Honduras, Yemen struggle to recover from tropical cyclones; tropics remain quiet
Rains have increased in northern Honduras over the past day, with 1-2 inches falling. Additional sporadic heavy rains of 1-2 inches per day are likely over the northern portion of the country through Saturday, as the tail end of a strong cold front interacts with the tropical moisture of the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is not likely in this area due to high wind shear.
The UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF have all been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean Sea 6-7 days from now, off the coast of Nicaragua. I give a 40% chance that we will see a tropical depression form in the Caribbean 5-10 days from now--the upper level environment looks conducive for tropical cyclone development next week. A tropical wave, currently about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is under high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.
Honduras struggles to recover from October floods
The situation in Honduras continues to be bad, due to ten days of heavy rains earlier this month from Tropical Depression 16 and a tropical disturbance. The flooding has left 33 dead, 16 missing, 40,000 homeless, and at least $150 million in damage in this impoverished nation of seven million people. The heavy rains this month have also killed seven in Costa Rica, five in Belize, six in Guatemala, four in Nicaragua, and four in El Salvador, for a total of 75 dead or missing.
Figure 1. Total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 03B. Image credit: NASA TRMM.
Yemen cleans up after Cyclone 03B
In the Middle East, the nation of Yemen continues to recover from Cyclone 03B, which moved ashore October 23 as a tropical depression. Cyclone 03B dumped up to eight inches of rain (Figure 1) on the desert nation, which typically receives only a few inches of rain per year. The deluge from Cyclone 03B created destructive flooding that resulted in at least 180 deaths. The depression had an unusual amount of electrical activity, and nine deaths were due to lightning strikes. The Yemen cyclone is the fourth deadliest tropical cyclone of 2008. The three deadliest were Cyclone Nargis, which killed at least 146,000 people in Myanmar in May; Typhoon Fengshen, which capsized a ferry and killed approximately 1400 people in the Philippines June 19-21; and Hurricane Hanna, which killed 537 people, mostly on Haiti.
October summary of portlight.org Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Beginning balance on October 1, 2008: $11,000
Donations received: $3,800
Total available: $14,900
Expenditures:
Icepilot: $365 (fuel)
Software: $385 (Windows software to better facilitate communication with donors)
Scholarship: $950 to a wheelchair-bound Galveston college student who lost her job at a hotel in Galveston due to the destruction. The scholarship enabled her to finish the semester, which she otherwise would not have been able to do.
Last week's trip: $,(fuel, insurance, crew meals, and lodging enroute (they stayed with and were fed by EmmyRose while there), pizza and drinks for the Saturday meal on the Bolivar Peninsula. This mission delivered over $200,000 in donated supplies.
Supplies: $2,200 (this includes some last minute materials which had been requested but which we couldn't get donated, as well as all the supplies needed to repatriate BillyBadBird to his home place on the Bolivar Peninsula).
Ramps: $1,750 (building materials for reconstruction of ramps at over a dozen disability service organizations)
Salary for Stormjunkie: $1,800. He has put in four 60 hour weeks on this project, plus made two trips to the area. This project couldn't have been done without his hard work.
Total spent in October: $11,350
Remaining balance: $3,550
Escrow: beginning balance: $8,950
Expenditures: $1,500 Legal fees
Remaining funds: $7,450
Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
Portlight is sponsoring a new nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of their ongoing efforts, specifically to provide Christmas presents (and maybe a big party) for kids and families in devastated Gulf coast areas. Paul Timmons (Presslord) of Portlight has pulled out all the stops in an effort to promote this effort, to the point of posing in woman's clothing. I am supposed to threaten to leave up this truly frightening photo until y'all cough up enough donations to give the people of the hurricane zone a proper Christmas.
Alternatively, committing to a monthly donation--no matter how large or small--will help them build a dependable revenue source, enabling continued operations in the most efficient and effective manner possible.Â
I'll have an update Friday (or Thursday, if there's a major development to report). Happy Halloween!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I run a relaxed small resort, Steppingstones (2 cabanas)mainly for fishing in a very remote spot. It's a retirement business, most of my time I spend working managing the local school as a volunteer. Husband Chris is working on a big erosion project here, trying to get the government to act on erosion of the nearby village caused by water extraction - 20 homes under immediate threat from the sea. Signatures on our petition always welcome! Link
Morning Spicy and Happy All Hallows Eve to you too
The heavy rain here woke me at 6, to close some windows...
Yeah, the 06ZGFS shifted again. Have to see if the information loaded 12Z does the same.
84hr 00ZCMC
120hr 00ZUKMET
UKMET is a little slower with the evolution, mainly because it is showing a rather significant system taking shape in the Western Caribbean. CMC is much faster with the Bahama's low.
Yea hoping to get a few kids at the door tonight we'll see. Some years more than others =)
UGH I am so mad right now.
BRB need a smoke now.
Looks like a day spent in the shed making a new one this weekend.
I will add a little surprise to this one though hehehehehe
Lots of rain in T&C overnight and this am...
More than I would have guessed by looking at Satellite photo.
Bar. high w/ ENE wind 8-10 mph
Wanted to repost my warning from last night...keep it going throughout day, please.
Gotta get ready to run to Orlando and Trick o' Treat with the grand youngins'.
****Candy warning****
Canadian Food Insp Agency has recalled Sherwood brand "Pirates Gold Chocolate Coins" as they contain Melamine....Do not eat !!!!
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Peace and love
Have a safe "good ol'fashion Halloween"
Years ago, a friend of mine had the same trouble, teenagers with baseball bats were doing it, they would do a drive by with one of them hanging out the rear window with the bat. After losing two mailboxes, the guys at his shop at Eglin AFB made him an 18guage steel box welded to a 3 in gal pipe, and came out after dark and concreted it in the ground. Two nights later they heard wood splintering and screaming, the cops found the kid at the emergency room with bones sticking out of his wrists! Never happened again.
Still scarey in Honduras as rain won't stop. 24hr acumulations.
I know I've been MIA for near a month now. Took some time to play in the forest which always brings on some soul searching. Realized how spoiled I've become on the satalite views but within a week I could just watch it real time outside & get an overall sense of the big picture for the east without the need of satalite verification..like I used too.
cchs~ enjoy your time away:)
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