Norbert threatens Baja; midget Marco a record-breaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2008

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The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now, but the GFS model has stopped predicting this. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing a 6-8 days from now.

Midget Marco sets a new record for the Atlantic
The hurricane season of 2008 has a new record--the kind of record we don't mind seeing! Tropical Storm Marco was the smallest tropical storm on record in the Atlantic. Records of tropical storm size only go back to 1988, so it is likely there have been other tropical storms as small as Marco in the past, though. If one looks at the maximum area covered by tropical storm force winds (in nautical miles squared, nm^2), given the radius of these winds for all four quadrants of each storm, the winners of the meekest of the meek award in the Atlantic are:

1) Marco, 2008, 1158 nm^2
2) Henri, 2001, 2238 nm^2
3) Bertha, 2002, 2827 nm^2
3) Bret, 2005, 2827 nm^2
3) Unnamed, 2006, 2827 nm^2

At Marco's peak size, tropical storm-force winds extended out 25, 15, 0, and 25 nm in its four quadrants. This means Marco covered an area of about 1,158 square nautical miles, which is slightly smaller than Rhode Island's area of 1,162 nm^2. Marco was about 1/75 as large as Ike at its peak, and 1/500 as big as the record holder, Tropical Storm Olga of 2001 (591000 nm^2, three times the size of Texas).

No casualties or damage were reported from Marco's landfall. The storm dumped up to six inches of rain along a 30-mile stretch of coast, according to satellite estimates.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Tropical Storm Marco superimposed on an infrared satellite image, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Hurricane Norbert takes aim at Baja
Hurricane Norbert put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification last night, strengthening into the season's second major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Infrared satellite loops show a well-formed eye with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants. The satellite appearance has not changed significantly in the past six hours, and Norbert may have peaked in intensity. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for Thursday afternoon.

The NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET models are tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Friday night or Saturday morning. However, the ECMWF and GFS predict Norbert will stall just offshore of Baja on Friday, and we cannot rule this possibility out yet. Wind shear is about 5 knots over Norbert, and the waters are a warm 28.5°C. As Norbert approaches Baja on Friday, wind shear is expected to increase to 15 knots and sea surface temperatures will cool to 27°C. These conditions can still support a major hurricane, and it is possible that Norbert will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. However, most of the intensity guidance predicts weakening of Norbert before landfall. The latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model predicts landfall Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds, as does the latest SHIPS model. The HWRF model, though, predicts a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds at landfall. The official NHC forecast of a Category 2 hurricane at landfall looks like a reasonable compromise. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 35-40 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Norbert.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Here's the latest update on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

The push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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556. KBH
1:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.
Present Satellite picture ... BOC
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC ... Western Caribbean & BOC flaring up(Hour 12)
CMC ... Southern PR, Atlantic (Hour 102)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 156)
CMC 00Z..
*********Special Additions*********
Hurricane Norbert ... Tracks & Cones
Hurricane Norbert ... Satellite picture

Thanks Orca, everyone seems to be ignoring my queries. B'dos is now getting thunderstorm activity and occassional gust from the east and south
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
555. SpicyAngel1072
1:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
good morning Orca
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
554. champagnedrmz
1:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Why does the NHC have it at such a low chance of development? I really don't know how to read the windshear very well but I think it looks quite favorable for development. Please correct me if I am wrong.
553. WxLogic
1:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Swath:
g'mornin Im mostly a lurker and have only posted 2 or 3 times in my 3 years here. I have a question related to the forecast discussion for my neck of the woods, Ocala, Fl...... If there is an active weather scenario for my area I usually read the FORECAST DISCUSSION. I don't always understand it but... Well maybe someone could give me a little help 2day. The phrase I am stumped on is:

"""NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KJ/KG...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH"""

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAX&product=AFD&format=CI&ver sion=1&glossary= 1

What are or is "CAPES" ???

We actually have a cyclonic circulation moving over our area . What happens if this circulation gets over water? Is it possible this circulation could continue and intensify? It IS counterclockwise.... Here is the Sat pic where it shows the spinner.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

--LOL as if anyone HERE needed directions to find that but just for convenience sake I posted it

Thanks


The cyclonic circulation you're seeing is an Mid to Upper Level Low. Nothing significant will happen if it moves over water. This is what is called a cold core low... so is not tropical in nature and is the type of low that brings the threat for Hail, Downbursts, and Tornadoes if atmospheric conditions are just right for such events.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
552. Orcasystems
12:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.
Present Satellite picture ... BOC
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC ... Western Caribbean & BOC flaring up(Hour 12)
CMC ... Southern PR, Atlantic (Hour 102)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 156)
CMC 00Z..
*********Special Additions*********
Hurricane Norbert ... Tracks & Cones
Hurricane Norbert ... Satellite picture
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
551. Bonedog
12:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
!!!!!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
550. Orcasystems
12:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Good morning everyone :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
549. Bonedog
12:52 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Swath

CAPES= Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
548. SpicyAngel1072
12:52 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
bonedog WUmail
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
547. stillwaiting
12:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
surfmom: saw the line of storms out in the gulf around sunrise and it looked amazing,I usually fish between 9am-12pm,but I do get out occasionally before 9am....we should bet some good storms moving in in a couple hrs!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
546. Bonedog
12:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Spicy the NGP and UKM sorta show what the ECM is showing put not as a truely cyclonic low but more over a general lowering of pressures in the sam area. Kinda like reading between the lines there ;)

So far the ecm has had it to the east of florida, to the west and also right up the middle. Basically its a little early to figure exact tracks but there will be ridging to both the west and east of the system so it gets squeezed north. Exactly where it goes to early, deprends on where it developes.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
545. Swath
12:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
g'mornin Im mostly a lurker and have only posted 2 or 3 times in my 3 years here. I have a question related to the forecast discussion for my neck of the woods, Ocala, Fl...... If there is an active weather scenario for my area I usually read the FORECAST DISCUSSION. I don't always understand it but... Well maybe someone could give me a little help 2day. The phrase I am stumped on is:

"""NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KJ/KG...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH"""

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary= 1

What are or is "CAPES" ???

We actually have a cyclonic circulation moving over our area . What happens if this circulation gets over water? Is it possible this circulation could continue and intensify? It IS counterclockwise.... Here is the Sat pic where it shows the spinner.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

--LOL as if anyone HERE needed directions to find that but just for convenience sake I posted it

Thanks
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
544. Bonedog
12:43 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
kewl ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
543. SpicyAngel1072
12:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Sorry about the caps... I was working and flipped over ... I will try in the future to remember to take them off.. :)

She won't take a break because she has work to get done...

At least this time they gave me someone who actually does work :) Guess I should not complain. Just that I have pulling over 80% of the workload most of this year...plus I work a 2nd job so I guess I'm just plain tired.

back to weather...I only seen one model show that development. What the general concensus on where it will go? Any predictions or guesses yet?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
542. surfmom
12:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
welcome back surfmom.. have a nice run
Dakine!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
541. surfmom
12:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Stillwaiting - just in from my run -- I went looking for you on the beach.... today #7 !! Not fishing??? Did you see how beautiful the dawn was today? to the SW there were tremendous stacked clouds being lit up by lightening, to the East the sun was rising behind a totally different cluster of clouds --lightening up the sky with such pinks -- of course the gulf was flat with a light chop -- water so turquoise -- I still can't believe after 25 plus years I have the fortune to live here!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
540. GBlet
12:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Ok, who is peeing in the Post Toaties now? Everyone, repeat after me OOOHHHMMM, OOOHHHMMM, OOOHHHMMM...
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
539. stillwaiting
12:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
surfmom yoooouve got mail!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
538. Bonedog
12:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
welcome back surfmom.. have a nice run
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
537. Bonedog
12:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
LOL Spicy.

Check your caps lock. I know you have to type in caps at work just not in the blog LOL

Sounds like you have a gun-ho kinda worker. Time to teach her what a coffee break is or how to blog on wunderground ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
536. surfmom
12:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
#508SEBFL - What do you do --roll out of bed to continue being nasty from last night? POOF
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
535. SpicyAngel1072
12:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
RIGHT NOW THEY HIRED A NEW PERSON AND I HAVE TO SUPERVISE HER AND ALSO CHECK ALL OF HER WORK AND FIX ERRORS.

IT HAS BEEN A TRYING FEW WEEKS.... SHE'S GOOD BUT NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN.

Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
534. Bonedog
12:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
exactly spicy. Thats the way I feel. The drive into work after a vacation feels like I am walking to the electric chair.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
533. SpicyAngel1072
12:33 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
bone--

I can relate. If I leave or am out 1 day I come back to total chaos and about 100 emails. Let alone if I am out for a week....I dread what I will walk into...
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
532. Bonedog
12:31 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
unfortunatly Wxlogic being we are union nothing can be done other then a stern talking too. Managment doesn't mind him so to them its no big deal, its more of a pain to me though. When I get back from vacation I will have to fix alot of messes that he caused. Nothing major but just not the way i would have done it.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
531. SpicyAngel1072
12:30 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Hi bone :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
530. stillwaiting
12:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting feldspar:
"The growing Internet weather program was given the name "The Weather Underground", a tongue-in-cheek reference to the 1960's radical group that also originated at the University of Michigan."

Tongue-in-cheek??

I wonder if they could have gotten by with a name like KKKunderground and called it tongue-in-cheek? Not a chance in hell.

Both the Weather Underground and the KKK are terrorist groups and there can be no such thing as 'tongue-in-cheek' when it comes to terrorism.

Ever notice how certain individuals on this blog jump all over the ignore button and then expect the rest of the group to 'enforce' their ignore by not quoting the ignored individual. That is known as shunning and is little more than censorship under the cover of the ignore button. Perhaps there is something to the weather underground and this group. Taking away freedom of speech seems to be one of them for sure.

Admin has every right to keep their streets clean, it is something altogether different when the rank and file starts shunning others for disagreeing with said rank and file. Terrorism comes is many different shapes and sizes...banning an individual and shunning can be considered to be inflicting terror on an individual especially when they are blindsided by it as many recently have claimed.

I know I will be banned for this and I am happy to be banned for telling the truth.



couc-coo?????ever heard of personal opinions???
YOUR POST IS POINTLESS just stay off OUR website if you don't like the way it is run,I have a little saying:don't complain unless you plan on solving the problem....now back to weather!!!!FL TC in about a week????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
529. Bonedog
12:28 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Hey Spicy.

Yea we are all talkign about it. The ECM is on it for the 3rd run now and a couple other models are starting to hint at the same
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
528. WxLogic
12:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Yea Storm 5 years with the guy as backup. I've been here 11 years starting at the bottom and working my way to where I am.

He's a good guy don't get me wrong but he's definatly not autonomus. If he is not told what to do he will just sit back in the chair and stare at the pretty colors on the screen.



He might need a bit of motivation... may be a price if he doesn't have to be told on certain job tasks.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
527. SpicyAngel1072
12:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Good morning all!!

Has anyone been talking about the one model showing a development around October 18th - 19th?

Since I am at work.. I'll be flipping back an forth :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
526. Bonedog
12:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Yea Storm 5 years with the guy as backup. I've been here 11 years starting at the bottom and working my way to where I am.

He's a good guy don't get me wrong but he's definatly not autonomus. If he is not told what to do he will just sit back in the chair and stare at the pretty colors on the screen.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
525. WxLogic
12:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting FMDawg:
What the heck? Feldspar, get a cup of coffee, it's just a weather blog.


Don't worry about it... seems we're causing Hurricanes to come to the US to bring destruction. I didn't know we had that power.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
524. WxLogic
12:18 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting BeanTech:
Good morning everyone...

Beautiful sunrise in Jupiter this morning, with the rays shooting up from behind storm clouds offshore.


Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
523. FMDawg
12:17 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
What the heck? Feldspar, get a cup of coffee, it's just a weather blog.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
518. WxLogic
12:12 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
Well....the ECMWF is forecasting something in the 7 to 10 day timeframe in the future.
I wouldn't start shuttering up yet....but it is a good solid model.

Let's see how it manages to refine its forecast and track over the next few days.


Indeed... I'm pretty sure we'll get a pretty good feel for this possible system by Sunday into Monday.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
517. Bonedog
12:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Agreed about the Euro. 3rd run is when I pay attention and with 3 other models hinting at the same, although not exactly the same, I get the picture something is going on and we better start listening
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
516. WxLogic
12:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting RJinBoyntonBeachFL:
Maybe we'll have another WILMA type event in Florida around the same time as 2005?


Well... based on the current setup... I will say that it would be a further N (SCFL or so) event since we would have a High to its E and a building hi to its W/NW. Of course this is just speculations based on the High orientation depicted by ECMWF and GFS (to some degree).
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
515. Bonedog
12:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Yes Storm Sheesh is right. After 5 years you would think he'd get a clue but alas common sense isn't so common
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
514. vortfix
12:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Well....the ECMWF is forecasting something in the 7 to 10 day timeframe in the future.
I wouldn't start shuttering up yet....but it is a good solid model.

Let's see how it manages to refine its forecast and track over the next few days.
513. RJinBoyntonBeachFL
12:05 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Maybe we'll have another WILMA type event in Florida around the same time as 2005?
Member Since: October 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
512. WxLogic
12:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
How many runs has the ECMWF been showing that?

The past 24 hours....three runs.

If the Euro is on this for three runs now....it's time to pay attention.


Hehe... with the ECMWF model I typically start paying attention after the 3rd time.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
509. vortfix
12:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2008
How many runs has the ECMWF been showing that?

The past 24 hours....three runs.

If the Euro is on this for three runs now....it's time to pay attention.
508. sebastianflorida
11:59 AM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
372 - SEBFL. Do not forget Taz is my friend, I highly respect him, best not insult him - you have far to go before you gain his knowledge and insight --- next POOF
OH, TAZ is a P.H.D., hum???????????????????????????
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
507. WxLogic
11:59 AM GMT on October 09, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Thanks IKE!

Anyone else having trouble pulling up information on the PSU eWall site? Tried clicking on some model info, and tried to get into the tropical section...got the error message, access forbidden.


Yeap... having problems accessing it to. Most likely they're doing some updates.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
506. Bonedog
11:58 AM GMT on October 09, 2008
yes I am Storm very busy.

And with me going on vacation I have to do double work to make sure everything works well while I am gone. yes there is someone replacing me while I am gone but not as versed as me, basically he can follow directions but doesn't have the forethought to get things done beforehand.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.