Disturbance 95L will bring heavy rains to the Bahamas Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:54 PM GMT on November 13, 2008

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A small area of surface low pressure (95L) is 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico and headed is west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance in under a moderate level of wind shear (15-20 knots), and recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1) shows a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized and is not changing much in coverage or intensity. There is no surface circulation apparent on satellite imagery, but there has been a slight increase in the organization of the cloud pattern in the past few hours.

Wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 15-20 knots, over the next two days, as the disturbance heads west. Since water temperatures are a warm 28°C, this should allow some slow development. The central Bahamas can expect some heavy thunderstorms and gusty 25-30 mph winds Friday afternoon through Saturday from 95L. By Saturday afternoon, as 95L approaches the western Bahamas, an approaching trough of low pressure should turn the disturbance sharply northward and northeastward. I'm not expecting 95L to move over Florida, though Florida's east coast may catch the outermost thunderstorms of the disturbance on Saturday evening. High wind shear should tear the disturbance apart on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 95L will develop into a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon. I put the odds at the lower end of this spectrum, 20-30%.


Figure 1.Latest satellite image of disturbance 95L.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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207. TampaSpin
2:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
206. Bonedog
1:58 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
morning everyone
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
205. pottery
1:57 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
204. pottery
1:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Morning All.
KBH, similiar conditions here. Looks to be a rainy w/e.
Gusty, showers, cool.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
203. NEwxguy
1:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
GM all
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
202. KBH
1:46 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
hi folks, been off the blog for a while, see 95L is about. What about this cloud mass east of the C'bean. There are some strong Ne to SE breezes where I am (B'dos)
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
201. Bonedog
1:37 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
morning conchy
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
200. conchygirl
1:16 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Good Morning Bone (and all): Nice morning here but the cool weather will be here soon - YEAH! Shuttle launch still on schedule for this evening.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
199. Bonedog
12:59 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
best line from sulli

After a “White Halloween” will there be a “White Thanksgiving”? At this juncture, chances are looking good
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
197. AstroHurricane001
12:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Talk about cold air over CONUS, we in S. Ontario could get a foot of snow by November 24.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
196. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:50 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
P. R. radar loop starts
and then - Bummer:
MESSAGE DATE: NOV 14 2008 10:36:30
THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY OFFLINE. FAA TECHNICIANS
WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SITUATION AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6067
195. Bonedog
12:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
NJ forecast discussion

FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT, A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS DELIVERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
PLUNGE TO -10C TO -14C BY LATE TUESDAY
WE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SOME WIND WILL BE THROWN
ON TOP OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AS WELL, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SHOULD BE GOING PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SET UP AND
WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH PARTICULARLY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS LAKE
STREAMERS MAY EXTEND THIS FAR EAST


MAX TEMPS
MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 40 ON WED EVEN IN NYC.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
194. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
...Fire & Ice
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6067
193. Bonedog
12:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2008


brrrrrrrrrr



Tampa
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70 FAR SOUTH

Tallahassee
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 30S WITH NORMALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 30F. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND FOR INLAND URBAN CENTERS MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IS EXPECTED

Jax
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH CHANCES OF FROST MOST NIGHTS


Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
190. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Morning all,
Looks like Macon Ga. and So. Cal. have it worse than we do here... I'm happy to see the area N. of P.R. being shredded.
Quoting vortfix:

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

see: Fire destroys 80 homes, injures 4 in SoCal town
...Beth Lazor, 18, said she was in her dormitory when the alarm went off. She said she only had time to grab her laptop, phone, a teddy bear and a debit card before fleeing the burning building.
CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6067
189. gordydunnot
12:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Good vortfix I hope there right. It does look it is moving more energy westward if it does not disappear I think it maybe interesting when it hits the frontal boundary. It doesnt look like a surface low so I guess its upper, but looks like its developing a large circulation from south of Dominican Republic to a couple hundred miles north. Hey Tampa keep that cool air coming east.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
188. TampaSpin
12:30 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
14-NOV-2008 01:48:37 43.60 -127.49 5.4 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
187. TampaSpin
12:24 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Morning all......sorry for the quick drop in but, i have to run the kid to school.....BBL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
185. TampaSpin
12:21 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Below is a 24 hour Temp map.......wow half the country will be in the freezer.....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
184. gordydunnot
12:20 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
Hope that mess leaves poor Haiti alone.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
183. gordydunnot
12:14 PM GMT on November 14, 2008
I dont see a circulation but thunderstorms do seem to be building on the rgb satellite at nhc. Run western atl.(95L)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
182. Bonedog
11:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
morning Vort, IKE

yea 95L is on its way to the graveyard, too much shear out there right now.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
181. IKE
11:51 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
179. Bonedog
11:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Links to my last post

CMC

NGP

MM5FSU-GFS

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
178. Bonedog
11:40 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
noticed some of the models spinning something up north of panama at 120 to 144hrs
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
177. RTLSNK
11:34 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Yup, its here, lightning bolts walking up the street, think I'll shut down for awhile, thanks for that great radar shot, its nice to see things in advance!! BBL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21645
176. Bonedog
11:34 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
rain has finally stoped. fogged in right now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
174. Bonedog
11:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
morning folks
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
170. RTLSNK
11:08 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
On your screen there, I-75 comes North and then splits into I-475 to the west side of Macon and I-75 to the east side, then I-16 comes into 75 from Savannah from the east side and continues around the east side of Macon until it runs back into 475 on the NW side of town and continues toward Atlanta. Inside the top of that triangle is where I live just below that white county line. Storm line is just south of the house now, impressive light show going on now.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21645
167. RTLSNK
10:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Morning Vort, I check your blog on a daily basis, great site and really cool graphs and radar views!! Looks like that line is going to train through here all day.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21645
166. CybrTeddy
10:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Hello everyone! Today's a big day for those of us in Florida. Space Shuttle Endeavour is to launch at 1955 hours (7:55 PM) Godspeed to them.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
164. RTLSNK
10:27 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
What a way to wake up to a new day,
that will teach me to talk about tornadoes last night. The sirens went off at 0415 this morning, a supercell formed just SW of Macon moving NE at 50mph, dopler radar indicated rotation just as the storm came into the downtown area of Macon so they activated the siren warning system all over Bibb County. We live on the NW side just outside the city limits, but only two blocks from a fire station so when that thing goes off its run for the master bedroom walk in closet. I keep a battery operated TV in there so we pull up Channel 13 and can watch the storm roll right up the Google street map under the doppler radar screen. Pillows, quilts, and motorcycle helmets for the whole family complete the closet ensemble. The only one that gets a kick out of it is the 2 year old grandbaby. She loves hats of all kinds! Storm was south of us a couple of miles headed NE towards Gray, GA. No reports yet of damage or injuries but they are a little slow around here with that news.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21645
163. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:02 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Public Bulletin for coastal India #5

Subject: Deep Depression over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal

At 11:30 AM IST, The depression (should be deep depression this is India Meteorological mistake...) over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northward and lays centered over southwest and adjoining west Bay of Bengal near 13.0N 85.0E or about 500 kms east of Chennai, India and 550 kms southeast of Machilipatnam. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

Full Bulletin from India Meteorological Department
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:55 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
forgot the Additional Information from PAGASA

Public Warning Signal number 1 elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 1 as well as the provinces of eastern Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Visayas.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
==============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 9.1ºN 124.8ºE or 80 kms eest of Butuan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
--------------
1.Southern Leyte
2.Bohol
3.Siquijor
4.Cebu
5.Camotes Islands
6.Negros Oriental
7.Negros Occidental
8.Iloilo
9.Guimaras

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.Surigao del Norte
2.Surigao del Sur
3.Agusan del Norte
4.Agusan del Sur
5.Misamis Oriental
6.Misamis Occidental
7.Camiguin Island
8.Lanao del Norte
9.Lanao del Sur
10.Bukidnon
11.Northern Zamboanga
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
160. TheSavant
8:11 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
i agree weatherblog. we have to be ready for 95l to possibly become a tropical storm or hurricane, and the xtrp model has it heading to daytona beach. that could be bad news.
159. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:23 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB06-2008
8:30 AM IST November 14 2008
===========================================

SUBJECT: CYCLONE WATCH FOR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST

At 8:30 AM IST, Yesterday's depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a Deep Depression and lays centered at 12.5N 85.0E or about 520 kms east-southeast of Chennai, India and 600 kms southeast of Machilipatnam.

Satellite imagery indicates organized convection and curved band pattern in association with the system. The system Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a minimum central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Associated broken intense to very intense curved convection cloud bands over Bay of Bengal between 11.0N to 17.0N and between 80.5E to 87.5E. The lowest cloud top temperatures is between -60 to -70C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 5 to 15 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots to northwest of the system. The system lies close to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which is roughly runds along 16.0N. The sea surface temperatures over the region is 28-29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
157. HurrMichaelOrl
5:43 AM GMT on November 14, 2008
Thanks Michael for the info
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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