Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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Anyway, my guess for post season.

Arthur upgraded to TD status then TS status before landfall.

Fay might be upgraded to Hurricane status, and might be retired

Gustav upgraded to Category 5 status and retired

Hanna retired

Ike, might be upgraded to Category 5 status and will be retired

Omar upgraded to Category 4 status

Paloma might be retired.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Ok since things are a little slow...Anyone have any interesting Hurricane or Typhhon stories. Possible survival stories?? I've got a dandy, just running short on time right now as i'm at work but I will tell it later.
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181. N3EG
Whatever that last "tropical cyclone" was in the western Pacific, it sucked enough moisture into the jet stream to give us 3.55 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, with about 3 inches since midnight. That's what hurricanes do to us in Western Washington...by the way, our highest wind gust was only 13mph.
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My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

Named Storms: 16
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 4

Pre June: 0
June: 1
July: 2
August: 5
September: 6
October: 0
November: 1
December: 1

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LOL - now that's one happy girl!
Gotta love her!
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Hi Rob - caught your post -- on the run -- g'nite & Tomorrow.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Spouse has a client here tonight... gotta run -- "hostess w/the mostess" LOL -- I'm still in barn jeans w/perfume ode du horse sweat ROTFL.....better take care of businees. You all have a good night. I'm getting waves, I'm getting waves....and I don't have to work on most of those days.....although Sunday the winds in SWFL are looking to be 20mph plus -- a little too strong for me to be in the water... wait and see
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting hurristat:


1.99 in MI today... three months after the peak was 4.56... thats some pretty big change.


down where i live in south florida, the peak was $4.25 back in may. today: $2.20. i say it will be $1.50, maybe less, by the time obama is inagurated.
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Hey surfmom,

cooking right now, so slow to reply.

Hope that works out for you, know you've been waiting a while...back in a few.
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Bonedog - get a cheap flight down for a fun weekend!!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
WAKEUP SURF ALERT - The upcoming coldfront will break the GOMEX flat spell. 1ft Southy back on Thursday - stays till Saturday AM. South windswell probably not big enough to surf, but check your best South facing beaches. Saturday surf comes upby afternoon, behind the Front. Waist high ( ) from the NW Saturday evening/Sunday 2-4ft Waves, Secondary Front, tuesday - back up and waist high. 68 degrees Gulf water - may drop - it's neoprene time - get out the 3/2 and have fun!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Next year, three new names: Fred, Ida, and Joaquin, replacing Fabian, Isabel, and Juan

gotta run see you all later
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$


1.99 in MI today... three months after the peak was 4.56... thats some pretty big change.
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here it is

Arthur r-THUR
Bertha BUR-tha
Cristobal krees-TOE-bahl
Dolly doll-E
Edouard eh-DWARD
Fay FAY
Gustav GOO-stav
Hanna HAN-a
Ike IKE
Josephine JO-ze-feen
Kyle KI-el
Laura Lor-A
Marco MAR-co
Nana NA-na
Omar O-mar
Paloma pa-LOW-ma
Rene re-NAY
Sally SAL-e
Teddy TED-e
Vicky VIK-e
Wilfred WIL-fred
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Quoting RobDaHood:
Went to school with a guy named Rene but but pronounced Rainy. Who knows?


the NHC... i'll go check
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Quoting Vortex95:
98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.


Actually, the opposite. Great time to go to college.
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Went to school with a guy named Rene but but pronounced Rainy. Who knows?
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Quoting Vortex95:
it appears a derechio is starting to develop in the gulf its in its infancy and hopefully sheer will kill it as with 95% of potential derechos.


Wait, a derecho??
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Quoting RobDaHood:
No, problem. Had to check to be sure myself...I can usually keep the names straight..it's when we have 3-4 L numbers that I can't keep up!


ya no kidding. And plus, René should have an accent, otherwise its pronounced Rean... and René is male, too.
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Quoting 15hurricanes:
Next year- 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

We'll see 4 hurricanes or MORE from January 1 to September 30 only!!!
I mean it !!!! I believe!!!!! (Not October 1 to December 31!)


Watch, Mother Nature's gonna be like: "hold on, 15 hurricanes, hold your horses. You got lucky this year. Next year, we're getting 3 hurricanes in that time frame. What you say, you get the opposite. Look, it happened to taz, too. "

Anyway, its happened every time except in this active period except for 1997. Get over it.
Plus, it gets old.... phale
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No, problem. Had to check to be sure myself...I can usually keep the names straight..it's when we have 3-4 L numbers that I can't keep up!
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D'oh!

That's ok....I'm still waiting for Felix to come back....

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Rene would be correct

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

2009 - Rose
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Rene? I thought it was Rosie?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is now overe


its not over til its over... you said that once before, and what did we get? Paloma.... everyone, watch out for René...
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heheh Rob

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I'm going to say there's a 50% chance that we will have at least 1 more named storm this year.

Also, these are what I now think will be retired:

Dolly (60% chance)
Fay (55% chance)
Gustav (99.99999999% chance)
Hanna (70% chance)
Ike (100% chance)
Omar (40-50% chance)
Paloma (60% chance)

The rest I give less that 50% chance.
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151. Bonedog

...(don't ask)


ROFLMAO

hehehe...don't need to!

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155. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
14:30 PM IST November 12 2008


  • A low pressure has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas. It is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models indicate its initial west-northwestwards movement, leading to increase in rainfall activity over south peninsula.

    ----
    well they dropped the word "depression" to form in the future. (for now)
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    Quoting Bonedog:
    the 850mb to surface diffrence, can that be estimated the same way flight level winds can derive surface winds? Like a 10% thing or something?


    Not really. In the case of differential advection you have different air masses at different levels of the atmosphere. You're going to need to analyze each layer.
    You could look at this, but as you can see there are a lot of limitations:
    Link
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    153. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
    Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

    Tropical Depression "SIONY" has moved away from the country and is now over the vicinity of Pagasa Island .

    Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3 (FINAL)
    =========================
    At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Siony located at 11.7ºN 113.5ºE or 90 km west of Pagasa Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

    Additional Information
    =======================
    Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 890 km East of Northern Luzon (18.0°N 132.5°E).

    With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.

    ---
    think PAGASA will finally be done with this "Quinta-Siony" cyclone.. =P
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    the 850mb to surface diffrence, can that be estimated the same way flight level winds can derive surface winds? Like a 10% thing or something?
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    LOL Jet, do we have the same wife? Mine believes the oil guy adds dirt to the oil so that the filters and jets clog and we need to have a tech come out and repair everything which costs bundles. Especially at 2am on a sunday in 20 degree weather (don't ask)
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    150. IKE
    Quoting Drakoen:
    Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.


    Yeah...I know. MichaelSTL told me so the other day. I like the 850mb because it's easier to see the troughs.

    Thanks though.
    Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
    Conspiracy theories are loads of fun though...

    Time to figure out what's for dinner. Will check in later if anythings going on.
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    Quoting Bonedog:
    I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.



    I know what you are talking about when you talk of the wife having a theory about things, as my wife thinks that the air conditioner technician is conspiring with the power co. to detune the A/C unit so the power bill is higher! I cannot win!!
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    As Dennis Leary once said, "Lifs a [female dog] get a [explicitive] helmet"


    In my eyes its all realitive. If your the one making the money your loving this time, if your loosing your shirt you looking for the tallest building. If your somewhere in the middle your just looking to survive until it rebounds.

    Thats the only light and silver lining.. our economy will rebound. when? who knows but eventually it will.

    Another reason all hell has broken loose is due to the over inflated preices on everything. eventually that bubble was bound to burst and everything will come back into equallibrum and settle, albeit at where prices should have been all along and not at the inflated prices.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.
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    In reality though, I read in mid summer that fuel prices were expected to increase, then decrease significantly this fall as refinery capacity came on line. Weakening economy has also caused people to be more conservative in their spending (including fuel usage).
    October is often a volitile month for the markets, with the remainder of the year governed by how the markets perceive consumer confidence. This being an election year also contributes to the uncertainty of the markets, which will continue until the markets figure out "what to make" of Obama's policies. The bank crisis has been coming for a long time. Add to this the media hyping any bad economic news, it's pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Not so much a conspiracy, but a convergence of events upon a point in time.
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    I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.
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    Quoting Bonedog:
    Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.


    I do not think he would benefit from the price of oil, but there were many countries that did! In addition, they try to say, “We are your friend”!! Please give me a break!!
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    139. 786
    99. not really...we only have one electricity company and they can do just about anything they want as they are the only providers
    Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
    Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:


    This image of the northern polar region of Saturn shows both the aurora and underlying atmosphere(hexagon storm), seen at two different wavelengths of infrared light as captured by NASA’s Cassini spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona
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    Quoting Bonedog:
    on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

    My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

    Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

    not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.


    Hi Bone, Yes it was somewhat funny that the price of oil went up the last two years and right after the election it started to drop! I wonder who was in the majority the last two years and did nothing to control it. Wonder if someone wanted the economy to get bad just before the election??
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    Know what you mean Rob. I was the same way. I feel the more knowledge you garner the better decsions you can make.
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    I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$
    Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
    Thank you for the information.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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    About JeffMasters

    Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.