Category 4 Paloma pounds the Cayman Islands, heads to Cuba
Hurricane Paloma exploded into a extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds last night as it hammered the Cayman Islands. Paloma now ranks as the second most powerful November hurricane on record, and stands poised to deliver Cuba a devastating blow tonight. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellites indicate that Paloma has probably peaked in strength, and will slowly weaken today. Visible satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west are starting to restrict the upper-level outflow on the west side of the storm, though the hurricane still has impressive organization and a well-formed eye. Infrared satellite loops show that the hurricane's cloud tops are warming, indicating weakening. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission departed the storm at 6:30 am EST, and the next mission should arrive about 1 pm EST. Radar from Camaguey, Cuba shows no evidence that the shear has weakened the eyewall of Paloma. There is evidence to suggest the hurricane may be forming a concentric eyewall, which would act to spread the hurricane's winds over a larger area and increase the region affected by a high storm surge.
Paloma's impact on the Cayman Islands
A strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast began pulling Paloma to the northeast late last night. Paloma's turn to the northeast came earlier than originally forecast, much to the advantage of Grand Cayman Island, but much to the detriment of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac islands. The earlier turn also allowed Paloma to stay just south of the higher levels of wind shear that would have weakened the hurricane. The eye of Paloma passed just east of Grand Cayman, and the strongest eyewall winds barely missed the island. Winds at the Grand Cayman airport on the west end of the island peaked out at 46 mph gusting to 62 mph at 7 pm EST, though winds were close to hurricane force on the east end of the island. Preliminary news reports indicate that the island suffered some flooding, but no major wind damage or storm surge.
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac were not so lucky. There are reports of heavy damage on the islands, which received a long battering by the northern eyewall of Paloma. Cayman Brac, which lies a little farther south than Little Cayman, took a direct hit, with the calm of the eye lasting several hours. Ironically, today is the anniversary of the deadly 1932 hurricane that flattened Cayman Brac, killing 69 people.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Paloma at 9 am EST Saturday November 8, 2008. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
The forecast
A strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the northeast, and this trough should continue to pull the storm across Cuba tonight and into the Bahama Islands on Sunday. Wind shear is a high 25 knots, and is expected to increase to 35 knots tonight and 45 knots on Sunday. Paloma should not be able to intensify any further under this kind of shear, though it may be able to hold on to its current intensity until tonight, since it will take some time for the increasing shear to be able to penetrate into the heart of such a powerful, well-formed vortex and disrupt it. Landfall tonight in Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds is a good bet, which is the forecast of the latest 12Z SHIPS intensity model. The HWRF model foresees a Catgeory 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds at landfall in Cuba, while the GFDL calls for a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Regardless of its intensity at landfall, Paloma will bring an exceptionally high storm surge of 17-23 feet to the coast of Cuba, since the hurricane has set a large volume of ocean in motion with its Category 4 winds. There is also a large area of shallow water just offshore the south coast of Cuba that will allow the storm surge to pile up to a great height. Cuba will take a terrific pounding from Paloma, and damage from the triple crunchings delivered by Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma will make 2008 the worst hurricane season in Cuban history. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 2.6 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 2.5 on a scale of 1 to 6. The relatively low storm surge potential is misleading, since Paloma is headed toward a portion of the Cuban coast that is highly prone to storm surge.
Passage over Cuba combined with extremely high values of wind shear should tear apart Paloma before it reaches the central and southeastern Bahamas. The HWRF, GFDL, and SHIPS intensity models are all calling for Paloma to dissipate or be a tropical storm or tropical depression by the time it arrives in the Bahamas on Sunday, and this is a reasonable forecast. Paloma has virtually no chance of surviving long enough to threaten Florida.
Links to follow
Radar from Camaguey, Cuba
Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba weather
A new record for the hurricane season of 2008
This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months. This year's record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November.
Paloma is now the second strongest November hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Hurricane Lenny of 1999, a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds, was the strongest November hurricane on record. Paloma shares second place with Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph) and Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph).
I'll have an update Sunday, possibly not until the afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Weather Summary (1800z 09NOV)
============================================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAYSAK (T0819)
16.0ºN 116.0ºE - 25 knots 1000 hPa
reported as moving south slowly
Cayman Brac bulletin board
also Cayman Net News Online
POST-PALOMA UPDATES
"By Friday night...a reinforcing front will move through the
midsouth. This will bring very cold air into the midsouth for next
weekend. Models are showing 850 temperatures of -8 to -10. This will make
today seem warm if this holds true. The GFS is even putting out some
flurries across northwest Tennessee on Saturday as a shortwave moves
through the region. Now this may not happen but do expect the
coldest air of the season for next weekend as models have been
showing this for the last couple of days."
Much colder Friday night into sun west/ some
wrap-around r- possible NE sections.
wrap-around r- as in...snow.
Probably Monday.
EDIT>>> Okay...I see where he wrote it might be this afternoon.
Snow :)
Get ready...winter-like weather looks to invade the eastern USA....
6-10 day temperature outlook....
Hmm looks like it will be cool in Florida, and even cooler on the panhandle. BeachFoxx might like some snow?
Wasn't that what we all thought right before Omar and after Omar?
Do you think 94L still has a chance of becoming Rene?
very true
oh my goodness that is my old stomping grounds the Memphis area.. they rarely get snow before Thanksgiving..heck they rarely get snow.. usually one or two ice storms a year LOL
thanks.
Mirror Site (New Format)
Florida...LOL
Will check in later tonight to see if the night crew shows...
That would be the one.. waiting for someone to say that 94L is rebuilding and heading to the "F" word.
yeah, where the heck is eddye?...uhm, sorry, schools are open in dade and broward tomorrow...LOL
l8tr
He is probably crying because of Paloma's death.
Lol.
Eddye:
"Why did you leave me Paloma! Why ? Why? Why!!!!!!!!!!!!! :'(
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA...LOCATED INLAND
NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA.
AN NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
84 more advisories and it's finished.
886. Chicklit They are much better prepared to deal with this type of weather than we are in the states...my understanding...with many of us, it's "it won't happen to me" with them it's more like "only a matter of time...they will still have a long row to hoe before things are back to normal.
Been looking pretty pitiful all day...nowhere to go that it doesn't encounter pretty significant shear
Orca, saw today that the Pacific NW was getting a little foul weather, are you getting any of that?
When do we get it, Bud ?
Hey zoo, pretty nice, huh? Been loving it.
14 hours ago
CAMAGUEY, Cuba (AFP) — Storm-weary Cuba assessed the damage Sunday from Hurricane Paloma, which pounded the island just weeks after deadly storms Gustav and Ike claimed hundreds of lives and exacted millions of dollars in rebuilding costs.
Paloma was gentler than its two predecessors except in a few regions, including hard-hit Santa Cruz, which felt the full force of the storm's Category Three 200-kilometer (125-mile) per hour winds late Saturday.
"I've never seen anything so destructive in the 40 years I've been living here," Sandra Salazar, a technician with Cuba's telephone company, told AFP, describing the fury of the storm.
Hurricane Paloma wrecks hundreds of homes in Cuba
By ANNE-MARIE GARCIA – 1 hour ago
CAMAGUEY, Cuba (AP) — Crashing waves and a powerful sea surge from Hurricane Paloma destroyed hundreds of homes along Cuba's southern coast, but the storm rapidly weakened into a tropical depression Sunday as it moved over the island.
Early damage reports were limited, but state media said the late-season storm toppled a major communications tower, interrupted electricity and phone service and sent sea water almost a mile (1 1/2 kilometers) inland, ravaging a coastal community near where it made landfall.
No storm-related deaths were immediately reported.
Officials had feared that Paloma could slow Cuba's recovery from Gustav and Ike, devastating hurricanes that struck earlier this year, causing about $9.4 billion in damage and destroying nearly a third of the island's crops.
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