Disturbance 93L in southern Caribbean may develop later this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2008

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An area of disturbed weather (93L), associated with a broad area of low pressure that formed at the tail end of a stalled-out cold front, continues in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The disturbance has a strong potential to develop into a tropical storm by late this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 93L, but last night's QuikSCAT pass revealed an elongated circulation center near 11N 79W, about 300 miles north of the Panama Canal. Wind shear is a low to moderate 5-15 knots over the disturbance. Visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity has changed little in coverage or intensity over the past day in association with 93L, and the storm is quite disorganized at present. However, precipitable water imagery shows that the atmosphere has moistened considerably over the south-central Caribbean over the past day, and I expect a marked increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the region by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week. Water temperatures are warm, 29.5°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are favorable conditions for intensification, and both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will become a hurricane. However, the SHIPS intensity model does not develop 93L at all.

Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion of 93L is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean. Most of the models foresee that 93L will move to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border by Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to pull 93L northward towards western Cuba (GFDL and UKMET models), or even northeastwards, towards eastern Cuba and Jamaica (HWRF and ECMWF models). These two models foresee a possible threat to the Bahamas or South Florida late this week or early next week. The GFS model predicts the trough will not be strong enough to turn 93L northwards, and predicts a landfall in Nicaragua late this week. Since this is the outlier, I am discounting this solution, and predict that 93L will remain over water this week, becoming Tropical Storm Paloma Wednesday or Thursday. NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. I give 93L a 40% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras are at risk of heavy rains from 93L beginning Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are likely through Wednesday in these countries. Panama and Costa Rica will probably receive about 2-4 inches of rain through Wednesday. Heavy rains will likely move into the Cayman Islands on Wednesday.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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539. jonelu
4:05 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Haven't been around recently until I heard about 93L. I see politics has leaked in. I voted 2 weeks ago...small line. All I will say is that I am ready for change.
So "Paloma"?? Cuba then SoFlo? Or Cuba then Bahamas then fish?
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
538. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:02 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
537. RobDaHood
4:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
530. Chicklit

LOL My NWS forecast (updated 10:51am btw) still says mostly sunny (whoops!)

WU forecast is a little closer to reality (partly cloudy)

reality is solid overcast 1000-1500ft

(highlands county)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31874
536. chrisrw
3:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
We are BBC watchers in this house as well, but they're owned by Reuters....


Could you explain please??
534. 7544
3:58 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
as obahama gets closer to winning

93l inching further north at this hour more convection building stay tuned
Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6750
533. Gumbogator
3:58 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
1008 mb surface low =93L We may have something here. Florida and Castro need to watch this one!! Remember wrong way Lenny a few yrs ago??
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
532. surfmom
3:57 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
93L looking angry, hope the caymans can handle all the rain
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
531. chrisrw
3:56 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. I get better news about the US from the BBC and Canadian Papers.. no slants


You must be joking. Orca! I can't speak about the Canadian papers but the BBC is so biased these days it's unreal. IMHO, that is.
530. Chicklit
3:54 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Overcast weather here in central florida today as I voted at the country club with no lines!
Wonder what it will be like in the city of Daytona this afternoon when I'm at a community center for an appointment regarding bringing tutoring to inner city children of Daytona through No Child Left Behind. Will be at a polling place and feel part of history, for sure! Don't let the weather keep you from voting. Every vote will count in this important election.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11272
529. surfmom
3:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
#527 LOUD APPLAUSE -- with no hard feelings Orca.

My spouse published a small environmental newspaper for many years ---Two articles got him in a "hot seat" one was Monsanto's GMO seeds.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
528. surfmom
3:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
We are BBC watchers in this house as well, but they're owned by Reuters.... and while more objective then what we have here...... there is a coloring of the lens at times.

It's the financial biggies (the Queen,the Rothchilds,etc., a few quiet, but very influential families that have run the show -- in my humble opinion)& sell the arms. What has changed is the internet -- this is a vehicle, a genie in the bottle -- Here we -The People- have an opportunity to enlighten (Hurricane IKE, voting machine glitches) each other and find community - VOICE -- here we can challenge authority -- thanks why I personally find Dr. Jeff Masters, to be a hero of sorts. He gave us this place, this blog, this real information..... we have a choice
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
527. RobDaHood
3:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
516. Orcasystems

Orca, would have to (respectfully) disagree with that.

All media is opinionated, it is the nature of the beast. People don't usually waste time writing about things they have no interest in or opinion about. Some also slant their stories to please the boss. Then there are the editors...This is also true in scientific journalism...The person writing or conducting the study has a point to make or a theorem to prove and the results are often effected by that.
The gross errors and false assumptions I see in the media on subjects I have 1st hand knowlege of cause me to take everything else they say with a very large grain of salt.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31874
526. hurricanemaniac123
3:43 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
I'm going to say that 93L has a 70-90% chance of becoming a depression today, and 40-60% chance of it becoming Paloma.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
525. WxLogic
3:41 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
WXlogic -- well you were right last night


Hehe... I try not to. 12Z models starting to come out so we shall see how they're initializing the current atmospheric variables to see how they play out. I'm still trying to chew on some additional scenerios.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4961
524. theshepherd
3:39 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
520 Ike
Huh ????
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
523. IKE
3:38 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, out of here for the morning...
Prediction.. Obama 290+


You're probably about right...I'm out too....things to do.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
522. Orcasystems
3:37 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting IKE:


He isn't a regular citizen. It's like saying if George W. Bush weren't born, he wouldn't have been President.


Thanks Ike, I left that one alone
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
521. surfmom
3:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Very cool here in SRQ - the Gulf is tranquil.....presently. Cats are hibernating in their cozy corners, chickens are quiet too...wonder what mood the horses will be in this afternoon, actually I better check my local forecast.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
520. IKE
3:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
508 Orca
That's only because he's an elected US Senator.
If he were a regular citizen. He'd be in the same boat as everyone else and he would not have clearance.
Newspapers are the worst place to get the news.
Watch C-Span and you'll learn how our country works and how wrong the newspapers report on who is responsible.


He isn't a regular citizen. It's like saying if George W. Bush weren't born, he wouldn't have been President.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
519. Orcasystems
3:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
OK, out of here for the morning...
Prediction.. Obama 290+
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
518. PensacolaDoug
3:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Being elected to the Senate entitles one to a high security clearance. My point is that if he was comming up thru the ranks I do not believe he would pass the background checks.

I could be wrong, its happened plenty of times before.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 555
517. RobDaHood
3:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
504. surfmom

Thanks surfmom. Mine is a WinMobile6 PDA phone so I just pull the sd card and transfer to PC (or use bluetooth or USB) images in jpg format so upload from pc to here. Prefer to use reg camera for quality, but it is away on vacation. If your phone has net access and compatible image format, you should be able to upload directly but I've never tried it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31874
516. Orcasystems
3:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Some of us try to read Orca -- but when only four corporation own the "Press" is it very difficult to get all views. When my local NYT owned paper puts an article on the front page - about a guy who designs recipes for Burger King.... I know I have a problem -- especially when that was four days after IKE. My intelligence was insulted.

I canceled the paper... I get more news here,


Actually.. I get better news about the US from the BBC and Canadian Papers.. no slants
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
515. theshepherd
3:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
508 Orca
That's only because he's an elected US Senator.
If he were a regular citizen. He'd be in the same boat as everyone else and he would not have clearance.
Newspapers are the worst place to get the news.
Watch C-Span and you'll learn how our country works and how wrong the newspapers report on who is responsible.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
514. surfmom
3:31 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
WXlogic -- well you were right last night
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
513. surfmom
3:31 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Some of us try to read Orca -- but when only four corporation own the "Press" is it very difficult to get all views. When my local NYT owned paper puts an article on the front page - about a guy who designs recipes for Burger King.... I know I have a problem -- especially when that was four days after IKE. My intelligence was insulted.

I canceled the paper... I get more news here,
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
512. txag91met
3:30 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
RobDaHood

My sweetgum tree in my backyard is turning red here in Houston.

Cheers.

Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 749
511. WxLogic
3:29 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Good morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4961
510. Orcasystems
3:27 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L

Present Satellite Area of Interest ... Carols
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
509. Orcasystems
3:25 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
I am going to have to stop chatting soon.. hate to get banned before the day starts :)
People really should read newspapers and reports.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
508. Orcasystems
3:22 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
503PD
I assume your aware he already has the second highest security clearance you can have in the US right?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
507. theshepherd
3:22 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
504 mom
Dark triggers depression in most.
Turn on the lights and wear something white for reflectivety.
And smile. Smiles trigger happy chemicals.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
506. jambev
3:21 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
The shear over 93L is still preventing the convection from consolidating over the centre and you can see on the water vapor loop the moisture pluming to the N/Ne. Of course time may change this.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
505. theshepherd
3:18 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
503 PD
Well spoken and a wise choice.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
504. surfmom
3:15 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Nice pic Rob, also good to know the phone pics can translate to the blog....hmmmmm I think my young buck "snowed" me on that... heh, heh....

It's so grey out my window, it looks just like the north....gives the sunbunny in me - blues -- always wonder if it's the lack of sun (SAD) or because it triggers memories of a place (the north) I never want to visit again
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
503. PensacolaDoug
3:15 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
I could have voted the democratic ticket this election even tho I'm registered as a republican. Unfortuneately the dems put up the wrong guy in my opinion. I have no love for the policies of the past 8 years but I'm having a hard time trusting Obama. This is a man who wouldn't pass a security clearance in the military or CIA or FBI because of his past associations and we're going to hand him the keys to the kingdom? Whats the rush? We barely know this guy! Give McCain 4 years to make things better. Obama is a young man, lets watch him in the senate for the next for years. We will certainly get to know him better. He has plenty of time to run again.

My 2 cents.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 555
502. cycloone
3:11 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting hurricanealley:
GO McCain
yes! Go McCain !
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
501. 7544
3:10 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
ill have to agree with tampa that 93l could get further north than the models are showing and could get close to so fla but also isnt there a lot of dry air to the north over fla will this stay in place or fade as 93l might head north over cuba
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6750
500. hurricanealley
3:05 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
GO McCain
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
499. surfmom
3:02 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Yea -- it will be an intersting day for sure -- perhaps 93L will help keep us on task.

Not happy to see all the rain Skyepony's post pointed out and...bum, bum bum....I'm not 100% out of the woods yet..... but until we get further along I'm sitting on the fence watching what you "weatherwizards" call out. I tend to take Kman's clinical observations as the current scenerio
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
498. hurricanemaniac123
3:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Is this correct?:

the only reason why 93L isn't a tropical depression is because it doesn't have enough convection around the center.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
497. PensacolaDoug
3:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Are we getting political here this a.m.?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 555
496. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
My opinion...
Paloma will be here on U.S. election day
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
495. surfmom
2:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
OCRA - I will be the bearer of good fruit (thanks to La Nina) via the postal system -- Got the "go ahead from the man".... are you game to experience a new corruption???

Weather is grey and cool outside -- still better then what the spouse has in Germany this week. Still got the collar -- but now boss to tie on the chain LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
494. Orcasystems
2:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Morning SM.. going to be a fun day :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
493. RobDaHood
2:58 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Morning Folks,

Hard to think about tropical weather this morning. 65 degrees outside and cool wind from NW...Starting to feel like November and the maples are starting to agree. Snapped this with my cell this morning for those who don't think we get fall colour in so/cent FL. Younger trees starting to change, older wiser ones not so sure...

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31874
492. surfmom
2:55 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting pottery:
IKE and all.
It is distressing to me, and to many other people, to see Obama referred to as "a black man".
He is actually half African, half Caucasian (white).
That makes him a Hybrid. Like many other people.
In Nature, Hybrids are blends of 2 or more inputs. They are often endowed with very incredible attributes.
Just a thought....


In Hawaii - we call this rainbow children... me I don't care about the outside, what goes on their personal life, whether they're male or female -- it's about the "THINK"
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
491. theshepherd
2:46 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Yep, stupid country.
Turn on the TV.
Go to the movies.
Listen to the radio.
Read a newspaper.
Talk to a foriegner.
I'm thinking 50%, but I'll say 30% of the people have no more idea than the man in the moon, that it's congress that runs the country.
Anything the President wants to do can be over-ridden. He's has hardly any more power than the Queen of England.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
490. pottery
2:45 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
I'm out.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24233
489. TampaSpin
2:40 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Gotta run vote.....vote McCain....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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