Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will get heavy rains from 98L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 12, 2008

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A large region of low pressure (98L) has developed over the eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. Wind shear is a high 20-25 knots over the disturbance, but waters are warm, about 29° C. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed surface circulation. Top winds seen by QuikSCAT were about 30 mph. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is moderate and increasing. At 3 pm EDT, visible satellite loops showed signs that a low level surface circulation may be starting to form near 15N 67.5W, about 200 miles south of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 98L.

The forecast for 98L
Wind shear is expected to fall to the moderate 15-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow 98L to slowly organize and approach tropical depression status 1-2 days from now. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models all indicate the 98L will come close to developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, when it is expected to be near or over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. The HWRF forecasts that 98L will organize into a tropical storm that will hit Puerto Rico Tuesday morning. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands are likely to receive heavy rains of 4-8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, during the period Monday through Thursday.

An upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and park itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low should draw 98L to the north across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Wednesday. NHC is giving 97L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

97L
An area of disturbed weather (97L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-organized closed circulation. However, wind shear of 30 knots is allowing just a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity to cling to the east side of the storm. This morning's QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 40-45 mph in these heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical cyclone under high wind shear--a low level circulation center exposed to view, with a clump of heavy thunderstorms on the side away from where strong upper-level winds are blowing.


Figure 2. Current satellite image of 97L.

The forecast for 97L
There is a chance shear may relax a little this afternoon, which may allow enough heavy thunderstorm activity to build and convince NHC to call this system Tropical Storm Nana. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high 35-40 knot range Monday and Tuesday, which should prevent any further development. NHC is giving 97L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models continue to forecast the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5-7 days from now.


Figure 3. Hurricane Norbert over the Gulf of California at 23:45 GMT Saturday October 11, 2008. At the time, Norbert was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Tropical Storm Odile is visible at lower right. Image credit: NASA Goddard.

Norbert
Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the west coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula Saturday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Norbert crossed Baja and the Gulf of California, making a second landfall on mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Norbert made landfall along a sparsely populated stretch of the coast about 145 miles northwest of the resort town of Cabo San Lucas. The storm tore off roofs and flooded homes knee-deep in the town of Puerto San Carlos, near where the eye came ashore. The remains of Norbert are expected to slosh into the Midwestern U.S. on Monday and combine with an area of low pressure over Kansas. The resulting storm could trigger rains in excess of seven inches, according to the latest forecast from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 4).


Figure 4. Forecast rain amounts for the five-day period ending Friday, October 17, 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Saturday's update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
I got this very nice email yesterday, giving appreciation for all those who helped out through the portlight.org Hurricane Ike charity effort:


I just wanted to express my sincere gratitude, on behalf of the City of Houston, the Mayor, and our community partners over at TIRR/Memorial Hermann, for all of your involvement in bringing medical supplies and equipment together to help Texans with disabilities affected by Hurricane Ike. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate the fact that you so quickly mobilized and leveraged such a tremendous amount of support to bring these needed items to Houston and other Texas cities.

An email simply doesn't do justice to the generous spirit and initiative that you, Paul Timmons, and your partners took to make this happen, nor to our gratitude. However, I just want you to know that we think about you all in appreciation every single day over here, and there are many who are directly benefiting from your generosity.

By the way, Paul Timmons mentioned that it looks like another shipment of 30-50 wheelchairs can be sent over here. All I can say is wow! Thank you for not forgetting about us, and for realizing that we still have a lot of needs here that we are trying to meet - even 4 weeks after the hurricane.

Again, please accept my sincere thanks. I hope that you have a wonderful weekend!

Michelle Colvard, MPH
Executive Director
Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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923. Thundercloud01221991
2:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
you think 99L will be red alert??? at next update
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
922. Seastep
2:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
921. IKE
2:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
99L......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
920. IKE
2:06 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
first time this yr i have seen a rapidly developing td 99 the system was really weak yesterday. is there a rule on distance for a fujiwara effect? seems close enough ike


I think it's within 600 miles.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
919. KEHCharleston
2:06 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Geeze Louise, no wonder I confused myself, I was thinking we were talking about 98l/TD15
Did not see 99l
I suppose coffee with my chores, then I will be back.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
918. alpha992000
2:06 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting benirica:
Whatever can happen with this seems it will be without warning


Hey Benirica! While I do agree this event looks bad for us as it might bring precipitation we certainly not need, I think it's been said enough over the past couple of days that we have to watch 98L closely. I know most were busy planning the holiday weekend, but I guess responsible people is keeping an eye on the weather. It's been raining in here since Friday, and you know we don't need a named system for flooding to wreck havoc. Hope everyone learned their lesson after what happened a couple weeks ago.
Member Since: October 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
917. Seastep
2:05 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?


KEH - that post was for 99L not TD15. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
915. Vero1
2:02 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
914. IKE
2:00 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
99L models...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
913. KEHCharleston
2:00 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
I am the captain of my own ship. So I suppose, I will have to make myself walk the plank if I do not get some work done. I will be workin' and lurkin'
I think I just might see the sun coming out!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
912. IKE
2:00 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
There's a trough coming down this weekend to the SE USA. That may influence 99L's eventual path.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
911. IKE
1:59 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
99L is flaring up with convection.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
910. IKE
1:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?


Have high pressure building in to it's north. Don't think it will head NE right now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
909. KEHCharleston
1:54 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
RE 904. IKE Northerly path of TD15

Is this the beginning of the curve to the east?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
908. Vero1
1:53 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 13.4 82.1W — Movement: N .......

99L...moving north...watch out Caymans...Cuba...if that path continues!

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAS COAST.
THIS FLOW IS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 17N TO
18N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. ALL THIS IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE CUBA-TO-HONDURAS LINE. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CUBA-TO-HONDURAS LINE.

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
907. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
might get alittle fujiwara 98 99


Their about 750 miles apart.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
905. IKE
1:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
98L should wind up being Omar.

99L may wind up being Paloma.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
904. IKE
1:48 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 13.4 82.1W — Movement: N .......

99L...moving north...watch out Caymans...Cuba...if that path continues!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
903. benirica
1:47 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Storm. It is people like you that let people like me get ready and warn everyone I can.
Whatever can happen with this seems it will be without warning.
I can't imagine the effects rapid intensification would have on anyone, not just here in Puerto Rico.
I know its not likely, but anything is possible and you MUST prepare for the worst!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
902. surfmom
1:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
I'm off to peeking & lurking.....the Captain is on deck and I don't want to walk the plank.....old trophy wives can be replaced.... LOL - oh yeah,due to the economic forecast.... too expensive to do that now WHEW!
Candle lit, prayer in mind for all those in need this morning... rain rain go away leave PR for another day....this include S.Domingo and Haiti
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
901. KEHCharleston
1:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
RE:894. THUNDERPR
Thanks! I see it now on the navy page.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
900. IKE
1:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where is 99L going to be


I'll guess western Caribbean...near Nicaragua. Looks impressive on satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
899. stormpetrol
1:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
I see we now have a new Invest 99L In the SW caribbean near/ around 13N/82W.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
898. Thundercloud01221991
1:45 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Navy site has 99L.....


where is 99L going to be
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
897. GoodOleBudSir
1:45 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Navy site has 99L.....


Wunderground too
Member Since: July 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
896. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Navy site has 99L.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
895. surfmom
1:42 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
so true Homelesswanderer - !!! StormW did get quite a few people off the couch and to safer ground -- You did/do make a difference... never doubt that Storm!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
894. THUNDERPR
1:41 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Information About Tropical Depression FifteenStorm information valid as of: Monday, October 13, 2008 12:00 Z 14.9N 69.6W Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)

Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)

Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
893. KEHCharleston
1:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
While we are waiting for StormW's analysis, I offer you this website.
Charleston Bump. (Though, on second thought it may only be of interest to fisherman, and both Carolinas ( do not tell press I said that)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
892. IKE
1:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike and you can sleep in!


I'll try....perfect weekend....blue skies...lower humidity!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
891. homelesswanderer
1:39 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting StormW:
882. KEHCharleston 9:27 AM EDT on October 13, 2008
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.


I hear ya KEH...that is the part that's painful for me as a meteorologist...I can forecast the stuff, but when it develops and does things like it's doing now, there's not a damn thing I can do about it. It's kind of a helpless feeling.
Good morning Storm. Dont feel too bad. Your forecasts do help. The slosh model and your prediction of Ike's surge helped convince me to evacuate. You made it to where I could understand it. And I'm forever grateful. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
890. surfmom
1:38 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.





In total agreement KEH, I find watching these train wrecks in motion really get to me. --I imagine it must affect the forecasters as well --also keeps things in perspective -- it's not us two leggeds in charge - Nature rules. Thoughts out to those on the lovely Island of PR - hope everyone stays SAFE! think this gets a candle this morning
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
889. alpha992000
1:38 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Good morning, guys. Whoa, went to bed for a bit and suddenly all models shifted and put 98L right across us (PR). It's a holiday in here today, and I really hope people pay attention to the weather. I'm in the Rio Piedras area, and though we've had some heavy showers, it's the constant drizzle that's worrisome.
Member Since: October 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
888. Vero1
1:33 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Good Morning StormW...Waiting on your synopsis.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
886. PuntaGordaPete
1:31 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
AAL 15 has just been posted on the ATCF FTP page.
Member Since: September 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
885. surfmom
1:30 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
That is fascnating -- to be able to listen to bivalves -- it's nice to be so still, so quiet --that you can hear the life.

Reminds me of of the aftermath of a bad redtide. My son and I were investigating what was left of a particular cove we are very fond of snorkeling.... what we noticed (and had never noticed before) was the shroud of silence that covered everything. No chirps, clickings --sounds of life, fish -- just total silence. B/4 that I never paid attention or had the ear/awarness to hear the underwater songs..... the silence was unnerving
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
883. RobDaHood
1:28 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
874. benirica

I noticed with the 0600 runs the intensity guidance seemed to pick up across the board.
The HWRF has been kinda wacked on intensity for most of the season, but I wouldn't take my eyes off this one.

0600 intensity quidance

Most show a Mid TS to Mid CAT1
I didn't expect to see this thing blow up as much as it did overnight.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30632
882. KEHCharleston
1:27 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
RE:877. benirica

This is the part of watching the tropics that is not fun. To see the tragedy in the making, and yet be unable to affect the course of things, except through prayer and contributions to organizations such as portlight.org and Lambi.




Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
881. benirica
1:25 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good morning Storm!
I would love to get your fill on 98
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
880. surfmom
1:24 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
LOL - Rob -- In real life I'm very little, it's why I love the blog - I can write BIG
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
878. THUNDERPR
1:23 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
benirica i live in Levittown P.R. 98L look bad for us and gfdl,hwrf,cmc and nam forming a hurricane over us.
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
877. benirica
1:20 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
just like steve lyons said at 10am yesterday things are looking bad for Puerto Rico he said yesterday the system could be around for a few days until it gets picked up. good luck to our boriquen friends.


Whoa he said that?
This is very sad for us.
People are still cleaning out their homes and only now beginning to get money and help from FEMA. Also, soils aren't dry yet.
On the news they continue to show the map of how much rain is needed to flood us after the last event... Guess how much.
1.5 inches in three hours would flood parts of Puerto Rico with the current soil saturation.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS???
A SECOND 100 YEAR FLOOD IN TWO WEEKS!

The Greater Antilles have had enough!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
876. KEHCharleston
1:18 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Any other live-aboard notice the sound of the bi-valves, or was it a peculiarity of this area, with distinct summer - winter water temps/patterns
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
874. benirica
1:16 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Do you think the GFDL is over doing it?
This model typically trustworthy with strength?
I understand it hasn't developed yet, but I would believe the strength it gives it right now at 0 hours and that is usually the problem with models on invests, they dont initialize correctly.
Is there really a chance of a hurricane over Puerto Rico?
I know this has been the season for rapid intensification... but are conditions going to become that favorable?
The GFDL shows a CAT 2! WTF
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
873. MissNadia
1:13 PM GMT on October 13, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
LOL MissNadia --mE...Captn'?, maybe in my next lifetime...spouse is the
Captain in my world -- I'm the galley slave, first mate.......,(pardon
me for this)and sometimes the "booty".

swfl SURF REPORT - how
flat is flat? Lots of East winds 10-15mph. Surfer report calling for a
c-front 10/19 (?) East Coast is choppy, chunky and fun.

I am in training to be a Pyrate and therefor must show respect to the senior blog pyrate and that is you!!!!! got to go have to make some trips..LOL
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2870

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.