Caribbean disturbance 93L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2008

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An area of disturbed weather (93L) a few hundred miles east of the Nicaraguan coast, is growing more organized, and has the potential to develop into a tropical storm this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed that the circulation center near 12N 81W is better defined and is more circular. However, visible satellite images show that the heaviest thunderstorm activity is about 200 miles to the north of the center, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. It appears that the center of circulation is now attempting to relocate near the heaviest thunderstorms, somewhere near 14N 81W. This relocation will make last night's model runs a poor judge of how 93L might develop. The disturbance has been drifting west-northwest to northwest over the past 18 hours. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and heavy thunderstorm activity has shown a moderate increase in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the next three days. Water temperatures are warm, 29.5°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are favorable conditions for intensification, and both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will become a hurricane, with the HWRF predicting a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS intensity model predicts only a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds. I give 93L a 40% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Steering currents are weak, but a slow northwest motion to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border is likely through Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. The models are split on whether this trough will be strong enough to pull 93L northward. The GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models predict the trough will turn 93L northward then northeastward, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands by Saturday and Jamaica by Sunday. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models disagree, bringing 93L ashore over northern Nicaragua by Friday, and keeping the storm trapped near the north coast of Honduras through Monday. Given the probable center re-formation 200 miles to the north currently underway, the more northerly threat to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica appears to be the more likely scenario.

Given the current increasing trend in organization, I believe 93L will become a tropical depression on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Paloma by Thursday. NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras are at risk of heavy rains from 93L beginning Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are likely through Thursday in the region. These heavy rains may spread westward to the Belize border by Friday, if the storm resists being pulled northward by the trough. Panama and Costa Rica should receive only another 1-2 inches. Heavy rains will likely move into the Cayman Islands and Jamaica on Wednesday or Thursday, and may affect Cuba by Friday and Haiti by Saturday. Currently, no models are showing a threat to Florida or the Bahamas from 93L, but that could change with the next set of model runs, after the center re-formation is taken into account. The first Hurricane Hunter flight into 93L is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 84W

I'll have an update Wednesday morning, or later today if there's a major change to report. It's time to go vote!

Jeff Masters

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549. Seastep
7:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
204 above

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thanks. He was only 19 years old; my age. Such a nice person. In my mind, the worst thing is that he was the passenger in the car and the driver survived. Been quite an emotional past week for me. Thats why I've been absent for quite some time from the blogs.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
548. Seastep
7:57 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
176 above

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Decided that I'll be returning to weather now after taking some needed time off to deal with my emotions and the loss of a friend in a car accident.

Now, I see that Invest 93L is the only game in town. In performing some quick analysis here, this disturbance has a well-defined low level circulation with increasing convection building near the center. During the day, an upper-level anticyclone has become established over the system, providing for better outflow and more favorable shear, as evident by the latest CIMSS Shear Analysis Product. You can also see this upper-level anticyclone using the Water Vapor Loop. Also in analyzing the latest water vapor imagery, I have been noticing moisture continuing to increase, which suggests that additional convection will build throughout the night.

Now, in regards to the latest computer model runs, I will have to see further runs as these are the first runs coming through with the center relocation that occured late this morning. As with all invests, I find it hard to trust model guidance with both track and intensity since, as so perfectly exemplified today, the center positions can always relocate around, and often do so when a system is in this stage of development. So, until this becomes Tropical Depression 17, I will continue taking model guidance with a grain of salt.

But, all in all, based upon the current satellite trends and latest data, I'm in high agreement with Dr. Masters that this disturbance will develop further and quite possibly into Tropical Storm Paloma before the weekend.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
547. 7544
6:41 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
been watching this the last 3 days and it keeps bringing 93l further north each day before it turns ne and now with this run it puts 93l right over southern part fla could this be where the other modeles will follow in the next run .

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
546. kmanhurricaneman
5:04 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
beats me why they take so long to clasify systems, this 93l is a td by virtue of all ingreidents,kmanislander it has always been a fear of mine that a sytem hits from the south i share the same concerns you and i know what a strong Nwester does to town so just imagine magnifying this by 3 brrrrr!!, lets hope it does not develop that strong and only be a rain event
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
545. kmanhurricaneman
4:44 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
heloo every one, stopping in to check and i dont like what i am seeing!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
544. kmanislander
2:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
541. Orcasystems 2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

What I would be concerned about is that a storng system coming up from the SW would throw high seas and surge onshore the West coast which is our prime 7 mile beach with all the multi million dollar condos and hotels like the Ritz etc.

The West coast is a half moon that would trap water incoming and drive it across the narrow isthmus that connects Goerge Town to West Bay. At certain spots that isthmus is only a few hundred feet wide before you hit water on the East side of it being the North Sound.

There would also be a high risk of substantial damage to the capitol of George Town which has open deep water all the way in to the shore on the SW coast.

This will have to be watched very carefully.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
543. Orcasystems
2:43 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
542. Dakster
2:41 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting SSideBrac:


Do NOT like that!!


I hope that model is the EXTREME OUTLIER... And that it stays away from Florida.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10280
541. Orcasystems
2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting kmanislander:
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !




GFDL is the yellow one
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
540. kmanislander
2:34 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Basically has to go over your house to get there doesn't it?


Not really based upon the run you posted. The closet point to Grand Cayman shown by the GFDL is about 40 miles West of us. The pass near our sister islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman is closer at a higher intensity.

Until it develops though I take the models with several grains of salt.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
539. SSideBrac
2:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Look at Frame 15 on the GFDL model, 111 Knots before Cuban landfall


Do NOT like that!!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
538. Orcasystems
2:30 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting kmanislander:
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !


Basically has to go over your house to get there doesn't it?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
537. stormpetrol
2:29 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
I sure don't like they way the models are all coming in agreement on the track of 93L , doesn't bode well for us here in The Caymans.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
536. kmanislander
2:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
535. SpicyAngel1072
2:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
The CMC is the only one that does not look to making it very strong and the path is different also.
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
534. foggymyst
2:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Gotcha Orca-thanks.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
533. SpicyAngel1072
2:10 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
ok now I see orca. thanks! :)

There sure is a difference in 2 of models vs. the other 2.
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
532. Orcasystems
2:08 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, thanks. That only depend of the strength of the trough, correct? And if so..do you know the strength and timing of it?


I wish.. way out of my pay grade.. thats a question for guys like StormW and the forecasters.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
531. foggymyst
2:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Orca, thanks. That only depend of the strength of the trough, correct? And if so..do you know the strength and timing of it?
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
530. Orcasystems
1:58 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca-Except for the last having 93l coming close to the keys, Florida..for now seems to be clear.


Thats true, only the CMC takes it close to the Keys & S Florida
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
529. Orcasystems
1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting kmanislander:
Deep convection is now building right over the center of 93L for the first time. In the absence of moving onshore Nicaragua I expect this will go on to be classified a TD later today. The 850 vort signature is very strong and both convergence and divergence are well established. High pressure is sitting right over the system and water is warm and deep.

Every ingredient in favour of additional development is present.


Look at Frame 15 on the GFDL model, 111 Knots before Cuban landfall
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
528. foggymyst
1:55 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Orca-Except for the last having 93l coming close to the keys, Florida..for now seems to be clear.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
527. kmanislander
1:51 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Deep convection is now building right over the center of 93L for the first time. In the absence of moving onshore Nicaragua I expect this will go on to be classified a TD later today. The 850 vort signature is very strong and both convergence and divergence are well established. High pressure is sitting right over the system and water is warm and deep.

Every ingredient in favour of additional development is present.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
526. Orcasystems
1:49 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
93L not looking like it will effect FL....yeah!

But I feel bad for those is it going to effect.

Orca...what models are showing strong intensity? I thought it was only going to be a TD or weak TS..


Link

Link

Link

Link

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
525. MisterJohnny
1:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Good Morning Senior Chief
524. KBH
1:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
oh yeah, just seeing some TS activity, don't think it has the staying power to provide anything much but heavy rains,.. that could be a major problem for that area as I am sure they have large areas of swampy lands from a few weeks ago
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
523. SpicyAngel1072
1:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
93L not looking like it will effect FL....yeah!

But I feel bad for those is it going to effect.

Orca...what models are showing strong intensity? I thought it was only going to be a TD or weak TS..
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
522. RTLSNK
1:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
BBL, gardens need attention.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20940
521. Orcasystems
1:23 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting KBH:
elections are over, congrats to all, unlucky for some,.. now what about the weather, is hurricane season over as yet?


Umm 93L?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
520. KEHCharleston
1:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Have a good day folks - Will be checking back in to see how 93L is progressing.



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
519. KBH
1:21 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
elections are over, congrats to all, unlucky for some,.. now what about the weather, is hurricane season over as yet?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
515. Orcasystems
1:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh, and before I leave (or get banned for total politics . . . lol) I'm not very happy with potential hurricane Paloma crossing Cuba into Bahamian waters. . . . .


I have to admit.. if you look at the models.. they seem to have an intensity problem.. at least i hope they do.. some are showing it being very intense.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
514. WxLogic
1:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Well... as expected 93L is starting to look more like a TD. I will give it another 12 to 24 hours to get it self a bit more organized before I could declare it a TD.

Current Outflow is improving on the W perifery and expanding as the ULAC gets better established in this region. Finally, we have some good low level convergence starting to setup along with a pretty decent mid level vortex.

Definitely it will be interesting to see how things play out. In regards movement I will still call a N to NW fashion for the time being as there's still discrepancies in regards the building High accross the SE states.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
512. BahaHurican
1:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Oh, and before I leave (or get banned for total politics . . . lol) I'm not very happy with potential hurricane Paloma crossing Cuba into Bahamian waters. . . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
511. mlauth
1:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning folks,

I have been voting for a long time (if I told you how long I would have to kill you). This is the most exciting election in which I have ever participated . Though SC went McCain, Charleston County went Obama.

For those of you received the emails warning about the evils of Obama, I checked each with snopes (A friend sent them to me for giggles). They were all debunked (even the emails that said snopes would confirm) So, relax, the anit-christ has not arrived

High 60's and cloudy - was misty and breezy while I stood in line yesterday. Vote time 2 hours 15 minutes. Everyone was in a fine mood, and understood the unprecedented numbers voting. How long did it take y'all to vote?


Here in Columbia, SC i went to the polls around 3:00pm and i was only in line for 38 minutes. Now a friend of mine voted at the same location in the morning and he was in line for 3 hours :-0 ... I think the elections went well. I was one of those voters that really didnt like either person but i do think we will be better off without Bush.. just my point of view
Member Since: December 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
510. BahaHurican
1:08 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Agreed.. 100%
Its one thing to disagree with the results with a valid retort. Its another to make a post like btw, which is based on BS and personal prejudice.

I own a few small business's and trust me.. it hurts right now.. and its going to hurt even more for you guys for the next year or so. The mess down there right now is unbelievable.
To me, this is a troll thing. People who will come on here and post that kind of stuff about Obama or McCain will be just as comfortable posting similar vilifying comments about blog members and generally turning the blog into a morass of dogfights.

You know, until this morning I had a completely empty ignore list. Congrats, BTW, u are a winner!!!!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
509. Orcasystems
1:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
498 Orca
You're on dude.

495 Surfmom
Why would I put my boat on a boat that sinks???
That's like getting on a plane that crashes.
:>)


Don't forget jumping out of a perfectly good aeroplane for no apparent reason.

Now there is a business that would thrive.. owning a Ferry service to Cuba.. cha ching.

OK.. does anyone else see the track of 93l shifting slowly north of the suggested tracks?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
508. surfmom
1:04 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
out for a while - everyone is at their feeding stations....cats, dog, chickens are squawking, and burly young males attacking the cinnamon coffee...

The sun is back -- and me too in a while

and yes we & the world have a big mess to clean up.....we live in fascinating times.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
507. theshepherd
12:59 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
498 Orca
You're on dude.

495 Surfmom
Why would I put my boat on a boat that sinks???
That's like getting on a plane that crashes.
:>)
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
506. surfmom
12:58 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
#502 - Lovely, well-stated
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
505. Orcasystems
12:58 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Orca was objecting to the high level of animosity and lack of veracity in btw's post. YOUR post is sane, and lays out what are reasonably valid reasons for concern on your part. While I don't think you have as much to worry about as a small businessperson as, say, a Fortune500 company does when it comes to taxes, you are not vilifying Obama's PERSON and implying that he won't "be around" to run for re-election. It's not the disagreement, it's the tone.


Agreed.. 100%
Its one thing to disagree with the results with a valid retort. Its another to make a post like btw, which is based on BS and personal prejudice.

I own a few small business's and trust me.. it hurts right now.. and its going to hurt even more for you guys for the next year or so. The mess down there right now is unbelievable.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
504. BahaHurican
12:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting Robin08:
Sorry for the rant but very frustrating. Started out in business in 1995 with just my husband and I. Now have 25 employees who depend on their job but have to do what I can to survive. Will see how it goes.
I think you are going to make it. Now that you will HAVE to live with Obama as president, I STRONGLY suggest you go and read through his tax and economic plans. There are three or four really good articles that compare the tax, health, and economic policies proposed by Obama and McCain that do a good job of explaining what each intended to do in fairly straightforward terms.

I know you feel pessimistic about things, but maybe they won't be as bad as you think. (U can tell I am a glass-half-full person LOL.)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
502. BahaHurican
12:52 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Quoting Robin08:

Orca I have respected you but I understand btw1982 frustration. My husband and I own a small business under O'bama there will be more unemployment. em>
I think Orca was objecting to the high level of animosity and lack of veracity in btw's post. YOUR post is sane, and lays out what are reasonably valid reasons for concern on your part. While I don't think you have as much to worry about as a small businessperson as, say, a Fortune500 company does when it comes to taxes, you are not vilifying Obama's PERSON and implying that he won't "be around" to run for re-election. It's not the disagreement, it's the tone.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
501. KEHCharleston
12:51 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Good morning folks,

I have been voting for a long time (if I told you how long I would have to kill you). This is the most exciting election in which I have ever participated . Though SC went McCain, Charleston County went Obama.

For those of you who received emails warning about the evils of Obama, I checked each with snopes (A friend sent them to me for giggles). They were all debunked (even the emails that said snopes would confirm) So, relax, the anit-christ has not arrived

High 60's and cloudy - was misty and breezy while I stood in line yesterday. Vote time 2 hours 15 minutes. Everyone was in a fine mood, and understood the unprecedented numbers voting. How long did it take y'all to vote?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
500. Skyepony (Mod)
12:50 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
Cloudsat caught another. Not as centered as the one lastnight. 93L is moist..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
499. Orcasystems
12:50 PM GMT on November 05, 2008


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.