A quiet weekend in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:23 PM GMT on October 25, 2008

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet today. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. The next area to watch is the Western and Southern Caribbean beginning on Wednesday, when a cold front will stall out over the area and potentially act as a nucleus around which a tropical storm could form. This should give time for flooding to subside in Honduras, where 29 are dead and 14 missing due to recent rains.

Saturday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
Today, the Portlight truck will be on the hard-hit Bolivar Peninsula. You can follow the mission's progress through a newly set-up web site:

http://www.stormjunkie.com/portlight.php

Today's schedule:

Arrive to pick pizza up around 11:15.
11:30-11:45: begin trip out to Bolivar.
12:30-2:00: Hand out pizza.
1:30-2:00: Tour of Bolivar (will head down to billybadbird's old house).

If the tropics remain quiet on Sunday, my next update will be on Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Bolivar Peninsula- Ike Relief (StormJunkie)
Unloading supplies at the Crystal Beach distribution center. Chambers County has adopted Bolivar and is handling relief their since Galveston County is not stepping up to the plate. Many thanks to Sharon Martin of Chambers County for pushing this issue!
Bolivar Peninsula- Ike Relief
Bolivar Peninsula- Ike Relief (StormJunkie)
Crystal Beach...Ike...These folks need help. Portlight.org
Bolivar Peninsula- Ike Relief

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458. NEwxguy
3:24 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
GM, all,when you look at the patterns over the conus,and a cold nor'easter headed toward the northeast,and cold air plunging all the way to the south,kind of gives you the feeling the tropics are done.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
457. RobDaHood
3:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
456. Orcasystems
3:06 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
451 Orca
Check it out. For sure, the Northwest Passage will be closed again for the second year in a row. In my opinion, nothing to do with the global warming trend as a whole. Man made or natural, let's not enter "that" debate. ;>) Our little space ship we call Earth has more than one fish to fry.


I will never get into the GW debate.. when it starts on here I just shake my head and leave.

All I know is I want to fly some place warm.. and unless the economy picks up pretty quick..I may have to skip that this year...that will not make me happy at all.

Not to mention.. SWMBO'ed is not a nice person if she does not get her vacation.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
455. theshepherd
2:58 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
451 Orca
Check it out. For sure, the Northwest Passage will be closed again for the second year in a row. In my opinion, nothing to do with the global warming trend as a whole. Man made or natural, let's not enter "that" debate. ;>) Our little space ship we call Earth has more than one fish to fry.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10093
454. Orcasystems
2:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Orca

Nice pics of the pond. Oh, & BTW I so want one of those bird sculptures in the corner.


They are nice.. and made locally here on the island. They also keep the Blue Heron happy.. he seems to be in love with it.. vice scaring him away.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
453. RobDaHood
2:50 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Orca

Nice pics of the pond. Oh, & BTW I so want one of those bird sculptures in the corner.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
452. Orcasystems
2:47 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Cape Verde / Mid Atlantic
The CMC run has this one developing & tracking west.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
451. Orcasystems
2:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
449 Orca
I still hold that unless sunspot activety picks up, You're in for more than your fair share on nippy mornings. lol


I have not checked.. but I would assume from the temps this year.. it may be a bit colder then normal.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
450. theshepherd
2:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
449 Orca
I still hold that unless sunspot activety picks up, You're in for more than your fair share on nippy mornings. lol
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10093
449. Orcasystems
2:37 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning everyone... very nippy morning up here :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
448. Drakoen
2:36 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THAT 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP TO AROUND 1340M ACROSS GLADES
AND HENDRY COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 1355M ALONG THE
SE COAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND WINDS DECOUPLING TO SOME
EXTENT OVER THE INTERIOR...TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME RECORD
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER PARTS OF GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES...INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NAPLES AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE CONCERNING THE
RECORDS. IF WINDS STAY UP AROUND 5MPH THEN WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED
HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN GET
AS COLD AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT NIGHT...GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY IN
THE SEASON FOR AN OUTBREAK OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND THE GROUND IS STILL
PRETTY WARM.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
446. Drakoen
2:27 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Nice morning with lows in the 60s. Looking forward to the real cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
445. theshepherd
2:24 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:


Makes you wonder if us in the affected areas wouldn't just be better off in the long run by using only pressure treated wood. Sure it will be more expensive, but over time I bet it would pay for itself if you were going to live in a house you build for 20 years or more.
Nix on going total pressure treated. Don't even think about it. That has been done before and people have died or suffered serious health issues by the same chemical fumes that prevent rot. DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BUILD YOUR HOUSE WITH PRESSURE TREATED WOOD AS THE PRIMARY MATERIAL. Frequent inspection and maintenance will always be the best policy. LOL
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10093
444. 69Viking
2:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Wow, quiet tropics and sloooow blog! Good morning everyone! Great weather here in NW Florida, can't remember the last time frost threatened in October!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3059
443. myway
1:24 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting kellnerp:
First dusting of snow in northern Indiana around 3am. By morning it was raining and the sump pump was busy.






Where in Northern Indiana? I am originaly from Starke county, Knox to be exact. Mom still lives on Bass Lake.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
442. RobDaHood
1:22 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Morning Rob: I imagine you are loving this weather too! Yuck - must get back to work.


Yes I am. Will be a bit nippy weds am but I'll be driving all morning so it won't bother me.

Today's an easy day so far which suits me just fine too. Think I'll take the dog out for a few minutes...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
441. conchygirl
1:18 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Morning Conchy,

Morning Rob: I imagine you are loving this weather too! Yuck - must get back to work.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
440. JRRP
12:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
see you later
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5988
439. RobDaHood
12:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning Conchy,

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
438. conchygirl
12:37 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning everyone:
Absolutely gorgeous wintery weather this morning in Melbourne. My favorite time of the year. Off Sunday on a cruise to the Western Caribbean and think everything should be pretty good there too! Belize might be a big soggy though~
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
437. RobDaHood
12:35 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Crank for 60 seconds, wiggle something, repeat, repeat, repeat, change battery, repeat, repeat, why is the starter smoking, crank some more, call mechanic.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
436. RobDaHood
12:31 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
435. Neverseensnow

Already starting. Noticed several at the lake trying to get their boats started for the first time this season.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
435. Neverseensnow
12:26 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
421. IKE

Hehe...Had to listen to you brag for two weeks!
My turn!

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. North northwest wind between 6 and 11 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northwest wind between 7 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Wind chill values as low as 39 early. North northwest wind between 11 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North northwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72. North northwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North wind around 6 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 78. North northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph.

(LOL)




Cue the Snowbirds
434. RobDaHood
12:13 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
433. kellnerp

Been seeing a lot of snow/rain/snow forecast for the midwest.

I'm not real experienced with winter weather, but sounds like a recipe for bad driving conditions to me. Be careful
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
433. kellnerp
12:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
First dusting of snow in northern Indiana around 3am. By morning it was raining and the sump pump was busy.



Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
431. RobDaHood
12:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2008
430. vortfix

Thanks,

Noticed a lot of dry air heading that way, but feeling bad for them. They've just been stuck in the loop for 2-3 weeks now.

Haven't heard from the bloggers there in a couple days. stormpetrol has inlaws in Belize.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
429. RobDaHood
11:55 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning Bean

Ditto that, but then I'd just end up working weekends.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
427. RobDaHood
11:51 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
So do you guys think that this will be enough of a push to break the pattern for Belize and Guatemala and give them a few days to dry out.

Looks much improved, but still some minor convection at the tail of the current front just offshore Belize
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
424. RobDaHood
11:39 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
421. IKE

Hehe...Had to listen to you brag for two weeks!
My turn!

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. North northwest wind between 6 and 11 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northwest wind between 7 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Wind chill values as low as 39 early. North northwest wind between 11 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North northwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72. North northwest wind around 6 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North wind around 6 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 78. North northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph.

(LOL)

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
423. IKE
11:39 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
New Orleans Lakefront, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 44 min 49 sec ago
Clear
65 °F
Clear
Humidity: 52%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 30 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 43 mph

Pressure: 30.27 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
421. IKE
11:35 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
AC? What about the heat?

My forecast for tonight....Tonight
Clear and cold. Lows 32 to 37. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.


The arctic front just moved through here...winds are increasing in the Florida panhandle...winter weather ahead.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
420. RobDaHood
11:32 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
419. WxLogic

Yeah, I'll give the models a day or two to chew on that.

Ditto the A/C thing. Gonna enjoy it while it last.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
419. WxLogic
11:27 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Well... almost time to head out to work... ttl.

But I will say this... forecast models (GFS, NGP, and CMC) are indicating for now some disturbances developing towards the end of this week and beginning of next week in the EATL and WCARIB. Coinciding with the arrival of a weak to moderate MJO which seems that it could last until the end of the Hurr. season.

Well shall see what pops up next Sunday, but for the mean time... quite a bit of savings on energy bill as I have no longer have to have this AC be turned on at all and should be a pretty tranquil week for the CONUS and Carib.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
418. WxLogic
11:22 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
415. KBH... Morning

417. Rob... Morning. Hehe... quite true.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
417. RobDaHood
11:18 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning, All

realized at about 5pm yesterday that I hadn't looked at a sat loop all day. Kinda nice for a change.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32313
416. WxLogic
11:06 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Morning folks...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
415. KBH
11:05 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
morning all, seems someone the rain clouds disappeared from over the Carib. looks like only blue skies today and weather for the beach!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
414. dewfree
9:27 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
It's also a pattern that should effectively end the tropical season, at least as far as most U.S. interests are concerned. That's not to say there can't be another storm or two over the last weeks of the season, but for them to form is difficult in November and, unless if forms over the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf, there's little opportunity for anything born in the tropics to get to the U.S. mainland.

Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
412. Orcasystems
4:59 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Cape Verde
The CMC run has this one tracking west.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
411. BahaHurican
4:39 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Here's the Nassau forecast for the next 3 days. That second front looks dangerous.

Monday
Chance of Rain. Overcast. High: 84° F. / 29° C. Wind North 15 mph. / 25 km/h. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 73° F. / 23° C. Wind NNW 15 mph. / 25 km/h.
Tuesday
Chance of Rain. Scattered Clouds. High: 78° F. / 26° C. Wind North 22 mph. / 36 km/h. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Tuesday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 68° F. / 20° C. Wind North 24 mph. / 39 km/h.
Wednesday
Partly Cloudy. High: 78° F. / 26° C. Wind NNE 17 mph. / 28 km/h.
Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: 68° F. / 20° C. Wind NE 15 mph. / 25 km/h.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22323
410. StormJunkie
4:37 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Yep atmo, and I have to be honest, I am not a fan of the La roads! Especially in U-haul
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
409. Drakoen
3:46 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Upper 40s forecasted for me Tuesday night. Should be a nice change. The air feels different after the first front had passes by.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
408. atmoaggie
3:44 AM GMT on October 27, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I can't see the full version either, but it woks if you copy the image URL (of the small avatar picture) and remove the bolded part:

http://icons-pe.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/h/HadesGodWyvern/23-thumb.jpg

Thus,

http://icons-pe.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/h/HadesGodWyvern/23.jpg

Not sure why that happens, think it is a glitch in WU.


What is that? Family members? Saints fans from a few years ago?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.