Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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433. pottery
10:15 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
New Blog, guys.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24025
432. RobDaHood
10:02 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting 21N71W:
Afternoon all,
Oh Oh , that invest 95l looks way too close for confort for us...in the TCI


Not expecting a lot to come of it at this point, but as you say, close. Keep an eye on it 'cause it could end up being a rain-maker for you. Little early to tell what will ultimately come of it.

GFDL and HWRF bring it near you with TS winds
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
431. Bonedog
9:59 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
from my earlier post about the exoplanet images. Just got a new one

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
430. futuremet
9:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:


Can't snow. Where is the moisture going to come from lol.


Indeed, Last year many thought that it would snow when temperatures dropped below freezing here in the treasure coast. However, the quantity if moisture in the air was inadequate. But the advection of cold air over the warm oceans caused stratocumulus clouds to form. We only received mere drizzles of cold rain. Snow flurries probably did form during the coldest times. Nonetheless, the atmosphere still lacked moisture content, instability, and sufficiently cold temperatures, as DRAK suggested.


This event took place during early January of 2008....when a vigorous front blasted through the SE U.S.

I am sure you all remember it.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
429. 21N71W
9:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Afternoon all,
Oh Oh , that invest 95l looks way too close for confort for us...in the TCI
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
428. RobDaHood
9:45 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
427. CybrTeddy

Hey Cybr,
are we still on for the launch at 7:55pm tomorrow? Haven't thought to check today.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
427. CybrTeddy
9:39 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
orange alert eh? Maybe on last go for the season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
426. atmoaggie
9:24 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Agree, but it has to get really cold before I turn the heat on and hoping not to have to this year either!


I would much rather have a low in the upper 20s a couple of nights to kill off the skeeters. Some winters (in SE LA) we never get cold enough for that. Having to turn on the heat at night would be worth it.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
425. RobDaHood
9:15 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting bayoubug:
might be a stupid question..is that polama's week swirl in the gulf...


centered about 200 mi (rough guess) SW of Tampa Bay? Yes.

Ex-Paloma has been removed from 1800Z surface map and low near Pensacola added.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
424. bayoubug
9:09 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
might be a stupid question..is that polama's week swirl in the gulf...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
423. conchygirl
9:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
394. conchygirl

Cool, please, not cold. Cool crisp and dry, like last year works for me. Really enjoyed not having to run the AC or Heat except a couple times each over about 4 months. Could use the break on energy cost again.
Agree, but it has to get really cold before I turn the heat on and hoping not to have to this year either!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
422. NEwxguy
9:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
418. NEwxguy

Lots of folks here still suffering from Post Hurricane Stress Disorder. End of Nov and 1st strong coldfront cause a big sigh of relief and reason to celebrate. Excuse us if we get a little over-exuberant.

You'll get your chance to laugh later on when it's 35 and we're whining "when is summer gonna come?" - LOL


The only trouble is if your 35,we'll be -10
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
420. RobDaHood
9:03 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
418. NEwxguy

Lots of folks here still suffering from Post Hurricane Stress Disorder. End of Nov and 1st strong coldfront cause a big sigh of relief and reason to celebrate. Excuse us if we get a little over-exuberant.

You'll get your chance to laugh later on when it's 35 and we're whining "when is summer gonna come?" - LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
419. Bonedog
8:57 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
416. RobDaHood

Yea I hear ya. Going to be that for the next 3 1/2 days up here
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
418. NEwxguy
8:54 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
I can see the rush to dig out the heavy clothes in Florida.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
417. hurricanemaniac123
8:52 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Starting a new contest on my blog!

The quietest year contest.

The season is due November 30th.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
416. RobDaHood
8:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Yeah, Bone, cold and wet is the worst. I hate "almost snow". Don't have to deal with that here much.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
415. kellnerp
8:47 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Just got the woodstove in and the wood stacked. Better check out the snow shoes. Wonder if this will be like '78?

TOP
Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
414. sporteguy03
8:47 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
I'm not too crazy on these cold temperature projections, it was 63ish here in Orlando on Election day it is only going to be in the upper 60s and low 70s as highs slightly below normal but not extreme cold. Time will tell.


Ike enjoy the last tropical models while you can you won't see them for 6 months :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
413. hurricanemaniac123
8:40 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Wow. We went from "this season is over" to a new invest. I'm thinking it might be on red alert tonight or tommorow and a td tommorow or this weekend.

Rene could be on its way.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
412. Seastep
8:37 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting fireflymom:
Looks like we have a little low pressure area forming up just off the coast of Texas and may move inland a bit. Will be interesting to have something to watch other than the cold fronts.


1009mb Low added to 18Z map.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
411. Bonedog
8:37 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
I'll take the snow =) Just bring it on =)

I'LL take the snow over this cold rain any day
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
410. Drakoen
8:37 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)


Can't snow. Where is the moisture going to come from lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
409. RobDaHood
8:34 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)


They can have it...Snow is what plane tickets are for...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
407. RobDaHood
8:33 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Wonder if pottery is watching this invest...starting to drag a little convection over TnT.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
406. Orcasystems
8:30 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Rob from what I have seen

30s upper florida(Jax)
40s Central(Tampa)
50s Southern(Miami)


Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
405. Stormchaser2007
8:23 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Im surprised this is only an Invest...


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
404. Bonedog
8:23 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
wow even have below in the 8-14 time frame
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
403. bwi
8:23 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Orange alert?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
402. RobDaHood
8:19 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
40s Central(Tampa)
50s Southern(Miami)

I'll be right in the middle there somewhere, which is fine with me...get too far into the thirties, though and I'm not a happy camper.

current forecast means no AC in day and no Heat at night. Mostly sunny and light winds means good outdoors day.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
401. Bonedog
8:19 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Looks like a double cold spell for you guys down south

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
399. Bonedog
8:14 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Rob from what I have seen

30s upper florida(Jax)
40s Central(Tampa)
50s Southern(Miami)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
398. weatherbro
8:12 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
think the NWS is gonna continue tweaking the temperatures until wham! The coldest air of the season! You guy think so?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1271
397. RobDaHood
8:12 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
394. conchygirl

Cool, please, not cold. Cool crisp and dry, like last year works for me. Really enjoyed not having to run the AC or Heat except a couple times each over about 4 months. Could use the break on energy cost again.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
396. TheDawnAwakening
8:11 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
I agree NEwxGuy, a miserable night at Foxborough, MA. Does anyone think that former Paloma could energize the low pressure center in the western Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps make the storm center stronger?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
395. NEwxguy
8:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Going to be a miserable night at the Patriots-Jets game tonight,current conditions 46 deg and light rain.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
394. conchygirl
8:05 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Can't wait for the cold air to come - my favorite time of the year in FL!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
393. 786
8:05 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
well acoording to the 500MB ridge that is being forecasted is oriented WSW - ENE therefore 95L could move WSW for a bit
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
392. Bonedog
8:05 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
save yourself the greif can an Optima Red Top and be done with your battery woes. Dont forget to get more CCAs too :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
391. IKE
8:04 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


You must be in politics "The economy is strong,don't worry,we'll just bail out every business that asks for it.


I was joking, but I'm glad to see the DOW up.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
390. RobDaHood
8:02 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
387. Bonedog

some very nice imagery in that article.

388. TampaSpin
hehe...played the battery game Sunday.

373. NEwxguy
No, only big guys and financial institutions get bailouts. Us little guys just have to muddle through the best we can and pick up the tab.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
389. NEwxguy
8:01 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Yeh,Tampa,any problems with cars up here,will make themselves known once the cold weather sets in.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
388. TampaSpin
7:54 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
My son drives a 97 mitsubishi elcipse and in the cooler weather i noticed the car was drogey starting....needed a new battery.....things like that show up in the cooler weather even in Florida.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
387. Bonedog
7:54 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Astronomers have taken what they say are the first-ever direct images of planets outside of our solar system, including a visible-light snapshot of a single-planet system and an infrared picture of a multiple-planet system

Link


The three exoplanets (red dots in the right panel) are shown orbiting HR 8799, whose residual light is shown as the multi-colored specks in the center of the right panel. An infrared image of one of the planets, which lies at 38 AU from the star, is shown in the right panel. Credit: National Research Council Canada.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
386. TampaSpin
7:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
looks like all of Florida will see the chill going to be in the 40s in Tampa


yep
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
385. Bonedog
7:49 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
looks like all of Florida will see the chill going to be in the 30s in Jax 40s in Tampa 50s in Miami
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
384. Bonedog
7:46 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
381. NEwxguy



actually all the way to Hati with a reenforcing shot behind it
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
383. Hurricane4Lex
7:44 PM GMT on November 13, 2008
we have 1 hour and 15 minutes left alot can happen till then....
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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