Powerful Norbert takes aim at Mexico's Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2008

Share this Blog
1
+

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing 5-7 days from now. The preferred genesis locations in the models are near the coast of Nicaragua, and near Puerto Rico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Norbert.

Hurricane Norbert takes aim at Baja
Hurricane Norbert has weakened since yesterday's impressive Category 4 showing, but still remains a dangerous major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Infrared satellite loops show a well-formed eye with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the cloud tops have warmed today, indicating that they are not as vigorous and do not extend as high into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear remains low, near 5 knots. The satellite appearance has not changed significantly in the past eight hours. Norbert may go through an eyewall replacement cycle today, where the main inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms. This process could cause a temporary weakening of the storm. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon.

With the exception of the GFS, the computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The GFS solution of Norbert stalling off the coast and dissipating is unrealistic. Wind shear is about 5 knots over Norbert, and the waters are a warm 28.5°C. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 2). However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of the extra heat. As Norbert approaches Baja on Friday, wind shear is expected to increase to 15 knots and sea surface temperatures will cool to 27°C. These conditions will still support a major hurricane, and it is possible that Norbert will make landfall as a major hurricane. The latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model predicts landfall Saturday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. The latest HWRF model predicts a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 95 mph winds. The official NHC forecast of a Category 2 hurricane at landfall looks like a reasonable compromise. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 6, 2008. Note the region being traversed by Norbert is 1-3 °C above average. Image credit: NOAA.

Baja hurricane history
Major hurricanes are rare on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, particularly as far north as Baja. Since record keeping began in 1949, only two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have hit Baja (Figure 3). Hurricane Kiko of 1989 hit the east coast of Baja near Buenavista, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Kiko produced destructive winds of up to 110 mph (180 km/h) in Cabo San Lucas, and caused severe damage throughout the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Oliva of 1967 made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds farther north on the east coast of Baja, in a sparsely populated area. No major hurricanes have hit the west coast of Baja since 1949, so Norbert would be the first on record if it maintains Category 3 strength at landfall.


Figure 3. Tracks of major hurricanes affecting Mexico's Baja Peninsula between 1949-2007. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.


Thursday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Today's update from Paul Timmons (Presslord) on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

While the devastating aftermath of hurricane Ike seems no longer to capture the interest of mainstream media, we all know that the needs continue. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City, TX, fire department has informed us that only 14 homes in that community (population: 8700) did not sustain ruinous water damage. Many families continue to live in tents in front of their homes, with ALL of their personal belongings piled in the yard awaiting removal.

Laura Cremans, Manager of the Churches of Christ distribution center in Bridge City tells us " Only one truck of supplies has come here since Ike made landfall. We are desperate here."

This is the list of specific needs that we are currently attaining and working to attain for the rural populations and the disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. We have worked closely with several local relief efforts as well as municipalities to identify these needs.


Undergarments
Socks
Men's & Women's Clothing (we already have a commitment for a substantial number of men's and women's pants)

Air Mattresses
Blankets/Sleeping bags
Tents
Insect repellent
All baby items
Formula (We have a commitment from Meade-Johnson to provide some of this)
Diapers
Rash cream
Wipes
Bottles


Our strategy is to focus on attaining as many of these items as possible through donations from manufacturers and distributors. In the last three and a half days, we have made several dozen contacts to this end and are beginning to get positive results; but we need your help.

If you have any contacts or influence which might facilitate us procuring the items listed above please contact us at presslord@aol.com or admin@stormjunkie.com. All your thoughts and ideas are good. The more input we have, the more impact we can have.This will help us successfully implement our strategy of expending donated funds primarily on transportation and logistics of moving donated goods. In this way, we can most effectively steward the donated funds in the most cost effective manner.

Moving forward...

Moving through October we are committed to adjusting our fund raising effort to leverage the grassroots enthusiasm and generosity generated by our Hurricane Ike relief work.  A more proactive approach will enhance our future effectiveness. We are asking you to consider committing to a monthly pledge amount.  The amount you pledge is less important then the consistency.  A dependable monthly donor base will allow us to strategically plan and prepare for the future and help us successfully execute those plans over the long term. 

Please give thoughtful, prayerful consideration to committing to a monthly pledge amount beginning November 1 and email your intentions to presslord@aol.com.

There is much work yet to be done in helping the victims of Ike. And there will certainly be other victims of other storms we can all serve. By continuing to work together as we have the last 3 1/2 weeks, we can have a profound positive impact on thousands of unserved, underserved, and forgotten people...

Also, please remember: we should all forward this information far and
wide...and frequently..

Thanks!!!!!


Figure 3. Bridge City, Texas, after Hurricane Ike. Image credit: Stormjunkie.

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 103 - 53

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

103. theshepherd
3:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
65. theshepherd

A thousand pounds of Jack Russel with hooves.

OKAY, there's a scary thought!

Ain't that the truth.
I honestly believe if a JR weighed 40 lbs he could take out a full grown cougar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
102. KEHCharleston
3:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Seastep:
We're not all just invading for the sake of invading.

Now my kids will be natives and they'll do the complaining. ;)

Awww.. y'all will be most welcomed here - if you follow these rules ;)
1)never, Never, NEVER, say "the way we did it back home was...."
2)do not call us "you people"
3)do not think that because we talk slow, we are slow

Cloudy outside, but not looking threatening yet.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
101. Bonedog
11:21 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
either that or Florida was trying to tell you something
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100. Bonedog
11:21 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
LOL Seastep you picked a great time to move to Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99. Seastep
3:17 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Oh... and moved here (N. Broward county) in summer 2004...

Think I had an warm introduction to cyclones? LOL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98. Bonedog
11:19 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Wow Seastep 10 a foot in Wayne!!!!! Yea can't beat that with a stick.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97. MissNadia
11:11 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:

LOL - Yikes

91. vortfix Thanks for the heads up

One more thing about socks,
all of you can relate to how miserable wet dirty socks can be - it is
also a health hazard. I am amazed that Red Cross did not get this.

Wet Socks= Jungle Rot!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
96. Seastep
3:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Mine was an edict from the wife....

"Do what you want, but I'm taking the kids and going with or without you."

This was after staying an extra 3 years (wife not happy) because I stumbled into an office lease that I couldn't turn down... $10/ft in Wayne, NJ... for anyone that does not know... you can't touch that. :)

P.S. There are also medical reasons w/my wife that made it the right move.....

We're not all just invading for the sake of invading.

Now my kids will be natives and they'll do the complaining. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95. KendallHurricane
3:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
i have noticed that we have a closed low level center near 40w and 16 N any thought's ?????? we have had a computer model develop something between africa and the lesser antilies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94. KEHCharleston
3:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

We Yankees have come down to collect our spoils.....

LOL - Yikes

91. vortfix Thanks for the heads up

One more thing about socks, all of you can relate to how miserable wet dirty socks can be - it is also a health hazard. I am amazed that Red Cross did not get this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93. MissNadia
11:02 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning all
Where is fall? Going to be warm, muggy and possible Tshowers.

surfmom,Folly beach surf report:Thursday 8:00am.
Waist to stomach high & pretty choppy.

Regarding relocating to southern states--

In Charleston,
We love y'all - bless your hearts, and we love when you visit ( you have been paying the rent since that late unpleasantness)
However... we are all 'full up'.
Pleas check No room...

We Yankees have come down to collect our spoils.....
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
92. KEHCharleston
3:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all

Another quick update and interesting development from yesterday.

We contacted a sock manufacturer/distributor and they informed us they would donate somewhere between 6 boxes and 6 pallets of socks. Kudos to them. The interesting part of this story and why they were so willing to help this effort was that during Katrina they donated socks to the Red Cross....The Red Cross returned the socks to them...Geezzz...

Again, not bashing all arms of the RC, but while some arms perform very well it seems others can not tell if they are scratching their head or their ...

Back to work, see y'all later


Great job
After Hugo, we went through tons of socks during the clean up. Even weeks after the storm, still getting our feet into the storm yuck. (This is of course why it is recommended that part of your hurricane preparedness kit include stout shoes)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90. StormJunkie
3:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Morning all

Another quick update and interesting development from yesterday.

We contacted a sock manufacturer/distributor and they informed us they would donate somewhere between 6 boxes and 6 pallets of socks. Kudos to them. The interesting part of this story and why they were so willing to help this effort was that during Katrina they donated socks to the Red Cross....The Red Cross returned the socks to them...Geezzz...

Again, not bashing all arms of the RC, but while some arms perform very well it seems others can not tell if they are scratching their head or their ...

Back to work, see y'all later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
89. KEHCharleston
3:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Good morning all
Where is fall? Going to be warm, muggy and possible Tshowers.

surfmom,Folly beach surf report:Thursday 8:00am.
Waist to stomach high & pretty choppy.

Regarding relocating to southern states--

In Charleston,
We love y'all - bless your hearts, and we love when you visit ( you have been paying the rent since that late unpleasantness)
However... we are all 'full up'.
Pleas check No room...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
88. Bonedog
10:55 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
why is it a waste of money? any research into these systems is valuable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
87. ATS3
2:52 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
recon flying to norbert now. waste of money...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
86. Bonedog
10:44 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
LOL That is funny Seastep calling WM a big city LOL.

Your right its amazing that NJ has places like that. Most folks think its all city and buildings.

We have a nice little gem up in the woods :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
85. Seastep
2:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Bonedog -

On a funny note about west milford... moved there from Anchorage, AK before my soph year in HS. Was excited was moving to a "big city," etc. being NJ...

LOL - Never knew such rural areas existed in N. NJ! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
84. Bonedog
10:37 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
yea Seastep thats what I love this time of year. I was a city boy my whole life (Newark) and when I met my wife she wanted to live in the country so we settled in Hewitt. So now I get the freash air and smell of the fires. Its heavenly.

When I retire I will be in SW FL at my condo running my business. LOL thats funny, retiering to run a business. Oh well spending a day on the water with fish jumping in the boat really isn't work now is it ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
83. MissNadia
10:33 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
I gotta go...doodie,doodie.doodie!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
82. Bonedog
10:36 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
80. Orcasystems 10:30 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

No Ocean...No Killer Whales!

No ocean.. no orcas.. no go


LOL thats funny right there I dont care who you are :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
81. Seastep
2:32 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
bonedog... yep...

After HS and college, lived in the princeton area, then moved back up to Bloomingdale for 8 years and am now in SE FL.

Don't miss the snow one bit, but the fall and your description is wonderful.... could actually smell that fire.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
80. Orcasystems
2:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

No Ocean...No Killer Whales!

No ocean.. no orcas.. no go
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
79. Bonedog
10:28 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
so Seastep you know exactly what I am saying ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
78. RobDaHood
10:21 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
65. theshepherd

A thousand pounds of Jack Russel with hooves.

OKAY, there's a scary thought!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. Seastep
2:26 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
actually I should clarify hewitt does not have a traffic light but the larger municipality of west milford has one light. Hewitt is a borough of west milford


I attended west milford HS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
76. MissNadia
10:26 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


But no ocean?

No Ocean...No Killer Whales!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
75. Orcasystems
2:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

That will work....nice area...nice people!


But no ocean?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
74. Orcasystems
2:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
73. MissNadia
10:21 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Greyelf:

Actually, the plan is for Tennessee in 2 or less years and counting!

That will work....nice area...nice people!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
72. Bonedog
10:15 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
oops sorry Morning MissNada I missed your post, my appologies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
71. Orcasystems
2:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting NeverPanic:
orca.....just remeber Alt 64 lol

just getting ready to go into Playa.
getting more humid everyday.

Glad to hear your getting better weather then you hoped for.. SWMBO'ed is waiting to see what you find out :)

Have fun.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
70. Greyelf
9:14 AM CDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

Come to North Carolina! we got what you want.LOL

Actually, the plan is for Tennessee in 2 or less years and counting!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
69. Bonedog
10:09 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Orca when we get that 10' snowfall I will be the one jumping up and down doing a dance in it. You'll probably be able to see my smile on the sat overpasses :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
68. NeverPanic
2:06 PM GMT on Octubre 09, 2008
orca.....just remeber Alt 64 lol

just getting ready to go into Playa.
getting more humid everyday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
67. MissNadia
10:08 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Greyelf:

I hope that my name/location never gets the chance to be talked about in regard to snowfall this winter. I hate snow and it wouldn't bother me if I never saw it again. As soon as I'm able, I'm planning to move to a warmer climate where there's actually 4 distinct seasons and snowfall is like a good houseguest - it stays for a day or 2 and then leaves. :)

Come to North Carolina! we got what you want.LOL
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
66. Greyelf
9:03 AM CDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


I put you onto my google map, hopefully we can display your nick over the winter when we talk about the massive snow storm with 10'of snow :)

I hope that my name/location never gets the chance to be talked about in regard to snowfall this winter. I hate snow and it wouldn't bother me if I never saw it again. As soon as I'm able, I'm planning to move to a warmer climate where there's actually 4 distinct seasons and snowfall is like a good houseguest - it stays for a day or 2 and then leaves. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
65. theshepherd
1:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
41. surfmom
Testing authority??? He just wants his toy. It's in his blood. Polo balls, errant cows? He's a vegetarian predator. Kinda like a Jack Russel with hooves.He wants his head.
Spent a few years heavily involved with zoo and animal park. Hoof problems megastatic. Best luck was keeping protein down around 10% which is where nature designed the animal. They eat grass. 17%, or better,diets show up when you entire their pen. If you smell heavy amonia, too much protein. Amonia is caustic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
64. MissNadia
10:03 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Hey Bonedog
I lived in River Edge for a while "back in the day" ... I don't remember Hewitt.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
63. MissNadia
9:57 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not sure I even want to figure out what that means?

Don't try!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
62. Bonedog
9:55 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
sure thing Orca the bigger the storm the better!!

BTW my home sits at 1205 feet so I get great snow when others get rain ;) For some odd reason mapquest and the like lists Hewitt as 423 feet which is down in the valley. Most of Hewitt is very hilly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
61. Orcasystems
1:55 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Out for a while - spouse provides office duties aka (doodie,doodie and the house provides domestics responsibilities...got to earn my keep..Later :)


I am not sure I even want to figure out what that means?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
60. Bonedog
9:55 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
bye surfmom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
59. Orcasystems
1:53 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
yes it is Orca. Hewitt is one of the last places in NJ where there are more trees then people. What makes it great to is we are surrounded by state parks so no more development whats there is it. People talk about one light towns.. come to Hewitt we only have one traffic light!


I put you onto my google map, hopefully we can display your nick over the winter when we talk about the massive snow storm with 10'of snow :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
58. surfmom
8:53 AM EST on October 09, 2008
Out for a while - spouse provides office duties aka (doodie,doodie and the house provides domestics responsibilities...got to earn my keep..Later :)
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
57. Bonedog
9:53 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
actually I should clarify hewitt does not have a traffic light but the larger municipality of west milford has one light. Hewitt is a borough of west milford
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
56. surfmom
8:48 AM EST on October 09, 2008
43BeanTech - LOL -- sounds like the Warhorse for you. Thx ZOO, & Firefly
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
55. WxLogic
1:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Again folks pretty strong westerlies throughout most of the gulf/caribbean at this time.

In my personal view significant development of a tropical cyclone is not there atleast in the near term.

Have a great morning! Adrian


Hehe... have a nice one Adrian.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
54. Bonedog
9:49 AM EDT on October 09, 2008
yes it is Orca. Hewitt is one of the last places in NJ where there are more trees then people. What makes it great to is we are surrounded by state parks so no more development whats there is it. People talk about one light towns.. come to Hewitt we only have one traffic light!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
53. Orcasystems
1:43 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Orca I will never complain about snow :) I love the winter its my favorite season.

I am telling you now.. you better send snow this way this winter lack of snow has put me in a stupor.


MG, I never thought anyone could be from NJ, yet live in the sticks... Hewitt, New Jersey is definitely in the sticks.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516

Viewing: 103 - 53

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
32 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron