Tropical Depression 17 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:33 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

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An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has arrived in the area of disturbed weather 150 miles southeast of the northeastern tip of Nicaragua and found Tropical Depression 17 has formed. The aircraft found a broad center of low pressure with top winds at flight level (600-1000 feet) of 30 mph. The central pressure was 1004 mb, and the plane did see two squalls of 54-58 mph winds at the surface with their SFMR instrument. Visible satellite images have shown a significant increase in the intensity and areal coverage of the heavy thunderstorm activity this afternoon. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and the latest microwave image from the TRMM satellite shows that low-level spiral bands are beginning to form, though the center of the storm remains broad.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 17.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear has dropped to a low 5 knots this afternoon, and is expected to remain very low, 0-5 knots, over the next two days. Water temperatures are warm, 29°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification--if the storm avoids passing too close to land near the northeast coast of Nicaragua. The latest (12Z, 7am EST) runs of both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will not interact will land enough to weaken the storm, and predict TD 17 will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane, and strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by landfall Sunday morning in central Cuba. The SHIPS intensity model is less aggressive, predicting a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds by Saturday. I give TD 17 a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane, and a 40% chance of becoming a major hurricane. The storm has the potential to imitate Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Michelle formed in the same region at the same time of year, and took just three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle made landfall in central Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas.

The track forecast
A slow north-northwest motion to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border is likely for TD 17 through Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. There is some uncertainty whether this trough will be strong enough to lift TD 17 northwards across Cuba. Two major models, the NOGAPS and GFS, predict that TD 17 will be too weak to "feel" the influence of this trough, and they keep the storm trapped in the Caribbean near Honduras and Nicaragua. If this solution is correct, a major rain event for northern Nicaragua and Honduras is possible, with heavy rains of 5-10 inches likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm would likely intensify to a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, depending upon how much interaction with land occurs. On the other hand, the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models predict that TD 17 will be strong enough to feel the trough. These models predict a northward motion through the Cayman Islands on Saturday, followed by a northeast turn and a landfall in central or eastern Cuba on Sunday morning. On Sunday afternoon, TD 17 would then pass through the central Bahamas as it accelerates to the northeast. These models predict a deeper, stronger storm that is more likely to feel the influence of the trough. The UKMET model is between these two solutions, and predicts TD 17 will get stranded in the Western Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba.

Given the current increasing trend in organization, I believe TD 17 will grow deep enough and strong enough to get pulled northward by the trough. The storm should move through the Cayman Islands on Saturday and across central or eastern Cuba on Sunday, as the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models are predicting. There is the potential that the storm could enter a period of rapid intensification on Saturday, bringing it to major hurricane status. Residents of the Cayman Islands, western Jamaica, and central and western Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane--affecting them Saturday and Sunday. If TD 17 crosses Cuba as expected and moves into the Bahamas, it will weaken due to the interaction with land and the presence of very high wind shear of 30-50 knots just north of Cuba. These effects should weaken the storm by at least 40 mph before it passes through the Bahamas. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 17 could be a Category 2 hurricane in the Bahamas, but I think a Category 1 hurricane is more likely.

Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 83W

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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560. surfmom
4:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Jersey getting waves, Ft. Pierce/EC FL is getting waves.... I still be flat ..... The sun is finally out after two days of GRAY! Nice cool temp. made for an excellent morning run... the sunrise was so beautiful, and as I ran on the beach the gulf so sweet. so peaceful -- I couldn't fuss about the lack of waves... all I could see was the paradise of my shores and enjoy what IS.

Candle lit for those in the path of paloma

Crows, 1/2 dozen in the broiler w/feathers -- never thought we'd get another exercise/lesson in Canes this season....maybe the cat will help me eat it.
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559. Bonedog
3:26 PM GMT on November 06, 2008






those are the microwave images I was refering to in my previous post
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558. 786
3:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
New blog
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557. Seastep
3:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Good morning all.

Funktop:



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556. Bonedog
3:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2008


I think its a shadow BUT I will say looking at the microwave images that is where the central structure shows. Have to watch as the day goes on.
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555. 786
3:20 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
what is the standard pressure of a cat. 1 hurricane
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554. amd
3:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
latest visible satellite pictures suggest that an eye-like feature may be forming 80 miles off to the ene of the nicaragua (sp?)/honduras border.

Link



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553. Orcasystems
3:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
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552. pearlandaggie
3:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
551. foggymyst
3:06 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
thanks cybrteddy.
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550. pearlandaggie
3:03 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
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549. CybrTeddy
2:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting foggymyst:
Are the models in argeement that Paloma will stay south bc of the trough and make the sharp turn NE?


Not all of them
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548. foggymyst
2:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Are the models in argeement that Paloma will stay south bc of the trough and make the sharp turn NE?
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547. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Im sure Kman will have an update for us later.

He must be doing the Lawyer thing this am.
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546. stillwaiting
2:45 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
there's an eye already!!!!!,although it looks to be open...
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545. IKE
2:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Morning Ike..seems Paloma is going to make a run at Cane Status.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link


Should it be the Season Swan Song?


Good morning.

Looks like the Caymans get a hit again w/a hurricane.

BBL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
544. IKE
2:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
543. Patrap
2:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Morning Ike..seems Paloma is going to make a run at Cane Status.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link


Should it be the Season Swan Song?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
542. CybrTeddy
2:41 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
From new Discussion 10 AM:
RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
541. CybrTeddy
2:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
New Advisory in, Up to 45 MPH, with a very low 998 MB pressure. No longer forcasted to become a Category 2, but I doubt that it wont, the NHC's just following what the model's generally say.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
540. Patrap
2:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
RainBow Image


Enhancement Descriptions:
Abbreviation Full Name Description
AVN
Aviation color enhancement
BD
Dvorak Dvorak enhancement - used for Tropical Classifications with the Dvorak Technique
FT
Funktop Funktop enhancement - developed by Ted Funk for assistance with Precipitation analysis
IR2
Shortwave Channel 2 Infrared imagery - Shortwave, sometimes considered "night visible"
IR4
Unenhanced Channel 4 Infrared Imagery
JSL
JSL2 enhancement - developed by Jim Lynch for use with tropical classifications
RB
Rainbow Rainbow enhancement curve - pretty color enhancement
RGB
Combination of Visible and IR using a three channel technique to make features stand out
VIS
Visible Unenhanced Visible imagery that transitions to IR2 overnight.
WV
Water Vapor Infrared Channel 3 with color enhancement
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
539. IKE
2:39 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. BANDING
FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1800Z TO PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE.

WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING INNER
CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG IN 60-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY
THAT PALOMA WOULD GET STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN OFFICIAL
FORECAST TIMES AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF STILL
FORECAST THE STORM TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BASED ON THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW... IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT WAY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY
ON. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
PALOMA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERTICALLY-
COHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...PALOMA SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IN A SPEEDY FASHION...SIMILAR TO THE
SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL RIP PALOMA APART...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS SHOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE FORECAST REASONING THAT
PALOMA WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED
AFTER 72 HR WILL BE STILL BE SLOWER THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE
INDICATING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.6N 82.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 82.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.3N 82.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.5N 80.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 22.5N 76.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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538. Patrap
2:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
T.S. Paloma NOAA Image Page(Floater) Link

JSL Tropical Image Channel 13:45 UTC

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537. Bonedog
2:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2008


Paloma has nice structure under those clouds
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536. IKE
2:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA STRENGTHENING...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...115 KM...NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...4 TO 8 OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...15.6 N...82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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535. Patrap
2:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Large Scale WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
534. Orcasystems
2:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Click to enlarge








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533. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
T.S. Paloma
Nov 6 UTC Model Output Link

Advisory 3 NHC Track and forecast Link

GOES-12 WV CH-3 loop With Dry Air Shaded Link
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531. Bonedog
2:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2008


better shot now of the Nor'Easter suns up higher snd we can see the features clearer now.
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530. stillwaiting
2:26 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:


Last two days were forecast to be sunny here by nws and partly cloudy by WU...Had this wierd overcast 1000 to 3000 ft. Never saw the sun, just a damp north wind. only mid to lower 60's but I got a chill from it yesterday and felt cold all day. surfmom said reminded her of northern weather. Blue skies today, finally.

Today is airport day, so I'll be too busy to chat much this morning...hope everyone has a good day.



I grew up in CT and the last 2 days here in sarasota the weather seemed very odd and reminded me of the weather in NE when I was younger!!!
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529. Bonedog
2:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
hope your day goes well too Rob.

Glad you have nice weather though
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
528. stillwaiting
2:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Should be an interesting morning....Paloma has lots of wormy variables for the morning birds to pick at


tweet-tweet...good morning!!!!!
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527. weathers4me
2:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
November 23 1988 Keith started in this same area in the carib and made landfall South of Tampa. If 93 eludes the front, things could get interesting.
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526. RobDaHood
2:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
...Soggy damp and windy...


Last two days were forecast to be sunny here by nws and partly cloudy by WU...Had this wierd overcast 1000 to 3000 ft. Never saw the sun, just a damp north wind. only mid to lower 60's but I got a chill from it yesterday and felt cold all day. surfmom said reminded her of northern weather. Blue skies today, finally.

Today is airport day, so I'll be too busy to chat much this morning...hope everyone has a good day.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30630
525. Bonedog
2:15 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
reading the link North Atlantic ACE is way above mean though. Currently 132.3 and we now have Paloma so the number will go up.
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523. Orcasystems
2:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
ROFLMAO.. same same.. are we surfing the same places
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522. Orcasystems
2:10 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
"Northern Hemisphere" Tropical Cyclone Activity Lowest in 30 years
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521. pearlandaggie
2:09 PM GMT on November 06, 2008


Record inactivity continues: Past 24-months of Northern Hemisphere TC activity (ACE) lowest in 30-years

very interesting...obviously, though, if there is only one hurricane all year long and it hits your house, record hurricane inactivity doesn't mean a whole lot.
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520. 19N81W
1:55 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
not looking as impressive this morning...and is it me or does it look like perhaps Paloma (bad name) is not recurving east like the models have been forcasting for the last 24-36 hours?
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519. Bonedog
1:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Yea Rob started here yesterday. Soggy damp and windy nothing major 10-15 gusting 20 just enough to give you that chill.

Isnt moving fast at all though. Nice wave maker here 8 to 11 breakers 14 to 21 over the open ocean.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
518. Orcasystems
1:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)

Area of Interest ... TS Paloma
Hurricane Hunter & Vortex Reports ... TS Paloma
Satellite Picture ... TS Paloma
TS Paloma Landfall Points... Kman's, On Scene Reporter Location
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517. RobDaHood
1:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
508. Bonedog

Mornin' Bone,

Nice image, I've been keeping half an eye on that one this week, looks like you're in for a little nasty weather for the next 2-3 days. Try and stay dry.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30630
516. ftpiercecane
1:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
looks like the east coast is going to have a swell maker next week. hopefully this doesn't intensify into a major, that area has had it bad this season
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
515. hurricanelover236
1:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
I hope this thing bams south florida. And you all should hope for it too because no matter how muchh you hope it wont happen. This storm will be swept out long before florida and even if it hit it would give you some beneficial rains.
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 183
514. TheCaneWhisperer
1:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Morning All. Interesting TCDA, seems a lot of uncertainties yet.

513. Bonedog
1:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2008


impressive windfield with the Nor'Easter as well
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
512. kmanhurricaneman
1:29 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
BBL
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511. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Morning all

494. hurricane23
Water vapor loop tells the story....

Thanks... this picture worth more than 1000 words.

CRS
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510. WxLogic
1:10 PM GMT on November 06, 2008
Quoting KendallHurricane:
extreme southeast florida is on the 5 day cone, but i cannot help to understand how they can say we have no significant rain chances but with how large paloma is and how north its going to move how is that possible?????


Shear... is one of the reason why you have low chances and also the subsidence around the periphery of a TS. These 2 combined should produce a rather dry pattern accross SFL unless Paloma manages to head rather close to FL then you'll see rain chances being higher.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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