Disturbance near Panama a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2008

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An area of disturbed weather, associated with the tail end of a stalled-out cold front, has developed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This disturbance has a strong potential to develop into a tropical storm by late this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed an elongated circulation center near 11N 77W, about 300 miles northeast of the Panama Canal. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the disturbance, and visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and intensity across most of the south-central Caribbean.


Figure 1. Current visible satellite image of the Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week. Most of the models support additional development of this disturbance, though none of them show anything stronger than a weak tropical storm developing this week. Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean. I give a high (>50% chance) that this disturbance will develop into Tropical Storm Paloma this week, and a 40% chance that it will eventually become a hurricane. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras appear most at risk of heavy rains from the disturbance, although Panama and Costa Rica may also begin receiving heavy rains on Monday. The ECMWF model predicts that the disturbance will move over Jamaica on Friday, and it certainly possible that the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti may receive heavy rains from this storm by the end of the week. It is unlikely that the disturbance will affect the U.S. this week.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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343. RobDaHood
2:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Bone,

we were discussing last night how tired I am of these sit and spin, wait and see scenarios...

I'll be in and out today - paperwork, ugh!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
342. Bonedog
2:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Morning Miss Nadia. Looks like the Carolinas will be in the bad weather this time around =(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
341. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
340. Seastep
2:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
New blog
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
339. MissNadia
2:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Morning MissNadia,

Not the best boating weather I take it?

Hi Rob
No not good , I'm done for thr yesr!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
338. Bonedog
2:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Yea Rob might be on the high side for intensity but according to that run its not going to get its act together till the 7th or 8th. Still a long ways off.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
337. RobDaHood
2:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Morning MissNadia,

Not the best boating weather I take it?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
336. MissNadia
2:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2008

South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... low pressure will develop tonight along a stationary front just offshore...then move slowly to the northeast...affecting the area through early Wednesday. Weak high pressure will follow Thursday and Friday.
Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning
Forecast as of 9:17 am EST on November 3, 2008
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Today
E to NE winds around 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft...except 5 ft near shore. Showers likely.
Tonight
E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Near shore...seas 5 to 7 ft. Occasional showers.
Tue
E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft... except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Rain.
Tue Night
NE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed
N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed Night
N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri
W winds around 10 kt...becoming SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
335. RobDaHood
2:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
334. Bonedog

That is not too far from what GFS, CMC, and ECMWF were showing yesterday...little more west crossing Cuba...Thinking the intensity may be a bit on the high side of reality. Would really have to start getting it's act together.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
334. Bonedog
2:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Rob have you seen the GFDL runs of 93L this morning?





Link
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
333. Bonedog
2:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
blog hole?

lost 3 posts now. HMMMMMMMMM
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
332. RobDaHood
2:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
(trouble posting, trying again)

Morning Bonedog,

Yeah, sure you're right. Haven't been watching that area and was surprised to see a "well defined bright red swirly thingy" in that location - LOL - need more caffine!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
331. Bonedog
2:34 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
decent sat rep

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
330. RobDaHood
2:32 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
329. Bonedog
2:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Rob looks like a MESTAT image of a Low impacting Europe. Came from the Med Sea
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
328. RobDaHood
2:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
And what the heck is this? Interesting image.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
327. lawntonlookers
2:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Good mornning everyone. I was watching 93 L yesterday morning and was going to comment on it. Doesn't look much different since then.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
326. RobDaHood
2:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Hello everyone,

Starting to wonder if the real weather story for next day or two isn't S.Carolina/N.Carolina/Virginia. Looks like they could be seeing a lot of rain.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 102 Comments: 33598
324. TampaSpin
1:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning Tim
Is it just me.. or is there another swirl to the east of 93L?


Yep there is another spin just east of there but, it may not be at the lower levels when you look at the vorticity map nothing looks like its at the lower levels....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
323. Orcasystems
1:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good morning everyone.....


Morning Tim
Is it just me.. or is there another swirl to the east of 93L?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
322. TampaSpin
1:52 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Good morning everyone.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
321. Orcasystems
1:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
320. hurricanemaniac123
1:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Where Is everybody?

I am going to say that we may have TD 17 in 24 hours or less.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
319. kmanislander
1:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Good morning everyone

93L is behaving true to form for a late season threat, hardly any motion to speak of and taking a long time to organize.

Conditions aloft are not ideal for development as it is currently situated to the West of an anticyclone that is located near 10N 68W or just to the East of Lake Maracaibo. This anticyclone is imparting some shear to 93L on the W side of the high .

If the high continues to migrate to the W then conditions for shear should improve.

For the time being it is watch and wait. If it becomes a TD I would not expect that to happen before 24 to 36 hrs.

Quikscat this morning missed about 95% of 93L but does show N and NNW winds on the extreme W edge of the area where it is situated.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
318. stormpetrol
12:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Good Morning, 93L is lacking deep convection but is much more defined in terms of circulation today, if it can get some deep convection going I think we may have a TD or TS in a day or 2, JMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
317. Stormchaser2007
12:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
INVEST 93L:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
315. Autistic2
11:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Goog Mornig all

Nice weather here in Elkton. Now to get kids off to school..........

BBl
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
314. isiah23
11:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
T.S Polo is developing an eye
312. WxLogic
11:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
311. Bonedog
11:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Morning
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
310. FLWeatherFreak91
10:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Orange alert
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
309. HurricaneKing
5:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting hurristat:


That would be so ironic I would die of irony. By the way, if Marco did make it to the EPac, it would still be Marco. But this is the first year to have both Marco and Polo.

HurricaneKing, Orca, you still there?


Not if it had just been remains. Then there could of been Marco-polo. Back to work.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
308. hurristat
5:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
The blog is now dead. I'm going. Night
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
307. hurristat
5:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting Hurricaneblast:
Marco, Polo :)

If only marco live longer to be named TS Marco-Polo...


That would be so ironic I would die of irony. By the way, if Marco did make it to the EPac, it would still be Marco. But this is the first year to have both Marco and Polo.

HurricaneKing, Orca, you still there?
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
306. RTLSNK
5:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Nite guys, see you in the AM.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22185
305. Hurricaneblast
4:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Marco, Polo :)

If only marco live longer to be named TS Marco-Polo...
Member Since: February 14, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
304. hurristat
4:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
A lot of people purporting to be very young but have amazing knowlege of weather...as soon as one is gone another pops up...I hate to be cynical about it, but there is more than one who arouse my suspicions at the moment.


Darn you caught me. ; ) JK. I actually am 15, but my friends say I am obsessed with weather, which is probably why I know a lot about that.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
303. HurricaneKing
4:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
On to weather. The disturbance isn't looking very good. Thats probably because of the extratropical storm developing in the Bahamas. I figure if it lives it'll get its shot once the noreaster type thing moves n toward nc. The tropical disturbance will probably move nw then n then ne out to sea.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
302. Orcasystems
4:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:



Actually I try to stay out of the limelight up here. I used to comment years ok then all he!! broke loose aand I hid for a while. After everything got better I came back but mostly talked about the weather and to say hello to people. But the past couple of years I've gotten more involved and the election has got me hooked. It's my first ever chance to vote so I'm one of those crazy yanks though in the south rednecks might might better apply at least for me anyway.


I must admit..I do enjoy to throw in the odd little shot..and then sit back and watch the fun :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
301. HurricaneKing
4:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats not like you :)



Actually I try to stay out of the limelight up here. I used to comment years ok then all he!! broke loose and I hid for a while. After everything got better I came back but mostly talked about the weather and to say hello to people. But the past couple of years I've gotten more involved and the election has got me hooked. It's my first ever chance to vote so I'm one of those crazy yanks though in the south rednecks might better apply at least for me anyway.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
300. SWFLDigTek
4:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
299. Orcasystems
4:29 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:

No comment.


Thats not like you :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
298. Orcasystems
4:28 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting RTLSNK:
291-Orca
Did the same thing in the Everglades, wife wanted to take photos, I go along as bodyguard, can take out a Griz with what I normally carry, heard what I thought was a wild boar grunting, started making grunting noises myself, came around a bend to find a large gator making grunting noises. oops.


Gators.. not my idea of fun..
Mind you.. wild boars are suppose to be pretty mean also.. but to my knowledge they don't try and have you as a snack.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
297. HurricaneKing
4:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok.. agreed..
Umm more Bonkers? Bonkier?

No comment.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
296. pottery
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
I'm gone. Solid gone..
see you tomorow or so.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
295. RTLSNK
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
291-Orca
Did the same thing in the Everglades, wife wanted to take photos, I go along as bodyguard, can take out a Griz with what I normally carry, heard what I thought was a wild boar grunting, started making grunting noises myself, came around a bend to find a large gator making grunting noises. oops.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22185
293. pottery
4:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2008
Manning is our Prime Minister.
megalomaniac.......
But we have no choice right now.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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