Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

Share this Blog
1
+

The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 283 - 233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

283. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


Indeed check these sites out

Link

Link

Link

The second link is good for checking if we have a bad day (cause asia is always the 1st to open)


Osama Bin Ladin is probably laughing in his cave.


I see what's left of Paloma heading toward us here in the Florida panhandle....lol.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're pretty blessed too Ike...we moved here and paid cash for our house so we don't have that to worry about. Feel really sorry for the folks who are losing their homes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would not be surprised at all if the low level cloud swirl that was paloma now in the gulf of mexico developed into a week subtropical storm before impacting the florida panhandle....there is a ton of shear of it now indeed but there is also plenty of convergence and lift in the atmosphere which could rapidly produce thunderstorms over the center which in a small way is already happening this morning, all be it being blown off to the east.......jsut some food for thought it will be interesting today to watch it scream ne over the gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
278. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
272. Was just looking at houses in the area I used to live in San Diego. The house we sold over three years ago is now worth about 300k less than what we sold it for. It's to the point where we could buy the same house for less than we paid for it when we purchased it...too bad we couldn't unload OUR house now and move back there...

Economy is AWFUL. (Thank you Captain Obvious, I say to myself)

I have ALWAYS had a job and right now, have been applying everywhere for something parttime and I can't find ANYTHING. Very unusual for me. I need to be home with my kids after school (youngest teen is a fragile type 1)...however, can't seem to find work for the times i am just sitting around doing nothing. Unbelievable.


I've been in sales since 1984....have had my own business since 1987....dealing primarily with the senior age market. Self-employed. Have no one to tell me I'm laid-off...my own boss..kind of glad I'm where I'm at.

I can't imagine being foreclosed on...where would my family go? It costs more to rent a place here then I'm paying for a house payment, which includes my property taxes and insurance on my house.

In today's market, I'm somewhat blessed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Won't that ("95L") get sheared???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting conchygirl:
Well, how about that - 95L snuck up on us while we were sleeping! Doesn't appear any impact to land, however.


95L????

Who, what, when, where, why, and how?

No kiddin that for sure snuck up on me

gonna have to check it out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Thousands more lose their homes
Nearly 85,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released today. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate with one in every 74 homes receiving a foreclosure filing. CNNMoney reports a total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August 2007.


Jobless claims highest since Sept. 11 attacks
Unemployment filings surge to 516,000, number of Americans continuing on benefits at 25-year high.



What an economy*



Indeed check these sites out

Link

Link

Link

The second link is good for checking if we have a bad day (cause asia is always the 1st to open)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, how about that - 95L snuck up on us while we were sleeping! Doesn't appear any impact to land, however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
272. Was just looking at houses in the area I used to live in San Diego. The house we sold over three years ago is now worth about 300k less than what we sold it for. It's to the point where we could buy the same house for less than we paid for it when we purchased it...too bad we couldn't unload OUR house now and move back there...

Economy is AWFUL. (Thank you Captain Obvious, I say to myself)

I have ALWAYS had a job and right now, have been applying everywhere for something parttime and I can't find ANYTHING. Very unusual for me. I need to be home with my kids after school (youngest teen is a fragile type 1)...however, can't seem to find work for the times i am just sitting around doing nothing. Unbelievable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
272. IKE
Thousands more lose their homes
Nearly 85,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released today. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate with one in every 74 homes receiving a foreclosure filing. CNNMoney reports a total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August 2007.


Jobless claims highest since Sept. 11 attacks
Unemployment filings surge to 516,000, number of Americans continuing on benefits at 25-year high.



What an economy*

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
271. IKE
Unbelievable.

Will the season ever really end?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

AL, 95, 2008111312, , BEST, 0, 206N, 623W, 25,


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Low level swirl Paloma is now in the GOM. how odd is that?


About three days ago.. the CMC had it happening.. with a slow regeneration, heading to the Panhandle.. but has since dropped it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

AL, 95, 2008111312, , BEST, 0, 206N, 623W, 25,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Low level swirl Paloma is now in the GOM. how odd is that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just finished looking at all of the models.. its isn't over yet, 2 show and 1 more supports another system in the Caribbean withing the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Invest 95?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snook ?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Out for a 10 miler run - going to check the beach and my best south facing spot. Lots of work at the barns -- so I'm just hoping I'll be able to get wet and catch some of this upcoming action.

Ike thanks for the temp forecaast, got all my barn buddies alert and watching this front. Forewarned we can catch the "weather induced" colic that affects horses sensitive to rapid weather change.

Being forewarned we probably saved LEO from life threatening colic the last front..... it's why I'm here year round & appreciate all you weather wizards!!!

See you in a bit!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Hey Ft.Pierce - a little snook fishing & a bit of surf --Life is GOOD!
Waves on the way
of course I'm jumping up & down w/glee - waist high waves -- my favorite..enough to ride without fearing "I'm gonna die".

Today, my favorite wind - Zephyr (south wind) is gently blowing - it's warm, humid, sunny with a scent of mexico in the air
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Well, it looks like Hurricane Season 2008 is just about over; both in actual dates and in activity. I just wanted to wish everyone on here a great holiday season and a great start into 2009, as I know go into "SNOWBIRD" mode with this site until the first formations next year.

I was mainly a lurker for the most part this year, but plan on being more active on here next year. Until then, best wishes to all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know were your getting that Paloma didn't do alot of damage, it devastated the Cayman islands.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
looks like we are going to get a little swell action on the east side, but I bet there is going to be a good snook bit saturday night before the cold front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, 54 F in Macon, Ga with showers and T-Storms, hope some of this will keep going up to N C, they really need it badly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
257. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
255. IKE
My forecast for Sunday and Sunday night....inland, Florida panhandle.

Sunday
Mostly sunny and cool. Highs around 58.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear and cold. Lows 30 to 35 inland...35 to 40 at the coast.


THIS AIRMASS
ARRIVING IS BETWEEN 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS LESS THAN A
5% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT IS NO WONDER THE
FORECAST IS GOING TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gomex Surfers of SWFLThe cold front will break the gomex flat spell. 1ft southy back today - stays till Saturday AM. This South windswell probably not big enough to ride (good for skim) --but keep your eye on the best S. Facers, Saturday surf comes up by afternoon behind the front. Waist high (plus ) from the NW. Saturday afternoon/Sunday 2-4ft from the NW with 20mph (plus ) winds. Monday leftovers 1-2ft. Secondary Front on tuesday - waves back up to waist high - Gulf temp presently 68 degrees, may go lower. Pull out the neoprene and get wet - no excuses!!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
interesting conversation last night, good read through the last two pages
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Good Morning, Waking up w/the a good cup of coffee, windows open --watching the dawn break through. Always find this time of day the best....love the quiet, with just a few birds beginning the morning chirps. Air feels a bit humid today. Hard to believe there is a cold front getting ready to visit SWFL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Rain for next three days here in VA Cold miserable rain bbl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherblog:
As far as retirement percentages go:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 5%
Edouard 0%
Fay 35%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 75%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 0%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 30%
Paloma 50%

And, as far as what I think will be upgraded post season:

Bertha- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
Dolly- Possibly a category 3 at Texas landfall
Fay- Possibly a hurricane over Florida
Gustav- Likely a category 5 before Cuba landfall
Omar- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
Paloma- Possibly a minimal category 5 or 150 mph category 4 at peak intensity

Also there were a few invests that I think reached TD/TS status and weren't officialy declared until a later time period or were left unnoticed. Examples; 94L in September I think was a subtropical/tropical depression/storm. And, possibly Fay, Kyle, and Arthur became a tropical storm/depression before it was actually officialy declared.

Any comments? By the way, this is all just my opinion...nothing else...

My percentages
Arthur .1%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 5%
Eduard .1%
Fay 49%
Gustav 100%*
Hanna 80%*
Ike 100% all the way*
Josephine 0%
Kyle 2%
Laura 0%
Marco .1%
Nana 0%
Omar 25%
Paloma 65%*
*=I think this storm is retiring
and I think they will only updates Bertha and Gustav
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do you guys remember hurricane Klaus?

That storm only caused 1 million dollars in damage and only 11 deaths but was retired.

I don't know why Dolly wouldn't be retired and possibly Fay.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
Hello!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

Named Storms: 16
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 4

Pre June: 0
June: 1
July: 2
August: 5
September: 6
October: 0
November: 1
December: 1


That's weird I predicted 16/7/4 this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A hybrid type system may form similar to olga of last year- the remnant circulation of olga combined with frontal energy to produce 78 mph hurricane force winds in the Tampa Bay Area at clearwater beach- OFFICIALLY in the NHC report.

I expect the remnant vorticity of paloma to do a similar rapid intensification once it hybridizes with the cold front, across with there is a massive temperature and pressure gradient per the GFS, an excellent gulf moisture fetch to help fuel rapid intensification of paloma's vorticity and cold front hybrid storm low pressure. Expect some bad weather in the southeast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Note on Visible/Rainbow Infrared Loops that
the Circulation from Paloma still is intact
south of west cuba and moving towards the gulf of mexico.

Florida Forecast:
Strong Cold Front on the way- significant horizontal temperature
gradient- From 88 to 63-68 for highs, 25 degree temperature difference in
highs. This over a very short area- as indicated by numerous close isobars on
the GFS model. Deep horizontal temperature gradient across the front,
along with deep pressure gradient across the front (as indicated by
numerous close isobars per GFS) and the high pressure system to
the west of it, will combine with and be enhanced by the remnant
vorticity, moisture, and energy of Paloma to produce a potent winter
storm over the Eastern United States.

With those factors in mind, it is exceedingly likely that winds of 30 mph
will develop ahead of the front; a strong squall line with enhanced vorticity
from paloma's remnant voriticity being sucked in should precede the front
with severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds in excess of 60 mph.
Finally, after the frontal passage, the tremendous temperature/pressure gradient
as illustrated by the GFS should help fuel strong northerly winds of 35 mph behind
the front, leading to cold air advection across the SE US and Florida. Wind chill
temperatures in the 30s may dip into interior central Florida by Monday or Tuesday.
These winds should quickly relax to about 10-20 mph once the cold high builds
over the southeast, and tranquil conditions will prevail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC: India Meteorological Department
5:30 AM IST November 13
========================================

  • Yesterday’s low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining southwest bay persists over the same region as a well marked low pressure area. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models indicate its initial west-northwestwards movement, leading to increase in rainfall activity over south peninsula.
  • Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
    gotta run...sorry
    Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    XD

    I was thinking the same thing. I believe it was you and I (correct me if I'm wrong) that had a discussion about this very thing just a few weeks ago.

    But honestly, I do like your idea of a retirement system.


    yup that was me. i had a rant day and i was writing like 500 word essays explaining my point, and then Orca summed it up in 10. This was before Paloma
    Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
    17 days 0 hrs 55 mins remain
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting KoritheMan:
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.


    I agree. I was just stating that the NHC/Dr. Masters had mentioned the possibility of Bertha/Omar briefly reaching Cat 4 status, so I'm not sure whether the NHC will make the call or not. Also, I 99% agree with what I put in bold except the fact that Fay's rain wasn't unheard of. I think it is very rare for a tropical cyclone to make landfall in the same state four times and usually flooding has been the main reason for retirement in a lot of past retired hurricanes/TS's-- Alisson, Stan, Noel, so I think there is a slim possibilty of retirement with Fay.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting hurristat:
    oh joy, this discussion again
    LOL : ) we should just agree to disagree, cause we never get anywhere


    XD

    I was thinking the same thing. I believe it was you and I (correct me if I'm wrong) that had a discussion about this very thing just a few weeks ago.

    But honestly, I do like your idea of a retirement system.
    Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
    Quoting hurristat:


    The thing is, the whole point of retiring hurricanes is because the name strikes fear into people. If Dolly did $2 trillion in damage and no one felt anything about it, they wouldn't retire it. What they should do is walk around the landfalling sites asking people on whether they should retire the name of the storm or not. If its higher than 50%, they should.


    Actually, this is a really good idea. I think they should start doing that when deciding whether or not to retire names.
    Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
    oh joy, this discussion again
    LOL : ) we should just agree to disagree, cause we never get anywhere
    Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
    Quoting KoritheMan:
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.


    The thing is, the whole point of retiring hurricanes is because the name strikes fear into people. If Dolly did $2 trillion in damage and no one felt anything about it, they wouldn't retire it. What they should do is walk around the landfalling sites asking people on whether they should retire the name of the storm or not. If its higher than 50%, they should.
    Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
    Quoting weatherblog:


    You may be right, but the NHC did mention with Bertha and Omar that they were briefly category fours. So, it is up to question I assume if they will actually be upgraded post-season or not. While Dolly does not have as much evidence of it being a category three, I think based on the impressive satelitte presentation, massive amount of damage it left, and some of the estimates made before it made landfall in Southern Texas may be enough to prove the point. The NHC is gonna have a tough time figuring out which storms to upgrade, because it seems almost every storm needs to be upgraded somehow or another.


    oops... didnt know the thing about the NHC mentioning that Bertha was a 4.
    Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.
    Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333

    Viewing: 283 - 233

    Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

    Top of Page

    About

    Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

    Local Weather

    Overcast
    35 °F
    Overcast

    JeffMasters's Recent Photos

    Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
    Sunset on Dunham Lake
    Pictured Rocks Sunset
    Sunset on Lake Huron