Flooding eases in hard-hit Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2008

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The rains over northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize due to Western Caribbean tropical disturbance 91L have diminished over the past day, with only an additional 1-3 inches of rain falling over the hardest hit areas. River levels have peaked and are now on the decline over most of the affected region (Figure 1). A nationwide state of emergency continues in Honduras, though, where at least thirteen people died in the flooding. In Belize, damage is already estimated in the ten of millions, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. In northern Guatemala, at least 70 towns have been cut off by flood waters and a state of emergency has been declared. Satellite estimates suggest that up to a foot of rain has fallen over the region in the past week.


Figure 1. Water level in the Rio Humuya river in northern Honduras this week. The water level rose from three feet to 21 feet as a result of heavy rains from 91L. Image credit: NOAA.

Visible satellite loops show that the intensity and areal coverage of 91L's heavy thunderstorms have diminished significantly over the past day, and the storm is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and expected to increase over 91L as the storm drifts northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula today. By Friday, the moisture from 91L should get sucked into an extratropical storm expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida Panhandle's coast. This storm will hit the Panhandle Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing sustained winds of 25-30 mph to the coastal waters, and 1-2 inches of rain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in association with a tropical wave has developed in the south central Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the northeast coast of Nicaragua. This region is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear. Some slow development is likely before the disturbance comes ashore over northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Thursday morning. Heavy rains of 3-6" can be expected in those regions on Thursday, but the disturbance does not have time to develop into a tropical depression. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Wednesday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck has left today from Charleston, South Carolina, loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods for the good citizens of Bridge City, the Bolivar Peninsula, and Houston. I checked out the truck's progress this morning using the streaming video available at http://portlight.camstreams.com/. There's also a chat feature there one can use. The total cost to portlight for this week's charity effort will be approximately $5000-$7000, which will cover truck rental, fuel, lodging, and food. An additional $1750 will be spent for building materials for rebuilding over a dozen ramps for disabilities service organizations, so that clients have access to services. Visit the portlight.org website to engage in the or Stormjunkie's blog for more updates on the effort. It's great to see the wunderground community coming together for this effort!

A rough video schedule:

Wednesday,  October 22
10:30A EDT, arrive FODAC, load DME and other stuff (2 hours), then drive to Biloxi, MS ( 7 hours). Upon arrival there, more supplies will be loaded.

Thursday October 23
Noon to 5P CDT, unloading at Bridge City and Chambers County

Friday October 24
Repatriating WU blogger BillyBadBird to Bolivar Peninsula to begin rebuilding his life there

Saturday  October 25
Noon - 3P CDT, free dinner for 400-500 Bolivar Peninsula residents


I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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466. stillwaiting
12:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
I posted last night that the location where the low was forming over the yucatan,however I expect more of a NE path vs the due north path the nws is forcasting,SWFL get ready for a windy rainy 36 Hrs ahead!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
465. KBH
2:12 AM GMT on October 23, 2008
the odds of it missing us are slim, suppose it is better than being in the path of a storm or hurricane
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
464. IKE
2:17 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
462. Orcasystems
1:38 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting GBlet:
Quit it with the big spinning thing! The snow line looks to be about 15 miles to the west of us now.

Bet you never thought you would see your nick on a tropical website picture :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
461. Patrap
1:31 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Storm study to model warming effects Link

by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday October 08, 2008, 8:06 AM

A new study announced today will attempt to predict whether the number and intensity of future hurricanes will increase in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of global warming.

The study will use a combination of complex computer models to replicate past weather patterns in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf, and use the results, along with estimates of future production of man-made greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane to predict Gulf hurricane activity.

The modeling will focus on three 10-year periods -- 1995-2005, 2020-30, and 2045-55 -- said lead scientist Greg Holland, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado Springs, Colo.

"It's the next stepping stone forward in how hurricanes are going to be impacted by climate change and how hurricanes can impact climate change," Holland said.

He expects the first results to be available as soon as January, with a detailed analysis completed by mid-2009.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
460. HurricaneKing
1:31 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
A low is inbetted in that convection. Be careful! look at it, its in the northwest caribbean


It looks like a mid level feature. It doesn't really matter since it's getting pulled into the low forming in the central gulf.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
458. HurricaneKing
1:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
I dont know. The southeast us coast could have a subtropical storm before the year is out. With the amount of nor easters we've already had that cut off and stalled offshore I wouldn't be suprised to see a subtropical storm that actually gets a name form. So I honestly dont think the season can be called completely over for the us.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
456. GBlet
1:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quit it with the big spinning thing! The snow line looks to be about 15 miles to the west of us now.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
455. TheTracker08
1:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
embetted, lol oops
454. TheTracker08
1:19 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
A low is inbetted in that convection. Be careful! look at it, its in the northwest caribbean
453. Patrap
1:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Hurricane Season Synopsis 2008 Link
Map Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
452. Orcasystems
1:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.




Click to emlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
451. stillwaiting
1:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
stillwaiting....you completely missed my point Monday....and you still do not understand what I was saying.

There is no further need to discuss.




you were wrong!!!,sorry you just post things from the nws,I was just giving my opinion and admit I was wrong there w/be no tropical low,but I was correct about heavy rain and gusty winds.....some people are just to "self-rightous"..I'll be the first to admit when I was incorrect...you just keep posting the facts my friend and I'll keep giving my personal opinions on the weather,just do me a favor and don't comment on my comments IF your not going to be man enough to admit when you are wrong "my friend"....


IKE: looks like you and adrian were right,close'r down...the TC season looks to be closed for the ConUS,good call!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
450. Orcasystems
1:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Yep, we are done with the season. Lovin' this weather!


I hope you don't have to regret that remark.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
449. NEwxguy
1:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
The atmosphere has really taken on the look of late fall,early winter pattern,it looks near impossible for any tropical system to even get near the US
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
448. Patrap
1:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
GOM IR Loop Link

NOLA rada ,20 Frame Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
447. conchygirl
1:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.
Yep, we are done with the season. Lovin' this weather!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
446. Orcasystems
1:05 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.


I was watching that big ugly spinning blog over the central US.. lots of pretty colours in it ;)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
444. 69Viking
12:58 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Good morning everyone! Yep, it's getting breezy on the Panhandle just as IKE said! I love weather like this. No Hurricane or Tropical Storm but some good ol fashion rain and wind!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
443. IKE
12:56 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
So.. all I can see happening in the next week or so is the one coming off the Yucatan, heading to the pan handle.. am I missing anything else?


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
441. Orcasystems
12:54 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
So.. all I can see happening in the next week or so is the one coming off the Yucatan, heading to the pan handle.. am I missing anything else?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
439. stillwaiting
12:53 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
forcast for sarasota,fl
today:showers and t-storms w/heavy rain 1-2 inches,25-35mph winds,tonight: heavy rain 1-2inches,20-30mph winds,friday:scatted t-storms,1-2 inches,20-30mph.....going to be a wet and windy end of the week here in SWFL!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
438. Orcasystems
12:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting stormdude77:


Not really, up here never really floods (in my neighborhood that is), although with pro - longed rainfall, anything can happen.


The joys of living on solid rock.. no floods
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
437. IKE
12:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
A lot are having it bad....

September foreclosures: 81,312 homes are lost
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
435. stormdude77
12:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting KBH:
storm, the link not going anywhere.....any slip and sliding in your area?


Not really, up here never really floods (in my neighborhood that is), although with pro - longed rainfall, anything can happen.
434. KBH
12:46 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
not sure the specific areas, but news clips showed a section close to the highway along east coast moving in the direction of the sea...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
433. IKE
12:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
Ike that low should be starting to form,thats the low thats going to come up to us on the weekend and smack us around a little.


I can see it starting to on satellite. Looks south of LA and MS coast...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
432. stillwaiting
12:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket

Deep layer moisture is poised to make a comeback northward across southern and central Florida through Friday. An area of low pressure over the central Gulf will draw a surface boundary northward from the Keys. Gusty winds will affect the Gulf with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through early Friday. Strong storms are possible Friday as the low moves across north Florida, with isolated tornadoes not out of the question. The atmosphere should stabilize on Saturday, as high pressure starts to build in and bring a cooldown in the long term.



vortix: this is the heavy rain,gusty winds I was forcasting for the west coast of FL on monday,lets just say you doubted me and saw no evidence of it...well there you go!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
431. stormdude77
12:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting pottery:
Chalky Mount washing away ??


Not exactly; it was in Canebridge in St. Joseph (along the east coast area)...
430. IKE
12:42 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Water temps near the coast of NW Florida have cooled into the low-mid 70's....strong winds out in the GOM....

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.05 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
429. NEwxguy
12:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Ike that low should be starting to form,thats the low thats going to come up to us on the weekend and smack us around a little.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
428. stormdude77
12:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Oh well, I can't get the link or image to post...I'll try again later.
427. pottery
12:40 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Chalky Mount washing away ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24452
426. KBH
12:40 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
storm, the link not going anywhere.....any slip and sliding in your area?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
425. IKE
12:39 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Breezy conditions here in the Florida panhandle...I can hear the acorns falling off of the trees and hitting my roof.

Partly sunny and 63 degrees. Rain on the way. Looks like a low is starting to get going in the GOM...non-tropical...shear running 60+ knots.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
424. Orcasystems
12:39 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Well at least it didn't look like it was raining on the camera...good start I guess
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
423. pottery
12:39 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
KBH, looks like Tobago is under heavy manners right now.

77, that link was boo! Come again.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24452
422. KBH
12:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
flooding and heavy rains continue to takes it toll on Barbados. Latest is landslips on parts of the east coast of the island, which is a high % clay.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
421. pottery
12:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Tear some heads off anyway, Rob. I was a contractor for 12 yrs up to 1985, when the oil price went bad then too. Subs are often sent to test our most fundamental instincts.
Come to think of it , the majority of people do that. Strange stuff man.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24452
420. NEwxguy
12:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
GM all,wow is it cold up here in the northeast,feels like late novemeber not October,looks like most of the country is below normal and stormy.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
419. stormdude77
12:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
417. KBH
12:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning, Orca, Rob.
Yoikes!! Some showers last night, but today looks more like downpour day....

Morning pottery,
gonna need to send you a dinghy today!
fingers crossed, one of the two will be clobbered with Ts today..where is that shear when you need it!?!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
416. RobDaHood
12:29 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
But she is a good swimmer LOL

ROFL - your killin me...

Thanks though, getting ready to go to a jobsite and straighten out a sub...You making me laugh probably saved someone's head from being torn off!

Yall have a good one and if anyone chats with "the boys" this morning tell them I said "Hi and Godspeed."
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32399

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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