Tropical Atlantic quiets down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:06 PM GMT on October 24, 2008

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The tropical Atlantic is relatively quiet today, though an area of disturbed weather has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean. This disturbance will move westward over Nicaragua and Costa Rica today, bringing heavy rains of 2-4 inches. The heavy rains that have plagued Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize in recent days appear likely to take a break today, although a low pressure area still lingers over the Western Caribbean. The death toll now stands at 44 from two weeks of heavy rains triggered by last week's Tropical Depression Sixteen and this week's tropical disturbance 91L. Hardest hit is Honduras, where 23 are dead and some 193,000 persons have been affected. Approximately 23,000 persons were evacuated of which 19,800 are in shelters. More than 340 houses were destroyed and 4,300 were damaged, with 157 roads damaged or destroyed. The past week's flooding has also killed four in Guatemala, seven in Costa Rica, four in Nicaragua, two in Belize, and four in El Salvador.


Figure 1. Total rainfall amounts over Guatemala have been as high as 16 inches over the northern portion of the country the past week. Image credit: Norman E. Avila, climaya.com.

The forecast
Persistent low pressure and sporadic heavy rains will continue over the Western Caribbean for the next ten days. A strong cold front is expected to push southward into the area next Tuesday, and the tail end of this cold front could serve as the nucleus for a new tropical disturbance that will generate another round of very heavy rains for Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize late next week. Wind shear is expected to be in the low to medium range over the Western Caribbean next week (Figure 2), so we will need to be concerned with a possible tropical storm forming by the middle of next week along the old front. High wind shear is expected north of the Caribbean during the coming two weeks, and it is unlikely that any tropical storms will be able to affect the U.S. during the coming two weeks--with the possible exception of South Florida. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Forecast wind shear for Monday night Ocober 27, 2008, at 8 pm EDT, as generated by the GFS model with its 00Z run on Friday October 24, 2008. The shear is shown in meters per second (multiply by two to make a rough conversion to knots). Low wind shear (darker red colors) are expected over the Western Caribbean next week, which may allow tropical storm development. Very high wind shear associated with a southern dip in the jet stream will protect the U.S. against any tropical storms that might develop.

Friday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods dropped much of those supplies off yesterday in Bridge City, Texas. Today, the Portlight truck will head to the Chambers County, Texas distribution center between 9:30 and 11:00 am, and drop off the rest of the supplies. These goods will go to residents on the hard-hit Bolivar Peninsula. You can follow the mission's progress through a newly set-up web site:

http://www.stormjunkie.com/portlight.php

On Saturday, from noon to 3 pm CDT, Portlight will be providing a free meal for 400-500 Bolivar Peninsula residents.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Portlight Ike Relief 10-23-08 (StormJunkie)
Unloading supplies in Bridge City at the distribution center run by the Churches of Christ and Laura Cremans; seen here.
Portlight Ike Relief 10-23-08

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306. RobDaHood
4:41 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
HI ORCA


Goin back outside for a while. Will check in later.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
305. RobDaHood
4:38 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Wow that's a lot of pizza!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
304. Orcasystems
4:33 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:


Yes, there are a several good "off the beaten path" places to eat. Haven't been to that one yet, but have heard good things. And yes lots of big oaks in the county. Not a bad place to live, kinda peaceful and within a couple hours of Tampa, Orlando, WPalm, Sarasota, and central location works out well for me.

Not so much for nitelife, but I have friends up and down both coast if the mood strikes.

Sorry Hurristat, wrong. That was your one guess for the day!


Where is the Bat cave? Its right here.
Bat Cave, North Carolina
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
303. RobDaHood
4:30 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting MisterJohnny:
RobDaHood

Lake Placid is pretty nice. My parents have friends there on Lake June. There is a pretty good restaurant in Sebring on Lake Jackson, I think it is called the Sunset Grill. They say that they have the largest Oak Tree in Florida next to the restaurant


Yes, there are a several good "off the beaten path" places to eat. Haven't been to that one yet, but have heard good things. And yes lots of big oaks in the county. Not a bad place to live, kinda peaceful and within a couple hours of Tampa, Orlando, WPalm, Sarasota, and central location works out well for me.

Not so much for nitelife, but I have friends up and down both coast if the mood strikes.

Sorry Hurristat, wrong. That was your one guess for the day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
302. IKE
4:28 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting melly:
IKE.....Lookin' out my back door

"CCR"


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
301. Orcasystems
4:24 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

The only Blob I could find.


Click on image to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
300. Cotillion
4:22 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Also, as to the effects on temperatures in the U.K., here is a simulation of what would happen if the THC collapsed completely - not very pleasant (compared to pre-industrial temperatures, not current temperatures which are about 1*C warmer):



(Not quite the "Day after Tomorrow" scenario either though, the U.S. is relatively unaffected, this simulation is for 2050, assuming it collapsed right now, although we don't have to worry about that anytime soon; would also cause major shifts in weather patterns, storms, etc)


That's distinctly colder. Though not entirely unexpected, we're really quite warm considering our latitude. Don't anticipate living in England forever, so perhaps I'll have to go before 2050. ;)

Thanks for the last 2 posts, interesting as always STL.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
299. Orcasystems
4:22 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Good morning all :)
I could find only one decent Blob in the whole Atlantic, that the CV one.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
298. hurristat
4:21 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
HeHe...RobDaHood will never reveal the exact location of the batcave!


I'm gonna take a guess and say Lake Trafford, or Lake Istokpoga.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
297. MisterJohnny
4:21 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
RobDaHood

Lake Placid is pretty nice. My parents have friends there on Lake June. There is a pretty good restaurant in Sebring on Lake Jackson, I think it is called the Sunset Grill. They say that they have the largest Oak Tree in Florida next to the restaurant
294. RobDaHood
4:09 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
HeHe...RobDaHood will never reveal the exact location of the batcave!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
293. hurristat
4:04 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:


Lot's of interesting history - Cornwall.

Melly, Highlands wasn't so bad this summer. Last couple years were a lot hotter. 'Cept for a few rainy days it's been really nice the past 3 weeks. Oh, and right now, I'm probably cooler than you.

Live on a good sized lake though on east side so really moderates temps.


Which lake?
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
292. hurristat
4:04 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)



But for a completely different reason. It doesn't seem too hot there.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
291. RobDaHood
4:01 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)



Lot's of interesting history - Cornwall.

Melly, Highlands wasn't so bad this summer. Last couple years were a lot hotter. 'Cept for a few rainy days it's been really nice the past 3 weeks. Oh, and right now, I'm probably cooler than you.

Live on a good sized lake though on east side so really moderates temps.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
290. hurristat
4:01 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:
Yes, quite the change in temperatures. 'course where I am, there is apparently a 1.5C positive difference. Trust me, it makes no difference. It goes from bloody cold to... still bloody cold. Still, for the hardy of us, take a lot more than chilly waters to stop the surfers.

I guess from 2015 onwards, we'll have to monitor it to see when it does change back. I guess measuring the AMO and predicting when it'll swap back is pretty difficult, as they don't understand the oscillation well enough yet, I suppose.

Any way to disentangle AMO's influence on SSTs and that of GW?


That would give the cycle about 20 years of hyperactivity... after about 20 years of hypoactivity... after about 20 years of hyperactivity... seems pretty consistent, but reliable records don't last past that... not enough to base anything off of.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
289. Cotillion
3:50 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting melly:
It is so hot and melts tin, and when it melted it formed a new city. Hey, Let's call it Tin City


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
288. melly
3:47 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
It is so hot and melts tin, and when it melted it formed a new city. Hey, Let's call it Tin City
287. Cotillion
3:42 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting melly:
Cotillion, All of my family lives in Collier county, I am in Palm Beach county. Guess what I mean to say is, It is so freekin' hot in Naples compared to Palm Beach county. My parents lived in Highlands county, Lake Placid, it was freekin' hot there also. I'll take the east coast any time


So hot it melts tin!?

Right, gotcha. ;)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
286. melly
3:40 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Cotillion, All of my family lives in Collier county, I am in Palm Beach county. Guess what I mean to say is, It is so freekin' hot in Naples compared to Palm Beach county. My parents lived in Highlands county, Lake Placid, it was freekin' hot there also. I'll take the east coast any time
284. Cotillion
3:34 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Yes, quite the change in temperatures. 'course where I am, there is apparently a 1.5C positive difference. Trust me, it makes no difference. It goes from bloody cold to... still bloody cold. Still, for the hardy of us, take a lot more than chilly waters to stop the surfers.

I guess from 2015 onwards, we'll have to monitor it to see when it does change back. I guess measuring the AMO and predicting when it'll swap back is pretty difficult, as they don't understand the oscillation well enough yet, I suppose.

Any way to disentangle AMO's influence on SSTs and that of GW?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
282. Cotillion
3:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting melly:
Cotillion..Hot off the press of Tin City I see


Yeah, sure. (Why the Tin City, anyway? Has it got anything to do with tin, lol?) Still, same applies, perhaps for another couple of decades yet.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
281. melly
3:22 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Cotillion..Hot off the press of Tin City I see
280. Cotillion
3:18 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting 15hurricanes:
Newspaper in Naples, Florida on Tuesday, May 17, 2005:

The Atlantic has seen above-average hurricane activity almost every season since 1995, when a change in deep ocean currents began bringing warmer surface temperatures to the basin.


They're referring to this.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
278. Cotillion
3:10 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Give the Atlantic a week or two.

Then we might see a storm, a second if we're unlucky.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
277. melly
3:09 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
IKE.....Lookin' out my back door

"CCR"
275. IKE
3:03 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Ain't love great!

Weather out my back door>>>>

61.2 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.05 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
274. sebastianflorida
3:03 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
WHY?
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 719
273. melly
3:02 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Taz..Are you going to come on here again and say (one month ago ) that the season is over.? Sorry, just kidding you, I listened to your posts, but I think you jumped the gun this year, but i still love you.
272. GBlet
3:01 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Good morning! Well,our little city has swelled to twice its normal size with hunters. Seems crazy to think it's hunting season again. I love to hear the ducks and geese. Hate to hear the gunshots though, reminds me of city life. YUCK!
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
271. sebastianflorida
3:00 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Atlantic just about shut down, Just like in Hells Kitchen, when Ramsey yells "SHUT IT DOWN"
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 719
270. Tazmanian
2:58 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
good AM STL loook at this




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS IN SUGGESTING THAT
ENERGY FROM WESTERN PACIFIC CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE JETSTREAM
AND DEVELOP AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AMSU SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A ROBUST
2 INCH P.W. PLUME
LIFTING NORTH JUST EAST OF JAPAN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A 979MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 06Z GFS JUST CAME IN VERY SIMILAR...INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THIS...SO WE CURRENTLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD BEGIN FAIRLY
HIGH...WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET INITIALLY. ON FRIDAY...A 145KT JET
BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND DYNAMICS INTO THE
TROF...INDUCING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...HALLOWEEN NIGHT COULD BE SHOWERY AND WINDY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES HERE AS
THE 06Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ONTO THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WE WILL CERTAINLY HOPE FOR SLOWER TIMING. BUT THE GFS
HAS A 60KT 850-700MB LOW LEVEL JET TAKING AIM AT CENTRAL CALIFORNIABY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS PLAYS OUT...SATURDAY MAY BE A VERY WET AND
WINDY DAY WITH A TRUE SOAKING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
.
ALSO...SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY DROP BELOW ALL MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND CREATE OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WOULD ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE MUD SLIDE AND
DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES NEAR AREA BURN SCARS FROM SUMMER FIRES. WET
WEATHER MAY VERY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE TROF MORE
CONSOLIDATED.

AT THIS TIME WE WILL MENTION THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION IN
THE HWO AND AFD. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING AN SPS
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. SG
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
269. sebastianflorida
2:57 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting sebastianflorida:
I think something will form within next 3 days far east Atlantic; I know that would be unusual, but things are comming together. Also it will stay south, far south.
only other possibilities are west of Bermuda, that would shoot up north east, and between Florida and Yucatan that would run into SW Florida as TS, but unlikely to form.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 719
267. rainraingoaway
2:56 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.


Absolutely!!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
266. RobDaHood
2:55 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
261. BahaHurican

sounds like a plan! In fact, that's what I have been doing for the last couple hours and will probably spend most of the day out there.

263. melly

Hey melly, thanks for the warning..lol
Might post about my experiences later today, for now just dropping in to say hi! then back outside.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
265. melly
2:54 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Also, (let me know if I talk too much, I have been told I do) I was in North Pole , Alaska when my ex was stationed as a weather observer at Eielson AFB for 2 years. Now that was experience. Talk about cold..... It was unexplaineable. (Is that a word ) ¿
264. sebastianflorida
2:54 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.
I think something will form within next 3 days far east Atlantic; I know that would be unusual, but things are comming together. Also it will stay south, far south.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 719
263. melly
2:49 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
I see everyone is posting of the storms they have been in:

I was in the Xenia, Ohio tornado of April 3rd, 1974. when I was a very young girl.
Went through Francis and Jeanne in 2004.
Went through Wilma in 2005 (yesterday reunion)
And my Spam was spared but my beer was warm.

Moral of the story, "Dont Follw Me"
262. hurricane23
2:36 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Morning...

Just found out Richard Knabb is relocating wayyy out there in Honolulu as director of operations.Wish him the best of luck on his new promotion.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
261. BahaHurican
2:35 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Morning everybody. It's great to see the sun for the first time since Wednesday morning . . . lol.

I think I'll run away and enjoy the day before the rain comes back . . . as it unfortunately seems it will . . .

At least there's no hurricane on the horizon this morning.

I think I'll go get a cup of coffee and sit on the front porch to drink it. . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
260. GatorWX
2:35 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Torrential rain last night here in Englewood, FL (25 miles S of Sarasota). Severe thunderstorm brought 25mph gusts and nearly 3 in of rain in less than an hour. So far my rain guage has about 4 1/4 in for two days. Looks like Yucatan low will add a bit more. Swell is beginning to fill in finally. May be ridable later today. Surfmom ought to be happy! I am, haven't seen any waves in a little while now.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
259. RobDaHood
2:33 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Morning folks!

Winter is on the way, at least the birds seem to think so. Population has quadrupled virtually overnight. Might get a little storm here in a bit, but right now the sun is shining and my back yard sounds like a circus.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33557
258. usa777
1:52 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Isabel was deninetly the worst storm I've ever been in, it put a 2.5 foot wide tree on our house. We visited D.C about a month after the storm there were entire logs strewn across the pathway by the Potomic River in some areas the pathway was gone 2nd place actually goes to Hanna the biggest rain maker I can remember. We were in a little blob in VA that got 7 inches. Our pool overflowed for the 2nd time ever and a dry pond in front of my house had the water level rise at least 5 feet

I live near DC so I really don't get much exciting destruction and heavy rains are rare
where I live the storms split and surround us but don't hit us.


Hurricane Katrina here. I lived in Bay St Louis Miss. Lost everything I owned at the time. I was born and raised in Utah and had absolutely no clue what this storm was all about. I had absolutely no doubt I was going to die. By far the most scared I have ever been in my life. I'm sure many people here that have experienced a bad hurricane will agree. It's one thing to have a brief scary moment, but go through 6 hrs of it non-stop one time. 3 hrs of it in a tree in a neighborhood that looked like a big hand had come through and swatted everything away. Not something I plan on happening to me ever again.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
257. atmoaggie
1:47 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.


I bet Pat does the chicory in his coffee thing. Agreed, though.

Love the fall weather. I will take mid 40s in SE LA over the hothouse conditions every time you ask. I can put on enough clothes to warm up.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
256. Sfloridacat5
1:46 PM GMT on October 25, 2008
I guess being close to the water and cloudy conditions are keeping Barrow a little warmer.

Fairbanks in currently sitting a -3 degrees

Division of Forestry, Fairbanks, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 3 min 37 sec ago
-3.1 °F / -19.5 °C
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: -3 °F / -20 °C
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -7 °F / -22 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.15 in / 1020.9 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 8.0 miles / 12.9 kilometers
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 300 ft / 91 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 434 ft / 132 m

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9304

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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