Mexican Bay of Campeche disturbance may become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

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A small but well-defined disturbance (96L) has moved off of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche). The low is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Visible satellite loops show a small but concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms associated with the low. A surface circulation is not evident in satellite loops, or in this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear is low, in the 5-10 knot range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Bay of Campeche disturbance, 96L. Image credit: NOAA.

The system won't be over water long, but is sufficiently well-organized that is may be able to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Landfall should occur on the Mexican coast in the southwestern Bay of Campeche, near Veracruz, tonight or Tuesday morning. However, the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model takes 96L northwestward, keeping it over water until Tuesday afternoon. This model run intensifies 96L into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall near Poza Rica late Tuesday afternoon. The topography of the southernmost Bay of Campeche often acts to spin up tropical systems, and I give this storm a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression, and a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. NHC is currently giving 96L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression. Heavy rains of 3-6 inches can be expected in a small area near where 96L comes ashore.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A small closed circulation has developed in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 13N 30W, about 400 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass. This disturbance is under about 30 knots of wind shear, which is too high for development to occur. Wind shear is expected to stay near 25-30 knots over the disturbance the next three days, which should keep it from developing. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (<20% chance) of developing.

There may be a better chance for development for a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa today. The GFS and UKMET models predict that this wave will spin up into a tropical depression by Thursday this week.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
The need is still great for relief in the regions hard-hit by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie. Contributions to this portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike (BlueFire)
Note the sandbag along the water in Gilchrist. These stretch intermittently along the gulf where the homes in Gilchrist survived. Even so, there are very few homes left in Gilchrist. The dunes are gone along HWY 87, and in many areas the water reaches the road.
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike (BlueFire)
Rollover Pass. Thankfully one lane is still able to handle traffic.
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike

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431. TheTracker08
2:38 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
wow! Thats a puny storm!! LOL
428. Bonedog
9:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
!!!!!!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
427. all4hurricanes
9:47 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Lol Marco is a wimp he not even the size of s.fla... compared to wilma...

But then again............

Small storms get stronger like andrew...

Wasn't Gustav small in the beginning but still rapidly intenified to a cat 1 before Haiti
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359
426. plywoodstatenative
9:47 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
all4, don't say that. we have relief drives going in tx. What do you think Sj and Press-in-A-Dress are up to?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
425. angiest
9:47 PM GMT on October 06, 2008


Check out the BAMM. The only model on here that has any kind of handle in this system.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
424. Bonedog
9:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
exactly plywood. I haven't even hinted at it with them. Don't need to scare the daylights out of them just yet, I'll wait till cocktails on the lani at sunset :)

yes I know Im eveil :) LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
423. Dar9598
9:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Marco could become a 80 mph winds hurricane in the next 18 hours similar to Lorenzo.
421. plywoodstatenative
9:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
hurricane shelter here you go
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
420. surfmom
9:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
413 -- I think they may be disappointed
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
419. all4hurricanes
9:44 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
all4canes thats funny a supercell beats a hurricane in size LOL

Not a hurricane yet but it is pretty ironic

Could Marco hit land then head N and eventually end up in Texas?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359
418. surfmom
9:44 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
We've got rain here in SRQ on & off - no flooding

Like the comparasion pic of FL next to Marcos -- he's a petite size....... and let's hope he stays that way----

Bonedog -- several longboards in the backroom...ready to stir up your home beach again?
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
417. Dar9598
9:44 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
we might saw a TD in the atlantic in the next 48 to 72 hours.Even that can someone show me a link
of the ridge and forecast because gfs are very bullish to develop stronger than a cat 2 hurricane recurving out the sea while the UKMET seems a lot more reasonable moving westward to west northwestward as a strong tropical storm in the next 5 days.
416. plywoodstatenative
9:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Bone, and then some.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
415. Bonedog
9:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
all4canes thats funny a supercell beats a hurricane in size LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
413. Bonedog
9:41 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
also funny is we are bringing folks with us that have nver been through a tropical system so that should be real fun.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
412. plywoodstatenative
9:41 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
cat 5, pembroke pines had over 7 inches of rain this past saturday alone.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
410. surfmom
9:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
393SWFLCAT5 -- That's what I have been wondering & why I put the board back in the house --so where's the shear???
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
409. Bonedog
9:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
plywood would bring back memories!!!

funny I might need to vacation with my go pack! LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
408. Sfloridacat5
9:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
# 400

We've been having flooding rains in my area of Ft. Myers Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
407. plywoodstatenative
9:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Bone, just think, you are going to be in my neck of the woods soon. Just think of the South Florida craziness you will see during an approaching storm. Oh yay!
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
406. Michfan
9:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Marco is growing up.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1667
405. plywoodstatenative
9:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
What I am concerned with is this. The Yucatan channel truly has remained one of those untouched areas like the Bahamas was before Ike wandered in there. I am worried over the Florida issue if a storm were to meander through that area, all of us remember Wilma. Combine Wilma with the TCHP we see now, think about it....
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
404. wadcane
9:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Thanks 394. Looking at the steering currents if Marco would have formed 60 75 miles East, the Steering current would have taken it DUE North
403. all4hurricanes
9:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

Illinois super cell wins
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359
402. Bonedog
9:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
plywood. models (all at 12z) show something in the atl in 48hrs and getting strong.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
401. plywoodstatenative
9:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
any chance of the system in the atlantic becoming anything to watch? Marco looks to be wrapping up nicely, gotta remember this is the first system really to form over the BOC.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
400. Bonedog
9:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2008


current thunderstorms over florida set alongside Marco. Same Scale LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
399. ILwatcher
9:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
390. ditto and thanks to all involved at all levels. My personal preference to support grassroots efforts will continue as you move forward with your plans. Looking forward to further details.
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
398. angiest
9:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
It would be interesting to find a sat picture for a good sized supercell thunderstorm and set it next to a picture of Marco, same scale, etc. See which one is bigger.

I have a feeling it would be close, and the thunderstorm may win.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
397. CybrTeddy
9:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
If Forrest Gump had a daughter I would think it would be named ''Fay'' Gump.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23662
396. Bonedog
9:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
its funny looking at the sat pic Marco almost fits inside a single lat/lon box LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
394. Cotillion
9:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting wadcane:
What are the steering currents for Marco? Could Marco move more NW or MMW and parallel the coast of Mexico???


Link

For 990-999mb.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
393. Sfloridacat5
9:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
What happened to all that wind shear in the BOC that would prevent 96L from developing?

Yesterday, I kept posting condition in the Yucatan with 96L (Campeche, etc) showing pressures falling, etc.

All I got in response was "wind shear will prevent development."

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
392. wadcane
9:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
What are the steering currents for Marco? Could Marco move more NW or MMW and parallel the coast of Mexico???
391. Cotillion
9:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:

marco could the smallest hurricsne ever


Already is. It has matched the record.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
390. conchygirl
9:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all, just on a fly by before cooking dinner. Wanted to give a quick update on the relief effort progress.


Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...


thanks for the update SJ and all that you have done.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
388. clowe
9:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
I've been having a queasy feeling about invest 96 for days, not lessened any by Marco's organization and strengthening. I'll be paying close attention to what happens in the next several days.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
387. weedpoet
9:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Has every tropical depression strengthened into a named storm this year? I don't think any depression failed to make it to named status.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
386. extreme236
9:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:

It already is a strong TS


I know, I'm referring to its satellite presentation.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
385. StormJunkie
9:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Afternoon all, just on a fly by before cooking dinner. Wanted to give a quick update on the relief effort progress.


Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...


Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15933
384. all4hurricanes
9:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
Marco is beginning to take on the appearance of a strong TS or minimal hurricane.

It already is a strong TS
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359
383. extreme236
9:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Marco is beginning to take on the appearance of a strong TS or minimal hurricane.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
382. bdkennedy1
9:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Marco is almost a hurricane and look how tiny that thing is!!
Member Since: July 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
381. all4hurricanes
9:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
So the circus storms this year were
Arthur the gender changing storm
Bertha the storm that wouldn't die
Dolly the storm that would not form
Fay the storm that hated Florida
Gustav defies all intensity predictions
Hanna the drunk one
Ike the Giant
Marco the Midget
Sorry if this offends someone
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.