Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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we have 1 hour and 15 minutes left alot can happen till then....
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Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Cold air coming south


Lot of cold air diving down out of Canada next week,all the way to the gulf
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more than a 200 point gain now LOL
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I could use a bail out.....:)
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Cold air coming south
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377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

The active low pressure area east of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "TONYO".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
==============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 7.5ºN, 129.7ºE or 470 km east of Davao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60 kph winds)

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.Surigao del Norte
2.Dinagat
3.Siargao Islands
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Agusan del Norte
6.Agusan del Sur
7.Davao del Norte
8.Davao Oriental
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376. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number ONE
DEPRESSION BOB06-2008
17:30 PM IST November 13 2008
========================================

SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL

At 17:30 PM IST, The mornings low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas concentrated into a depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The Depression lays centered near 11.5N 85.5E or 600 kms east-southeast of Chennai, India and about 700 kms southeast of Machilipatnam.

Satellite imagery indicates organized convection and curve band pattern in associated with the system. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 11.0N to 14.5N and between 82.0E to 86.5E.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is betwen -40 to 60ºC. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 5 to 15 knots. Shear tendency is 5 to -10 knots to northwest of the system. The system lies close to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 14.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is about 28-29C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamil-Nadu/South Andhra Pradesh coasts.
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as of now the dow

8,384.84

102.18 ( 1.23%)

wow hope later we dont say ow
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WOOHOO

DOW
143.52
1.73%
8,426.18


lets through a ticker tape!!!! Back in the Black!!!











[sarcasm off]
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Quoting IKE:
DOW
37.75
+0.46%
8,320.41


Great news....strong economy.

Now...back to the tropics...


You must be in politics "The economy is strong,don't worry,we'll just bail out every business that asks for it.
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Quoting IKE:
DOW
37.75
+0.46%
8,320.41


Great news....strong economy.

Now...back to the tropics...


LOL it aint over till....









it's 4:oo PM ET/3:00 central
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Quoting TampaSpin:
95L has little to no chance coming to Florida with this cold front coming....
If it develops and thats a big if it would be up and out probably somewhere between the east coast and bermuda.
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Quoting weatherboyfsu:
...... New area above Puerta Rico....Interesting.... The models all have it as a fish storm......time will tell!





Well... us "fish" out here will be keeping an eye on it.
CRS
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369. IKE
DOW
37.75
+0.46%
8,320.41


Great news....strong economy.

Now...back to the tropics...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Afternoon people,

Remnants of Paloma pushing along and thru the eastern gulf......Isnt it cute? New area above Puerta Rico....Interesting.... The models all have it as a fish storm......time will tell!
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with 50 and 60knt shear over the swirl still nothing to worry about
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
I stand corrected low level cyclonic turning was looking at things backwards sorry
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Quoting Bonedog:
nothing in the low or mid levels just an ULL nothing to fear. Figured would jumpstart the blog. Guess not


the blog "died" when it was declared that TC season was over with the exception of an out to sea storm
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Quoting Seastep:
Geez. Even the F word didn't liven up the blog for weather talk.

Any comments on that quite vigorous and persistent swirl at 17N/59.5W?


You guys want to liven things up, then just start accusing man-kind of being indirectly responsible for everything potentially bad through anthropogenic global warming.

Watch this: AGW causes gay marriage bans.
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nothing in the low or mid levels just an ULL nothing to fear. Figured would jumpstart the blog. Guess not
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Leaving "office" for a bit. Got a crew I haven't heard from in a while and need to make sure they aren't asleep under a tree. Back later...
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Looks pretty well-defined...
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Looks like we have a little low pressure area forming up just off the coast of Texas and may move inland a bit. Will be interesting to have something to watch other than the cold fronts.
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356. RobDaHood

LOL Rob thats funny
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Rob thanks for the prayers.
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Quoting Bonedog:
awwww how cute



LOL reminds me of Marco (in terms of cuteness)
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354. Bonedog
awwww how cute

ssshhhh! she's sleeping. Don't tease her or she might wake up and pitch a fit.
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95L has little to no chance coming to Florida with this cold front coming....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
awwww how cute

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Quoting Seastep:
347. RobDaHood

LOL. Just trying to draw some lurkers out.

Hey, HWRF brings a wicked TD almost to FL! ;)


LOL wicked TD

should be a great party then
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348. Bonedog

Wish I could do more, but will be sending positive thoughts and best wishes your way.
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347. RobDaHood

LOL. Just trying to draw some lurkers out.

Hey, HWRF brings a wicked TD almost to FL! ;)
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Quoting RobDaHood:
343. Seastep

LOL - Possible threat....that I might need a blanket Sunday night?


maybe you should WU mail the people you know to give attention to 95L

don't know if it'll work but worth a try
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Rob yea been watching that area already, some models showed non tropical development along the cold front early next week then moving it NE.

NE that sucks. Have family that went through the layoffs and are now scrambeling to find new jobs. These were midlevel execs at Bear Sterns now working at Walmart and such. Also I am watching my retierment dry up faster then a swirl stuck in the SAL.
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343. Seastep

LOL - Possible threat....that I might need a blanket Sunday night?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
Geez. Even the F word didn't liven up the blog for weather talk.

Any comments on that quite vigorous and persistent swirl at 17N/59.5W?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
no floater on the invest yet.......


Strange, wonder why?
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342. NEwxguy

Maybe this will work....

Possible threat to FLORIDA.
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Hey,Bone,trying to get them off the subject,we're having layoffs at my company and trying to divert my attention to something else,like the weather
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Im depressed, no hurricane threats out there & my 401k is way down.
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no floater on the invest yet.......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
ONe last thing on the Economy then back to weather......but, i wish everyone understood what the Chinesse Gov. did the being of last year......they started buying up all the Gold they could buy....then they installed a new law on Exports that caused a 30% increase on cost of goods shipped out of their country....that 30% increase has hit the US Corporate Manufacturing Sector for a loop....big time....ok enough BAck to weather
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
invest has an environment good for slow development

what do any of you think?

I say TS at peak
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333. Bonedog

Hey Bone!

Think this is one for you to keep an eye on. At this point I don't anticipate huge development, but at a glance, what energy there is could slide up the coast and give you some more of that cold and nasty you've been seeing the last few weeks.

Then again, we're talking about "front bumpage" (my new weather word) which is always hard to forecast.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
hey NE hows things up your way?

chilly and rainy here
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Quoting Bonedog:
Afternoon folks.

See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.


Haha
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CRS - and I subtracted incorrectly... it's 17:15GMT, so actually 5:15pm.
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Afternoon folks.

See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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