Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2008

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An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance. Image credit: NOAA/Satellite Services Division.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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622. hurristat
8:23 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Hurricane Ekeka (1992)?


good.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
621. Orcasystems
2:28 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting 954FtLCane:
LOL.... Orca, it's my anniversary also today... 6 years of bliss for me. Congrats to both of us.

Congrats to you also :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
620. stormdude77
1:55 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
On the visible loop, there appears to be a MLC just north of Honduras (I would say around 16.6N, 85.7W). That's the area to watch throughout the day.
619. stillwaiting
1:53 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting vortfix:



I don't have an opinion about any of this and was not trying to state one.
I am only presenting the facts as we know them right now this morning...that's all.



actually,no your not. The only weather FACTs,are/is weather that has already occured,if you new anything about weather you'd know that weather conditions world-wide CHANGE by the second,so........according to your facts my area (sarasota),will get zero rainfall thru sat????,I don't think so!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
618. RobDaHood
1:51 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting StormW:
606. stillwaiting 9:40 AM EDT on October 20, 2008

morning storm!!!!!,gonna have a new syp for us this perfect SWFL morning???


Yes...later this a.m.


And the forecast is..."stillwaiting" (LOL)

Mornin' Storm
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
617. IKE
1:50 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
616. stillwaiting
1:49 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
ya I was ease-dropping on your"bitter"convo yesterday,its really good if you mix it w/gingerale or 7-up!!!,what a wooooonderful morning here on the beach,I'd say perfect morning....I'll ALWAYs except some of your local produce,I'm working on growing tomato's,jalepano's and strawberries for the winter...and you'll surely be entitled to some,when are you coming back from the "other" coast????,thurs-sat should be fun here locally if the GFDL pans out w/a strong TS going right over me/us!!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
615. vortfix
1:48 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES AREA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE
NORTH...AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 40N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF GUYANA
TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER
NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR
BELIZE...BUT GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW SHIFT WEST
OVERLAND AND WEAKENING. THIS LEAVES MODERATE TO FRESH EAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC.

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
613. surfmom
1:47 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
I do not frost at all - I just freeze - and then I am of NO USE
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
612. surfmom
1:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Congrats ORCA!! 29 is very respectable !!! I thought I was a relic with 25 years....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
611. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stormdude77:
20/1145 UTC 16.4N 86.1W T1.0/1.0 91L


Which means it's moved SE...or away from the coast. It should start heading back to the WNW or NW when the high finishes building on in.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
610. RobDaHood
1:43 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
... feeling better today -- must have been that nighttime beverage Pottery suggested


Glad to hear that. Hope you have a fun trip.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
609. stormdude77
1:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
20/1145 UTC 16.4N 86.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
608. vortfix
1:41 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:


your opinion is yours,and mine,mine..that said I respect your opinion 100%,but I'm just giving my personal sypnosis on the weather and for life and property issues,one should listen to local officals and NO ONE ELSE,although sometimes we on the board here know things BEFORE the nhc makes them known to the public......



I don't have an opinion about any of this and was not trying to state one.
I am only presenting the facts as we know them right now this morning...that's all.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
607. lawntonlookers
1:40 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Must have missed 91L. It has been there for a few days, but not moving much.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
606. stillwaiting
1:40 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
happy anni orca!!!!!!,its better to be,then to be without though!!!!



morning storm!!!!!,gonna have a new syp for us this perfect SWFL morning???
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
605. surfmom
1:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Stillwaiting - planning to drop off mango's this AM b/4 I depart to pirate paradise. Yesterday the weather really put me in "fish-shock"... 60 degrees in the AM and then up to 79 in the afternoon..... much prefer the 79... feeling better today -- must have been that nighttime beverage Pottery suggested
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
604. RobDaHood
1:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Orca

I don't do frost well :(

me either, and "Happy Anniversary"
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
603. lawntonlookers
1:37 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Good morning everyone. 28 degrees this AM in central PA. Suppose to get up to 63. Quite in the tropics this morning
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
601. RobDaHood
1:36 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
597. kmanislander

Thanks for the update kman. Alway look for your update from the front lines when storms are in that region.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
600. stillwaiting
1:36 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting vortfix:



Every system is different and causes a different set of problems.
I have seen no evidence anywhere within the NWS or the HPC that leads me to believe that 91L is going to cause any major problems yet for the state of Florida.



your opinion is yours,and mine,mine..that said I respect your opinion 100%,but I'm just giving my personal sypnosis on the weather and for life and property issues,one should listen to local officals and NO ONE ELSE,although sometimes we on the board here know things BEFORE the nhc makes them known to the public......
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
599. surfmom
1:35 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Good Morning Early Birds - Am I checking in to good news or bad news???? still wayyyy to early to know for sure about 91L's path......Paloma already looks to be MissyMischief, just fussing about in her corner--working us up w/expectation...women!! looks like I may be driving back into some "weather" on Saturday.

SMELLS LIKE MOOOSE in SRQ this morning -- think some of Orcas's cooler air has travel down here....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
598. 954FtLCane
1:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
LOL.... Orca, it's my anniversary also today... 6 years of bliss for me. Congrats to both of us.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
597. kmanislander
1:31 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Good morning all

Although the TWO still places 91L over the open water quikscat does not give any indication that there is a low where the NHC says it is. We do see the rotation on the satellite and to the extent that there is a surface low it would appear to be just inland near 15.8N 86.5W. Much of what we are seeing as "spin" would seem to be in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

This position is supported by the fact that Roatan has a South wind. 91L appears to be meandering around and producing heavy rain in the NW Caribbean. Since midnight last night I have recorded 1.45 inches at my home in Grand Cayman and it is still raining steadily, albeit not very heavy.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15707
596. RobDaHood
1:31 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:
...may I ask where you live????


If you're asking me...Highlands county, near Lake Placid. On NWS radar if you drew a line under the word "Sarasota" all the way to Hwy 27 you'd be within a few miles.

we've still got a day or two before we figure this one out. I'm feeling for folks in Belize, they've got to be sick of rain by now.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
594. vortfix
1:30 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Keeping in mind that we do not yet know what we're going to have as far as a system in Florida and we don't yet know where whatever it might be will go....here is the Precipitation Forecast for 8am Thursday thru 8am Saturday:


Photobucket

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
593. Orcasystems
1:25 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting LucieFl:
Congrats Orca!!!

You don't hear about that too often anymore!!

Many many more blissful moments!!!


Yup, almost half way thru my second consecutive sentence :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
592. LucieFl
1:24 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Congrats Orca!!!

You don't hear about that too often anymore!!

Many many more blissful moments!!!
591. Orcasystems
1:22 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Orca,

I did say hi and thank you but post got et...

Trying again

Good Morning Orca


I see the weather down there is getting a bit colder.. want to trade..its actually frosty this morning.. I don't do frost well :(

Anniversary today.... 29 years of ummmm wedded bliss I believe is the term they use.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
590. RobDaHood
1:21 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:


the latest hwrf and gfdl(TC guidance models) runs take it into srq or charlotte counties in swfl


Okay, see that now. colo.state tracks not updated yet. Went to FSU to see.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
589. stillwaiting
1:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
plus if a low is to our west then the flow will be from the South or SW which in west FL is a VERY moisture enriched flow!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
588. vortfix
1:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:
when we getshowers and t-storms as there calling for from a tropical airmass,the rain is usually heavy rain,not a light mist!!!,hope that clarifies things,and generally if we get a low in the southern GOM moving onshore here along the west coast of FL if the winds are anystronger than 30mph onshore some places along the water get coastal flooding,may I ask where you live????



Every system is different and causes a different set of problems.
I have seen no evidence anywhere within the NWS or the HPC that leads me to believe that 91L is going to cause any major problems yet for the state of Florida.

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
587. 954FtLCane
1:16 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Personally I think the fact they are calling for this area to move inland will obviously inhibit it from strengthening. Hopefully it remains disorganized until then and we have nothing more to worry about than rain. I don't want to see a Wilma scenario play out although atleast it late October and it wouldn't be too hot if we lost our electricity...lol
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
586. RTLSNK
1:14 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Tilling the gardens today, be back later.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20593
585. stillwaiting
1:13 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
when we getshowers and t-storms as there calling for from a tropical airmass,the rain is usually heavy rain,not a light mist!!!,hope that clarifies things,and generally if we get a low in the southern GOM moving onshore here along the west coast of FL if the winds are anystronger than 30mph onshore some places along the water get coastal flooding,may I ask where you live????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
584. Vero1
1:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 22N85W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM
21N88W TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. THE PORTION OF
THIS COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS EVIDENT IN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT AND CORRESPONDING CLOUD BANDS.
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF. FARTHER TO THE NW...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
S TEXAS TO THE S APPALACHIANS. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN NW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW AND
CENTRAL GULF...ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE N
GULF FROM THE SE CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
PRESENT OVER MEXICO...AND A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
W MEXICO NEAR 12N94W...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NEARBY E PACIFIC REGION.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
583. Vero1
1:10 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201225 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N87W...OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E AND SE OF
THE LOW...FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
582. vortfix
1:09 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO VEER. THE UPWARD POP TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THAT
TIME. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
STILL MODERATE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND THE ECMWF IN
REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
GFS REMAINS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND FURTHER NORTH WITH A LESS
DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF LAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND LATER IN TIME...PULLING A CIRCULATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PORTRAYED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR THOSE
LATER FORECAST PERIODS. BUT EITHER WAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL KEEP OUR RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE...AND REFINE
THE OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
581. stillwaiting
1:08 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:


Where are you seeing that? Only asking because most of the guidance I've seen looks more like Cedar Key, but maybe my pages aren't updating?


the latest hwrf and gfdl(TC guidance models) runs take it into srq or charlotte counties in swfl
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
580. RobDaHood
1:05 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Orca,

I did say hi and thank you but post got et...

Trying again

Good Morning Orca
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
579. vortfix
1:04 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
I don't see anything, anywhere calling for heavy rains and/or any coastal flooding in Florida:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

A CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND LATER
IN THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY GET
DRAWN INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYNOPTIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA...LIKELY BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
578. stillwaiting
1:02 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
morning orca!!!,feels like we've got some of your airmass down here in srq,62 degree air temp. right on the water(gom)!!!..lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
577. RobDaHood
12:56 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:
the models are starting to come into some agreement about 91L's path into SWFL,somewhere between tampa and naples.....


Where are you seeing that? Only asking because most of the guidance I've seen looks more like Cedar Key, but maybe my pages aren't updating?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
576. stillwaiting
12:55 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
I'm naming 91L "uncle fester" as its been a staple in the gulf of guat. the last 72-96hrs,I'm starting to think that 91L MIGHT be a large storm area wise...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
575. Orcasystems
12:52 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
Good morning everyone :)

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
574. stillwaiting
12:52 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
oh shoot!!!,I forgot today is Hurricane Thanksgiving!!!!...pottery???
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
573. stillwaiting
12:47 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
the models are starting to come into some agreement about 91L's path into SWFL,somewhere between tampa and naples.....no matter how strong it is,thurs-sat there's a good chance of heavy rain,gusty winds and possibly some coastal flooding.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
572. ftpiercecane
12:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
could 91L be one of mother natures last laughes this season?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.