Norbert pounds Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2008

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An area of disturbed weather (97L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to slowly organize. Wind shear is a moderate 10-15 knots over the disturbance, and waters are warm, about 29° C. Satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass show that two circulations have developed, one near 10N 44W, and the other 400 miles to the northeast, near 13N 37W. Both circulations are elongated and disorganized. Top winds were about 35 mph.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 97L.

The forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 15-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 28-29°C. This should allow 97L to come close to tropical depression status two days from now. The fact that there are two circulations competing for the same energy and moisture will slow down development. The larger circulation near 13N 37W will probably become the dominant one. The UKMET and NOGAPS models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The storm is expected to track to the northwest over the open Atlantic, and shouldn't affect any land areas. By Wednesday, most of the models are predicting that an extratropical storm will form just north of Puerto Rico, and this storm will probably weaken 97L by bringing high wind shear.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models continue to forecast the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5-7 days from now. I put the odds of a tropical storm forming in the Caribbean next week at 30%. The potential motion of such a storm is difficult to predict at this time.

Hurricane Norbert pounds Baja
Hurricane Norbert has made landfall on the west coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Norbert was briefly a Category 3 hurricane this morning, but high wind shear has stretched the storm and opened up the eye, weakening Norbert to an upper-end Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Given that no Category 3 hurricane has hit the west coast of Baja since record keeping began in 1949, Norbert may be the strongest hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja (two Category 3 hurricanes have hit the east coast of Baja). Exceptionally warm water temperatures of 1-3°C above average helped Norbert remain strong right up until landfall.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still be a Category 1 hurricane when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Norbert this afternoon to see how intense this second Mexican landfall will be. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Since Norbert is so strong and fast-moving, it may be able to carry an unusual amount of moisture deep into the Midwestern U.S. by Monday. This could lead to flooding problems in Kansas and surrounding states early next week. A similar situation occurred in 1983, when Category 4 Hurricane Tico hit Mexico. Moisture from Tico would up in Oklahoma, where up to 16 inches of rain fell (Figure 2). The resulting flooding caused about $100 million in damage. The latest 5-day rain forecast from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 3) shows that the moisture from Norbert is expected to trigger heavy rains of up to three inches over Kansas and Nebraska over the next five days. This is probably an underestimate, and rainfall amounts in the 4-6 inch range are likely over Kansas and Nebraska over the coming week.

Links to follow:
Mexican radar
Loreto, Mexico weather
Santa Rosalia, Mexico weather


Figure 2. Total rain amounts from Hurricane Tico of 1983. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the five-day period ending Thursday, October 16, 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Odile dumping heavy rains on Mexico
Mexico has another storm to be concerned with, Tropical Storm Odile. Satellite estimates indicate Odile has dumped up to six inches of rain on the coast just east of Acapulco. Additional heavy rains of up to eight inches should affect the coast as Odile tracks along the coast, just offshore. The storm's location and intensity are difficult to gauge via infrared satellite loops, and we'll have to wait until the Hurricane Hunters arrive this afternoon before we have a good idea of Odile's strength. Odile is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 knot range the next 3-5 days. This should allow the storm to gradually intensify into a Category 1 hurricane.

Saturday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
I got this very nice email yesterday, giving appreciation for all those who helped out through the portlight.org Hurricane Ike charity effort:


I just wanted to express my sincere gratitude, on behalf of the City of Houston, the Mayor, and our community partners over at TIRR/Memorial Hermann, for all of your involvement in bringing medical supplies and equipment together to help Texans with disabilities affected by Hurricane Ike. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate the fact that you so quickly mobilized and leveraged such a tremendous amount of support to bring these needed items to Houston and other Texas cities.

An email simply doesn't do justice to the generous spirit and initiative that you, Paul Timmons, and your partners took to make this happen, nor to our gratitude. However, I just want you to know that we think about you all in appreciation every single day over here, and there are many who are directly benefiting from your generosity.

By the way, Paul Timmons mentioned that it looks like another shipment of 30-50 wheelchairs can be sent over here. All I can say is wow! Thank you for not forgetting about us, and for realizing that we still have a lot of needs here that we are trying to meet - even 4 weeks after the hurricane.

Again, please accept my sincere thanks. I hope that you have a wonderful
weekend!

Michelle Colvard, MPH
Executive Director
Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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575. KBH
5:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
the thunderstorms are finally clearing, as Orca said. Stiff breeze from the E & ESE so I guess 98L is moving thru the C Sea. 97L looks like it changed its mind and moving east.hmm.....
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
574. antonio28
5:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
573. stormwatcherCI
5:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Recon mission scheduled for 98L at 1800z on Monday
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
572. SSideBrac
5:10 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Here on Cayman Brac (S Side) "treated" to a literally sizzling lightning storm earlier this morning (Coconut tree 100 yds from house has been fried) and then some gusty squalls and heavy rains - think that there must be something in the make up of the "iron shore" and Bluff that attracts lightning - spectacular vision but scary thnder claps.
Now dull, overcast, occassional thunder boomer and just watching 98L.
Just returned from the "big city" and am amazed at how many people have got a little complacent and consider that the Season is all over - I just keep on remembering Mitch forming on Oct 14/15
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
571. MissNadia
5:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Canucks - 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Flames - 4 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
570. CapeObserver
4:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
566. KEHCharleston

Thanks. Great site. Looks like that area had 2 3.4's in the past hour. Interesting reading. Shows a fairly significant increase in activity in that area over the past few years.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
569. IKE
4:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


Heck...I just turned 50 in February....I'm older than you(OMG!)!!!!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
568. hulakai
4:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
I'm told their are some folks in this blog who can intelligently discuss tropical weather. As a lifelong tropical resident and waterfolk, I have interest in opinion, but not personalities. Is that thing 450 miles east of fla. anything worthy of mention? (certainly it is here)
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
567. hurricanemaniac123
4:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
566. KEHCharleston
4:53 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
552. CapeObserver

I am not sure

US Geo Service Earthquake Page

On this page you can see the number of tremors felt in this region.
Over 900 in 2003



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
565. extreme236
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Islands still exist and there's no possible way that it wont hit them unfortunately.


We know that...its not that he said it would be a fish storm. He is well aware that the island areas will be hit.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
564. antonio28
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Do anyone kmows of any recon mision?
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
563. Orcasystems
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


Oh oh.. umm March what?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
562. CapeObserver
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


As a fellow babyboomer, I say a resounding YES!!! And so long as we live to be 100 we still qualify as middle aged!
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
561. SWFLDigTek
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....
Now THAT scares me...
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
560. CybrTeddy
4:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
98L is predicted to be turned NE by approaching trof which will also take out 97L.

Have a great sunday! Adrian


Islands still exist and there's no possible way that it wont hit them unfortunately.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
559. presslord
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
558. txalwaysprepared
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
txalways....everyone here is making it happen...it's the power of community....


I know.. and Texans appreciate it. My neighbors and I have been making weekly trips down to San Leon (about 15 minutes from me) taking water, diapers, formula etc. They are not getting much assistance down there. So we do what we can.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
557. SWFLDigTek
4:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:

Paw!! why you arrogant little pup.. now where did I put my belt. Hold on.. umm I think Press was using it to hold in his belly for the pics?
I will take my whipping if need be, but will not retract my statement.
Maybe one day I will be defending you, another person in here I respect...
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
556. Orcasystems
4:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....

Well into your middle age maybe.. but what about now.. your past the middle of the hill stuff quite sometime ago.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
555. presslord
4:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
553. presslord
4:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
txalways....everyone here is making it happen...it's the power of community....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
552. CapeObserver
4:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
KEH, I know nothing about earthquakes. Is there a fault line or volcanic activity in that area that makes it so active?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
551. SWFLDigTek
4:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
543. SWFLDigTek 4:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting FloridaScuba:


Sounds like a great conversation for you two to have.. in PRIVATE emails.. not the blog
Thanks for the advice Paw...
But my two cents are already in, no more will be said.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
550. txalwaysprepared
4:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
press... from many of us here on the upper tx coast.. I want to say THANK YOU! You've done so much.. along with so many others.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
549. extreme236
4:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting antonio28:
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.


I doubt it will be high probability. It's not even stated as showing signs of organization yet. Just slow development.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
548. Orcasystems
4:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
543. SWFLDigTek 4:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting FloridaScuba:


Sounds like a great conversation for you two to have.. in PRIVATE emails.. not the blog
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
547. extreme236
4:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Anyway, if 97L develops its going to be a very short lived storm...GFDL and HWRF models show dissipation in a couple of days if not sooner. UKMET develops it but keeps it for just a short period of time. Vertical wind shear over it is 30 knots as well, so its questionable whether it could reach TS status, although it only takes a burst of deep convection of the low center to allow for that, but nonetheless high wind shear should prevent significant strengthening.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
546. presslord
4:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
"The proctologist called, they found your head..."

excellent....I'm gonna have to steal that and use it often.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
545. KEHCharleston
4:38 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
RE:535. CapeObserver
I would like to know about this as well. I think this
Radar from So Fla Water Management shows why the concern

537. CapeObserver This area has been active ever since I have been watching earthquakes - and that has been serveral years.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
544. SWFLDigTek
4:38 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: 531. SWFLDigTek

Oh.. Dig, the suggestion for drinks was for y'all before the viewing. ;)
Sure it was...
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
542. LostTomorrows
4:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
97L looks poised to develop today, whoaz. And 98L could be within the next few.

Nana and Omar represent!

Whenever I order pizza from my favourite pizza place, every delivery guy I get is Omar, there are like 4 of them. That name is mighty common.
Mine isn't... ish.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
541. HIEXPRESS
4:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting BajaALemt:
*Checks in during lunchbreak* Morning folks...

Ok, WHO broke CIMSS??? :p


"DATA STATUS :
(as of 12 Oct 2008 / 16:21UTC)

Due to a changeover to a new processing machine, some products and storms
in the Storm Coverage section may be temporarily unavailable.
"


Workin' & Lurkin' here...
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
540. txalwaysprepared
4:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Any educated guesses on which way 98L could go?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
539. hurricanemaniac123
4:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting antonio28:
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.


We might have Omar, too.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
538. Orcasystems
4:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting CapeObserver:


That's in the 3-4 magnitude range. Aftershock from the other day?

Yes, they had a 6.1 yesterday
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
537. CapeObserver
4:31 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Rock and Roll



Click to enlarge image


That's in the 3-4 magnitude range. Aftershock from the other day?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
536. antonio28
4:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
535. CapeObserver
4:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
I know someone has already asked but going back as far as I can I can't seem to find a response.
That blob off the east coast, east of the low off of the GAFL coast, it has really blown up. Someone, can't remember who, mentioned it earlier yesterday and they felt it had some potential even though it had yet to be mentioned.
Can someone take a look at it and give their thoughts please?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
534. Orcasystems
4:28 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Rock and Roll



Click to enlarge image
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
533. KEHCharleston
4:26 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Press, I greatly admire you willingness to do this - tis a great cause indeed.

And truth be told - I admire your figure !
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
532. KEHCharleston
4:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
RE: 531. SWFLDigTek

Oh.. Dig, the suggestion for drinks was for y'all before the viewing. ;)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
531. SWFLDigTek
4:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Words cannot do the pictures justice

I suggest a drink or two before viewing.
Why you suggesting the drinks? Not planning on asking him on a date are you?
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
530. KEHCharleston
4:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
RE: Press In A Dress

I suppose we will have to wait until Dr.M quits laughing, before the pictures are posted.

Ohh, and Press - that is quite a figure you have there
*smirk*
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
528. naplesdreamer28
4:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
That blob in the Caribbean sure is flaring up quickly this morning!
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
527. stormwatcherCI
4:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Looks like both 97L and 98L are getting better organized. Any thoughts or better read on this ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
526. extreme236
4:17 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting aspectre:
Since 97L has dual circulation, is there a possiblity that the FujiwaraEffect will shove the leading "cyclone" southward into friendlier conditions while sacrificing the trailing "cyclone" northward to higher shear and cooler waters?


The second circulation to its SW is a separate system and could possibly have a chance for development itself. 97L currently has a circulation exposed just NW of the main convective mass, but convectively the organization is fairly good. I would say today is its last chance to become a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
525. KEHCharleston
4:15 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
Dr. Masters has the dress photos...to be posted soon...

KEH and Stormjunkie have seen a sneak peak...

Either of you care to comment?


Words cannot do the pictures justice

I suggest a drink or two before viewing.

Tell your daughter she did a fine job


Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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