Little change to TD 15; new Caribbean distubance gathering strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2008

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Tropical Depression Fifteen continues to move little as it spins over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has just arrived, and found a 1001 mb central pressure at 5:47 pm EDT, and top surface winds of 35-40 mph. Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059 is in the heavy thunderstorm region to the east of TD 15's center, and recorded sustained winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this afternoon. However, the heaviest thunderstorms now lie very close to the center of circulation, a sign the storm is getting more organized. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10-15 knots over TD 15, allowing this increased organization to occur. Radar from Puerto Rico and the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain area is poorly organized, with no spiral rain bands evident. Dominican Republic radar was down this afternoon.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 15.

The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to move little through Tuesday afternoon. An upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to position itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday afternoon, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this trough should draw TD 15 to the northeast across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or the eastern Dominican Republic on Wednesday or Thursday. There are considerable timing variations between the models. The fastest model is the GFDL, which predicts a Wednesday morning landfall in Puerto Rico. The slower NOGAPS and UKMET models predict a Thursday morning landfall. If a Wednesday landfall occurs, it would probably be as a tropical storm with 50-60 mph winds. A landfall delayed until Thursday would allow a stronger storm to develop, and TD 15 could be a Category 1 hurricane in this case. Up to five inches of rain has already fallen over the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico (Figure 2), but the heaviest rains have retreated to the south for the time being. Heavy rains are likely to develop over these islands again on Tuesday, and move into the eastern Dominican Republic and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Additional rain amounts of 5-10 inches are likely over some of these regions. Over Puerto Rico, isolated rain amounts in excess of 20 inches are possible before the storm clears the islands by Thursday. It currently appears that Haiti will only get 1-2 inches of rain from TD 15.


Figure 2. Current radar-estimated rainfall from TD 15.

The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a tropical storm by Tuesday. The HWRF and GFDL models both intensify TD 15 into a Category 1 hurricane before it hits Puerto Rico on Wednesday. This seems overly aggressive, given the moderate 10-20 knots of wind shear expected. I'm expecting Thursday will be the earliest that TD 15 will become a hurricane.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Disturbance 99L off the coast of Nicaragua
An area of disturbed weather (99L) has formed in the Southwest Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. An ASCAT pass from 11:28 am EDT showed a circulation center developing near 14N 83W, about 100 miles offshore from Puerto Cabeza, Nicaragua. The pressure there was 1005 mb and falling at 3 pm EDT today. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that is increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Heavy rain has moved into extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for 99L
Most of the models forecast development of a tropical depression in this region by Wednesday. The system is expected to track northwest, just off the coast of Central America, until Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing 99L to the west. It currently appears that the center of 99L will remain over water, which should allow the storm to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras tonight through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Heavy rains may also spread over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon. It is 40% likely that the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm will grow large and strong enough to tap the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture, triggering very heavy rains of 10-15 inches along the Pacific coasts of northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua Tuesday through Thursday. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing severe flooding and life-threatening mudslides. By Thursday, 99L could be as far west as Belize (as forecast by the GFDL model), or wandering erratically in the Western Caribbean (as forecast by the NOGAPS model). Heavy rains will likely begin affecting Belize, northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday. If the storm is large enough, if will also bring heavy rains to the Pacific coasts of Honduras and El Salvador beginning on Wednesday. No models are currently forecasting a threat to the U.S. in the coming seven days from 99L.


Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana, over the middle Atlantic Ocean, is being torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. A small vortex near 13N, 42W (90L) that was part of the original disturbance that developed into Nana, has developed its own cluster of heavy thunderstorms. The circulation of this "child of Nana" is apparent on this morning's ASCAT pass, which noted top winds of 25 mph on the south side. The child of Nana is south of the region of high wind shear affecting Nana, in a region where the shear is only 5-10 knots. Nana should be able to pull its child northwestward into the higher shear region on Tuesday, but this may be enough time for the child of Nana to develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 4. Current satellite image of 90L, the Child of Nana.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!

Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.


Figure 5. These are the supplies that were shipped.

Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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816. nibiru
6:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
also very rough seas at the coastel area,trees down, roofs blown off , flooding , fusebox fires, wanted too know if someone can tell me if its coming this way or not?? thx
815. nibiru
6:17 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
very bad weather here in aruba strong winds and rain from sw , are we in the storm or just outside bands ?
814. Cotillion
3:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
We have TD16 and Omar..

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N...69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.




Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
813. HurakanPR
3:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
No tropical depresion ,but Omar at 11:00am
812. stormpetrol
2:21 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
IF TD15 keep drifting south it might end up onshore in SA.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
811. stormpetrol
2:11 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
The same trough that is supposed to pull Td15 N, then NE is supposed to push TD16 to the west or SW, lets see if this pans out so far its not doing so with TD15.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
810. sdcbassman
2:09 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no IKE but i wish they think 1st be for saying words if you no what i mean and no i dont have any snow at all so i dont no why or what he was talking about he can ask me that when i get my 1st snow fall


Taz ... im sure ALOT of people around here wish YOU WOULD THINK before you type. Lighten up dude. Funny that YOU of ALL PEOPLE would say that. Dude was just asking you about the snow. Look at your picture and CHILL OUT!!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
809. NEwxguy
2:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away last October and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.

So I take that to mean you don't want to return for more?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
808. WxLogic
1:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting IKE:
TD16 WILL be a TS...I'm calling it>>>



I'm with you... I believe TD16 has a 55% and TD15 has a 45% chance of becoming a TS first... but they will be very close. Whoever becomes the dominant low first... should greatly impact the other. Specially if TD16 goes to TS first.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
807. kmanhurricaneman
1:56 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
RIP 90L
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
806. sporteguy03
1:56 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Afternoon!

I see we have our 16th storm of the season....Thankfully by the look of the ridge forcasted to develope this thing has no were to go but onshore possible even moving SW in time.Just dont see this as florida/gulf threat based on everything ive seen.Things can change but that what iam seeing. Adrian

Here's a view at this afternoon's early models reflecting a SW motion in time. Adrian


Wow, Adrian, are you away from FL? I did not know it was already afternoon here, I have just before 10am :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
805. Relix
1:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Wow Taz just went berserk for a simple comment... geesh, someone's a bit sentimental or something.

Anyway... from PR... it's cloudy, no rains the north coast where I am. Yet. News saying the arrival will be delayed and that it will pass to the east.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
804. sporteguy03
1:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
788. IKE 6:46 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year



i no and i said i was sorry i hop 03 nos that



Its all Good Taz, don't sweat it, I figured you had gotten snow by looking at your picture.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
803. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.


I agree to you and NEwxguy...once is enough. I lived in east Tennessee...it's no fun with snow and ice storms.

Here...if it ever snows, it usually melts by the next day. It is a pain in the a** to deal with.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
800. nrtiwlnvragn
1:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
799. IKE
1:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting KendallHurricane:
who and where does it show that 99L is now TD 16 i just got back on


Navy site...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=10&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD =track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlan tic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
798. champagnedrmz
1:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Guess that makes me a wish-snow-caster.


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away last October and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.
797. Seastep
1:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
796. KendallHurricane
1:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
who and where does it show that 99L is now TD 16 i just got back on
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 498
795. IKE
1:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
TD16 WILL be a TS...I'm calling it>>>

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
794. kmanhurricaneman
1:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
wow morning all tempers are flaring this AM !
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
793. NEwxguy
1:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
I'm sure by the time my winter is done Ike,I'll be more than happy to send you some of mine.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
792. Tazmanian
1:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
788. IKE 6:46 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year



i no and i said i was sorry i hop 03 nos that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
791. champagnedrmz
1:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


Why are you so defensive? He didn't threaten your life. He asked about snow which is weather related. Not tropical but weather.
790. IKE
1:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting IKE:


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year.


Guess that makes me a wish-snow-caster.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
789. Tazmanian
1:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
i no IKE but i wish they think 1st be for saying words if you no what i mean and no i dont have any snow at all so i dont no why or what he was talking about he can ask me that when i get my 1st snow fall
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
788. IKE
1:46 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
787. KBH
1:46 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
where is the link for TD16?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
786. Nolehead
1:46 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
um taz, look at your pic?!?! i'm sure that's where he got that from....
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
785. Tazmanian
1:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
784. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
775. sporteguy03 6:34 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?




what are you talking about??? am not geting snow one more thing like that and i put you up on my Ignore i wont get any snow in tell may be late oct or nov



now back too TD 15 and TD 16



hmmm??????????????????????????????????

He was just asking you....like a friend to a friend.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
783. hurricane23
1:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Afternoon!

I see we have our 16th storm of the season....Thankfully by the look of the ridge forcasted to develope this thing has no were to go but onshore possible even moving SW in time.Just dont see this as florida/gulf threat based on everything ive seen.Things can change but that what iam seeing. Adrian

Here's a view at this afternoon's early models reflecting a SW motion in time. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
782. Tazmanian
1:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
775. sporteguy03 6:34 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?




what are you talking about??? am not geting snow one more thing like that and i put you up on my Ignore i wont get any snow in tell may be late oct or nov



now back too TD 15 and TD 16
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
781. KBH
1:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
from Barbados, the rains from a tropical wave have started. Been raining for 15 minutes and I can see some flooding outside...and to think TD15 looks like it is coming this way
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
780. Tazmanian
1:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
whats see wish one gets the O storm 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
777. IKE
1:35 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:


Why are you so surprised this blog thought 94L was RIP too, happens with every system just ask Ike.


True.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
775. sporteguy03
1:34 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
774. pottery
1:34 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Morning Taz.
Its all happening man.
Good to see you...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24884
773. sporteguy03
1:33 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:
btw someone last night said td 16 was not going to form and said it was R.I.P


Why are you so surprised this blog thought 94L was RIP too, happens with every system just ask Ike.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
771. Tazmanian
1:32 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
i see we now have TD 16
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
770. IKE
1:30 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:
btw someone last night said td 16 was not going to form and said it was R.I.P


Well...they were wrong...has some banding type features.

Looks like 90L is falling apart.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
768. IKE
1:27 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:
he have td 16 on the navy site


Sure do.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
766. fmbill
1:25 PM GMT on October 14, 2008
SWFMD Models
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 469

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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