Heavy rains from 91L kill 11 in Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2008

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A week of heavy rains over northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize due to Tropical Depression Sixteen and a Western Caribbean tropical disturbance (91L) have resulted in record flooding and deadly mudslides across the region. In Honduras, a nationwide state of emergency has been declared, and at least eleven people are dead and two missing from the flooding. Two large landslides blocked the Coyol River in western Honduras yesterday, forming a lake 500 feet deep. Engineers are attempting to drain the lake today, but they won't be helped by the weather--91L promises to move little the next two days, and will continue to dump heavy rains on the region. In Belize, damage is already estimated in the ten of millions, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. In northern Guatemala, at least 70 towns have been cut off by flood waters and a state of emergency has been declared. Satellite estimates (Figure 1) suggest up to a foot of rain has fallen over the region in the past week.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for the 6-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday October 20, 2008. The darker green colors are rains of about 300mm (twelve inches). Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Visible satellite loops show that the intensity and areal coverage of 91L's heavy thunderstorms have remained about the same the past 12 hours, and are primarily affecting Belize and the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The storm is located too close to land to develop into a tropical depression, and wind shear is also rather high, 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next three days. Steering currents are weak, and little movement is likely through Wednesday. Heavy rains will affect northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Thursday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida between Tampa and the Big Bend region on Friday night. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and 91L is expected to make a transition to a very wet extratropical storm by Friday. The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance, 91L.

Tuesday update on the portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck is scheduled to leave Wednesday from Charleston, South Carolina, loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods. The total cost to portlight will be approximately $5000-$7000, which will cover truck rental, fuel, lodging, and food. An additional $1750 will be spent for building materials for rebuilding over a dozen ramps for disabilities service organizations, so that clients have access to services. The goods will be delivered to Bridge City, the Bolivar Peninsula, and Houston. Wunderground member EmmyRose is giving the portlight team free room and board for the three days they will be in Texas.

Among the goods that will be delivered to the Hurricane Ike victims:

-Several cases of camping related supplies from Coleman
-$200 worth of supplies donated by Dick's Sporting Goods
-Several cases of socks from Harriss and Covington Hosiery, Inc.
-One pallet of 50 tents
-Several pallets of mens's, women's, and children's pants from Berle Mfg.
-50 manual wheelchairs donated by Cimarron Correctional Institution in Cimarron Correctional Institution in Cushing, Oklahoma, and distributed through Houston Mayors' Office on Disability Affairs
-Medical/surgical/clinical supplies to resuppy several coastal clinics operated by Gateway to Care
-7 manual hospital beds
-12 geriatric chairs on wheels
-Walkers, canes, crutches, bedside commodes
-Wound care supplies and adult diapers
-Several cases of catheters
-Several working powerchairs
-12 pallets of specifically requested supplies courtesy of WalMart
-Under garments from Haynes
-20 cases of garbage bags from Pactiv (Hefty)
-Enough food to feed a meal next Saturday to 400-500 people on Bolivar Peninsula trying to rebuild their lives. Wunderground member Vortfix has generously donated matching funds for this effort, and would like to personally challenge people to help out in a similar fashion.

In addition, the truck is stopping by Biloxi to pick up a host of cleaning supplies, moldicide, insect repellent, etc. from a group which is closing down after three years of post Katrina work.

If you'd like to make a donation to the effort, visit the portlight.org website or Stormjunkie's blog. There will also be a webcam running with live streaming video as events unfold during the trip: http://portlight.camstreams.com/. It's great to see the wunderground community coming together for this effort!

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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390. TampaSpin
2:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
I can't stay on but i just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review....thanks and GO RAYS!!

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
389. IKE
2:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
388. IKE
2:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
GOM visible w/NCEP fronts on has 2 lows now...one SE of Brownsville and the other on/off of the Yucatan coast/Belize area....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
387. stillwaiting
2:02 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Ike: if your talking about the area off belizes coast,it would not be a new invest as it has been the same area of broad low pressure for the last 120hrs,now the LLC that was there 36hrs ago,is gone,but it is the same low pressure area....if you were talking about the new "blob" to the south,then yes that would be a new invest,I personally think that are w/get absorbed into 91L....all of this is just my opinion though!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
386. HurricaneKing
1:57 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting IKE:
I don't see anything tropical yet, in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM. May take until tomorrow for a low to form. 91L went SW and died. This would be 92L if it were to be classified. May just be a non-tropical low, but looks to bring a big slug of moisture north with it. You can see it now heading that way on satellite...Link

Possible 92l would be the big thunderstorm cluster. former 91l is the little low/ thunderstorm cluster over belize.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
385. stillwaiting
1:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
91L should absorb the energy from that "new" area of interest, as it moves quickly to the NW.....91L now trying to wrap newly formed convection around its center which is just offshore...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
384. captainhunter
1:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
382. IKE

I agree. Nothing imminent. The likely 92L would be the one to watch.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
383. NEwxguy
1:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
interesting analysis at NHC this morning

THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...ULTIMATELY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY
MORNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI WILL GET
BETTER ORGANIZED...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15557
382. IKE
1:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
I don't see anything tropical yet, in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM. May take until tomorrow for a low to form. 91L went SW and died. This would be 92L if it were to be classified. May just be a non-tropical low, but looks to bring a big slug of moisture north with it. You can see it now heading that way on satellite...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
381. SpicyAngel1072
1:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:



..yea like 100-200 miles to the east, the current low off the coast should be the one the models have been picking up on as it moves slowly to the NNW,then North scraping the NE coast of the yucatan,then NE,crossing the FL peninsula between tampa and key west as a strong TS,I give 91L about a 60% chance of this,chances of a weak hurricane IMO about15%...


Are you talking about the 91 or the new one forming in the SW carribean? Where are you seeing the track? I missed this somewhere when I was looking this morning!! ugh! need more coffee :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
380. stillwaiting
1:31 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Oh ok. I believe the origin is close maybe needs to be shifted a tad east.



..yea like 100-200 miles to the east, the current low off the coast should be the one the models have been picking up on as it moves slowly to the North scraping the NE coast of the yucatan,then NE,crossing the FL peninsula between tampa and key west as a strong TS,I give 91L about a 60% chance of this,chances of a weak hurricane IMO about15%...as forcast monday,today 91L should begin to orgainize into a TC,as most atmospheric conditions have become codusive for this!!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
379. captainhunter
1:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Morning folks. Hey Ike, I'm thrilled about the rain headed our way but I can do without those temps you cited.. BRRRRR!
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
378. HurricaneKing
1:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.


Oh ok. I believe the origin is close maybe needs to be shifted a tad east.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
377. kmanhurricaneman
1:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
well of to work be back later
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
376. Nolehead
1:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
GM everyone, looks like that flair up in the SW carrib is getting interesting if it stays together....yep Ike, they are forcasting some hevy rains come thur...but offshore winds come friday afternoon for you local panhandle surfers!!! expecting 11' seas....love this time of the year when the fronts have some umph to them...
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
374. NEwxguy
1:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
GM,all,hope everyone's weather is better than mine here in Mass.,42 deg. North wind at 10-20
light rain,where did fall go.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15557
373. Orcasystems
1:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
morning Orcasystems!


Good morning :)
Almost all of the models have something coming out of the Caribbean, either the old 91L or the new one in the Southern section. I would rather the season just ended :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
372. kmanhurricaneman
1:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
looks like Paloma in the making, SW caribbean
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
371. kmanhurricaneman
12:57 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
morning Orcasystems!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
370. Orcasystems
12:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Good morning all :)

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
369. kmanhurricaneman
12:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
seem to have misplaced my quikscat link any one has that link, thanks
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
367. kmanhurricaneman
12:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
we got our share the last two days, ground all sogy water setlling every where ugh! but prefer that than the H word.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
366. IKE
12:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Looks like a washout day for Key West,FL....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
364. kmanhurricaneman
12:42 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
OUCH!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
363. IKE
12:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Gonna freeze up & turn muddy...

QPF


Looks like they forecast about an inch of rain here...higher amounts near the Pensacola area...over to the worlds most beautiful beaches in Panama City,FL~~~~~~~~
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
361. kmanhurricaneman
12:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
yeah saw that been monitoring, was a ull but now taking on a tropical system characteristics, too much sheer plus very good chance it wiil be pulled to the NE
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
360. HIEXPRESS
12:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting IKE:
My forecast, inland Florida panhandle, for Monday night....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 37 to 41 inland...41 to 46 near the coast.


Gonna freeze up & turn muddy...

QPF
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
359. chrisrw
12:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
G'day Pottery,
off topic, but india reckons they are going to finally kick our butts in cricket, not going to happen, it's not over until Bubbles Devere sings LOL (fat lady on little britian)


Well they sure as h*** kicked your butts in the first test!
357. IKE
12:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
CATL system...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
356. kmanhurricaneman
12:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Morning guys, what new i am looking at that flare up in the SW caribbean there is a anti cylone a loft could be developing, any thoughts?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
355. fmbill
12:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning fellow wundergounders..


Looks like the action has relocated to the sw Carrib this morning. So far tho doesn't appear that it is getting any respect from the powers that be.. Looks good on IR tho. Persistance is the key as always. Beautiful morn in P'cola. Clear and 60 degrees as of right now down on the Bayou Grande.


I noticed that flair up, too. I guess they'll wait to see if it lasts. Funny, it doesn't seem like the models saw this coming either.

BTW...my son & his wife just moved to the panhandle from Tampa. They're really enjoying the cooler weather.
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
353. pottery
12:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
I am out . Somebody has to work around here.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23869
352. IKE
12:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
My forecast, inland Florida panhandle, for Monday night....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 37 to 41 inland...41 to 46 near the coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
351. PensacolaDoug
12:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
G'morning fellow wundergounders..


Looks like the action has relocated to the sw Carrib this morning. So far tho doesn't appear that it is getting any respect from the powers that be.. Looks good on IR tho. Persistance is the key as always. Beautiful morn in P'cola. Clear and 60 degrees as of right now down on the Bayou Grande.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
350. pottery
12:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Lefty, a cold winter for you will be good for the oil-sellers. Look on the bright side LOL
But the signs here also point to a dry dry-season (dec-june) which is bad. I dont feel to deal with bush-fires for 3 months for one thing.
A cold Florida winter often means a dry dry season here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23869
349. WxLogic
12:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
:) ... heading out. TTL
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4925
348. IKE
12:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
i hate to post alot because i dont really know what im writing about. where is everyone? probally blogging stock mkt. that stuff is really depressing. what about farmers almanac calling for a rough winter for the ne. the snook fishing here in e cent fl has been outstanding and to us that is a sign of a cold winter coming.


This blog always dies in the winter. It died this year after IKE...most got burned out on the tropics for whatever reason.

Good thing...it's easier to post this time of year...no trolls...no one telling you not to quote someone else that is on their ignore list...etc.....

Weather never dies to me...it's almost always interesting....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
347. WxLogic
12:06 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.


I hear you...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4925
344. vortfix
11:56 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46051
343. aquak9
11:55 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
G'morning all.

Chat feature has been enabled on the travelcam. Please feel free to drop in and send your words of support. This is a public venue- thanks everyone! ♥
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25697
342. vortfix
11:53 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Precip forecast....Valid now thru 8am Saturday:


Photobucket

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46051
341. pottery
11:52 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Some heavy rain flaring up between Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, now. Those Islands are already very wet, and dont need more rain right now.
I, on the other hand, would love some in central Trinidad. All the rainfall has been missing me .......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23869

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.