Tropical Storm Omar on the way; Honduras disturbance growing stronger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2008

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Tropical Depression Fifteen is lashing northern Colombia, northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains today, as the storm drifts to the southeast. This morning's 6:35 am EDT QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 45 mph, so this is probably Tropical Storm Omar. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm beginning at 2 pm EDT today. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is on the increase, and the cloud pattern is growing more organized. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10-15 knots over TD 15, allowing this increased organization to occur. Radar from the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain has organized into spiral rain bands.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 15.

The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to drift southeastward until an upper-level trough of low pressure swings far enough south tonight to pull the storm northeastward towards Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Variations in timings between the models have narrowed some, with landfall in the Virgin Islands, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, or eastern Puerto Rico expected sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Heavy rains should spread into the islands tonight, generating additional rainfall totals of 5-10 inches. The eastern portion of the Dominican Republic will likely get 3-6 inches, and Haiti will escape heavy rains from the storm.


Figure 2. Current radar-estimated rainfall from TD 15.

The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next two days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds by the time it moves through the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 15 will have 65-75 mph sustained winds at landfall Wednesday night.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Tropical Depression 16 off the coast of Honduras
Tropical Depression 16, near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, continues to grow more organized. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is beginning to take on a spiraling pattern. Heavy rains are affecting extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are ripe for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm, and a Hurricane Hunter airplane will investigate the storm beginning at 2 pm EDT. The system is expected to track west-northwest today, just off the coast of Honduras. A more west-southwesterly motion may occur tonight and Wednesday, bringing the storm ashore over northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras today through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are likely today over northeastern Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands. Heavy rains of 4-8 inches will likely affect Belize, northeastern Guatemala, and portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Wednesday night. The heaviest rains will stay south of the resort areas of Cancun and Cozumel, though.

It currently appears that the center of TD 16 will stay close enough to the coast that the storm will not grow large and strong enough to tap into the Pacific Ocean as a major source of moisture. However, the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm is already strong enough that it is pulling in air from the Pacific over northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This moist flow of air should generate rain amounts of 2-4 inches today along the Pacific coasts of these countries. If 99L were to grow into a strong tropical storm, this moist flow of air would be capable of generating very dangerous rains in the 10-15 inch range along the Pacific coast of Central America.

Links to follow
Puerto Lempira, Honduras weather


Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana has been torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. Regeneration is unlikely due to the continued high wind shear expected along its path. A small area of disturbed weather south-southeast of Nana, near 15N, 41W (90L), has decreased in organization this morning. The circulation of this "child of Nana" is less apparent on this morning's QuikSCAT pass, and the low-level circulation has now been exposed to view, thanks to high wind shear. Nana has pulled her child northward into a region of higher wind shear, and this shear should prevent the 90L from developing any further.


Figure 4. Current satellite image of 90L, the Child of Nana.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!

Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.


Figure 5. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City Fire Department opening supplies sent by Portlight. Supplies were not only needed but also greatly appreciated.

Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters have had time to sample today's storms.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 586 - 536

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586. PRweather
2:56 AM GMT on October 15, 2008
PR51...your prediction is as wrong as your name...sit back and watch the news in five minutes...
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
585. gwadaman
10:25 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting DDR:

One of many to come.I'm in Trinidad,expecting to see a lightening show maybe tonight or tomorrow as the feeder bands approach.


Yes, very much so! as Omar gets closer to the Island Chain. I have one 3" trash pump running alredy and 2 more on standby, Barbados can't take anymore water. At present the rain has stopped for a while now, winds are from.........they is no wind and just waiting for DMAX to kick in later and the process to start all over again.

Think its time to have a Rum and see how it develops from there.......the Rum hat is..LOL
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
584. IKE
9:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
583. KBH
9:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
I might also need a neck brace as it looks like it will be a whip lash as well
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
582. KBH
9:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
thanks for the warning DR. I am in Barbados and after today's floods I think dingys will be the mode of transportation when that system comes!!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
581. DDR
9:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting gwadaman:
Brace yourselves as we can watch an expect a big lash as the South feeder band prepares to swipe the Island chain from South to North

One of many to come.I'm in Trinidad,expecting to see a lightening show maybe tonight or tomorrow as the feeder bands approach.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1729
580. PR51
8:13 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
When those persons are saying that there is a NE movement in Omar, in what evidence they are relying? Because I haven't seen that turn yet. Let's see the 5 PM. I bet for more SE movement and a readjustment of the projected path more than 150 miles from our east coast.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
579. HurakanPR
8:13 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
cyclone- Perhaps a hurricane tonight !!!
578. PcolaDan
8:11 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
577. SSideBrac
8:10 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
are my eyes deceiving me or is there some interaction between Omar and TD 16?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
576. Dar9598
8:07 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Thanks a lot, GreyElf.
575. Thundercloud01221991
8:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
pressure 986 on last pass 64 knt winds

virtually a hurricane
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
574. Greyelf
8:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
New blog.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
573. antonio28
8:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting cycloone:
wow! Omar might be a cane tomorrow!


I say tonight! a 70mph at 5pm and the eight cane of the season at 11pm.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
572. SSideBrac
8:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting benirica:
weather is deliciously unpredictable...
but you have to admit it is prtty cool how things can be predicted.
like how this trof would dip down like this and all.
the advances made in studying weather are really awesome


All I can say is "Thank heaven for modern forecasting" despite erros and anomalies. I cannot even imagine what real old timers (actually only back as far as 1930s even)went thru in Schooners out and about in Caribbean and/or on small Islands.
Cayman Brac Museum has a very poignant Memorial to all the victims of the "32 Storm" including those who perished at sea.
We are fortunate how modern science helps us so much
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
571. Dar9598
8:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
The Leewards Islands at high risk of Waves in the Caribbean sea. Unlike such storm and intensity like Ivan Emily and Dean, a reversal Hurricane moving westward to eastward will Double his high waves like Klaus, that was even more destructive than a major hurricane and Lenny.
570. Greyelf
8:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Dar9598:
Can someone put the track of "El Zorito" or "Wrong Way Lenny" please.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
569. Relix
8:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Wooow.. this looks bad. Stronger... and turning NE before expected.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
568. gwadaman
7:59 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Brace yourselves as we can watch an expect a big lash as the South feeder band prepares to swipe the Island chain from South to North
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
567. HurakanPR
7:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Puerto Rico is a colony ,woops, americans hate that word, should say territory,we don't vote for the president,only delegates to the parties conventions. Back to Omar, getting stronger,watch out, just in case doesn't jog to the west, putting its eye on top of us, in a direct hit scenario.
566. Dar9598
7:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
OMAR DOESN'T MOVE NE YET. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. I SEE A SE MOVEMENT ANT IT BECOME A BIT MORE ASYMETRIC.
565. cycloone
7:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
564. Sfloridacat5
7:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Autistic2:
Good afternoon,

Does all this trough, high pressure mean the season is over fo florida now?


No
It just protecting Florida right now. Once that high moves out of the way, the door will open back up for a possible system.
We still need to keep our guard up.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
563. Bonedog
7:56 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Seastep I just read the 70mph wind speed when I refreshed LOL

The winds are starting to catch up probably because of what I just mentioned in my previous post
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
562. cycloone
7:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.
Example:
Gustav: 08/28 15 GMT 70MPH 983MB
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
561. Autistic2
7:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Good afternoon,

Does all this trough, high pressure mean the season is over fo florida now?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
560. Seastep
7:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.


Yep... but it is at 70, basically... 69mph
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
559. Bonedog
7:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
CENTER 20 NM NEARLY CIRCULAR WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING CENTER

I say thats showing impressive structure. Last remarks were open eye now cicular with feeder bands.

Now we should see the winds picking up.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
558. lawntonlookers
7:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Out for the day. Will check back in in the morning. Close to 70 mph surface winds and the Recon is making another pass. Have a good evening.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
557. benirica
7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Oh, also. she said the wind field expanded.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
556. benirica
7:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
ok.
the meteorologist confirmed it.
i had my doubt, but i trust her 100%.
she said that the pressure is almost hurricane strength and that satellite images show it has turned to the North East, or is about to.
A little earlier then thought.
I dont think its an issue for the track, it confirms it for me.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
555. Bonedog
7:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
554. cycloone
7:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
wow! Omar might be a cane tomorrow!
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
553. benirica
7:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
weather is deliciously unpredictable...
but you have to admit it is prtty cool how things can be predicted.
like how this trof would dip down like this and all.
the advances made in studying weather are really awesome
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
552. Bonedog
7:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2008


impressive overshooting tops right at the center
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
551. Sfloridacat5
7:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
The Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop really shows what's going on.
You can see the strong High Pressure starting to build down into the S.E. and off shore waters. That High Pressure will protect the Mainland U.S. for a while.
Possibly next week something could sneak back up from the Caribbean?
But for now that High is a blocking force pushing everthing away from it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
550. CybrTeddy
7:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Brand new Vortex message
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:06:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1354'N 6846'W (13.9N 68.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 325 miles (524 km) to the SSE (167) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,322m (4,337ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (154) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 229 at 63kts (From the SW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (159) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19C (66F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:02:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER 20 NM NEARLY CIRCULAR WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
549. Relix
7:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
I can't see the NE movement component.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
548. benirica
7:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
amen to that...
youll also probably know storms ar always gulf bound here too!
lol
just playing with you guys
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
547. HurakanPR
7:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Puertoricans avoid rumors, do what is proper, under this circunstances, our major threat from this system or any system are the floods.
546. cycloone
7:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
the winds should be at 70 MPH to match Omar's 989 MB
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
545. fwbweather
7:46 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
I am a long time lurker, but feel the need to comment on something. The vast majority of people here provide a valuable service by getting much need information on these storms and projected paths out to the public.

However, I have also noticed a small number here that think they know everything about the weather and seem to wish that every little thing that flares up to become a catagory 5 storm that will destroy lives.

I count on people here to keep me informed and I give you a big thumbs up. For the few that want death and destruction (GET A LIFE).
544. Bonedog
7:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.3mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.3 4.5 4.6
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
543. jcpoulard
7:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
I really think the FUJI..... effect have starting between TD 16 and OMAR.... Make a look at this picture and you will see mnore about that :



Member Since: September 15, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 114
542. cycloone
7:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
wow! 989 MB is not a misreading
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
541. Dar9598
7:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
In Dominica they can experience minimum 12 foot waves and maximum 15 foot waves and Gradual increasing in the northen Islands like Lenny and Klaus.
540. antonio28
7:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting JRRP:

i think it´s moving NE now


Yep and pushing the GAS!! PR landfall??
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
539. benirica
7:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Anyone notice how it looks ugly on the floater...
Its a huge system and you need to look at the Caribbean images to fully appreciate it and see its structure.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
538. Sfloridacat5
7:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Relix:


I am seeing that, but...isn't it too early?


Never say never when dealing with weather. Anythings possible.
We've seen plenty of storms do the opposite of what's expected.
But with high pressue diving down over the S.E. and a strong N.E flow out a head of it, Omar should get moving pretty soon.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
537. fwbweather
7:41 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
l
536. futuremet
7:41 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Dar9598:
Can someone put the track of "El Zorito" or "Wrong Way Lenny" please.


Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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