damaging fire
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event began last night in Southern California, and will continue through Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 72 mph were clocked this morning in Montecito Hills in Santa Barbara County, fanning a fire that destroyed 80 homes and injured four people. A Fire Weather Warning has been posted for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warnings for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas through Saturday. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases, leading to very warm temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Adding to the fire danger will be the very low humidities of this desert air, in the 15-25% range. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down and eventually shift so that they blow moisture from the ocean over Southern California.

I'll have an update this weekend if conditions warrant. Upcoming blogs for next week include a quick summary of this year's hurricane season, a look at the 212 mph wind gust recorded on Cuba during Hurricane Gustav, and the forecast for the upcoming winter.

Jeff Masters

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Goodmorning Wunderworld, 67 F this morning in Macon, Ga, 84% wet air, rain line approaching from the west, seems to be moving pretty fast, time for some coffee.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20481
306. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJECT: CYCLONIC STORM KHAI-MUK WEAKENS INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

At 11:30 AM IST, The available observations from satellite, coastal stations, and buoys indicated that Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and weakened into a Deep Depression and now lays center near 14.5N 82.5E or 230 kms southeast of Machilipatnam and about 270 kms northeast of Chennai. The system is likely to weaken further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada, near Machilipatnam later this evening/night.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

DETAILED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND
For people in parts of the
Greater Newcastle and
Maitland/Cessnock areas.

Issued at 4:16 pm Saturday, 15 November 2008.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:10 pm, severe thunderstorms were
detected on weather radar near Raymond Terrace and Cessnock. These thunderstorms
are moving towards the northeast. They are forecast to affect Maitland, Medowie
and Karuah by 4:40 pm.

Large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds are
likely.

An 88 km/hr wind gust has been recorded at Cessnock Airport.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES [NSW and ACT] on 132
500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:15 pm.

A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the MID NORTH
COAST, HUNTER and parts of the NORTHERN RIVERS, NORTHERN TABLELANDS, CENTRAL
TABLELANDS, NORTH WEST SLOPES and CENTRAL WEST SLOPES districts.



Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
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I'm liking the 00z GFS prospects. Colder.
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302. Relix
Ex 93L has been causing some nice rains here in PR. Quite cool, perfect for sleeping,
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301. KBH
Is this 96L on the Carib door step or no one has bothered to give it a name? Surprising there has been lots of cloud cover, plenty of strong gales but not much rain here in B'dos. Then again we still have large ponds of water in the fields since early Oct
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300. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVEN
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk
5:30 AM IST November 15 2008
========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PARDESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 5:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered at 14.5N 83.0E or about 270 kms southeast of MAchilipatnam and about 340 kms northeast of Chennai.

Satellite imagery indicates further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 18.0N and west of 85.0E and adjoining coast Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperature is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows no significant change. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.0N. the sea surface temperature over the region is 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam later today between 0900 AM and 1200 PM UTC. Forecast intensity is T3.0 during the next 24 hours.
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Latest QS for S carib

Link

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Daniel Swain Says:

November 14th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
A preliminary look at the 18z GFS does indicate an apparently 938 mb storm over the far East Pac on day 10. This is absurdly, ridiculously strong. For reference, the Columbus Day storm of 1962 (the benchmark for all Western North American extratropical cyclones) had a minimum central pressure of around 958 mb, and produced wind gusts well in excess of 150 mph. If nothing else, save a copy of that 4-panel chart to your hard drive, ’cause you aren’t going to see a forecast like that too often. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on, though–the weather may be headed for a very dramatic change (to say the least) out beyond day 8



i would same this on too your desktop this is one mode run you want too see overe and overe


Link
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http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_h24_00.gif
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow.....looks like it....very unsual weather pattern it seems this early.



mode runs are all so forcasting other vary strong storms for N CA
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the jet stream never really makes it over our area until after the front passes,we've both made our calls,lets see how it plays out tomorrow!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
294. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Tropical Weather Summary - 0000z 15NOV
===============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (97W)
23.0N 145.0E - 25 knots 1012 hPa

reported as moving north at 10 knots

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 15NOV)
===========================================
An area of convection (97W) located near 22.9N 145.7E or 265 NM east-southeast of Iwo Two, Japan. Recent multispectral and microwave satellite imagery shows deep convection developing along the eastern periphery of a transitioning tropical upper tropospheric trough cell. A 2046z Quikscat Pass indicates that the circulation, previously confined to the middle to upper levels, has spawned the development of an associated low level circulation center over the past 12 hours. Recent AMSU temperature cross sections confirm that the disturbance is transitioning into a warm core, tropical circulation. Concurrent with recent structural improvements, an approaching mid-latitude trough has introduced increasing vertical wind shear across the low level circulation center. Additionally, recent microwave satellite data show drier air wrapping into the low level circulation center from the western periphery of the circulation.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. Based on increasingly unfavorable upper level conditions and disrupted low to mid level moisture inflow, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
this is a GFS mode run and its and if am looking at this right this is showing a 938mb storm this storm would be off the WA OR and CA coast


Link


Wow.....looks like it....very unsual weather pattern it seems this early.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
this is a GFS mode run and its and if am looking at this right this is showing a 938mb storm this storm would be off the WA OR and CA coast


Link
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Quoting stillwaiting:


but not over our area,the panhandle area yes...


Its dipping very south look.....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually the Jet Stream is dipping very far south....


but not over our area,the panhandle area yes...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Goodnight everybody, has been a long day, looks like it could be another noisy night around Macon. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20481
288. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
you're welcome pottery
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Quoting stillwaiting:



I think the jet stream w/be to far to our North for FL to get widespread strong T-storms,probably just the usual thin line of rain,wind shift w/gusty winds following...


Actually the Jet Stream is dipping very far south....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Rob: The launch was spectacular - sure you saw it too!
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I mean first we had invest 94L when paloma was around then fizzlely 95L

now this! what's up mother nature!!!! LOL


(I also failed to mention it took long enough for Paloma's remains to finally die out and the area of interest when Paloma was still a remnant low (formed or was forming in the same area(east of the leewards)))
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Thanks Hades. Its no longer 3:12 am. Back to reality at 11:12 pm.
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evening all

what's with the atlantic?! LOL



she just doesn't want to give up the season just yet!
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...when the brain cell...
THE brain cell...LOL...sounds worse off than me and I can't even type any more.

All those settings are stored in cookies and are acct specific so if you are gonna be pottery2 you'll have to reset them.

Have a better evening...I gotta rest my eyes!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
281. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
pottery the change timezone is in your "Setting" listed above and when you're at the new page click onto the tab "page preference".
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But this page is different as well. No more "set time zone". I have gone to GMT. Which I can live with.
Thanks for the help, STL, I will attempt the thing in the morning, when the brain cell has woken up.

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Quoting pottery2:
Bah and Humbug.
I will have to get my Consultant on the job.
I was pot2 once, STL is correct. T'was when I had to use another server.
And Rob, it was Mustique !
And Sugar, thanks for being Faithful LOL

LOL!! G'nite!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Quoting pottery2:
Bah and Humbug.
I will have to get my Consultant on the job.
I was pot2 once, STL is correct. T'was when I had to use another server.
And Rob, it was Mustique !
And Sugar, thanks for being Faithful LOL


Identity Crisis resolved...the real deal!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
277. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

LOW (1003 hPa) NEAR 08.0S 80.0E IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER.

TO.O: 15/0045 UTC.

----
This is 99S

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Bah and Humbug.
I will have to get my Consultant on the job.
I was pot2 once, STL is correct. T'was when I had to use another server.
And Rob, it was Mustique !
And Sugar, thanks for being Faithful LOL
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Time to walk the dogs, rain has let up. Have a nice evening all!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Been a long week and my brain is a bit fried. See all you good folk tomorrow.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
254. stormwatcherCI

Stuff started flying by and I missed your post...was looking at that area earlier, keeping an eye out but nothing should develop there until upper winds and shear weaken.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
Models guidelines is forescasting that we may have another tropical system in the south central caribbean in about 5 days from now. Presure are forescast to remain low enough in that general area.
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jax. could get a isolated severe,though..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting TampaSpin:
It is 75Deg in Tampa and very high humidity.....if the sun gets up and heats things up the unstablilty that will be created with the approaching front will explode into major problems.



I think the jet stream w/be to far to our North for FL to get widespread strong T-storms,probably just the usual thin line of rain,wind shift w/gusty winds following...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
269. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" continues to move westward and threatens Palawan.

At 11 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 9.3ºN, 120.7ºE or 210 kms east of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.

Singal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60km/h)

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Palawan

Additional Information
=========================
Public Warning Signal number 1 elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
robindahood:that rain over srq must be false echo's?????theres no rain to be found here!!!,yet,tomorrow central/south FL may get a gusty isolated severe T-storm,but overall heavy rain pops should be isolated....

Could be, was looking at NWS Long Range Base
still showing light rain if you want to look.
clear over this way, just surprised me.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
Quoting RTLSNK:
262 - Will do, thanks, my wife and I lived in Blue Water Bay for three years from 2001-04, love that area, still have loads of friends there.

Really! I work in Niceville. BWB is very nice! I play tennis there some. Small world.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
262 - Will do, thanks, my wife and I lived in Blue Water Bay for three years from 2001-04, love that area, still have loads of friends there.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20481
Quoting RobDaHood:


Identity crisis?

BTW, got a message from KeyWestBrat. She is in the backwoods and only got dialup access today. Told her I would say Hi! to everyone.

LOL! Identity crisis.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Quoting TampaSpin:
It is 75Deg in Tampa and very high humidity.....if the sun gets up and heats things up the unstablilty that will be created with the approaching front will explode into major problems.

That's what happened here in the panhandle today. It was very humid and 78 degrees. And it did explode.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
It is 75Deg in Tampa and very high humidity.....if the sun gets up and heats things up the unstablilty that will be created with the approaching front will explode into major problems.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting RTLSNK:
252 - SugarSand - just east of Gainesville, a little town called Interlochen, he moved up there a few years ago from Fort Laud to teach the girls volleyball team at the local highschool.

Just looked it up on the FL map, it's near Palatka. Nice area. If he ever comes this way (Destin area) and wants to dive, let me know.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Quoting sugarsand:
What happened to Pottery?


Identity crisis?

BTW, got a message from KeyWestBrat. She is in the backwoods and only got dialup access today. Told her I would say Hi! to everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31731
252 - SugarSand - just east of Gainesville, a little town called Interlochen, he moved up there a few years ago from Fort Laud to teach the girls volleyball team at the local highschool.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20481
maybe some isolated Tornadic storms near eastern SC,NC and VA tommorow afternoon though,that area should be in a low risk tornado threat,IMO....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
What happened to Pottery?
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk
0230 AM IST November 15 2008
======================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WARNING FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (Orange Message)

At 2:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Khai-Muk over west central Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 14.5N 83.0E or 270 NM southeast of Machilipatnam and about 340 kms northeast of Chennai.

Satellite imagery indicates further organization with cloud dense overcast pattern in association with the system. The dvorak intensity is T2.5. The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the se is Very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken to solid, intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and west of 87.0E and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. The lowest cloud top temperature is -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10 to 20 knots. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows no significant change. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is about 29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada near Machilipatnam, India later today between 0900 AM and 1200 PM UTC. Forecast intensity T3.5 during the next 24 hours.
Hey you Cyclone, get away from the slurpy machine.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.