Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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I remember in 1999 I bought gas from a station in central New Jersey along the coast, near Asbury Park. It was a coastal station and the price of gas there was a mere 67 cents a gallon. I filled my car for 7 bucks and got just over 10 gallon of gas...

That's the cheapest I've ever seen gas
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76. Bonedog

Hehe!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
on a weather note...

pretty nasty storm getting ready to go off. the cyclone over the plains will head to the coast and a coastal low will develope along its front. Looks like a good soaking rain for the next 4 days from the Great Lakes and Ohio Vally all the way to the coast and New England.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Amazing to me how there is still such a well defined circulation to "Paloma's Ghost". Wonder if she might be intent on a 3rd crossing of Cuba...Just a novelty, I know, but interesting.

(Thought I might as well throw out a weather-related post.)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Hey Rob.


Hell I rember gas at 80 cents! Me and my buddies used to fill up for around 10 bucks. Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot. Now that number gets blown by in a blink.


Just grinning thinking how fast the blog changes. A week ago fights were breaking out over talking about the markets and gas today nothing LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Got gas for $1.89 at Exxon in Galveston county. Finally filling up a tank for $25.
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still $2.49 @ some stations here
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68. bgcatfan

welcome out of lurkdom, Bowling Green.

Wow, I was feeling really good about how much I saved on the last tankful and then you come along a blow it for me...(kidding)

have a nice one!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Yes I thought about that after I posted.


Figured you knew that, but I get your point...Seems like they would at least keep up the pretense of sympathy for those who just paid a good commission for the privelege of losing their shirts.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Yes I thought about that after I posted.
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69. lawntonlookers

ahh, but you're forgetting...the brokers make money either way...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Good afternoon everyone. Just a quick glance and what is going on. Gas in my are is around $2.15. Maybe the dow will jump up before closing. I always get a laugh when the dow closes and you see all of the clapping even when it drops 400 points. You would think the people on the podium would show some signs of concern that it drops that much.
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Been a while since I posted on here...

Gas is below $1.90 where I am. Bowling Green, Ohio.
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RDH - I remember .99 gas in 2002 - seems forever ago. We can hope! ~) Back to work again!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
it is going to get to 53 in west palm beach for thanksgiving and a high of 68
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64. Bonedog

...Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.

Noticed that huh? (grin) Yeah, I already had that conversation once today...Good to see ya BTW.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
hey folks.

Gas still at 2.17 here usually were are lower then the rest. Oh well at least its heading in the right direction.

Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
60. zoomiami

The industry did a lot of work "beefing up" the platforms post Katrina. What worried me about IKE (energy-wise) was the potential loss of refinery capacity. That is where our real bottleneck has been in recent years. Fortunately no major damage.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Miami is at 2.12 to 2.49 - depending on where you go.

It would be exciting to get under two dollars. Even at the current price its 1.45 per gallon cheaper than two months ago. Translates into 37.00 less per tank for my car.

Good that the storms didn't impact the oil fields more than they did this year.
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58. fribble

My girlfriend has about a 45 min commute both ways, 5 days a week. Even in the little econobox it got pretty expensive...Now if we can just do something about diesel...I got to the point that I just stick the card in and don't even look!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
Quoting hondaguy:
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$

Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol


Same here. I'm in sales and it's helped quite a bit.




Here in Bon Air,Va (near Richmond ) Gas is around 1.87. We've been under 2.00 for a week or more. AND that was this morning - might be even lower on the way home.
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Quoting RobDaHood:


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

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Quoting conchygirl:
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30623
NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
53. IKE

DOW
286.42
-3.29%
8,407.54



Wall Street Shuffle
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
MONTHLY RTN
+3.96%
WEEKLY RTN
+5.31%
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
aiiii yaiii yaiii - I have a cat 5 of office work today & barn later -- need some sheer to take the paperwork away -- back this evening
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Ya your correct...

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
I do believe i told everyone the Dow would go down if Obama wins......I don't see it getting better any time soon. Many said his victory would make the Dow go up immediately....Think again.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
DJIA*
8,468.71
-225.25
-2.59%
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
39. IKE
12Z CMC no longer shows a Caribbean system. What it does show is cold-air heading into the SE USA....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
38. IKE
Quoting hondaguy:
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol



Same here. I'm in sales and it's helped quite a bit.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol

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36. IKE
It's running around $2.17.9 here in Defuniak Springs,Fl...we have a county tax of 5 cents a gallon to fund road pavements in Walton County.

I heard GM is losing over $1,000 on every vehicle they make. No wonder they need a bailout.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
31. Ike - paid 1.94/gallon this morning...filled the tank up 1/2 way for $10!!!
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Seems to go down about $10 a week
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Quoting IKE:
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


$45 dollar fill up this week, down from $85 peak, I almost busted out the "Carlton Dance". I've had the car for 2 years now and that is the lowest it's been, it was $55 to fill up when I bought it.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.